Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

World population and food supply: can food production keep pace with population growth in the next half-century?

Criteria for assessing the adequacy of a national average diet are proposed, and the global average cereal production per capita needed to provide an adequate average diet is calculated. The technical feasibility of maintaining global food production per capita up to the year 2050 is assessed. The required input of nitrogen fertilizer is estimated and the water supply in relation to crop evapotranspiration is discussed. It is shown that maintenance of the present global cereal production per capita would be accompanied by a moderate increase in grain consumption per capita in the less-developed countries, but that this will involve a major increase in the net import of grain from the more-developed countries. Achievement of a satisfactory average diet in the less-developed countries as a whole cannot be achieved until the population of this group of countries has declined to a level substantially below its future peak.     

Fertiliser and food policy in LDCs

At a time of fertiliser scarcity and high prices it is important to know more about the poorly understood relationships between fertiliser and food production. Fertiliser price increases are reflected in increased prices for food which poses a dilemma for governments attempting to increase food production and minimise rising prices. Through the use of a simple macro-model these relationships are discussed and the policy insights they offer. Impact of price receives special attention because of its frequent use as a policy instrument.     

国外煤层气产业政策及其对我国的借鉴意义

美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、英国和德国均出台了煤层气资源开发利用的相关法律和财税鼓励政策,对煤层气开采进行规范管理.我国拥有丰富的煤层气资源,煤层气储量居世界第三位.但在相当长的时期内,我国在煤炭和煤层气的开采关系上存在认识误区,煤层气不被重视,没有被认定为独立的矿种;煤炭矿业权与煤层气矿业权存在冲突,缺少煤层气开采的相关法律.建议我国政府在修改《矿产资源法》或单独立法时考虑颁布《天然气法》,兼含对煤层气的开发利用规制内容.     

尿磷复合肥的研制

所研究的以尿素为氮源、磷矿粉为磷源生产复合肥料的新方法 ,是用硫酸与尿素作用生成硫酸尿 ,然后再与磷矿粉反应 ,经熟化 ,加入氯化钾 (或硫酸钾 )和微量元素 ,造粒、烘干 ,制得中等浓度的专用复合肥。通过实验研究了尿素与硫酸的配比 ,磷矿粉加入时的温度 ,熟化时间对有效磷的影响等工艺条件 ,从而确定了适宜的工艺参数。     

The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security,resource scarcity,political systems and global trade

This article looks at the interrelationship between water and food security. More specifically, it examines the resilience and sustainability of water and food systems to shocks and stresses linked to different levels and intensity of conflict, global trade and climate change. The article makes four points: (1) that resource scarcity as a driver of conflict is inconclusive especially at regional and national levels (2) most insecurities surrounding water and food are explained by political power, social and gender relations; (3) global trade has enabled national food and water security, but that is now threatened by increasing food prices, food sovereignty movements and land ‘grabbing’ (4) and that water and food security will face major challenges under conditions of climate change.     

The Soviet burden on the world food system : Challenge and response

Through its disruptive entry into western food markets and its non —participation in global efforts at food policy management the Soviet Union has placed a burden upon the world food system. Dr Paarlberg examines this burden and the US response which has been to seek better information on Soviet agriculture, impose ad hoc controls on food sales and to enter a bilateral agreement in 1975. Three other suggested responses —grain reserves held without Soviet participation, a US wheat board, and a North American export cartel —are discussed. The author concludes that the Soviet burden is decreasing and is best lifted by increasing the free supply available for export. In future. Soviet reliance on food imports may draw it into a greater dependence on the non-socialist world.     

