论科技与金融结合

科技与金融结合是产融结合的特殊形式。我国的科技与金融结合应向市场机制为主、财政性投资为辅的模式过渡。科技与金融结合制度安排的首要是企业和金融机构的产权制度安排，由于风险资本在科技与金融结合中的重要性，要特别注意风险资本参与风险企业运作的制度安排和风险资本的退出制度安排。科技与金融结合的支撑体系由企业和金融机构、中介组织、交易场所以及金融监管部门组成，起着不同的作用。     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: A contingency perspective

In recent years, a paradigm shift has occurred regarding the way organizations view risk management. Instead of looking at risk management from a silo-based perspective, the trend is to take a holistic view of risk management. This holistic approach toward managing an organization’s risk is commonly referred to as enterprise risk management (ERM). Indeed, there is growing support for the general argument that organizations will improve their performance by employing the ERM concept. The basic argument presented in this paper is that the relation between ERM and firm performance is contingent upon the appropriate match between ERM and the following five factors affecting a firm: environmental uncertainty, industry competition, firm size, firm complexity, and board of directors’ monitoring. Based on a sample of 112 US firms that disclose the implementation of their ERM activities within their 10Ks and 10Qs filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, empirical evidence confirms the above basic argument. The implication of these findings is that firms should consider the implementation of an ERM system in conjunction with contextual variables surrounding the firm.     

The contingency theory of management accounting: Achievement and prognosis

Contingency theories of management accounting have become a current vogue but have produced few significant new results. By surveying the development and content of these theories it is argued that they have been based on an inadequate and insufficiently articulated model. An improved model, based on ideas of organisational control and effectiveness, is put forward which suggests appropriate directions for future work that will be both perceptive and cumulative.     

An economic modeling approach to contingency theory and management control

A prominent theme in recent accounting papers on management control has been the contingency theory approach to management control system design. A recent review of this contingency theory literature noted the need for a more explicit theoretical structure as well as a more all-inclusive model of the organization's control system. This paper argues that while a more explicit theory is needed, the development of relatively simple models is an important step in the construction of an all-inclusive model of management control. Two such simple models of a firm's control system design problem are presented and compared. The two models demonstrate that relatively simple models can capture multiple features of a control system and illustrate how the effect of contingency variables depends critically on the specific context in which the firm operates. Because the logic underlying these models is made explicit, the reader can better assess their reasonableness. Simple models can provide useful building blocks for more complex management control models and can be used to evaluate the analytical validity hypotheses that might be induced from observations in complex settings.     

Continuity,contingency and context: Bringing the historian's cognitive toolkit into university futures and public policy development

This paper explores the affinities between the cognitive approaches of historical study and those of strategic foresight, specifically, scenario planning, drawing out their capacity to problematise perceived certainties and challenge deterministic beliefs. It suggests that “thinking with history” has the potential to enhance strategic understanding and decision-making. Two high-level decision-making contexts – university executives and Government Departments – are then discussed with regards to the barriers to such strategic thinking. The paper draws on a wider research project exploring the role for historical thinking in public policy development.     

构筑科技平台增强服务优势

随着中国加入WTO,中国经济将迅速与世界经济并轨.金融市场的开放是入世的关键,而保险业更是谈判焦点.可以想见,中国保险市场未来的竞争必将空前激烈.面对外资公司的进入,民族保险业如何应对是摆在我们面前的一个重大的生存问题.     

决策科学:过去、现在与将来

现代决策科学，是自然科学与管理科学相互渗透、相互融合而产生的一门归一化的科学。自然科学驾驭着自然，管理科学驾驭着社会，两者紧密结合起来，就产生了重大的变革。这场变革的结果，使我们获得更加科学的决策，以适应社会的需要，实现对未来更为有效的控制。     

Dark trends: Psychology,science fiction,and the ominous consensus

Many science fiction authors predict that the world will continue moving towards an environment characterised by a combination of high population density and advanced technology. Psychologists and writers of fiction both appear to be in general agreement that such an environment will result in an information overload, intolerable time pressures, overwork for a minority with a lack of meaningful work for the majority, and the loss of privacy and autonomy. Futurists should note the agreement between artistic vision and scientific research—that human civilisation appears to be moving towards conditions that are unpleasant and deleterious.     

