A monetary model of China–US trade relations

This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary model to study China–US trade relations. The model captures two main features of China–US trade: China's fixed exchange rate regime and the use of the US dollar as the international medium of exchange. The main conclusions of this paper are threefold. First, an improvement in the productivity of China's tradable sector would benefit both China and the US. Second, a RMB appreciation would reduce consumption in the US and increase consumption in China, and would likely reduce China's trade surplus. It would also lead to a contraction in China's tradable sector and an expansion in US's tradable sector. Third, a monetary expansion in the US would hurt China because it would lead to a transfer of wealth from China to the US, a fall in China's relative wage rate and terms of trade, and an artificial expansion in China's tradable sector. A US monetary expansion would also increase China's trade surplus.     

加工贸易的本土增值 对人民币升值影响的放大效应

本文基于2001-2010年中国11个制造业的季度进出口贸易数据,利用面板DOLS方法,分析了人民币升值联合出口品本土增值对一般贸易与加工贸易的影响。研究结果表明,随着中国出口品本土增值度的提升,原本缺乏汇率弹性的加工贸易出口将变得敏感,而加工贸易进口由于与出口存在着“一对一”的关系,因而汇率弹性也表现出显著为负。加工贸易的本土增值将放大人民币有效升值对减少中国贸易顺差的作用,因此,加快国内技术进步,生产更加复杂的中间品,将适当缓解人民币“被迫”持续快速升值的压力。     

Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

人民币汇率升值:历史回顾、动力机制与前景展望

本文回顾了人民币汇率升值的历史进程,剖析了人民币汇率升值的动力机制,并对人民币汇率升值的前景进行了展望。无论从1994年汇率并轨还是从2005年央行重启汇率改革至今,人民币对美元名义汇率以及人民币有效汇率均经历了显著的升值过程。从利率平价、购买力平价、贸易余额与劳动生产率增速等短、中、长期维度来看,人民币对美元汇率依然存在一定的升值动力。下一阶段人民币对美元汇率走势取决于汇率政策制定过程中的博弈。考虑到贸易顺差、短期国际资本流动、输入性通胀与外部压力等因素的消长,下一阶段人民币对美元汇率的升值幅度有望显著放缓(由之前的年均5%～7%放缓至年均2%～3%),并伴随着人民币对美元汇率波动幅度的明显放大。     

The trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect of RMB appreciation

This paper examines how Chinese RMB appreciation affects China and its competitor’s exports to the third market at industry level. We develop a two-country competition model to analyze the trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect of RMB appreciation. The theoretical analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB has negative impacts on China’s exports and positive impacts on its competitor’s exports. We then empirically test how the appreciation of RMB to the US dollar affects China’s and India’s textiles and apparel exports to the US from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. The empirical results show that an 1% appreciation of RMB to US dollar will reduce China’s exports of textiles & apparel to the U.S. by 2.63% and raise the India’s exports of textiles & apparel to the U.S. by 2.71%.     

涉外企业应对人民币汇率弹性增强的适应性分析

人民币汇率弹性增加是由我国贸易收支持续顺差、资本流动日渐放松所决定的。涉外企业可以合理借鉴20世纪70年代以来日本企业应对日元升值时的经验,在采用合理的财务对策和外汇风险规避工具、大力开展加工贸易、增加海外直接投资、促进产品升级换代增强核心竞争力等方面积极应对。     

汇率预期与贸易收支的实证研究——以我国家用视听类贸易为例

贸易与汇率关系理论难以对人民币升值背景下我国贸易顺差急剧扩大的现象给出令人信服的解释。本文利用凯恩斯主义的国际收支分析思路,结合我国人民币不能完全自由兑换和人民币汇率制度改革的现实,将汇率预期变量引入贸易收支模型,对主要家用视听产品的对外贸易进行实证分析,从一个新的视角研究预期人民币升值对我国贸易收支的影响。     

The Effects of Foreign Currency Derivatives on the Monetary Policy Exchange Rate Channel in China

This paper examines changes in the monetary policy exchange rate channel in the presence of foreign currency derivatives (FCD) markets in China. Initially a theoretical macroeconomics model incorporating the exchange rate risk hedging is presented, and this is followed by an empirical test. A theoretical model implies that with more firms using foreign currency derivatives to hedge the exchange rate risk, the effect of the exchange rate on the net exports will be weaker and may even be reversed. The empirical section uses Structure Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models with China's monthly macro data over the 2000–2013 period to assess the impact of the FCD market on the exchange rate channel. Empirical support for the changes in the exchange rate channel transmission is found. By impulse response function (IRF) analysis, with the emergence of the domestic FCD market in China, in the long run the probability becomes higher that the negative effect of RMB appreciation on China's net exports to the US is reversed; meanwhile the negative effects of RMB appreciation on the overall net exports and the net exports to the EU become gradually weaker on average.     

