Capital Expansion, Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment

A model is developed, which captures the interactions of unemployment and economic growth in general equilibrium. The economy evolves along a correct-expectations equilibrium path exhibiting endogenous job rationing, and productivity growth is driven by installation of new capital. Under the maintained hypothesis that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is less than unity, unemployment benefits are shown to shift up the whole path of equilibrium unemployment, leaving the economy with a higher natural rate of unemployment and lowering the long-run growth rate permanently. Investment tax credits financed by lump sum taxes on total income are capable of lowering the natural rate and raising the economy's growth rate.     

The Division of Labor, Inequality and Growth

We present a model that links the division of labor and economic growth with the division of wealth in society. When capital market imperfections restrict the access of poor households to capital, the division of wealth affects individual incentives to invest in specialization. In turn, the division of labor determines the dynamics of the wealth distribution. A highly concentrated distribution of wealth leads to a low degree of specialization, low productivity, and low wages. In that case workers are unable to accumulate enough wealth to invest in specialization. Hence, in a highly unequal society, there is a vicious cycle in which the degree of specialization, productivity and wages stay low, wealth and income inequality stays high and the economy stagnates. By contrast, greater equality increases investment in specialization and leads to a greater division of labor and higher long run development.     

Long-Run Effects of Monetary Expansion in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the long-run effects of monetary expansion by introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into one of the basic models of endogenous growth. In our model, the real side of the economy consists of two production sectors, one of which produces a final good that can be used either for consumption or for investment and the other produces new human capital. Both sectors use physical and human capital under constant returns to scale technologies. We first characterize the balanced-growth equilibrium and then examine how a rise in money growth affects the relevant variables, such as the long-term growth rate and the relative prices.     

累进性劳动所得税、失业波动与内生稳定器——一个动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

将累进性劳动所得税引入NKMP—DSGE模型中考察失业波动与累进性税收的宏观效应。贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,外生冲击对于就业与失业具有不同的冲击效应,因而忽略失业可能引起结论的偏误;失业的贝叶斯冲击分解结果表明,货币政策冲击是推动我国失业波动最重要的力量,并且我国劳动力市场存在显在的“失业回滞”。进一步,通过模型比较发现,累进性劳动所得税具有内生稳定器的作用。在失业问题日益严峻的背景下,采用对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制以降低失业,并使用内生稳定器缓和经济波动,将可能实现降低失业与缓和经济波动的双重效果。     

我国失业原因新解:分工不足

本文以新兴古典经济学思想的基本要义——分工理论为分析基础，从一个新的视角探讨了我国失业产生的根本原因，并蕴含明确的政策含义，即以推进分工来消除失业。     

公共物品、分工演进与经济增长

在新兴古典经济学框架内,公共物品既能通过提高交易效率来促进分工演进并最终带来经济增长,也可通过改善劳动效率直接促进产出的增加,经济增长中的两难冲突发生于专业化经济和公共物品对劳动时间这一资源的争夺,资源的最终分配取决于三个重要的经济参数即专业化经济系数、公共物品的交易效率系数和劳动效率系数的大小和变化情况。文章最后从历史经验的角度来论证主要结论的正确性。     

Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment in a North–South Model

A North–South model is developed which incorporates an endogenous rate of equilibrium unemployment in the North in the context of long-run growth. It is shown how increases in the size of public debt and unemployment compensation financed by payroll taxation, all measured relative to productivity, raise the Northern natural rate of unemployment and, consequently, reduce the global rate of long-run growth. The effect of the shocks is also to drive down the rate of employment expansion in the South. A set of the fundamental determinants of the world terms of trade is obtained, which includes policy parameters.     

工人离职、失业波动与失业保险文献评述

失业不仅涉及失业波动的影响,还包括在职工人的离队。为减少工人搜寻过程中产生的负外部性,应降低工人的信息成本。失业保险政策的实施又降低了失业工人再就业的激励性,应确立有效的失业保险水平,实现产出与社会福利的最大化。     

Labor Market Integration, Unemployment, and Transfers

Integration of the labor markets between a rich country (North) and a poor country (South) often leads to high unemployment in the South and transfers from North to South; for instance: United States versus Puerto Rico, West versus East Germany, Northern versus Southern Italy. This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which workers finance a transfer to the unemployed in the South in order to limit migration. In addition, it extends the framework to consider: the difference in efficiency between natives and immigrants, taxes on fixed factors in the North with internal transfers, and subsidies to the employed in the South.     