Religion and science

Employing data from a massive, international web-based survey, and from a variety of other sources, this essay explores three different models of the future: religion without science, religion with science, and science without religion. In so doing, it presents eight different scenarios for the future of religion that citizens of the world currently imagine: revival of conventional faith, proliferation of religious movements, the new age, fanaticism, religious conflict, the millennium, scientism, and secularization. Such social issues as population explosion or collapse and inter-denominational conflict render the future relationship between religion and science crucially important for the world.     

Assessing the organizational fit of a just-in-time manufacturing system: Testing selection, interaction and systems models of contingency theory

The adoption of new manufacturing practices such as just-in-time (JIT) and total quality management (TQC) is only a first step to improving manufacturing performance. Even more critical is the fit between manufacturing practices and organizational design, structure and processes. Using archival and survey data, this paper reports the results of a field study within a Fortune 500 company that tests three operationalizations of contingency theory as discussed by Van de Ven and Drazin (1985) [The Concept of Fit in Contingency Theory, Research in Organizational Behavior, pp. 333–365]. Results show that the misfit between worker empowerment required by JIT/TQC practices and existing authoritarian management partially explain relative workgroup performance as do other conflicts within workgroups and between operators and supervisors.     

专访中国人民银行科技司司长陈静

记者:在国家“十五”科技攻关“金融信息化关键技术开发及应用示范”项目研究中,有哪些课题为我国金融信息化今后的发展奠定了坚实的基础?陈静:国家“十五”科技攻关“金融信息化关键技术开发及应用示范”项目为金融行业解决了很多现实问题,促进了金融行业整体服务水平的提升,同时也为金融信息化未来的发展奠定了良好的基础。具体体现在以下几个方面:首先是01课题《金融信息化发展战略研究》。该项课题关注的是我国金融信息化的全局性、根本性、方向性和战略性的关键问题。在此之前,我国还没有系统地对整个金融行业的信息化发展战略进行研究…     

The secularization of science and a new deal for science policy

The secularization of science, by analogy with the separation of Church and state, would divest all science funding from the state, except where it bears directly on matters of public policy. I argue for an intensification of this tendency, which is already occurring across the Euro-American world. I then explore the policy implications in some detail, including historical precedents in New Deal attitudes toward the role of science in public policy. I begin by reviewing the secularization of Christendom, which turns out to be intimately tied with the social ascendency of the natural sciences. I then explore more recent conditions that contribute to the secularization of science itself, during which I claim that the Cold War's scaling up of state support for scientific research should be regarded as a historical aberration that we are currently getting over. However, I still reserve a very strong role for the state in the public distribution of already existing knowledge, the primary vehicle for which will remain the university.     

Leveraging the synergies between design science and behavioral science research methods

For over two decades, information systems researchers have grappled with defining what constitutes good design science research. With too many older papers simply documenting the development of systems without a clear message of the contribution to science, design science fell out of favor with the information systems discipline. With the emergence of intelligent systems and the re-shaping of knowledge work, substantial effort has recently focused on articulating what constitutes a design science research contribution. In recent years, however, the discussion on the role of behavioral theory and behavioral research in complementing design science research has faded away. In this paper, we argue for a broader view on the synergies of behavioral and design science research with an emphasis on the greater role that behavioral science can take in shaping and validating design science research and motivating future research. We use the INSOLVE program of research as a proof of concept for how this synergistic relationship can be leveraged.     

践行科技立行战略 打造信息科技亮点

"十二五"期间,农行信息科技工作将继续践行"科技立行"的理念,在全行战略规划指导下,确保生产运行安全,持续提高业务连续性关键指标;集中全行力量,按照"以客户为中心,支持流程银行和全面风险管理,适应未来公司治理结构"的要求,全面完成新一代核心银行系统建设;打造一支强大的科技队伍,构建符合发展要求的科学、高效的IT治理架构,为打造优秀大型上市银行提供一流的IT保障和支撑。     

Water and science: hydrological uncertainties,developmental aspirations and uningrained scientific culture

Responses to water management needs in the Himalaya–Ganga region have traditionally been sought under the hierarchic mode by defining science in a unitary sense. Because it has ignored the pluralistic contexts and thereby the specific approaches that each demands, the particular notion of science has led to entrenched positions exacerbating disputes. In the realm of water use and management, the hierarchic manager, individualistic entrepreneur and the egalitarian social activist continuously contest the policy terrain; each articulates his/her own management style. A pluralistic approach that gives space to each management style with varying obligations at varying scales may avoid the pitfalls of the past. By allowing forces of entrepreneurial innovation, egalitarian caution and governmental regulation their due institutional participation, interventions become less dispute-ridden in an increasingly uncertain and stressful future.     