价格粘性下人民币不同升值模式对中国经济的影响研究

文章以衰减函数的方式将新凯恩斯学派提出的价格粘性理论引入中国动态可计算一般均衡模型中,使模型更符合经济系统中价格调整规律,并利用模型模拟渐进式升值和快速升值两种不同的人民币升值模式对我国经济的影响。模拟结果表明,在价格粘性的作用下,人民币快速升值将在短期内对我国实体经济产生较大的负面冲击,GDP增速下降最高达1.6个百分点,失业率明显上升,而渐进式升值最高只有0.67个百分点;快速升值能有效抑制我国的通货膨胀和促使我国贸易再平衡,最多使我国CPI增速下降3.6个百分点和贸易顺差占GDP比重下降1.06个百分点,并且在长期内对实体经济的负面效应略小于渐进式升值。因此,在不同的经济形势下应采取不同的人民币升值模式。     

人民币汇率变动对中国产出的作用效应及地区差异——基于省际面板数据分析

基于构建开放经济条件下包含内外部生产要素的多变量生产函数模型,并利用1994-2008年的省际面板数据,实证检验人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国实际产出的作用效应以及区域间的影响差异,结果表明:实际产出对人民币实际有效汇率的弹性系数为-0.179,人民币升值不利于我国的产出增长;与此同时,东、中、西和东北部四经济区域实际产出对人民币实际有效汇率的弹性系数分别为-0.280、-0.080、-0.339和-0.115,人民币升值对四经济区域的实际产出均产生不利影响,但存在着显著差异,且人民币升值会进一步拉大中国东、西部之间的经济差距。     

China–US economic and trade relations,trade news,and short-term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate

The trade war between the US and China affects the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. We collect news on China–US trade policies and talks from January 2017 to July 2020. Results show that China–US dialogue and tariff imposition have the greatest impact on the percentage of RMB appreciation and depreciation. Additionally, tariff relaxation and increasing enterprise restrictions can cause a sharp appreciation and depreciation. “Policies” events and trade news from the US influence RMB fluctuations the most significantly. Finally, positive events cannot significantly cause RMB appreciation, but negative events can significantly cause RMB devaluation.     

China's Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US

This paper investigates the claim that China's exchange rate policy causes the US trade deficit with China to grow. Although there is no evidence that changes in the exchange rate cause the trade deficit to rise in the short run, a statistically significant long‐run relationship between the RMB/dollar exchange rate and the US trade deficit with China is detected. As the value of the dollar declines (or RMB appreciates), ceteris paribus, so does the trade deficit. Hence, there is a need for China to adjust its exchange rate policy to help reduce the ever mounting US trade deficit.     

Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate

Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.     

固定汇率、浮动汇率下中国经济政策——人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的影响分析

在当前国内外经济环境不佳的情况下,中美两国就人民币汇率升值问题争议不断。1994年以来中国实行人民币汇率制度改革,在人民币持续升值情况下,并未缓解中美贸易不平衡和减少美国的贸易逆差,中央政府基于国家发展水平就未来货币政策的选择上处于两难境地,期望建立健全"参考一篮子货币进行调节,以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率"机制,保持人民币汇率相对稳定,减轻人民币升值对中国经济增长的影响。     

人民币升值对我国外贸业的影响

中国自2005年7月21日实行新一轮的人民币汇制改革以来,货币一直处于升值的状态,对国民经济产生各种影响,外贸经济也不例外。中国自改革开放以来,对外贸易一直保持高速增长,而且连年保持着贸易顺差。人民币的升值将对我国外贸进出口的总额及其结构产生一系列影响。所以,对人民币在进出口贸易中给我国带来的有利和不利影响进行分析极其必要。     

Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries

This study attempts to examine the impacts of Real Exchange Rate (RER) misalignment on China's export performance. Using the SUR methodology coupled with disaggregate panel export data, it shows that China's export sector may not necessarily lose from the Central Government's decision to revalue its RMB against the US dollar because the negative impact of the RER appreciation on Chinese exports may be diluted by the positive impacts attributing to a reduction in the RER misalignment.     

人民币汇率对我国对外贸易结构的影响分析

作者利用贸易特定化系数衡量了我国2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革之后的对外贸易结构，结果显示随着人民币汇率的爬行式缓慢升值，我国大部分资源密集型商品的净出口减少，劳动密集型商品和资本、技术密集型商品的净出口增加，竞争力增强，进出口商品的贸易结构得到优化。因此，进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，推动人民币汇率稳步升值对我国进出口商品贸易结构是长期利好的。     

流动性过剩、贸易信贷与持续贸易顺差——基于中国货币政策影响贸易收支渠道的经验研究

文章针对经典理论不能解释的中国"流动性过剩的情况下还能产生持续贸易顺差"现象,将贸易信贷纳入货币政策传导机制分析框架,通过实证检验证明中国货币供给影响贸易收支的通道主要是"贸易信贷"以及"通过汇率影响贸易信贷".借此给出了我国"流动性过剩条件下产生贸易顺差之谜"的一个解释,强调紧缩性货币政策和人民币升值的汇率政策有助于消除内外均衡冲突.     

中国贸易收支和贸易条件的动态关系——对S曲线的适用性检验

本文借鉴BKK(1994)和Abdelhak S.Senhadji(1998)的分析思路,对中国贸易收支和贸易条件的动态关系进行经验分析,结果却表明,用于描述贸易收支和贸易条件动态关系的经验性规律的"S"曲线并不适用于中国。本文认为,导致"S"曲线在中国失效的根本原因在于:中国快速而全面地融入以全球生产网络为载体、以跨国公司为主导的产品内国际分工体系,成为全球生产网络中的"价值增值地"和"出口平台",贸易收支和贸易条件的"相互"作用效应已明显减弱。而在两种商品模型中,贸易条件就等于实际汇率,所以本文的研究结论从另一层面说明:汇率不是中国持续性贸易顺差的原因,试图通过人民币升值不是解决中国贸易顺差的合理之道。     

The internal and external equilibrium exchange rate of RMB: 1982–2010

This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China’s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982–1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate” and apply it to RMB, finding that real effective exchange rate of RMB need to be appreciated about 20% between 2008 and 2010, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world’s key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision makers need to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level and establish RMB “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Meanwhile, policymakers should implement a potential objective interval system of exchange rate appreciation. The appreciation range of bilateral exchange rate of RMB against USD from 2008 to 2010 may be set between 6% to 10%.