The futures of science : The human context of scientific expectations

As the international scientific community faces increasingly complex global problems, there is a growing need for closer cooperation between scientists. This can only be achieved if it is based on an understanding of the cultural elements involved in the scientific enterprise, which determine how scientists interpret and strive towards the future. This article describes a research project undertaken to investigate the nature of scientists' worldviews by surveying their images of the future. No single scientific worldview emerged, but rather a structured set of alternative views of the future, running along demographic, social and cultural lines. Such diversity may theoretically provide a healthy basis for scientific enterprise, but only if used creatively; otherwise it may hinder international, ] multidisciplinary collaboration.     

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be a powerful approach. A range of communication strategies with benefits for conveying complexity, however, has not yet been adopted by scenario developers. We present a framework of criteria with which we structurally analyze the benefits of interactive media communication. First, we consider requirements of feasibility, flexibility and stakeholder contributions. Then, we synthesize criteria for the communication of Complex Adaptive Systems. Finally, we set criteria for communicatory clarity and engagement. Using this framework, we review several science communication fields, including landscape visualization, serious gaming and visual analytics. We then develop a strategy for interactive media communication in participatory scenario development, including two work-in-progress examples. This strategy employs mixed media, micro-games and accessible stakeholder contributions in a geo-web context, and is suitable for participatory work in live settings as well as on-line, from a local to a global scale.     

Selection of participatory formats as success factor for effective risk communication and decision-making processes. Conclusions from a systematic empirical format comparison

The article contributes arguments to the discussion about the effectiveness of dialogue and participation within the field of risk communication and decision-making, considering the special issue of societal resilience. The contribution summarises selected empirical findings of a systematic comparison of participatory formats based on a multi method and a multi concept approach as well as a comprehensive data base. The analyses detected systematic differences between the formats according to their internal impact on the persons involved and their external impact. These differences can be explained by procedural features of the formats. Appropriate format selection turned out to be an important success factor for developing effective participatory projects. The article sketches the opportunities for synthesising research findings to assess and compare formats. In addition, the potentials of how integrative research can structure and refine the available knowledge are illustrated, so that coordinators and organizers in the field are supported, for instance in selecting formats appropriately. Systematic knowledge of success factors does not only facilitate the practical field work. A couple of arguments from interdisciplinary literature indicate that effective interactive communication and decision-making can be seen as a functional and relevant resource in democratic systems to strengthen the society to react effectively against threats, and to cope with development issues. Effective dialogue and participation, therefore, can be understood as resources for strengthening the social resilience of modern democratic societies.     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

Organisational control as cultural practice—A shop floor ethnography of a Sheffield steel mill

Field studies of management control and accounting have tended to study organisational meaning through practices. We identify three strands of practice research on organisational control (viz., governmentality, actor network theory, and accountability) and propose a forth: cultural practice. The study of control as cultural practice is grounded in observation because it conceives of cultural knowledge as practical and largely extra-linguistic. It conceptualises organisational control as an effect of the actions and ideas of organisational members beyond the ranks of management, thus widening the field of empirical inquiry. It also makes studies of steady state organisations more attractive thereby opening the possibility that the assemblages of people, purposes, and technologies, which give rise to specific forms of organisational control, may be understood as less ephemeral than, particularly, studies of governmentality and actor network theory have suggested. Our ethnography of a steel mill in Sheffield is based on 11 months of participant observation on the shop floors of the hot and cold departments. We argue that the subcultures of different shop floors were constituted in practices of control which enabled organisational members to pursue diverse objectives that were related to their various wider cultural aspirations. Organisational control practices relied on diverse accountings and accounts of organisational actions and purposes. Whilst we found considerable diversity between subcultures, we also found that individual subcultures, and the tensions and contradictions within them, exhibited much continuity. The ability of studies of organisational subcultures to bring out the diversity as well as continuity of practices holds considerable potential for our understanding of organisational control.     

Determinants of Spanish Foreign Direct Investment in Morocco

Despite its cultural distance, Morocco is becoming an interesting target country for foreign direct investment (FDI) from Spanish firms. Several factors facilitate this process: Morocco's geographical proximity, strategic location, emerging market, political stability, and workforce, as well as the know-how the country needs to complete its economic development. Based on traditional theories about FDI and the resource-based view of the firm, this paper analyzes the influence that various firm-specific factors may have exerted on the ownership structure of investments in Morocco. Our results suggest that Spanish firms that have chosen full ownership investments without the support of a partner have more than one investment in Morocco, and accumulate more experience in using that investing strategy in other countries.     

From authenticity to significance: Tourism on the frontier of culture and place

The tourism of the future will include greater demand on the part of citizens of economically emerging nations, as well as on the part of a growing number of retirement age persons in many of the more developed countries. There are important environmental, cultural, and social consequences associated with these demographic shifts. Trendsetters for the tourism of the near future are likely to be well-educated elites who are familiar with travel and comfortable in culturally diverse situations. They will have an understanding of the consequences of global economic development, and will better realize that their participation in tourism comes with a cost to communities and environments through which they pass. They will see value in tourism experiences that support principles of environmental sustainability, heritage preservation and cultural diversity, and human equality. This generation of tourists will have greater choice of travel venues and access to considerably more information on which to base their travel plans, and they will be more likely to expect travel experiences that have breadth as well as depth and that provide opportunities for self-improvement as well as leisure and entertainment.     

