Epistemology, social technology, and expert judgement: Olaf Helmer's contribution to futures research

The article discusses Olaf Helmer's contribution to the development of futures studies by focusing on four basic theses defining his approach. (1) Quasi-laws in social sciences and futures studies can in fact be treated in the same way that the natural laws of the physical sciences. (2) In order to make predictions, one need not appeal to a strict logical derivation, as the “covering laws” doctrine of logical-empiricism suggests. (3) Prediction and explanation are not logically symmetrical as positivists believe, thus the conditions needed for explanation are not those required for prediction. (4) Local, tacit, personal and expert knowledge are crucial in developing a foresight methodology. In conjunction, these four theses open the way to a unique theory of social prediction and to variety of “unorthodox items of methodological equipment for the purposes of prediction in the inexact sciences.”     

Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action

What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.     

Making futures research useful: The practitioner's opportunity

Futures research has a vital and practical contribution to make to the business world, to the improvement of marketing strategy. However, futures researchers need to have increased experience in a business environment to be fully aware of the multiplicity of factors to be considered in formulating a plan for marketing strategy and forecasting business events. Ultimately the futurists' greatest contribution is not one of accurate prediction but of orchestration and coordination of ideas from disparate sources.     

A critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies

Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies grows out of his concern that fashionable philosophies of the day could undermine the very idea of a respectable, viable futures studies discipline. As his concept of “image of the future” is an effort to counter the positivist intellectual constraints on futurology, so his support of “critical realism” is part of an effort to counter the equally questionable move towards “the nihilism and relativism of postmodernist post-positivism”. Both theoretically and philosophically, Bell aims to create and keep a balance, a middle ground between extremes, trying to stabilize the still volatile foundations of futures studies. His effort is one of a founder in the most robust sense of the term. In his endeavor, Bell went beyond the rhetoric of asserting the promise of a new discipline and advertising its merits. He invested into the less glamorous but crucial effort of building the epistemological and conceptual bases able to sustain an entire intellectual edifice.     

Thermodynamics, entropy and disorder in futures studies

The conceptual bases of futures studies are constrained by physical reality only to the extent that we construct these according to our best understanding of physical principles. This places a burden on futures practitioners to ensure that engagement and use of these principles is sufficiently robust to protect the plausibility of their work. The second law of thermodynamics is widely recognised as having fundamental implications for the nature of our physical reality. It is also widely misinterpreted, leading to distorted understanding of this reality. Thermodynamic principles are frequently referred to in the futures literature, and are sometimes fundamental to the futures thinking underlying the work. Reflecting the widespread misunderstanding of the second law, usage in the futures literature is usually problematic. This has implications for the value of the work, and also for the credibility of the field. In this article, the problem is demonstrated, and an updated interpretation of the second law is introduced. The origin of the problem is examined from historical and scientific perspectives within the thermodynamics field. The updated interpretation's implications are examined in the context of futures and other transdisciplinary perspectives.     

Social scanning: Improving futures through Web 2.0; or, finally a use for twitter

This article outlines the potential for “social scanning,” the practice of aggregating and analyzing publicly available content created by futurists and shared on blogs and other social software platforms, and explains how it could create value for professional futurists and their clients. The system would take content that is personal but not proprietary, and create new value from it by detecting larger, long-term patterns that individual users might not be aware of. It would create the means to better distribute credit for finding weak signals or emerging trends, and create new forms of professional credit for work that currently remains invisible. It would create goods that are useful to individual practitioners and the profession as a whole. Finally, it would serve as a foundation for collaborative research in a community of practice that is highly distributed.     

Truth claims and explanatory claims—An ontological typology of futures studies

Classifications of futures research are usually based on epistemological differences, but we complete these with ontological considerations. The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are: forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); forecasts which make truth claims, but not explanatory claims (prognoses); forecasts which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and forecasts which make neither truth claims nor explanatory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typology by presenting an example of each outcome.     

City futures in transformation: Emerging issues and case studies

This article discusses: 1. The recent/increasing prominence of cities as agents of global change; 2. Emerging issues that are likely to influence the direction of city futures in novel ways; 3. The theory and practise of city futures projects; and 4. Case studies of cities engaged in foresight projects.     

Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’

Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (‘politically’). This article acknowledges that gap and claims that it is a fundamental divide between to very different domains. However, out of that re-conceptualization of the relation between futures studies and management, a new direction for an integrated praxis arises. In an empirical case study, we show that by means of an intelligent process-design and professional balancing of several key-dilemmas, futures studies can be connected to management processes and organizational development. The future can be brought back into the everyday practice of management. However, in order to do so, the futures field needs to set aside some of its methodological claims and move towards the field of strategic management. Not because futurists need to abandon their specific knowledge and expertise, but to make the most of it.     

Contending voices: futures, culture and development

This essay discusses some aspects of the World Commission on Culture and Development (WCCD), a major UN initiative. It describes, in particular, the fate of a proposal to establish a General Agreement on Culture and Development (GACD) similar to other international agreements, but which takes a ‘bottom-up’ rather than a ‘top-down’ approach to negotiation. The proposed GACD would contribute to the resolution of culture-related crises and promote new directions for development based on cultural diversity and shared global values. The aim of the essay is: to indicate the aims and progress of the Commission; to consider how cultural futures-oriented thinking might assist in the conceptualization of a GACD; and to reflect on how different voices within the world community affect the progress of such initiatives and proposals.     

Political constraints, organization design and performance measurement in China’s state-owned enterprises

This study develops a theoretical model to test how political constraints on labor decisions mediate the effects of economic liberalization forces on aspects of organizational design such as delegation, performance measurement, and incentives in Chinese state-owned enterprises. Hypotheses tests using a large survey of divisional managers generally confirm the model: that the influence of three liberalization forces (industry level growth and foreign firm competition, joint venture experience and stock market listing) on organization design is mediated by political constraints.     

The futures field: Functions,forms, and critical issues

Institutional forms in the futures field should be founded on the functions to be performed. These functions are viewed in relation to the contribution of visionaries to more and better images of the future; to a family of related analytical activities aimed at enhancing intentionality and explicitness in planning and decision making; and to a variety of grass-roots movements aimed at encouraging participatory social planning. Five basic functionsgoals formulation; methods development; applications; coupling; implementation—are explored and some existing institutional forms are examined: image generators; research organisations; corporate or government planning groups; and citizen groups. These provide guidelines for the possible development of modified institutional forms and their orientation.