企业如何进行长期投资决策

长期决策在各个企业和国家中的作用，各企业和各国家受其的影响而导致的一系列问题，在执行过程中会受到哪些因素的影响，计算其计算方法和企业进行长期决策中，应考虑的条件好与坏对企业利润和企业今后发展的影响，进而使人们真正的认识到对一个国家，一个企业的发展的重要性。     

SPAC融资模式的股价长期弱势效应——基于奥瑞金种业上市NASDAQ的实证研究

本文通过CAR模型分析了SPAC模式上市公司股价长期弱势的特点,并且运用多元回归分析的方法来探寻影响公司股价长期弱势的因素。结果表明,在SPAC融资机制的特殊性中,SPAC投资者的投资收益率减小而引起的套利性增大是股价长期弱势的重要原因。同时,企业经营业绩也是股价长期弱势的关键因素。而市场性因素虽然对股价长期弱势影响不显著,但也抑制了股价的转向强势的可能性。     

发达国家(地区)的老龄人口长期护理体系及其启示

由于人口老龄化,发达国家的长期护理体系正面临着成本攀升、财源短缺、信誉下降等挑战。在广泛研究与分析国内外长期护理文献的基础上,评介了发达国家应对长期护理挑战的措施,并结合中国人口老龄化问题,指出中国应尽快建立符合中国国情的长期护理体系;大力发展商业长期护理保险;采取各种预防措施控制长期护理成本增长,如强化长期护理培训、出台加快相应法律法规等。     

On the short-term effects of long-term change in cities: An efficient land markets model

This article develops a model of the determination of urban rent functions in the short-term when the housing stock is assumed fixed. The model suggests that expectations concerning the nature of long-term equilibrium play a central role in determining short-term rents. Open and closed models are discussed as alternative long-term paradigms applicable to different types of exogenous changes. The model suggests, first, that the short-term rent on housing gradient is always below the long-term gradient. Second, depending on whether land-owners have perfect or imperfect information concerning the nature of long-term equilibrium, the short-term rent gradient could signal them to rebuild the housing stock at the correct long-term density level or at too high or too low density levels.     

Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

企业控制权转移的长期绩效研究

基于财务数据法和长期持有超额收益法,本文研究了控制权转移企业的长期绩效以及影响长期持有收益的因素。实证结果表明:从长期来看,上市公司控制权转移并没有给企业绩效带来显著的改善。同时,控制权比例和行业属性对控制权转移企业长期持有超额收益率具有显著影响;相对于企业价值而言,控制权转移时机和资产整合更为重要。     

Long-term finance and entrepreneurship

This paper investigates whether long-term finance affects firm entry worldwide. We construct a new database on short- and long-term credit provided by commercial banks to the private sector in 85 countries over the period 1995–2014. We then analyze whether differences in entrepreneurship are related to the provision of short- and long-term bank credit. Data on entrepreneurship are extracted from two frequently used databases: the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring dataset and the Entrepreneurship Database, each of which captures different aspects of firm creation. The econometric results indicate that long-term credit does not stimulate firm entry. By contrast, we find that short-term credit is positively related to firm creation, from birth to registration. Controlling for potential endogeneity by implementing an instrumental variables approach does not affect our conclusions. Our findings suggest that better provision of short-term credit allows entrepreneurs to apply for formal loans instead of having to rely exclusively on informal loans or internal funds. The absence of impact of long-term loans can be explained by the difficulty entrepreneurs face in getting access to long-term credit.     

论我国房地产宏观调控的长效机制的构建

本文认为近年来我国房地产市场宏观调控的效果不够理想,原因主要在于缺乏一个房地产市场宏观调控的长效机制.本文分析了构建我国房地产宏观调控的长效机制的意叉,剖析了影响我国房地产宏观调控效果的深层次问题,并提出了构建我国房地产宏观调控的长效机制的对策和建议.     

Long-Term or Short-Term Managerial Incentive Contracts

This paper deals with the strategic role of the temporal dimension of contracts in a duopoly market. Is it better for a firm to sign long-term incentive contracts with managers or short-term contracts? For the linear case, with strategic substitutes (complements) in the product market, the incentive variables are also strategic substitutes (complements). It is shown that a long-term contract makes a firm a leader in incentives, while a short-term contract makes it a follower. We find that, under Bertrand competition, in equilibrium one firm signs a long-term contract and the other firm short-term incentive contracts; however, under Cournot competition, the dominant strategy is to sign long-term incentive contracts.     

关于价值投资投资期限的思考

文章研究了价值投资持股期限问题,并得出结论：对价值型股票,投资者不应长期持股;对无长期竞争优势的成长型股票,长期持股绩效不佳;对有长期竞争优势的成长型股票,应坚持长期持有。     

Long-term Unemployment and the Labour Market: some further results

In a previous Briefing Paper we discussed the current high rate of long-term unemployment. We described the process by which the ratio of long-term unemployment to total unemployment was determined and suggested some explanations for the rapid rise in long-term unemployment since 1980. We also investigated the role of long-term unemployment in shifting the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. In this Briefing Paper we extend our study to consider the relationship between unemployment and inflation. In particular we discuss the apparent failure of high unemployment to affect the growth of real wages. Finally we compare some policies for reducing unemployment.     

