Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects

A large body of research has evaluated price linkages in spatially separate markets. Much recent research has applied models appropriate for nonstationary data. Such analyses have been criticized for their ignorance of transactions costs, which may inhibit price adjustments and thus affect tests of integration. This analysis utilizes threshold autoregression and cointegration models to account for a neutral band representing transactions costs. We evaluate daily price linkages among four corn and four soybean markets in North Carolina. Nonlinear impulse response functions are used to investigate dynamic patterns of adjustments to shocks. Our results confirm the presence of thresholds and indicate strong support for market integration, though adjustments following shocks may take many days to be complete. In every case, the threshold models suggest much faster adjustments in response to deviations from equilibrium than is the case when threshold behavior is ignored.     

Spatial Market Arbitrage and Threshold Cointegration

Goodwin and Piggott reported that corn and soybean prices in spatially separated markets in North Carolina exhibited threshold cointegration and that commodity prices in different markets may persistently diverge. Here, a multivariate approach is used to test for threshold cointegration and nonlinear cointegration. The results suggest that departures from the law of one price do not persist indefinitely.     

Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis

This article introduces a new spatial price analysis methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture distribution model incorporating price, transfer cost, and trade flow data. This method permits differentiation between market integration and competitive market equilibrium and derivation of intuitive measures of intermarket tradability, competitive market equilibrium, perfect integration, segmented equilibrium, and segmented disequilibrium. One can also use these estimates to derive semiparametric measures of time-varying regime probabilities to track changing market conditions. An application to trade in soybean meal among Pacific Rim economies demonstrates the usefulness of the method.     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.     

The integration of energy and agricultural markets

This article addresses the evolving links between energy and agricultural markets. Prior to 2005, there was little correlation between energy and agricultural commodity prices. In 2006–2008, with the ethanol boom in the United States, there emerged a strong link between crude oil, gasoline, and corn prices. There was little link between ethanol and corn. However, in late 2008 and 2009, the markets changed as ethanol production came under severe economic pressure and 2 billion out of 12 billion gallons of capacity shut down. During this period ethanol became priced more on corn, as the breakeven corn price helped drive the ethanol market. This article explores the drivers in these markets as well as other major issues facing the corn ethanol industry in the United States such as the blend wall. The article concludes with a review of prospects of a future cellulosic biofuels industry.     

乡村旅游与城乡一体化互动研究

乡村旅游作为农村地区一种新兴的旅游形式,是农村发展与旅游活动的有机结合,是推动我国城乡一体化发展的重要力量,其发展加速了城乡一体化的进程,推动了城乡经济的融合;随着我国城乡二元结构的逐步消除,城乡一体化的不断推进,又为乡村旅游的发展开拓了广阔的空间,可见,二者是互利互惠的关系.     

Spatial planning as policy integration: The need for an evolutionary perspective. Lessons from Uzbekistan

We start out from the premise of a continued need for policy integration to address both economic and environmental issues in society, arguing that spatial planning is a privileged site to locate such endeavor. While policy integration in planning can acquire many forms, we understand those forms as ways to manage interdependencies between organizations. Spatial planning can contribute to the integration of policies in comprehensive visions, but a planning system, in the sense of a network of organizations, does not escape from the evolutionary rigidity introduced by interdependence and path-dependence. In a study of the evolutionary path of spatial governance in Uzbekistan, a former Soviet republic, we investigated the shifting patterns of policy integration that affected the organization of space. Policy integration in planning, it is found, is path-dependent, worked out positively and negatively, and necessarily relied on informal coordination mechanisms. Thus, a planning system striving to manage interdependence has to be highly reflexive, to understand the extent to which its transformation options are constrained by history and by present linkages between organizations.     

International market integration and demand: An analysis of the Norwegian and Danish herring market

This article provides a method where pre-tests for international market integration are used to identify market structures before estimating demand systems. The method is applied to the analysis of the European herring market. A Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form is used to identify co-integration vectors between price series and, based on this, to test for the Law of One Price. The Law of One Price is in force between the landing markets for herring in the two largest global supplier countries, Norway and Denmark. Therefore, an inverse demand function is estimated for the combined Norwegian and Danish market. The results are used in the interpretation of the significant increase in the prices of herring on the Danish ex-vessel market in 2001, given the stability of the Danish market. The implication is that even though Denmark did not export to the main Norwegian export markets in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Danish landing price is influenced by the situation there.     

信息不对称对林产品市场的影响及对策

林产品市场上信息不对称造成了林产品市场低效率,会产生逆选择和道德风险。信息不对称在林产品市场中大量存在,这种存在有深刻原因。从信息经济学和制度经济学的角度对林产品市场中的信息不对称问题进行分析,并提出有效克服这种信息不对称的对策和制度安排。     

Spatial and Temporal Marketing Considerations under Marketing Loan Programs

Marketing assistance loan (MAL) and loan deficiency payment (LDP) programs differ in their treatment of transportation costs. Marketing decisions are analyzed under these programs when producers are differentiated by location with respect to the terminal market. Under certain conditions, a complete characterization of equilibrium is developed. The proposed model broadly fits several "stylized" facts about producer enrollment in these programs. If LDPs are uniform at all locations, LDP programs do not interfere with marketing decisions. MAL programs distort the optimal marketing pattern by providing incentives to store for producers who should be among the first ones to supply the market.