The Five-Year Outlook as metaphor for technology forecasting and social change

The National Science and Technology Policy Organization and Priorities Act of 1976, which mandated the Five-Year Outlook, is considered as a doctrine of anticipation to coalesce the federal bureaucracy in order to engage the future and to determine, as a community, its long-term priorities. The Outlook is thus a symbol of a broader process of managing technology to produce, over time, socially satisfactory outcomes that will not be squeezed out by short-term needs. The article argues that to transfer preparation of the Outlook back to OSTP would add immensely to the stature and influence of the report.     

Information technology innovation in India: The top 100 IT firms

Patents serve as an indicator of the innovation capability of countries, industries, or firms. Many Indian firms are in a transition to move from labor intensive segments to areas with higher value added which has been reflected in this research. The purpose of this study is to analyze patents issued during the period of 1997–2009 from the European Patent Office database and the United States Patent and Trademark Office database from the top one hundred Indian information technology firms. This study represents a novel empirical look at information technology industry innovations in India. A comprehensive set of statistical patent analyses are presented to provide practitioners with valuable knowledge to assist in business strategic planning.     

Get ready for the L-bomb: A preliminary social assessment of longevity technology

The societal impacts upon various sectors of the United States population resulting from the retardation of the cellular aging process in men and women is the subject of this study. Significant biomedical research advances of recent years, as well as future fruitful areas of bio-science exploration in genetic programming, parabiosis, vitamin therapy, body temperature control, calorie quality and quantity intake, and the control of free radicals in body compounds, indicate the life span of the present generation may be expanded by a considerable number of years. The potential impact upon various sectors of our societal structure and institutions would be enormous. This study proposes to evaluate and assess the impact of the resultant population alteration upon seven major social variables (employment, income, resource consumption, education, the social service load, social institutions, and legal problems). This will be analyzed over a number of ten year time segments.The study will attempt to determine the effects of longevity technology upon the social impact variables within the framework of five basic working lifetime scenarios as follows: (1) normal working lifetime, (2) extended working lifetime, (3) delayed working lifetime, (4) segmented working lifetime, and (5) divided working lifetime. Two computer models of the United States—a demographic and an econometric—will be used to systematically measure the implications of these scenarios for the social impact variables.     

Design of randomized experiments to measure social interaction effects

We consider randomized experiments with two levels of randomization for measuring social interaction effects. We examine how the randomization should be carried out to estimate the coefficients of interest most precisely.     

Social experiments in the development of environmental technology: a bottom-up perspective

In the development implementation of environmental technologies, many initiatives are taken by citizen groups and non-governmental organizations, outside the institutional structures of firms and governments. These initiatives are calied social experiments. Based on three case studies, this paper explores the emergence, organizational structure and innovation processes of these social experiments, and their contribution to the development of environmental technologies as a whole.     

Forecasting the need for coins: A case study for The Netherlands

This paper presents short-term and long-term forecasts of the coin circulation in The Netherlands by denomination. The short-term forecasts are obtained with ARIMA models. The long-term forecasts are derived from predictions on the long-term demand for currency along with assumptions on the distribution over notes and coins.     

Information provision and preferences for education spending: Evidence from representative survey experiments in three countries

Do citizens' preferences about education policies differ across industrialized countries? To gain comparative evidence on public preferences for education spending, we conduct representative experiments with information treatments in Switzerland using identical survey techniques previously used in Germany and the United States. In Switzerland, providing information about actual spending and salary levels reduces support for increased education spending from 54 to 40 percent and for increased teacher salaries from 27 to 19 percent, respectively. The broad patterns of education policy preferences are similar across the three countries when the role of status-quo and information are taken into account.     

Regulation as a means for the social control of technology

The argument that regulation is a necessary, though controversial, component of technology policy is discussed in detail. Ib addition to the regulation of technology, various other regulatory policies, such as market regulation, affect the development of technology. Various types of direct regulation and their conditions of operation are discussed. It is shown that regulation can afect technological innovation positively by providing a surrogate market. The paper serves as an introduction to this special issue and shows how the different contributions fit into a general framework of regulatory effects on technolgy. Regulation as a factor in competition is discussed, particularly in the context of developing countries.     

On the role of social wage comparisons in gift-exchange experiments

This study extends a bilateral gift-exchange experiment by Clark et al. (2010). We investigate how the provision of either quantitative or qualitative information on the average wage paid in all worker-employer relationships impacts the wage set by employers and worker performance. We find that information on the average wage reduces (increases) both wage offers and effort levels in one-shot (repeated) relationships.     