房地产行业上市公司流动性分析

文章利用流动性比率指标体系,对我国沪、深两市房地产上市公司2002~2005年的短期偿债能力及相应的流动性风险进行分析。结果表明,房地产行业的整体流动性水平较弱,存在着用短期资金满足长期资金需求的情况,长期融资不能满足永久性流动资金的需求。     

Property Rights Protection of Biotechnology Innovations

Protection of intellectual property embedded in self-replicating biological innovations, such as genetically modified seed, presents two problems for the innovator: the need for copy protection of intellectual property and price competition between new seed and reproduced seed. We consider three regimes in two periods with asymmetric information: short-term contracts, biotechnological protection, and long-term contracts. We find that piracy imposes more intense competition for seed sales than does durability alone. Technology protection systems yield highest firm profit and long-term contracts outperform short-term contracts. Farmers prefer, in order, long-term, short-term, and biotechnical protection. Depending on monitoring cost, long-term contracts may be socially preferred to short-term contracts, with both preferred to biotechnical protection.     

我国长期护理保险发展的模式探索

随着我国人口老龄化进程的加快、家庭结构的变化及医疗费用的不断上升,老年人的长期健康护理逐渐成为了一个重大的社会问题,如何建立适合我国国情的长期护理保险制度模式已迫在眉睫。我国长期护理保险的发展不能照搬别国模式,必须从我国国情出发。从长远来看,我国长期护理保险的发展模式应从商业保险为主、社会保险为辅的近期模式逐渐过渡到以社会保险为主、商业保险为辅的远期模式。     

国内外黄金市场收益长记忆性比较研究\n——基于重标方差分析法

利用重标方差分析法,对比研究英国伦敦和中国上海黄金市场收益的长记忆性的结果表明：对于不同的q值,国内外黄金市场日收益率都存在显著的长记忆性。相比较而言,英国伦敦黄金市场日收益率的长记忆性更强。产生这一现象的深层原因在于我国黄金价格形成机制受到了较多的政府调控,而并不能简单地说我国黄金市场的效率高于英国伦敦黄金市场。     

Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets

This paper examines the long-term impact and short-term dynamics of macroeconomic variables on international housing prices. Since adequate housing market data are generally not available and usually of low frequency we apply a panel cointegration analysis consisting of 15 countries over a period of 30 years. Pooling the observations allows us to overcome the data restrictions which researchers face when testing long-term relationships among single real estate time series. This study does not only confirm results from previous studies, but also allows for a comparison of single country estimations in an integrated equilibrium framework. The empirical results indicate house prices to increase in the long-run by 0.6% in response to a 1% increase in economic activity while construction costs and the long-term interest rate show average long-term effects of approximately 0.6% and ?0.3%, respectively. Contrary to current literature our estimates suggest only about 16% adjustment per year. Thus the time to full recovery may be much slower than previously stated, so that deviations from the long-term equilibrium result in a dynamic adjustment process that may take up to 14 years.     

To have and to hold: modelling the drivers of employee turnover and skill retention in Australian organisations

This paper examines the determinants of employee turnover and long-term skill retention in Australian organisations. Three new perspectives are examined: the difference between short-run turnover and long-term retention; the role of different high performance work systems philosophies and human resource practices; and an examination of turnover for various groups of employees based on skill level. The results suggest that the role of learning within organisations is of fundamental importance in reducing short-run turnover and improving long-term skills retention. A series of training and human resource practices have also been found to be important for individual-specific skill categories, but general conclusions for all skill categories cannot be readily made. Finally, different drivers to short-term turnover maybe at play when retention is considered from a long-term strategic perspective.     

企业长期激励机制创新

长期激励机制匮乏问题一直是我国理论界和实业界最为关注的核心问题。指出目前在我国实行的长期激励措施的不足,提出了以“股息期权”,代替“股票期权”的激励方案,从而有效解决了我国目前的资本市场和法律法规对于“长期激励形式”的约束,可以为现阶段企业管理者进行薪酬激励机制设计时提供重要的参考和借鉴。     

机构投资者持股与企业短贷长投：抑制还是促进？

利用2007—2019年A股上市公司的年度数据,针对中国上市公司短贷长投这一现象,研究了机构投资者在其中发挥的作用。研究发现,机构投资者持股使得上市公司进行了更多的短贷长投,且该效应在非国有企业中更加明显。进一步研究发现,只有当机构投资者为非独立型机构投资者时,这种促进作用才显著,且机构投资者数量同样加剧了企业短贷长投。从短贷长投视角考察机构投资者对上市公司债务风险的影响,为治理上市公司短贷长投行为和进一步推动独立型机构投资者发展、完善机构投资者监管提供了参考。     

A causal model for the development of long-term facilities: a case in Taiwan

Elder care is an important issue in many developed countries such as U.S., Japan, and Taiwan. With the advent of population aging throughout the world, the development of long-term care facilities has become a very vital topic. In actuality, long-term care systems involve government oversight agencies as well as interaction between factors such as laws, social environment, culture, long-term care facilities, residents, and the families of residents, forming a complex and dynamic system. This paper uses system dynamics methodology to model the developmental structure of Taiwanese long-term care facilities to explore its system behaviors. The developmental structure of long-term care facilities in Taiwan is primarily composed of the four levels: overall satisfaction, overall service quality, the skill of administrative and medical care personnel and facility hardware resources. Time delay, complex, and dynamic relationships are present in the overall structure. The overall service quality of facilities is one of the most important factors in facilities’ development and that the skills of administrative and medical care personnel is the main critical factor in improving overall service quality. Finally, some suggestions are discussed relevant strategies for the government and the industry.