金融效率理论框架与我国金融效率实证考察

金融效率相对低下是对中国 2 0余年金融改革与发展历程的最好注解 ,提高金融效率是实现中国金融可持续发展的核心目标。本文首先以金融效率为线索对金融发展理论进行了简要的梳理 ,认为金融效率研究应在赋予了全新金融效率观的金融可持续发展理论的框架下展开 ,由此界定并提出金融效率的涵义与有效的研究方法 ;同时 ,对中国金融效率 ( 1 990～ 2 0 0 1 )实证分析的结果验证了中国金融效率相对低下的结论 ,其根源可归结为高层金融资源的严重缺乏 ;最后 ,本文建议不仅要建立合理的多层次的金融体系 ,更应从系统的视角加强各层次金融系统内部、各层次金融系统之间以及金融系统与经济系统之间的协调。     

中国金融深化的实证检验

本文通过对改革以来我国金融深化的实证检验得出了以下结论:现阶段利率对经济的弹性低的直接原因是,长久以来国有企业投融资体制的预算软约束;我国金融储蓄与利率之间具有明显相关性;金融深化的主要原因是边际上的,即由银行等金融中介机构提供的新投资的增量.这些结论表明改革以来我国金融深化的程度虽然有了很大提高,但资金的利用效率反而持续下降,从经济改革总体进程而言,利率改革的滞后已成为企业改革、银行商业化改革进一步深化的瓶颈.利率体系的僵化是导致资金使用效率低下的重要原因之一,如何推进利率市场化改革,发挥利率政策的作用应该成为下一阶段研究的重点.     

REORGANIZATION AND FINANCIAL DISTRESS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Prior studies on financial distress focus on the restructuring of one aspect of the firm. By examining various forms of restructuring, we provide empirical evidence that asset restructuring and governance restructuring play significant roles before bankruptcy filing. Our analysis shows that financial restructuring before bankruptcy is influenced by the holdout problem among creditor groups. Evidence suggests that the fraudulent conveyance provision does not pose a serious impediment to divestitures during the two years before bankruptcy. The evidence also indicates that Chapter 11 reorganization is lenient toward management. Although Chapter 11 allows the firm to breach burdensome executory contracts with employees, our findings suggest that union busting is not an important part of the reorganization process. Finally, we identify various financial characteristics to predict the different types of restructuring a firm may undertake.     

我国金融发展与经济增长关系的理论与实证研究

改革开放以来,金融发展对我国的经济增长具有积极的推动作用,但力度有限,甚至有些指标还呈现负面影响;总体来看,我国的金融发展滞后于经济增长,现行的金融体制已无法满足企业扩张带来日益增长的融资需求。改善目前落后的金融发展局面,一方面,应努力拓宽企业的融资渠道,让企业更多的利用资本市场进行直接融资,改善融资机制,消除“所有制歧视”,为中小企业创造良好的投融资环境;另一方面,要加速资本市场的发展和规范,发掘债券市场的潜力,为直接融资提供更大空间,并且积极推进非国有银行和中小银行的发展,促成金融机构的合理竞争。     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND THE EFFICIENCY OF EMERGING MARKET STOCK PRICES

The efficient markets hypothesis in finance suggests that as equity markets are liberalized and made more open to the public, equity prices should reflect the increased availability of information and be more efficiently priced. In this paper, we examine whether emerging market equity prices have become more efficient after financial liberalization. Using two sets of financial liberalization dates, a battery of econometric tests, and data from sixteen countries and three composite portfolios, we find that in spite of theory suggesting the opposite, liberalization does not seem to have improved the efficiency of emerging markets. In fact, most of our statistical tests indicate that the markets were already efficient before the actual liberalization.     

金融抑制对产出结构高级化影响的实证分析

现代经济增长是一种以产业结构变动为特征的经济增长模式,产业结构的演进一般遵循主导产业从低加工度、低附加值、低技术含量的劳动密集型产业逐步向高加工度、高附加值、高技术含量的资金与知识密集型产业不断升级更迭的规律.就其实质而言,产业间优势地位的变动更替体现了资源配置格局的变化,产业结构的高级化则反映了资源从效益相对低的部门或状态向较高部门或状态转移的结果.动态地看,资金的运用结构决定了产出结构的变化;而某一时刻的产出结构反映的是资金的分布状态.本文从资金形成机制、资金导向机制和信用催化机制三个维度分析了金融抑制对我国产出结构高级化金融机制的影响.     

VISION AND PRACTICE OF E-GOVERNMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

With the internet expanding rapidly in the 1990s, most of the reform agendas of Western countries embedded information technologies in their vision for change (Heeks, 1999; and Holmes, 2001). Existing studies into the diffusion of e-government has mainly centred on the USA and exposed a limited diffusion of digital delivery systems. This paper focuses on e-government by way of the adoption and use of ICT and internet for the delivery of information and services and explores the extent to which local governments endorse the e-government agenda by looking at the strategies and policies of municipalities and their actual use of e-government for the delivery of services and information. The paper utilizes data from a survey conducted during the winter of 2005-2006, addressed to the Chief Information Officers at Italian MUs with a population greater than 40,000. The results show that despite a certain degree of endorsement in terms of strategies for e-government, the use of e-government for the delivery of services is still quite limited.     

COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF MARKET INDICES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

This study ranks eight widely used market indices using two mean-variance efficiency scores developed from Roll's geometric representation of the Shanken's CRS T² test statistic and the likelihood ratio test statistic of Kandel. The results indicate that, over the period of 1973–1982, the CRSP equally weighted, CRSP value weighted, and S&P 500 emerge consistently as the three most efficient indices under all market conditions.     

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE INCREMENTAL PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF BEAVER'S NAIVE OPERATING FLOW MEASURE USING FOUR-STATE ORDINAL MODELS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS

The purpose of this paper is to determine why net income adjusted for depreciation and amortization (NOF) is a strong predictor of financial distress. This paper develops four-state ordinal financial distress models lagged one, two, and three years before financial distress to test NOF, instead of using dichotomous bankrupt and nonbankrupt models. The results of this paper suggest that NOF is a strong predictor of financial distress because NOF is an alternative measure of economic income, not because NOF is a naive measure of operating cash flow. For this study, NOF is even a better measure of economic income than net income.     

我国金融资产结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

金融资产按大类可分为银行金融资产和非银行金融资产.金融资产的快速增长及其结构的变化促进了一国国民经济的发展,但同时也存在一些问题.本文在对银行金融资产、非银行金融资产、国内生产总值进行定量分析的基础上,通过协整回归及误差修正模型的建立论证了中国金融资产结构与经济增长之间的关系.实证分析的结果表明,银行金融资产和非银行金融资产都与经济增长存在正向相关关系,但非银行金融资产较银行金融资产更有效率.因此,为推动经济增长,应积极发展非银行金融资产,注重改善金融资产结构,同时也要提高银行金融资产效率,以便全面提高金融对经济的贡献度.