Mediating instruments and making markets: Capital budgeting, science and the economy

We examine in this paper how certain instruments link science and the economy through acting on capital budgeting decisions, and in doing so how they contribute to the process of making markets. We use the term “mediating instruments” to refer to those practices that frame the capital spending decisions of individual firms and agencies, and that help to align them with investments made by other firms and agencies in the same or related industries. Our substantive focus is on the microprocessor industry, and the roles of “Moore’s Law” and “technology roadmaps”. We examine the ways in which these instruments envision a future, and how they link a multitude of actors and domains in such a way that the making of future markets for microprocessors and related devices can continue. The paper begins with a discussion of existing literatures on capital budgeting, science studies, and recent economic sociology, together with the reasoning behind the notion of “mediating instruments”. We then address the substantive issues in three stages. Firstly, we consider the role of “Moore’s Law” in shaping the fundamental expectations of an entire set of industries about rates of increase in the power and complexity of semiconductor devices, and the timing of those increases. Secondly, we examine the roles of “technology roadmaps” in translating the simplified imperatives of Moore’s Law into a framework that can guide and encourage the myriad of highly uncertain and confidential investment decisions of firms and other agencies. Thirdly, we explore one particular and recent example of major capital investment, that of post-optical lithography. The paper seeks to help remedy the empirical deficit in studies of capital budgeting practices, and to demonstrate that investment is much more than a matter of valuation techniques. We argue, through the case of the microprocessor industry, for greater attention to investment as an inter-firm and inter-agency process, thus lessening the fixation in studies of capital budgeting on the traditional hierarchical and bounded organization. In addition, we seek to extend and illustrate empirically the richness of the notion of “mediating instruments” for researchers in accounting, science studies, and economic sociology.     

On the role of the estimation error in prediction of expected shortfall

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the estimation error comes into play for the Expected Shortfall. We identify two important aspects where it may be of importance. On the one hand there is in the evaluation of predictors of the measure. On the other there is in the interpretation and communication of it. We illustrate magnitudes numerically and emphasize the practical importance of the latter aspect in an empirical application with stock market index data.     

Reimagining design science and behavioral science AIS research through a business activity lens

In this paper, we present a novel approach for reimagining the scope and impact of design science and behavioral science accounting information systems (AIS) research. We do so by first explicitly considering the broad impact of accounting on business functions. The proliferation of information technology throughout the organization coupled with the blurring of the lines between “accounting” and “business” activities has spawned a world where (technology-enabled) accounting has truly become the language of (technology-driven) business. Leveraging the International Standards Organization model of the phases of business activity, we highlight how utilization of information systems artifacts in each business activity phase yields a broad array of AIS research questions. Second, we encourage design science and behavioral science AIS research to work synergistically, such that the outputs of each paradigm inform the research conducted in the other paradigm. We suggest that a more purposeful integration of design science and behavioral science AIS research over time can improve the rigor and relevance of AIS research to advance knowledge in the field, amplify the impact of AIS research for our colleagues in both accounting and information systems, and improve the practical applicability of the research findings.     

品自由论坛话未来远景——金融展前夕专访中国人民银行科技司司长陈静

记者:作为前3届中国金融信息化发展论坛自由论坛的主持人,您认为该论坛对中国金融信息化发展起到了怎样的作用?您印象最深的是哪一届?您是否还会主持本届中国金融信息化发展论坛自由论坛? 陈静:在中国金融信息化领域,中国金融信息化发展论坛的自由论坛是一个非常好的交流机会.自由论坛的形式是非常好的,它和一般的研讨会、培训会、展览会相比,可以为来自各方面的人士提供一个更加自由、更加开放的交流空间.它不仅仅是银行与银行之间、金融机构与金融机构之间,更是银行等金融机构与社会各界,尤其是与一些国内外知名的IT产业面对面地进行交流、沟通、讨论的机会.在我的印象中,国内金融信息化领域内类似的交流形式还比较少.