The investment development cycle revisited

Zusammenfassung Nochmals zum Zyklus von Auslandsinvestitionen und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. - In diesem Aufsatz wird die Neigung der Entwicklungsl?nder, im Ausland Direktinvestitionen vorzunehmen, zu erkl?ren versucht. Der Hauptunterschied zwischen ausl?ndischen Direktinvestitionen von multinationalen Unternehmen (MNU) mit Sitz in Industriel?ndern und solchen von MNU mit Sitz in Entwicklungsl?ndern besteht darin, da\ die MNU der Industriel?nder aus ihrer Eigentümerposition vielfach Nutzen ziehen, indem sie eine Reihe von Aktivit?ten in übersee internalisieren, w?hrend die MNU der Entwicklungsl?nder haupts?chlich individuelle und einmalige Vorteile ihrer Aktiva aussch?pfen. Da die letzteren in der Regel landesspezifische Eigenschaften und die ersteren firmenspezifische Faktoren reflektieren, ergibt sich, da\ das Muster der Auslandsinvestitionen von MNU der Entwicklungsl?nder eher durch Modelle der Faktorausstattung als durch Modelle des Marktversagens zu erkl?ren ist. Au\erdem gibt es bis jetzt nur wenige MNU mit Sitz in Entwicklungsl?ndern, die integrierte Strategien verfolgen; dieses Verhalten ist gew?hnlich einem sp?teren Entwicklungsstadium vorbehalten, in dem die MNU eines Landes bereits ein Netz von Zweiggesellschaften in übersee besitzen.

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Résumé Le cycle de développement d’investissement revu. - Cet article essaie d’expliquer la tendance des pays en voie de développement à s’engager à l’investissement étranger direct. La différence principale en caractère de l’investissement étranger par des entreprises multinationales du premier et troisième monde (EMNs) est que les EMNs du premier monde dérivent beaucoup de leurs avantages de propriété d’une internalisation d’une série d’activités d’outremer séparées pendant que les EMNs du troisième monde exploitent au premier lieu les avantages d’actif individuels et uniques. Les EMNs du troisième monde probablement reflètent des qualités qui sont spécifiques du pays pendant que ceux du premier monde reflètent des facteurs qui sont spécifiques de l’entreprise. L’auteur conclut que la structure de l’investissement étranger par les EMNs du troisième monde peut être expliquée plutót par un modèle de dotation en facteurs de production que par un modèle de non-fonctionnement du marché. De plus, il n’y a que peu de EMNs du troisième monde qui appliquent des stratégies intégrées; une telle stratégie est normalement appliquée dans une phase plus tard du cycle de développement si les EMNs d’un pays disposent déjà d’un réseau établi des sociétés affiliées étrangères.

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Resumen Una revisón del ciclo inversión-desarrollo. En este trabajo se intenta explicar la propensidad de los países en vías de desarrollo a ofrecer inversiones directas en el extranjero. La diferencia más importante entre el carácter de la inversión extranjera por parte de empresas multinacionales (EMN) del Tercer y del Primer Mundo es que mientras que las EMN del Primer Mundo derivan muchas de sus ventajas de propiedad de una serie de actividades desarrolladas en el extranjero, las EMN del Tercer Mundo se concentran en explotar las ventajas individuates y únicas de sus activos. Como estas últimas m?s bien reflejan las caracterfsticas especfficas de los países y las anteriores los factores específicos de las empresas, el patrón de inversiones extranjeras de las EMN des Tercer Mundo resulta ser explicable a partir del modelo de dotación de factores y no tanto como caso de “market failure”. Por otra parte, hasta ahora sólo pocas EMN del Tercer Mundo se valen de estrategias integradas. Estas suelen reservarse para una etapa posterior del desarrollo económico, en la cual las EMN de un país han logrado establecer una red de sucursales en el extranjero.

     

Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan

This paper examines the effect of public investment on macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan by comparing the effects of central and local government investments. Impulse response functions show that central government investments slightly but persistently stimulate industrial production, while local government investments have no positive impact on business cycles. In terms of policy effectiveness, these results suggest that the Japanese government should not employ local public sector investments as a policy instrument for economic stabilization.     