技术范式创新、价值网络重构与内生分工优势协同演进

依据产品市场需求变化的一般特征,探究了技术范式创新及其实现条件;依据技术范式轨迹转移对嵌入在产品结构体系中企业排序的影响,探究了技术范式创新下价值网络重构;根据市场交易效率对价值网络重构下企业内生分工演进的影响,探究了内生分工企业比较优势提升问题。最后,总结性揭示了技术范式创新、价值网络重构与内生分工优势的协同演进机理。     

The Cyclical Properties of Unemployment and Vacancies in Taiwan

This paper examines the quantitative performance of the standard search and matching model in explaining the cyclical behaviour of Taiwan's labour market. Although the model accounts well for the data in some dimensions, simulated volatility is counterfactually very low, as pointed out in Shimer (2005) for the US labour market. Nevertheless, calibrated to Taiwan's data, the model explains a higher proportion of the observed volatility than the Shimer (2005) results, due to a higher parameter value for leisure; if an extremely high value is assumed, the model explains substantially better, but still partially, the volatility in Taiwan.     

经济一体化、产业分工与失业

本文建立了产业分工架构,分析工业国家非技术劳工工资与失业问题。产业分工程度内生决定于经济一体化(即市场扩大)型态:在一体化市场内,若技术劳动成长率大于非技术劳动增幅,制造业产业分工程度将加深;反之,产业分工程度降低。产业分工程度加深促使非技术劳工工资上升、失业率下降,并未如预期会威胁工业国家非技术劳工。值得注意的是,既使产业分工程度加深、非技术劳工失业率下降,亦可能出现非技术劳工失业量上升现象。     

Gender Equality and Long-Run Growth

This research suggests that long-run economic and demographic development in Europe can be better understood when related to long-term trends in gender equality, dating back to the spread of Christianity. We set up a growth model where gaps in female-to-male human capital arise at equilibrium through a coordination process. An economy which over a long stretch of time re-coordinates on continuously more equal equilibria—as one could argue happened in Europe—exhibits growth patterns qualitatively similar to that of Europe.     

原始工业化时期的劳动分工与社会分工

中国的原始工业化发生在明清时期,在这一时期,以传统家庭经营制度为基础的乡村手工业迅速增长,不仅市场范围空前扩张,生产组织形式逐渐演进,而且劳动分工、专业分工、社会分工和劳动生产率都发生了诸多的变化。家庭内部"男耕女织"的传统劳动分工模式被打破,行业内部的专业化分工更加细密,城乡之间的社会分工也有了新的发展,但由于技术进步迟缓和人口增长过快等因素的影响,人均的产量和劳动生产率并不高,即出现了斯密化增长与过密化增长交织并存的现象,并对后来的近现代乡村工业化形成了深刻的影响。     

Fiscal Transfers and Distributive Conflict in a Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Unemployment

Abstract. In the simplified formal treatment proposed in this paper, a decrease in a policy parameter – the ratio of total tax revenues to GDP – can monotonically increase long-term growth rate and may lead to a higher employment level. This notwithstanding, the paper shows that the redistributive implications of such a decrease may induce the wage earners to oppose it. As a consequence, policy-makers reflecting social preferences may undertake redistributive transfers generating persistent unemployment and lowering growth even if commitment technologies allowing them to follow preannounced tax policies were feasible.     

垄断、分工与市场

中国的国有企业一直面临着垄断的指责,但这种指责却是极其模糊和偏颇的。本文从时间与空间对垄断的概念进行界定,认为垄断是一种相对而非绝对的状态,其基础源于分工,是一个在与市场的相互作用下不断扩张的过程。笔者认为,从这种理论概念的澄清上可以看出,对于国有企业而言,绝大部分对于垄断的指责是偏颇的,也是不符合现实的。     

Uncertainty, Insurance, and Division of Labor

This paper develops an equilibrium model to investigate the relationships between transaction uncertainties, risk aversion, insurance, specialization, per capita real income, and productivity progress. It is shown that transaction uncertainties can restrict the division of labor; the level of division of labor decreases with the degree of risk aversion; insurance will promote the equilibrium level of division of labor, per capita real income, and productivity.     

不完全劳动市场、政府干预与失业率

本文针对我国不完全的劳动市场,建立了一个短视一搜寻模型,目的是要说明,第一,虽然政府直接干预下的就业率高于无政府干预的劳动市场的均衡就业率,但是后者的社会总福利水平高于前者,而且,无政府干预情形下失业者的福利水平不会低于政府干预时在低工资岗位上的就业者的福利水平.这说明政府直接干预劳动市场虽然有可能降低失业率,但可能导致整个社会福利损失,也不利于提高低收入人群的福利水平.第二,我国现行的社会保障制度、户籍制度以及地方保护政策妨碍城乡劳动力自由流动,造成城市居民一般占据了工资较高的岗位,农村居民一般只能找到工资较低的岗位.这种匹配过程达到的劳动市场均衡,虽然有可能最大限度降低城镇失业率,但不是使得全国总失业率最低的均衡.     

Division of Labor, Money, and Economic Progress

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to formalize Adam Smith's insight on the relationship between the division of labor, the emergence of money, and economic progress. The model demonstrates that the division of labor is the driving force behind the emergence of money, and the use of money in turn stimulates further division of labor. It also shows that the use of money substitute can improve welfare.