决策科学:过去、现在与将来

现代决策科学，是自然科学与管理科学相互渗透、相互融合而产生的一门归一化的科学。自然科学驾驭着自然，管理科学驾驭着社会，两者紧密结合起来，就产生了重大的变革。这场变革的结果，使我们获得更加科学的决策，以适应社会的需要，实现对未来更为有效的控制。     

Wendell Bell and the sociology of the future: Challenges past, present and future

As a sociologist dealing with futures studies, Wendell Bell encountered considerable obstacles because his topic - the future, imagined, projected and shaped - poses significant problems for contemporary sociology. The paper discusses Bell's engagement with these disciplinary difficulties and his search for conceptual and methodological solutions. The paper anchors Bell's achievements in a wider historical context, identifies some of the new challenges facing sociology and considers some openings for change in our knowledge practice.     

Mapping future through the study of the past and present: Estonian suburbia

One of the most visible features in Estonian settlement pattern has in the last decade been the emergence of residential developments, which are primarily situated amidst former agricultural landscapes. The planners and policy-makers often approach the urban sprawl as problematic and unprecedented in the history in this part of Europe and take the current situation as a baseline or Ground Zero in developing future scenarios. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that rapid change and adaptation have been the rule rather than an exception in Estonia (as elsewhere in the Western world) in the last century. Adopting a longer time perspective and advocating a relational rather than oppositional approach to rural and urban, nature and culture, as well as the insider and outsider perspectives and public and private spheres may be useful for understanding the spatial frame and historical context in drafting scenarios. Sketching personal narratives of place that have a focus on the choices made in the past and their physical expressions as indicated on the maps, future options and visions are illustrated. We explore the domestic entanglements of rural and urban in two specific locations in Estonia to find ways to loosen the hold of dualisms and outsider-insider perspectives and to construct a more relational approach. Shifting perspectives may help to demonstrate that the urban sprawl with its cultural and ecological consequences is a part of a continuing process not something negative or new. Mapping the personal and place history illustrates the variety and contributes to ceasing the possibilities instead of tackling the uncertainties as sustainability problems.     

Wendell Bell, The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies: Some reflections on the past, present, and future

The article looks at Professor Bell's early and seminal work in the West Indies and his attempt to interrogate the process of what he (Bell) labels as The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies. Bell, it is argued, uses theoretical paradigms of the social sciences to analyze how ideas from the enlightenment of the eighteenth century, to wit the process of spreading equality (writ large), and egalitarianism, can be effectuated in the new and small nation-states of the West Indies. It is argued, that this mode of inquiry was indeed the early beginning of, and laid the foundations for, Bell's futurist studies and pursuits currently, and, that by examining the findings, it can be seen if they are now borne out for these countries and, if not, the prospects for any recovery in the future. Finally, the author contends that, although the Democratic Revolution has been somewhat stymied, the earlier thrust for, and focus on, increased education has had the unintended effect of motivating fleeing migratory nationals and their progeny, to seek and demonstrate their equality through education in the core host democracies.     

Near Future School: World building beyond a neoliberal present with participatory design fictions

This article reports on one part of an on-going project, the Near Future School, which aims to translate and explore the potential of participatory design fiction practices for use with young people and those that work with them to explore near future scenarios of education that open up alternative and plural futures in the context of processes of foreclosure in a neoliberalising society. The focus here is to explore the practical and ethical issues of developing a speculative form of governance, using the philosophy of Benedict de Spinoza, as an act of imaginative world building through participatory design fictions. The research raises a series of questions and issues relating to understanding how design fiction’s multiple inheritances, from fiction and design or art and design, need to be better understood and enacted within participatory design fiction processes.     

Robots,men and sex tourism

In 2050, Amsterdam's red light district will all be about android prostitutes who are clean of sexual transmitted infections (STIs), not smuggled in from Eastern Europe and forced into slavery, the city council will have direct control over android sex workers controlling prices, hours of operations and sexual services. This paper presents a futuristic scenario about sex tourism, discusses the drivers of change and the implications for the future. The paper pushes plausibility to the limit as boundaries of science fiction and fact become blurred in the ever increasing world of technology, consumption and humanity, a paradigm known as liminality.     

Capital in banking: Past,present and future

Earlier versions of this paper were presented at a Conference on Capitalizing for the 90s in Washington, D.C., March 20, 1991, at the Western Economic Association meetings in Seattle, July 1, 1991 and at a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute on July 16, 1991.     

Sovereign wealth funds: Past,present and future

In this article, we conduct a meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), covering 184 articles from 2005 to 2019. Our meta-literature review consists of qualitative analysis of content using the NVivo software program and quantitative analyses of bibliometric citations using the HistCite and VOSviewer software programs. We identify three main research streams: (i) the overview and growth of SWFs, (ii) governance and political concerns regarding SWFs, and (iii) the investment strategies of SWFs. We identify the most influential aspects of the SWF literature, such as the leading countries, institutions, journals, authors, and articles. Finally, we propose 20 research questions based on the meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds to set the future research agenda.     

Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis

We compare the Sharpe ratios of traders who combine one risklessand one risky asset following (i) buy and hold strategies; (ii)timing strategies with forecasts from simple; or (iii) multipleregressions; and (iv) passive allocations of (i) and (ii) withmean-variance optimizers. We show that (iv) implicitly usesthe linear forecasting rule that maximizes the Sharpe ratioof managed portfolios, but the remaining rankings are unclear.We also suggest generalized method of moments (GMM) estimatorsto make (iv) operational and evaluate their significance withspanning tests. Finally, we characterize the equivalence between(iii) and (iv), and propose moment tests to assess it.     

Money transfer,present and future

This article presents information on the range of payment situations that currently exist, and on how payments are made within each type. Despite common beliefs to the contrary, the overall picture is unlikely to change greatly over the next ten years; for instance, cash and cheques are likely to continue dominating many areas, although Electronic Funds Transfer will expand rapidly in some specific instances.     

Managed disability--past, present and future

This article discusses the overall development of managed disability. First, it explores historical factors that have influenced managed disability programs, followed by important considerations in current programs, and finally discusses future issues to contemplate for successful evolution to occur. The authors conclude by pointing out the opportunity for insurers to develop innovative and responsive products and the opportunity for employers to have a direct impact on reshaping disability benefit programs.