International capital market integration: Implications for convergence, growth, and welfare

This paper studies the effects of international capital market integration on welfare and the speed of adjustment in a two-region endogenous growth model. Monopolistic firms undertake research and development (R&D) to improve their productivity level. National and international knowledge spillovers affect the returns to R&D. The two countries differ with respect to the initial productivity level and R&D capability (which is a proxy for human capital and structural policies). Long-run productivity gaps are determined by the difference in R&D capability. Over time, there is conditional convergence in productivity levels. The speed of convergence is larger with integrated international capital markets than without. Long-run gaps in consumption levels are larger in the former situation than in the latter. Capital market integration harms (benefits) the leading (lagging) region if domestic spillovers are more important than international spillovers and differences in R&D capabilities are small.The authors research is supported by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He thanks Lucas Bretschger, Theo van de Klundert, and Richard Nahuis, Thomas Steger, and Helmut Wagner for comments on an earlier version.     

Hope against Hope: Strike Activity in Canada, 1920-1939

The received view is that, across countries and time, strike dimensions trace an empirical regularity. The incidence and duration of contract strikes move in opposite directions over the business cycle: incidence is procyclical and duration countercyclical. The Canadian experience in the interwar years was different. Strike incidence was independent of the business cycle and strike durations fell steadily over the period. A distinct pattern emerged. The 1920s saw a decline in strike activity and steady losses for workers; in the 1930s strike activity gained momentum and there were more worker wins. Our interpretation of this extraordinary episode is based on a new data set collected for the period 1920 to 1939. We evaluate strikes in the context of a war-of-attrition model and estimate the probability of strike outcomes (success, failure, or compromise) and capitulation times (for firms and workers) as functions of firm and striker characteristics. We find that workers capitulated first in the 1920s because firms used replacement workers as part of a larger strategy to break the union movement. In the 1930s, it was firms' turn to capitulate first because they had cut back on resources to fight strikes, even as workers became more belligerent.     

区域经济增长路径选择的再思考——以劳动力为视角

区域经济在国民经济体系中居于十分重要的战略地位,区域经济发展,是一个区域面临的重大经济问题和重大政治问题。如何选择适当的路径以保持区域经济的快速、健康和可持续发展,是我们面临的重大课题。本文从劳动力这一既平凡却又非常重要的基本生产要素的视角,提出根据不同区域的具体实际,从确保劳动力投入、提高劳动力素质、规范劳动力科学流动三个方面阐述区域经济增长的必由之路,提出人力资本已经成为区域经济发展的决定性因素。     

区域经济增长路径选择的再思考——以劳动力为视角

区域经济在国民经济体系中居于十分重要的战略地位,区域经济发展,是一个区域面临的重大经济问题和重大政治问题。如何选择适当的路径以保持区域经济的快速、健康和可持续发展,是我们面临的重大课题。本文从劳动力这一既平凡却又非常重要的基本生产要素的视角,提出根据不同区域的具体实际,从确保劳动力投入、提高劳动力素质、规范劳动力科学流动三个方面阐述区域经济增长的必由之路,提出人力资本已经成为区域经济发展的决定性因素。     

China and the WTO: Tariff offers,exemptions, and welfare implications

China and the WTO: Tariff Offers, Exemptions, and Welfare Implications. — Trade reforms have opened the Chinese economy and the reforms offered for WTO accession involve further liberalization. To assess the implications of these offers, the authors take into account the tariff exemptions that are especially important in China’s trade regime, and the reductions in the variability of tariffs at the tariff line level required by the WTO offers. The offers will result in real income gains of over $ 50 billion, benefitting China and its major trading partners. Omitting the tariff exemptions is shown to result in over-estimation of the benefits from liberalization, while focusing on average tariff reductions leads to under-estimation.     

