Global Banks and Synthetic Funding: The Benefits of Foreign Relatives

This paper examines the effect of dislocations in foreign currency (FX) swap markets (“CIP deviations”) on bank lending. Using data from UK banks we show that when the cost of obtaining swap-based funds in a particular foreign currency increases, banks reduce the supply of cross-border credit in that currency. This effect is increasing in the degree of banks' reliance on swap-based FX funding. Access to foreign relatives matters as banks employ internal capital markets to shield their cross-border FX lending supply from the described channel. Partial substitution occurs from banks outside the UK not affected by changes in synthetic funding costs.     

多重均衡模式与近期人民币汇率波动

当前我国外汇市场已进入多重均衡状态。在给定货物贸易和直接投资累计较大顺差、人民币利率高于外币利率的情况下,市场预期变化仍有可能对跨境资本流动和人民币汇率走势产生巨大影响。这也可以解释当前我国国际收支特点和近期人民币汇率波动。随着国际收支平衡机制的不断完善以及境内外经济金融环境的不断演变,跨境资本流动和人民币汇率双向波动有可能成为一种新常态。     

Immigration and equity home bias

Why do investors hold such large positions in domestic equity when there are gains to be made from international diversification? This equity home bias puzzle has received considerable attention in the literature, with asymmetric information on domestic and foreign assets (whether by individual choice or by market imperfection) emerging as the most plausible explanation. What happens when we consider a subset of investors whose information sets are closer to investors in foreign countries? I assess the relationship between immigration and equity home bias and find that inward migration is positively correlated with increased foreign equity positions and reduced home bias. Looking across income groups, outward migration reduces home bias for relatively rich countries, but may actually increase home bias when migration occurs to or from a developing country. These results suggest that immigration generates a positive externality of increased information flows for developed countries, but not for developing nations. The effects of immigration on investment are strongest within the Euro-Zone, suggesting that this positive externality of immigration is largest when barriers to portfolio diversification (such as currency risk) are lowest.     

浅析中俄跨境人民币结算

人民币跨境人民币业务源于贸易结算,进而扩展到了投融资与金融交易等领域。因此推行跨境人民币结算的成本收益不应只考虑贸易结算,必须把投融资与金融交易包括在内。近年来对俄跨境人民币结算取得了一些成效,但仍然存在着结算渠道不完善、现钞回流方式单一、人民币输出力度不足和综合服务水平不高等问题,为此应该在增加中俄本币结算代理行数量基础上探索人民币清算行集中清算模式,实施推进中俄货币互换,扩大对俄人民币直接投资,在现有的政策框架内完善在俄人民币回流机制,提升跨境人民币结算的金融服务管理水平,跨境贸易人民币结算制度与原有外汇结算管理制度相衔接。     

外汇存款激增原因及对宏观金融管理的影响

今年以来,全国外汇存款出现了迅猛增长,引起了多方关注。根据对泰州市的典型调查,发现主要是套利因素所致,且随之出现外汇利率大幅上行、存贷利率倒挂、贷存比大幅下降和套利现象盛行等异常现象,这对我国的国际收支平衡、信贷资源配置效率、货币供应、利率市场化建设以及外汇管理均带来一定影响。为此,文章从提高监管针对性、加强跨境代付融资监管和通过价格杠杆合理引导市场竞争等方面就促进市场健康发展提出政策建议。     

跨境人民币投融资问题研究

开展跨境人民币投融资,是提高人民币国际地位的战略需要,是配合跨境贸易人民币结算的客观需要,也是化解对外资产负债货币错配风险的迫切需要。随着各种跨境人民币投融资安排的付诸实施,跨境人民币投融资呈现出规模扩大化、渠道多元化、方式多样化的态势。基于动态随机一般均衡模型的研究表明,跨境人民币投资可以使居民、企业等经济主体行为的最优化路径发生变迁;模拟分析结果表明,跨境人民币投资对改善本国经济福利具有助推作用。为进一步促进跨境人民币投融资业务的开展,要按照"先引进来再走出去"的策略,推动跨境人民币直接投资;按照"先债券市场后股票市场"的次序,扩大境内金融市场的开放;按照"离岸与在岸市场协同发展"的方针,加快香港离岸人民币业务中心建设;按照市场化推动的原则,发挥中资跨国企业和中资金融机构在跨境人民币投融资中的主力军作用;按照发展与规范并重的思路,建立跨境人民币投融资的风险管理体系。     