投资养老业商机多多

9月13日,中国政府网发布了《国务院关于加快发展养老服务业的若干意见》.意见指出,加快发展养老服务业,不断满足老年人持续增长的养老服务需求,是全面建成小康社会的一项紧迫任务,有利于保障老年人权益,共享改革发展成果,有利于拉动消费、扩大就业,有利于保障和改善民生,促进社会和谐,推进经济社会持续健康发展.同时,意见明确了养老服务业发展目标:即到2020年,全面建成以居家为基础、社区为依托、机构为支撑的,功能完善、规模适度、覆盖城乡的养老服务体系.养老服务产品将更加丰富,市场机制将不断完善,养老服务业将持续健康发展.     

China's investment and rate of return on capital revisited

We revisit China's suspected overinvestment problem by examining the rate of return on capital from two perspectives. First, we find that two existing methods of estimating the rate of return generate conflicting results, and we succeed in reconciling them. Our revised estimates show that the rate of return rose sharply from 1998 to 2014, which helps explain the strong investment drive. Second, we explore what caused the rate of return to rise. We find the explanation lies mainly with the long-term factor of rising total factor productivity but that the short-term cyclical factor of low real interest rates has also contributed.     

我国海外投资保险业务分析探讨

中国信保开办海外投资保险业务,结束了我国海外投资保险业务缺位的历史,标志着我国海外投资保险机制的初步建立。然而由于现有条件的限制,相对发达国家较为成熟的海外投资保险制度,我国海外投资保险起步晚,业务量小,尚有许多方面有待改进。     

招商引资——税收减免竞赛

近年来,地方政府超出法律范围制定优惠政策尤其是税收优惠政策来吸引客商的现象时有发生,给我国带来了消极影响。税收在招商引资工作中应如何发挥作用成了摆在我们面前的一个重大问题。十六届三中全会提出的科学发展观对我国各项事业的发展都具有普遍的指导意义。本文正是从科学发展观的要求出发,重新定位了税收在招商引资工作中的角色,并试着提出了相应的措施。     

浅析创业板市场的证券公司直接投资业务

随着中国创业板市场的条件和时机日渐成熟,创业板将于近期在深交所正式推出,多层次资本市场的快速发展对投融资的需求将会日益旺盛,这将为证券公司直接投资的发展带来了新的重大机遇而从国际投行业市场的发展历程来看,直投业务将是投资银行未来发展的方向。因此,必须改变国内券商以传统业务为主的发展模式,以创业板市场为主体,大力发展直投业务,拓宽盈利渠道,提升管理水平和核心竞争力,促进资本市场的进一步完善与发展。     

What has happened to small business investment spending?

Conclusions Thoughtful citizens are rightfully concerned about the apparent sluggishness of total investment spending. Perhaps they should also be worried about who is doing the investing; the evidence presented in this paper indicates that in manufacturing there has been an increasing dominance by the largest 1000 firms during the last 15 years. This is due to an increasing share for the larger firms in total sales and to their relatively easier access to credit. While the regression results are significant, much more work needs to be done if we are to have an entirely satisfactory explanation of this phenomenon. If these results are confirmed, they will raise serious issues for public policy. Our nation's leadership in economic affairs and the high standard of living enjoyed by its citizens are largely a result of high productivity and technical change. No doubt our national mythology ascribes too important a role to the individual entrepreneur, but it is important that this avenue to progress be kept open. The largest firms have impressive talent and facilities, but they are not omnicient: Western Union was not interested in the telephone, and Kodak initially passed up instant photography. We will all pay if the economic or financial structure of the economy fails to offer support to those individuals, rare though they may be, who possess profound ideas but only modest finanial resources.     