China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications

This paper analyzes the effects of China's upcoming value-added tax (VAT) reform of removing investment from the tax base on capital accumulation and the welfare of the rich and the poor. Three alternative methods to make up for the loss of tax revenue are considered. The VAT reform with consumption tax being endogenous increases capital accumulation and the utility of both the rich and the poor. The VAT reform with the labor income tax rate being endogenous increases capital accumulation; and it decreases the utility of the rich and increases the utility of the poor (increases the utility of both the rich and the poor) if the rich has a higher rate or the same rate of time preference (if the rich has a lower rate of time preference). The VAT reform, accompanied by a cut in transfers to the poor, has no effect on capital accumulation if the rich and the poor have the same rate of time preference; it decreases (increases) capital accumulation if the rich has a higher (lower) rate of time preference; and it increases the utility of the rich and decreases the utility of the poor.     

江苏经济增长因素分析及政策建议

全要素生产率方法是研究经济增长质量的重要方法。文章对江苏20年来的经济增长因素进行了实证研究,将促进江苏经济发展的全要素生产率因素分解为：产业结构的调整、所有制的变迁以及金融深化,并根据柯布—道格拉斯生产函数建立计量分析模型。回归结果表明：传统要素投入的增长已经不再是江苏经济增长的主要驱动力,取而代之的是产业结构的不断调整以及非公有制经济的迅速崛起,而金融深化对现阶段的经济增长并未产生重要影响。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于公共品理论的农村劳动力转移培训问题分析

当前,关于农村劳动力转移和培训的研究较多,大多是从财政政策和政府职能角度论述加强农村劳动力转移培训的重要性,并有针对性地提出了政策建议。文章运用公共品相关理论分析了农村劳动力转移培训问题,认为“农村劳动力转移培训”是具有正外部性的准公共品,应该由政府提供,市场生产,从而实现资源的有效配置,提升人力资本,可持续开展农村劳动力转移培训工作。     

The Convergence Hypothesis: History,Theory, and Evidence

The hypothesis that per capita output converges across economies over time represents one of the oldest controversies in economics. This essay surveys the history and development of the hypothesis, focusing particularly on its vast literature since the mid-1980s. A summary of empirical analyses, econometric issues, and various tests of the convergence hypothesis are also presented. Moreover, the essay analyzes the implications of the hypothesis for economic growth, especially as it relates to underdeveloped economies.     

Theoretical review of globalization thesis: Capital mobility and the state

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the present understanding of the political economy of globalization, in particular the globalization of capital. In the contemporary age, the regulatory capacity of the state seems to stand in a different relation to the transnational capital because its space is not bound by conventional jurisdictions. This paper closely examines how the transnational capital influences the politics of the state. It takes the increasing capital mobility as one of the key features of globalization, and explores the impact of capital mobility on politics in relation to the convergence and divergence debates among scholars. It deals in detail with the impacts of globalization on monetary autonomy of the state, on financial market governance, and on labor market governance, and discusses how capital mobility influences the politics of the state, enforcing the power configuration among the state, capital, and labor.     

公司治理理论:反思与启示

企业内各要素专有性的大小是其参与公司治理的基础,也是分享剩余索取权的依据。公司治理机制并不是由所谓的“股东至上”发展到利益相关者,从“股东至上”到利益相关者之间没有什么逻辑关系。公司治理的模式也不存在从单边治理向多边治理的转换过程。公司治理的关键是寻找长期利益共同体以及使关键性要素进入长期利益共同体。人力资本是企业价值创造的决定性力量,但只有在物质资本有效监督和充分激励的前提下,这种决定性作用才由可能变为现实。我国国有企业由于不存在长期利益共同体,关键性要素也不在长期利益共同体内,或者说,没有资本监督和激励劳动,这是公司治理低效的原因所在。国有企业目前进行的激励制度改革,虽然在一定程度上可以改善公司治理的低效率,但不可能解决公司治理的根本问题。     