Managed Costs and the Capture of Information

As a result of a pilot study, it was concluded that valuable insight into the industrial application of management accounting principles would be gained by an in depth development of case studies. These would assist in understanding the compilation of knowledge within industrial practice; in return they might condition the future presentation of this knowledge and serve as a pointer to further research and its dissemination. Strong support for the development of case studies has been expressed recently by a number of prominent researchers who emphasise that, for certain purposes, suitably designed studies of this nature are a major means of making progress. The authors have compiled a set of thirteen studies principally dealing with industrial practice relating to cost behaviour analysis and transfer pricing, but covering a number of related issues. The paper outlines the methodology adopted and concentrates on three key areas of analysis: capture and creation of information, managed costs, and information monopolies. Results are illustrated through excerpts taken directly from the studies.     

Organizing for enterprise in China: what can we learn from the Chinese micro, small, and medium enterprise development experience

China is a social market economy that has grown quickly, if unevenly, over the past decade. This growth has largely come about from small enterprise, in particular Township and Village Enterprises, which are micro, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), owned by local communities and partly controlled by local government. The conditions for this economic growth are quite different from the normative western model of economic development, notably the absence of private ownership or property rights. Decentralized marketization, i.e., the local freedom to establish prices and use resources, and a strong culture of Guanxi, intricate networks of mutual obligations, and cultural norms closely associated with entrepreneurship are key features that allow ambiguous local power holders to harness enterprise to fit with local conditions. A number of propositions are constructed from the evidence, from which those concerned with economic development in both developed and developing economies might learn. These propositions are concerned with local empowerment, entrepreneurial behavior of all public and private stakeholders, freedom from formal regulatory frameworks, conditions of ambiguity, bottom-up and grounded development, low significance of privatization and intellectual property and therefore the challenge to western benchmark criteria in development programmes. In a future where ideas and concepts can be spread rapidly, a deeper understanding and application of the diverse bases of small-business development can improve global economic development.     

Near Future School: World building beyond a neoliberal present with participatory design fictions

This article reports on one part of an on-going project, the Near Future School, which aims to translate and explore the potential of participatory design fiction practices for use with young people and those that work with them to explore near future scenarios of education that open up alternative and plural futures in the context of processes of foreclosure in a neoliberalising society. The focus here is to explore the practical and ethical issues of developing a speculative form of governance, using the philosophy of Benedict de Spinoza, as an act of imaginative world building through participatory design fictions. The research raises a series of questions and issues relating to understanding how design fiction’s multiple inheritances, from fiction and design or art and design, need to be better understood and enacted within participatory design fiction processes.     

The future of SETI: Finite effort or search without end?

For almost 50 years, astronomers have scanned the skies for evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization that has reached or surpassed our level of technological development. In the course of this search, technology has improved dramatically, and additional developments such as larger and more sensitive telescopes and increased computing power will accelerate the search and extend it into new areas. Speculative search strategies that are more firmly rooted in imagination and wish than present-day science may mature with the practical effect of further extending the search space. The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), based on passive observation, has been joined by the controversial activity of messaging extraterrestrial intelligence (METI), the use of radio transmissions and space probes to proclaim our place in the universe. Potential “wild cards” that could fundamentally change the nature of the search include government intervention, the fruition of breakthrough technologies, and a confirmed detection. A rigorous search could confirm the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence tomorrow, within the lifetime of many people now alive, or in the distant future. All that is required for its continuation is a small number of scientists who have the skills and equipment to conduct a search that most scientists find credible. Since the search for life beyond Earth is motivated by cultural and psychological as well as scientific considerations, we may expect it to continue into the indefinite future.     

Biosecurity risk and peri‐urban landholders – using a stakeholder consultative approach to build a risk communication strategy

This article presents a straightforward and highly participatory methodology for addressing government agencies’ concerns with effective communication strategies for biosecurity when stakeholders are diverse and there is uncertainty about their levels of knowledge. The case study was among peri‐urban landholders in an area where serious animal disease infestation has occurred within the last 10 years. Initially we engaged stakeholders in a consultative process that included establishing a stakeholder influence and interest map for both weeds and animal diseases. This was followed with a mental model approach involving surveys and in‐depth interviews. We elicited information about landholders’ knowledge, practices, values and beliefs regarding biosecurity risk. Our consultative process generated examples that indicate that effective risk communication relies on establishing and affirming mutual levels of trust and credibility between landholders and agencies. While this finding is not surprising, we argue that attention to stakeholder consultative processes is central to overcoming barriers to changing practices and building awareness. Secondly, our data confirmed that while smaller landholders were the initial target for the communication, all landholders represented a similar level of biosecurity risk. Therefore, our approach was critical in overcoming external assumptions about particular actors. Finally, our data pointed to the need to develop a whole of landscape approach to biosecurity risk communication strategy in consultation with local stakeholders.     