Information technology: Anatomy of a successful european collaboration

Europe is betting on a two-pronged stategy to revers the dwindling fortunes of its information technology (IT) industry in the world market. This is the completion of of the single European market by 1993, together with the promotion of R&D collaboration between European IT companies and research institutions. This paper examines why Europe is collaborationg in IT and looks in detail at the way this is happening in practice. It asks: How is it that institutions from different countries come together and generate new technologies which are genuinely European? A successful European collaborative computer project provides the focus foa the discussion. The main exphasis is on showing why the collaboration took place, what major conflicats affected the development of the project, how they were solved and how the solution of the conflicts was reflected in the actual shape of the technology produced.     

Information technology: Anatomy of a successful european collaboration

Europe is betting on a two-pronged stategy to revers the dwindling fortunes of its information technology (IT) industry in the world market. This is the completion of of the single European market by 1993, together with the promotion of R&;D collaboration between European IT companies and research institutions. This paper examines why Europe is collaborationg in IT and looks in detail at the way this is happening in practice. It asks: How is it that institutions from different countries come together and generate new technologies which are genuinely European? A successful European collaborative computer project provides the focus foa the discussion. The main exphasis is on showing why the collaboration took place, what major conflicats affected the development of the project, how they were solved and how the solution of the conflicts was reflected in the actual shape of the technology produced.     

Economic evaluation of healthcare technology improving the quality of social life: the case of assistive technology for the disabled and elderly

Public investments in healthcare technology for the disabled and elderly to improve the quality of social life have been vigorous, but the economic evaluation of the assistive technology is still lacking. Under this circumstance, the purpose of this study is to analyse the socio-economic value of developing assistive technologies with the potential to improve the quality of social life, especially for disabled and elderly individuals. Based on a survey of 400 respondents, the spike model, a special form of the contingent valuation method (CVM) is applied to assess the value of assistive technologies. In Korea, a household’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the development of assistive technologies is US$4.26 per year, on average, in the form of a government-levied tax; although many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies, people with higher household savings, higher levels of education and higher levels of charity donations have a higher WTP for the development of assistive technology. We conclude that although assistive technologies have considerable economic value many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies. Therefore, political and social educational efforts are necessary to reach social consensus on the government investment in such technologies.     

Beyond baseline and follow-up: The case for more T in experiments

The vast majority of randomized experiments in economics rely on a single baseline and single follow-up survey. While such a design is suitable for study of highly autocorrelated and relatively precisely measured outcomes in the health and education domains, it is unlikely to be optimal for measuring noisy and relatively less autocorrelated outcomes such as business profits, and household incomes and expenditures. Taking multiple measurements of such outcomes at relatively short intervals allows one to average out noise, increasing power. When the outcomes have low autocorrelation and budget is limited, it can make sense to do no baseline at all. Moreover, I show how for such outcomes, more power can be achieved with multiple follow-ups than allocating the same total sample size over a single follow-up and baseline. I also highlight the large gains in power from ANCOVA analysis rather than difference-in-differences analysis when autocorrelations are low.     

The need for an industrial policy in the transition: Questions and challenges

Conclusions The wide set of objectives and the employment of very diversified policy instruments gave to the industrial policy in the transitional economies, a very specific importance and responsibility for establishing a link between the macroeconomic policy and the adjustments at structural level.The policy issues analysed reveal that there is the necessity of a non-rigid and dogmatic approach, adapting the policies and tools to the rapid changes underway. The long-term perspective, in terms of strategies for new growth patterns, has to be modulated with the short-term targets, that have to face the contingent constraints: the role of the industrial policy is also that of establishing a close relation between the two moments, softening the emergence of trade-offs. The constraints, in particular financial, remain substantial and the process of adjustment cannot be without pain.In this framework the main question concerns the capacity of the government in improving its ability to establish the main outlines and to implement them efficiently: a process oflearning by doing has already started and is improving rapidly.     

The social costs of unemployment: accounting for unemployment duration

This article contributes to the literature on unemployment and well-being by investigating the linkage between personal life satisfaction and a macroeconomic indicator of the duration of unemployment. Using data for more than 50?000 individuals in 10 European countries, 1992–2002, we find that the social costs of unemployment, in terms of general unemployment's impact on life satisfaction, relate significantly and to a considerable extent to unemployment duration. It is thus not just the risk of becoming or staying unemployed that people worry about, but especially the prospect of staying long-term unemployed. This fear affects employed and unemployed people alike. Our findings provide a strong point for focusing labour market policies on long-term unemployment, in addition to considerations of human capital depreciation.