Beyond epistemological pluralism: Towards an integrated vision of the future

This paper is a response to Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies, featured as a special edition of Futures (42:2). Since that special edition was a response to Integral Futures, a previous special edition of Futures (40:2), this paper begins with a treatment of some of the critiques of IF, as well as the critiques of Ken Wilber and integral theory. I examine the validity of those critiques, focusing in particular on the accuracy of the “portraits” given of Ken Wilber and his contribution to integral theory. I also examine the claims of “epistemological pluralism” to determine whether it is a more appropriate framework for futures inquiry and practice. In this consideration, I treat epistemological pluralism (devoid of an “integrating” theory) as an expression of skeptical postmodernism. Finally, I conclude with a historical overview of integral theory.     

Eleonora Masini: Nurturing visions of the future

This profile is an overview of the remarkable career of Eleonora Barbieri Masini, the mother of Futures Studies, who dedicated her professional life to nurturing hopeful visions of the future. She was a leading proponent for studying the future and a reviewer of the field. An Italian sociologist, Masini was first influenced by French thinkers, then by the advocacy of Aurelio Peccei, co-founder of the Club of Rome, with whom she became a close friend. During the change swirling around her beloved Europe, as it struggled for post-war reconstruction, she helped establish the World Futures Studies Federation, taking this global network of futurists behind the Iron Curtain and into the developing world. She was always on the move, particularly seeking out and encouraging women to take seriously their special role in both envisioning and creating the future. Her own hope for the future, which she held against the tide, helped lift her beyond a bleak present.     

Always coming home: Towards an archaeology of the future

This paper reports on a research project which facilitated a group of socially committed educators to clarify the nature of their desirable futures and to identify their sources of hope. This work is set within the normative tradition of futures studies and an account is given of how the research process was arrived at and the way in which people responded to this. A participatory and experiential focus group format enabled participants to explore these issues in a fruitful and synergetic way. Key elements of their preferable futures and primary sources of hope are identified and then compared with previous research findings. Finally these concerns are located within wider contemporary debates about revisionary postmodernism, sustainable futures and the utopian tradition.     

A vision for communities in the 21st century: back to the future

Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s living systems model. Using these models as a foundation, this paper argues that globalization can severely weaken communities and is antithetical to future-oriented perspectives. If current globalization trends continue unabated, globalization may result in a future world characterized by satiated consumers whose every desire is met by a totally efficient but completely impersonal economic system. In this world, people do not depend directly upon face-to-face interaction for their economic well being. Because of this, community and even culture collapses. Contrasted to this soulless world, it is argued that a new future could evolve where concern about the future replaces individualistic and market-oriented concerns as the prime motivator of public policy. This future has a good probability of occurring since current populations are being socialized to understand the broad concept of globalization. Additionally, new technologies will allow the development of small, mostly self-sufficient communities which will facilitate the re-emergence of community life and obligations.     

A vision of the future of science: reintegrating the study of humans and the rest of nature

This paper presents a vision of a desired future of science. In this vision, the future will bring the reintegration of the study of humans and the rest of nature. The barriers between the traditional disciplines will dissolve and a true ‘consilience’ of all the sciences and humanities will occur. This consilient transdisciplinary science will emerge from a rebalancing of analysis and synthesis, a recognition of the central role of envisioning in science, a pragmatic philosophy built on complex systems theory and modeling, a multiscale approach, and a consistent theory of cultural and biological co-evolution. It will allow us to build a world that is both sustainable and desirable and that recognizes our fundamental partnership with the rest of nature. It is a world that we must first imagine in order to achieve.     

Future uncertain: Arts council England''s vision for the future of the contemporary visual arts

This paper considers the construction and presentation of the Arts Council of England's (ACE) vision, Turning Point for contemporary visual arts. It constitutes a case study of the processes entailed in planning the future of the visual arts. By examining the commissioning of the visual arts review, and the various contexts within which it was set — namely, those of the visual arts, ACE, and Department of Culture, Media and Sport, (DCMS) it asks in what sense this strategy specifically caters for the future. The article closes with some observations about the case made for the visual arts and the business of formulating strategy within DCMS's non-departmental public bodies.     

Towards an organizational theory of the transfer pricing process

Understanding the transfer pricing issue as it arises in large decentralized firms is important, because it represents a pervasive problem in the design of managerial accounting and control systems in complex organizations. This paper draws on the growing literature on the economics of internal organization to develop an understanding of the strategic, organizational and transactional conditions under which transfer pricing (and related control) issues arise, and the organizational processes used to implement intra-firm transfers of products and to determine transfer prices. The objective of the paper is to develop a theory of the transfer pricing process and to reduce hypotheses from the theory.     