企业营救:投资银行业务新领域

本文系统地介绍了企业营救的概念、形式及特征 ,对投资银行作为资本市场的一种高级中介机构 ,在拓展企业营救业务上的独特优势和可能途径进行了分析和论证 ,指出了投资银行开展企业营救的重要意义。     

Ease of doing business and investment among West African countries

This study assessed the link between ease of doing business (EBD) and investment among 11 selected countries in West Africa covering 2006–2020. The study used the fixed-effects estimator, the random-effects estimator, the augmented mean-group method, and the Half-Panel Jackknife Wald-type test. The study found a bidirectional relationship between the EBD and foreign direct investment (FDI) and a unidirectional relationship running from EBD to domestic investment. The findings further revealed that the EBD and national income have a strong influence in determining the level of domestic investment and FDI inflows, and that some indicators of EBD, such as the procedure for starting a business, access to credit facilities, tax, and security threats, discourage domestic investment and FDI inflows, in contrast to the influence of obtaining electricity and national income on investment. The study suggests that West African governments reduce taxes, ease the procedures and costs of starting a business and dealing with construction permits, and increase the availability of credit facilities at lower interest rates to promote investment in the region.     

Indonesia's missing multinationals: business groups and outward direct investment

Some countries produce more multinational enterprises (MNEs) than others. India and China, in particular, have produced a number of dynamic MNEs whose success abroad generates important economic benefits for the home economy. Motivated by this observation, we describe the internationalisation record of Indonesia's major business groups. Using an archival analysis method, we find that, with a few exceptions, Indonesia's largest business groupings focus predominantly upon the domestic market. We advance two explanations for this investment pattern. The first suggests that the apparent absence of Indonesian MNEs is an accounting error, because firms’ outward investment is under-reported in official statistics. The second suggests that Indonesian outward foreign direct investment is impeded by a combination of institutional and firm-level factors that arrest the internationalisation of all but the largest firms. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and reflect on their theoretical implications.     

中国投资银行资源产业领域并购业务竞争力研究

资源产业领域的并购业务已经成为我国投资银行机遇最大,但是竞争也最为激烈的业务领域。面对未来激烈的竞争,如何提升投资银行并购业务的竞争力,就成为摆在当下的亟待解决的课题。本文重点分析中国投资银行资源产业领域的并购业务与外国和国内商业银行竞争格局,进而提出相应的对策建议。     

Postwar business cycles in Japan: A quest for the right explanation

This paper explores the nature of postwar business cycles in Japan. Our basic strategy is to study different production behaviors of various manufacturing industries over business cycles. We are particularly interested in the problems of whether only monetary shocks are important and, if not, what kind of real shocks are important. We conclude that purely monetary theory is inadequate, and that construction activities were major causes of aggregate fluctuations in the pre-first oil shock period of rapid growth. We also present some evidence suggesting that real business cycle theory is implausible.     

论我国外商投资企业立法与公司法的并轨

在我国已经加入WTO的背景下,我国目前的三资企业立法与经济发展及WTO的要求存在许多矛盾。在内容上,三大法律不协调,甚至相互矛盾,与国内的其他法律如《公司法》、《个人独资企业法》等存在许多重复和矛盾。外资企业法违反了WTO协议的国民待遇原则、TRIMS协议中的市场准入原则,所以应该废除我国三大外资企业法,同时吸收其中的先进立法经验,与公司法并轨。     

西南地区创业风险投资环境评价与策略研究

西南地区加快发展创业风险投资具有重要的战略意义。建立西南地区创业风险投资环境评价模型,并进行了实证分析。针对西南地区创业风险投资环境评价指数的薄弱环节,提出了拓宽"进入渠道"、"退出通道"等五大发展策略,以期为西南地区各级党委和政府在加快创业风险投资进程决策时提供参考。     

人民币实际汇率与外商直接投资的实证分析

本文通过运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对1980-2004年间的外商直接投资与人民币汇率的关系进行了研究,文章认为外商直接投资的增加会导致人民币汇率的升值,其研究结果表明:人民币汇率与外商直接投资之间存在着长期的均衡关系,而且外商直接投资是人民币汇率的格兰杰原因。     

美国金融改革法案对投行业务及衍生品市场影响研究

次贷危机后美国大型银行补充了大量的资本金,法案可能导致的投行、商行业务分离并不会导致美国大型银行的资本金不足,但是,融资成本的提高会使其在一定程度上丧失相关业务的定价优势。同时,法案在加强衍生品市场的交易管理,提高透明度的同时,可能对利润空间及流动性产生负面影响。