霸权稳定论与国际政治经济学研究

作者探讨了霸权稳定论如何推动国际政治经济学研究。20世纪70年代,学者对不同国际经济问题领域的研究催生了霸权稳定论,其核心主张是国家间权力的霸权式分布有利于国际经济秩序稳定。80年代以后,年轻学者从两个方面拓展了霸权稳定论的研究:第一,霸权稳定论的逆否命题——霸权衰落导致霸权国干预国际经济政策的力度加强——成为80年代富有影响力的理论假设和政策辩论主题。第二,从核心概念、理论基础、历史类比和地区扩展等四个层面深化霸权稳定论的学理内涵。到90年代初,学者们认为权力分布和自由体系之间呈现出一种U关系,即国家间权力的差距过大或者过小时国际经济体系都呈现出开放状态。欧美学者围绕霸权稳定论长达20多年的争鸣,以霸权国的对外经济政策和国际体系的开放还是保护为分析对象,推动了国际政治经济学研究从体系层面向国内层面的转型。霸权稳定论的发展对国际政治经济学研究而言,至少在区分问题领域、多学科发展以及学术分工这三点上需引起重视。     

对农村合作经济组织作用的再思考——基于社会资本的视角

农村劳动力回流是因为在城市中社会资本匮乏无法在城市立足,但是回到农村有了社会资本,光靠单个的农田生产和创业经济条件却又无法得到改善。农村合作经济组织正好能够满足回流的农村外出劳动力在修复社会资本和改善经济条件两方面的要求。     

Devaluation, Capital Formation, and the Current Account

This paper re-examines the effects of devaluation and a rise in the rate of devaluation on capital formation and the current account in an optimizing monetary model of a small open economy with endogenous labor, investment with adjustment costs, and perfect capital mobility. It is shown that devaluation leads to capital accumulation and a current-account deficit in the long run and during the adjustment process, whereas a rise in the rate of devaluation has an ambiguous impact on capital formation and the current account depending on the relationship between consumption and real balances in the utility function. If consumption and real balances are separable or complements, then a rise in the rate of devaluation produces capital decumulation and a current-account surplus in the long run as well as on the transition path. These results stand in sharp contrast with Calvo (1981). JEL Classification Numbers: F41     

Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries

The aim of this paper is to study the role and significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic performance of the Arab countries. It first highlights the importance of international capital and financial flows in the Arab and developing countries, and then concentrates on the global distribution of FDI and its position in the Arab world. This discussion is followed by an analysis of the effect of FDI on Arab technological development and total factor productivity (TFP). The paper concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions.     

国际热钱流入的经济影响与对策

近年来,由于人民币升值预期、美元与人民币利率之差拉大及国内的房地产、股票市场价格高涨,大量国际热钱通过各种渠道进入我国,对我国经济的稳定发展造成了很大的冲击。对此,我国政府应给予高度关注,并积极应对。可考虑的措施是:设法削弱市场对人民币升值的预期,选择适当时机进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制;转变政策导向,实现国际收支的基本均衡;审慎开放资本账户等。     

量化宽松、资本流动与国际间货币政策协调

主要利用美国国际收支(简称BOP)账户、资金流量表等统计数据探讨量化宽松与资本流动之间相互联系。分析表明,国际资本流动与量化宽松之间关系密切,量化宽松是资本流向EMEs的重要原因,反过来资本流动则影响了量化宽松的有效性,量化宽松和资本流动是引发全球货币汇率冲突的关键性因素。各国应通过国际协调促进宏观经济政策的生效和压制冲突,使全球经济得以更加平衡地复苏以压制冲突,而且发达国家应承担更大的调整责任。     

International Saving, Investment and Trade

Feldstein and Horioka (Econ J 90:314–329, 1980) observed that saving and investment move closely together in the major OECD countries. This finding is a puzzle if national economies are characterized by one sector neoclassical production functions—with diminishing returns to capital, a high level of savings in a country should create an incentive to export capital. In this paper, we show that this incentive disappears in the presence of multiple sectors with differing capital intensities. In a high saving country, national capital can be absorbed domestically without a decline in its marginal product through a shift in the sectoral composition of national production towards capital intensive sectors. This is nothing but the well-known Rybczynski effect. We present a modified version of the standard Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) Model to show that very small barriers to capital mobility are enough to force national savings to stay within the country of origin. We also argue that, while the assumptions of this model may appear special, they are not unrealistic for the developed countries in the Feldstein Horioka study. Some historical economic trends are also consistent with the picture presented in this paper. Finally, the paper shows that the conventional insights from the one sector neoclassical model can be completely overturned in a multi-sector setting when technological differences are introduced.