Cross-border regulatory enforcement and corporate voluntary disclosure

In this study, we find that foreign firms cross-listed in the US issue significantly more and better-quality management earnings forecasts after their home countries sign the Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Consultation and Cooperation and the Exchange of Information (MMoU), a nonbinding arrangement established by the International Organization of Securities Commissions to enhance the cross-border enforcement of securities laws. Specifically, we find that after the MMoU, relative to their domestic counterparts in the US, foreign firms cross-listed in the US are not only more likely to issue management earnings forecasts but also issue them more frequently. They also tend to issue better-quality earnings forecasts, as measured by lower surprise, higher precision, greater timeliness, more disaggregation, lower optimism and fewer errors. We find that the observed effects of the MMoU signing are stronger for cross-listed firms from countries with weaker institutional environments, resulting in greater enforcement concerns after the MMoU, and for firms with less foreign institutional ownership before the MMoU. Collectively, our findings support the conjecture that after a US-listed foreign firm's home country enters the MMoU, the firm has more incentives to engage in voluntary disclosure due to greater concerns about regulatory enforcement and increased information demand from investors.     

Network effects in currency internationalisation: Insights from BIS triennial surveys and implications for the renminbi

The dominance of the US dollar in foreign exchange (FX) markets appears to reflect very strong network effects in the use of international currencies. What we observe today is the result of a slow-moving process that has witnessed a switch from the dominance of the pound sterling to the US dollar, perhaps during the interwar period in the early part of the 20th century. This paper presents a discrete choice model of FX trading that explicitly allows for this type of critical transitions in order to understand the dynamics of currency turnover in FX markets. We estimate the model using the Bank for International Settlements' data from triennial surveys of FX markets and also examine the factors that could potentially shift the dynamic path and lead to an earlier critical transition. We then discuss the implications for the renminbi, a budding international currency. If the renminbi were to become a dominant international currency, it would require China to attain a much higher level of financial development and openness. It is important to note that our model does not address the possibility of a gradual weakening of the network effects in FX markets due to, for example, the advancement of trading technologies, which would allow the co-existence of a few equally dominant major currencies.     

Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?

In this study, we examined the effectiveness of central bank communications during times of significant adverse shocks. Specifically, we examined how the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regulated foreign exchange (FX) markets during the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. Data collected from both the black and authorized FX markets suggested that the content of the NBU's announcements significantly impacted FX market agents. Announcements aimed at maintaining a fixed (floating) FX rate prompted an increase (decrease) in the black market premium in cash transactions. Moreover, the NBU's announcements influenced the sale side of foreign currency more than any other aspect, an area where the black market FX traders held near monopolistic power.     

人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

2012年以来,人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势,升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动,灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构,使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现,反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强,也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动,增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化,文章提出相关政策建议。     

Government venture capital and cross-border investment

We use data on venture capital investments from 26 countries from 1998–2013. We investigate the following questions: Do domestic government sponsored venture capital funds augment or curtail domestic private venture capital funds from cross-border investment? Do government sponsored venture capital funds attract or repel foreign private venture capital investment? The results show that a preponderance of mixed-structured over pure-structured government venture capital investment has a crowding-in effect overall: it attracts domestic and international private venture capital to the domestic venture capital market while simultaneously increasing total private venture capital investment. In contrast, a preponderance of pure-government over mixed-government venture capital fund investment repels foreign private venture capital investment (has a crowding out effect). We find that both these effects are more pronounced for domestic rather than foreign private venture capital and that the attraction effect is stronger than the repulsion effect.     

Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?

Does global currency volume increase on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days? To test hypotheses of abnormal currency volume on FOMC days, a new data set from the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) Bank is used. The CLS measure captures more than half of the global trading volume in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The evidence shows that FX trading volume increases about 5% in the spot and the spot-next market following FOMC deliberations. The novelty of this result is that the aggregated CLS data controls for responses in various derivatives markets: a feature that existing studies based on intradaily data for specific trading platforms do not consider.     

Foreign Exchange Risk,Hedging, and Tax-Motivated Outbound Income Shifting

Although outbound income shifting to low-tax jurisdictions provides tax savings, it is often accompanied by nontax costs. In this study, I examine whether foreign exchange (FX) risk constrains tax-motivated outbound income shifting by U.S. multinational corporations. My findings indicate that exposure to greater currency volatility is associated with less outbound income shifting, and this effect is stronger for firms with foreign affiliates using foreign functional currencies. I also investigate whether hedging facilitates outbound income shifting. Consistent with hedging lowering costs associated with exchange rate volatility, I find that U.S. firms that use more currency derivatives tend to shift more income to low-tax foreign jurisdictions. Overall, these findings suggest that FX risk is an important cost of outbound income shifting.     