‘Radiant with possibility’: Involving young people in creating a vision for the future of their community

This paper argues that young people need to be given the opportunity to recognise the interaction between their own understandings of the world as it is now and the vision of what it might become. To support this argument, we discuss an urban planning project, known as the Lower Mill Site Project, which involved active participation of high school students from the local community. The outcomes of this project demonstrate the positive contributions young people can make to the process of urban redevelopment, the advantages of using a participatory design approach, and the utopian possibilities that can emerge when young people are invited to be part of an intergenerational community project.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

The revaluation of assets as a signalling device: a theoretical and an empirical analysis

In many countries, firms can choose whether or not to report a revaluation in the financial statements. An analytical model is developed to indicate conditions in which it is more likely that successful firms will choose not to revalue assets as a credible signal to potential investors. These industry settings include a high variance in performance and low equity-to-debt ratios. The empirical results for Belgium confirm that successful firms are less likely to revalue assets in those industries. However, only the revaluation of fixed tangible assets and not financial assets seems to be a credible signal. Finally, the results support the choice to revalue, but not the amount of revaluation, as a signalling device.     

Complexity and thermodynamics : Towards a new ecology

This article proposes a thermodynamic paradigm for the development of ecosystems. Ecosystems are viewed as non-equilibrium structures and processes, open to material and energy flows. It is suggested that as ecosystems grow and develop, they should increase their total dissipation by developing structures and processes to assist energy degradation. Species which survive in ecosystems are those that funnel energy into their own production and reproduction and contribute to autocatalytic processes which increase the total dissipation of the ecosystem. These studies may allow for the development of measures useful to environmental management and may help the science of ecology with a much needed theoretical framework.     

The practice turn in organization research: Towards a disciplined transdisciplinarity

This paper comments on Fauré and Rouleau (2011) and draws out implications for practice-theoretic research in organizations more generally. In particular, it points to the potential for the transdisciplinary application of practice theory, allowing issues, insights and methods to be transferred between all the organization disciplines, not just accounting and strategy. Responding to some recent criticisms of practice-theoretic research in organizations, the paper argues that transdisciplinarity will be fostered by a disciplined approach to practice theory, based on a commitment to social practices, and respect for agency, materiality, discourse, the limits of social scientific knowledge and a refusal of reductionism.     

The future of leadership: reframing the unknown

Accepting the arguments of Donald Michael's article, this essay focuses on the need to understand patterns of denial and affirmation as they affect efforts at consensus formation. Leadership is presented as an interface role, orchestrating the exposure to light and shadow, between that which can be communicated (to followers) and that which cannot. The challenge for leadership is portrayed as one of navigating through shifting patterns of affirmation and denial. This challenge is represented in terms of four zones ranging from simple consensus, through situations undermined by unwritten rules, to a zone in which neither assertion nor denial is relevant. The latter is seen as more typical of Eastern approaches to governance. It is argued that complementary patterns of affirmation and denial are essential to the processes of sustainable communities.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide

Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.     

The death of the urban vision?

Debate on the future city has changed greatly in the last 20 years. From visions of a distant, orderly and mobile Utopia, peopled with enlightened ‘modern man’, concerns have become more sporadic and less coherent, determined by economic recession and the need to preserve existing urban social fabric rather than with the need to plan holistically for the city of the future. However, there should be no return to the earlier modernist visions, which lacked sufficient social understanding (as illustrated by failed experiments with highrise flats in the UK). Planning for the city of the future must be based on realistic societal needs.     

Inventing a sustainable future: Australia and the challenge of eco-innovation

Australia's possible futures depend on choices that are made now. One key to Australia's directions and success will be its capacity to shape an environment for innovation which meets its broader economic, social and environmental goals. We argue from both past successes and future potentials that opportunities are available for Australians to frame for themselves an economically attractive and globally constructive role by shaping their strategies to facilitate eco-innovation directed towards environmental sustainability.We contrast the role of past innovations in facilitating critical developments in the amelioration of the destruction of stratospheric ozone with current opportunities for Australia to contribute through innovation to resolving the problem of anthropogenic global warming and climate change. In particular, we focus on the powerful potential role of information technology in facilitating technological and social innovation towards sustainability through eco-innovation, and discuss key strategic principles in the context of the potential of technologies already under development. Such technologies offer exciting and important choices for Australians over the next few years.     

一个产业与一座城市的未来

大连试图通过发展软件产业和信息服务业,走一条低消耗、无污染、高产出、高科技密度、高信息密度的产业道路。如果大连能够在软件产业方面走出一条道路,那么对中国走新型工业化道路,无疑是提供了一个借鉴。大连想做一个探索。     

The timing of prepayment: A theoretical analysis

This article develops the analytical methods necessary to determine the prepayment patterns of a mortgage contract. The most obvious measure of how many years a mortgage is likely to last is the expected time to termination. It is this measure that we most fully explore. However, since the method employed is able to characterize the probability of prepayment in any given time period, the means is provided to determine any measure of the time to termination.     

The Cyprus debacle: what the future holds

This paper analyzes the Cyprus conflict from a realist perspective based on the assumption that it has implications for regional and global security. At the end of the millennium, the UN negotiations for Cyprus have been resumed, the USA has become more actively involved and the European Union has decided to open accession negotiations with Greek Cypriots. The paper proposes first that the futures of Cyprus are going to be determined by the strategic interests of the actors involved and, second, that unification of the island is becoming a more distant possibility.