The world in 2050 and the New Welfare scenario

The PASHMINA (paradigm shifts modeling and innovative approaches) project grew out of the need to improve our understanding of the paradigm shift in the energy-transport-landuse nexus and, more broadly, in world development. In envisioning the world at 2050, we envisaged future growth in four possible directions: growth without limits, growth within limits, stagnation, and New Welfare. The scenario considered as preferable reflects a transition toward a New Welfare, characterized by a high level of cooperation, heightened concern for the environment and for social welfare, and an increased share of immaterial consumption. This scenario is based on the recognition that the development of new technologies – although relevant – turns out to be insufficient to resolve the issue of resource scarcity alone. Important behavioral changes are also needed. In the New Welfare scenario, GDP as a measure of growth becomes obsolete and needs to be replaced with ways of measuring progress that are more reflective of natural, human, and social capital. The New Welfare scenario also charts a pathway toward a low-carbon future, with an overall reduction in energy consumption, density, and intensity, and a greatly reduced reliance on fossil fuels. A new, smart electric grid facilitates active demand management and decentralized production of power. Natural gas or even small nuclear plants tackle problems associated with the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Among other likely shifts under this scenario is a re-conceptualization of production, from short-lived to longer-lasting goods and from private to open source knowledge products and services; growth in recycling and zero-waste processes; and a shift from profit-driven business to entrepreneurship that seeks to satisfy social needs and build local capital. The world undergoes a transition from unequal growth to prosperity in a multi-polar, globally interdependent world. New global democracy networks and institutions are created, and constitutions extend beyond the protection of human rights to the recognition of “nature rights.” Citizens’ income is tied to the social welfare-oriented duties and participatory governance. This scenario further leaves room to new forms of self-regulation of common resources. Actions necessary for the shift to the New Welfare paradigm include the adoption of new metrics for measuring progress, measures to increase public acceptance of technological and societal change, the creation of new global and local institutions devoted to sustainable management of shared environmental resources, sustainable production and consumption patterns, and a low-carbon energy and transport systems.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

Can knowledge based systems be designed to counteract deskilling effects?

Recent calls in the information systems research community argue that we know intelligent systems deskill users, and future research should focus on how to design systems that do not deskill, rather than continue to examine whether the phenomenon occurs. This should be a wakeup call for public accounting firms focused on implementing restrictive audit support systems, which leads to de-skilling of novice accounting professionals. Our research focuses on redesigning knowledge-based systems to facilitate expertise development and counteract the de-skilling effects that result from use of such systems. Specifically, we manipulate the design of the system interface by providing information cues in a screen format consistent with expert knowledge representations and manipulate automatic provision versus voluntary use of explanations for users during task completion. Results show that after using the knowledge-based system to complete a series of reenacted client engagements over a three-day period, both the interface design manipulation and automatic provision of explanations had a positive effect on novice accounting professionals’ development of expert-like knowledge structures. The results of the study have important implications for the development of knowledge-based systems intended to support accounting professionals’ (and other knowledge workers’) expertise development processes.     

Western cultural influence on corporate innovation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies

This study presents robust findings that Western cultural influence, as measured by Starbucks stores, significantly improves corporate innovation outcomes at nearby Chinese listed firms. These outcomes are generated by risk-taking in research and development investment, more aggressive CEO compensation packages, and tougher intellectual property protection. Our results show greater significance in areas where local cultural influence is less, industries are highly competitive, and non-state-owned enterprises are less prevalent. We generate insights into the cumulative and the incremental impact of Western cultural influence on firm innovation using yearly data on the number of Starbucks stores and new store openings within a given area.     

Performance management in a milieu of customer participatory measurement: Beyond the ratings and rankings of Strictly Come Dancing

This research concerns the performance management practices that unfolded in Strictly Come Dancing, a television show whose viewers were promised that they could be its co-creators through Web 2.0-based customer participatory measurement systems that directed the development of the series mechanically. Analysing the performance management practice of the 2013 Danish version of the show, we find that an emotive, antagonistic competitive language game and an authoritative, calculative language game were operating in interaction. They facilitated an expectation of consumer democracy and made viewers engage fiercely with the show, while simultaneously controlling the drama so that it would unfold in a way that matched the voice of the television company. The study provides novel insights into our understanding of how companies might produce and use customer participatory measurement systems as an integrated part of their customer participatory logic of value co-creation. It also adds to the methodological apparatus for analysing, conceptualising, and understanding organisational practices of performance management.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development

Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated Assessment, narrative storylines were developed that are qualitative, participatory, and highly integrated. Multi-scale long-term (2030) storylines were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean, and for four local cases. This paper discusses the methodology and results of the process of developing European and Mediterranean scenarios. In Part II, the local scenario development by means of scenario workshops is elaborated upon. European and Mediterranean scenarios were based on a set of three existing European scenarios, that were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework. Resulting scenarios were Convulsive Change (disruptive climate change); Big is Beautiful (oversized EU and powerful multinationals); and Knowledge is King (technological development and mass migration). It proved possible to use and enrich a set of existing European scenarios and to translate them to fit the Mediterranean region. A possible use of this type of narrative storylines is further illustrated in Part II.