Intertemporal risk-return trade-off in foreign exchange rates

We investigate the intertemporal risk-return trade-off of foreign exchange (FX) rates for ten currencies quoted against the USD. For each currency, we use three risk measures simultaneously that pertain to that currency; its realized volatility, its realized skewness, and its value-at-risk. We apply monthly FX excess returns and risk measures calculated from daily observations. We find that there is a significant contemporaneous risk-return trade-off for the currencies under investigation. There is no evidence of noncontemporaneous risk-return trade-off. We pay special attention to the risk-return trade-off during the recent financial crisis.     

关于境内商业银行外币资金汇率风险管理的思考

文章试图为化解商业银行的客户外币融资需求持续旺盛与外币存款余额常年低位徘徊之间的矛盾提供办法和思路,即商业银行可以通过构建一个外汇组合提高自有外汇资金的收益,主动管理自有外币资本金汇率风险。这需要明确以下三个问题：构建此外汇组合的目的、评价此组合的标准和构建组合的方法。在此过程中,要注意兼顾风险和收益的均衡,确定收益核算口径和收益评价标准。     

银行外汇资金来源与运用的操作现状及政策建议

银行外汇资金来源与运用涉及银行外汇业务的各个方面,尤其是银行的跨境外汇资金流动缺乏相应的监管和监测机制而导致货币政策和外汇管理政策效应的削弱。本文从银行外汇资金来源与运用角度,利用外汇现场检查中收集的数据和资料,对银行外汇资金来源与运用的现状、问题进行剖析并提出相应的政策建议。     

跨境金融:驱动因素、结构特征与未来路径

跨境金融的驱动因素和结构特征是理论界和实务界关注的重要话题。在当前复杂的国际经济金融形势下,厘清全球跨境金融的规律特征,对我国更好地利用“两个市场、两种资源”,防范外部金融风险具有重要意义。2008年国际金融危机以来,在经济周期、全球流动性、金融结构和监管政策等驱动因素的影响下,全球跨境金融活动呈现规模下降、结构调整、流向分化、主体切换和风险变化等特征。同时,银行跨境业务呈现综合化趋势,数字化转型提速,经营稳健性明显增强。我国跨境金融规模稳步增长,对国际收支的影响持续增强,在全球资金循环中的份额不断提高。未来,随着我国经济转型和对外开放步伐的加快,跨境金融的规模和结构还将发生深刻变化,风险日趋复杂。应引导形成与我国经济金融发展特征相匹配的跨境资金结构,平衡扩大开放与风险防控的关系,充分发挥银行业在跨境金融领域的“比较优势”。     

基于“本币优先” 念的跨境结算本外币一体化监管研究

近年来，人民币国际化稳步推进，成为我国金融改革的一大亮点，并对本外币一体 化监管提出新的要求。本文从“本币优先”理念出发，以我国跨境结算本外币一体化监管为切 入点，尝试建立理论模型、开展实证研究，系统分析“本币优先”理念与一体化监管的内在逻 辑及影响机制，回答了宏观战略与微观风险防范职能分工、一体化监管与“本币优先”理念逻 辑统一等问题，并提出了新形势下践行“本币优先”理念、加强本外币一体化监管的建议。     

基于风险选择与投资收益的外汇储备币种结构研究

随着外汇储备规模的不断增加,国家外汇储备投资的风险偏好亦会发生相应的变化。借鉴 J. H.Makin(1971)的方法,构建外汇储备币种结构配置理论模型,讨论在效用最大化的情况下,储备资产投资如何在安全性、流动性和盈利性三原则间进行权衡。假设外汇储备仅投资于美元和欧元两种币种资产,选取2000年初~2014年第三季度的10年期美国国债和欧元区公债季度数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰检验等方法进行的实证研究发现：储备货币在外汇储备中的比重与储备货币收益率及其三阶矩显著正相关,国家外汇储备投资总体而言是风险规避型的。     

关于利用境外银行融资情况的观察与思考

贸易融资是指银行对涉外企业提供的与进出口贸易结算相关的短期融资或信用便利。银行贸易融资业务的发展,解决了企业资金短缺问题,银行也能从中获取更多盈利。今年以来,随着吉林省涉外企业进出口贸易规模的扩大和跨境人民币业务的发展,银行贸易融资总量大幅增长,本外币结合的跨境贸易融资产品大量涌现,加之境外融资成本相对较低,银行利用海外行资金和价格优势为境内企业融资的代付业务发展迅速,这对跨境资金监测产生了一定的影响,值得关注。