Soil management in relation to sustainable agriculture and ecosystem services

Requirements for research, practices and policies affecting soil management in relation to global food security are reviewed. Managing soil organic carbon (C) is central because soil organic matter influences numerous soil properties relevant to ecosystem functioning and crop growth. Even small changes in total C content can have disproportionately large impacts on key soil physical properties. Practices to encourage maintenance of soil C are important for ensuring sustainability of all soil functions. Soil is a major store of C within the biosphere – increases or decreases in this large stock can either mitigate or worsen climate change. Deforestation, conversion of grasslands to arable cropping and drainage of wetlands all cause emission of C; policies and international action to minimise these changes are urgently required. Sequestration of C in soil can contribute to climate change mitigation but the real impact of different options is often misunderstood. Some changes in management that are beneficial for soil C, increase emissions of nitrous oxide (a powerful greenhouse gas) thus cancelling the benefit. Research on soil physical processes and their interactions with roots can lead to improved and novel practices to improve crop access to water and nutrients. Increased understanding of root function has implications for selection and breeding of crops to maximise capture of water and nutrients. Roots are also a means of delivering natural plant-produced chemicals into soil with potentially beneficial impacts. These include biocontrol of soil-borne pests and diseases and inhibition of the nitrification process in soil (conversion of ammonium to nitrate) with possible benefits for improved nitrogen use efficiency and decreased nitrous oxide emission. The application of molecular methods to studies of soil organisms, and their interactions with roots, is providing new understanding of soil ecology and the basis for novel practical applications. Policy makers and those concerned with development of management approaches need to keep a watching brief on emerging possibilities from this fast-moving area of science. Nutrient management is a key challenge for global food production: there is an urgent need to increase nutrient availability to crops grown by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Many changes in practices including inter-cropping, inclusion of nitrogen-fixing crops, agroforestry and improved recycling have been clearly demonstrated to be beneficial: facilitating policies and practical strategies are needed to make these widely available, taking account of local economic and social conditions. In the longer term fertilizers will be essential for food security: policies and actions are needed to make these available and affordable to small farmers. In developed regions, and those developing rapidly such as China, strategies and policies to manage more precisely the necessarily large flows of nutrients in ways that minimise environmental damage are essential. A specific issue is to minimise emissions of nitrous oxide whilst ensuring sufficient nitrogen is available for adequate food production. Application of known strategies (through either regulation or education), technological developments, and continued research to improve understanding of basic processes will all play a part. Decreasing soil erosion is essential, both to maintain the soil resource and to minimise downstream damage such as sedimentation of rivers with adverse impacts on fisheries. Practical strategies are well known but often have financial implications for farmers. Examples of systems for paying one group of land users for ecosystem services affecting others exist in several parts of the world and serve as a model.     

Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?

Rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty. Trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities, giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the United States and Europe. Given complex and uncertain political support for trade, how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system’s ability to adapt to climate change? Here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure: the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade can help us adapt to climate change, or not. If trade restrictions proliferate, double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions. A changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system, and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability, food access, food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world. Global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate. This potential will only be realized, however, if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, for example, enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of ‘double exposure’ on food security.     

Food system strategies for preventing micronutrient malnutrition

Micronutrients are defined as substances in foods that are essential for human health and are required in small amounts. They include all of the known vitamins and essential trace minerals. Micronutrient malnutrition affects ⅓–½ of the global population. It causes untold human suffering and levies huge costs on society in terms of unrealized human potential and lost economic productivity. The goal of this paper is to identify deficiencies in the food system that lead to micronutrient malnutrition and explore and evaluate strategies for its prevention. We examine the impact of agricultural practices on micronutrients in the food supply, including cropping systems, soil fertility and animal agriculture. We then discuss the potential of biofortification – i.e. increasing the concentration of micronutrients in staple food crops through conventional plant breeding or genetic engineering– as a means to reduce micronutrient deficiency. In addition, we discuss the impact of food losses and food waste on micronutrients in the food supply, and we explore successful strategies to preserve micronutrients from farm to plate, including food fortification. Our review of the literature sheds light on the advantages and limitations of alternative interventions to reduce micronutrient deficiencies along the supply chain. We end with recommendations for actions that will reduce the prevalence of micronutrient malnutrition.     

Neither feast nor famine: World food 20 years on

The authors summarize the results of a modelling exercise designed to examine future problems in the world food system. The alternatives resulting from the interactive analysis are presented and the impact of some of these alternatives on American business and society are discussed. Their conclusions include the likelihood that world food conditions in the next 20 years will not follow the trends of the last 20 years; that the rising level of food imports of poor regions will not be sustained; that self-reliance holds the key to a stable future; that food reserves are essential and US policy on them needs to be reassessed; and that the measures needed in poor countries could conflict with the present concern of the US government for human rights.     

我国非常规油气资源类型和潜力

常规、非常规油气资源具有成因联系和共生特征。油气资源的空间分布规律性很强。源岩层系（区）内主要富集有页岩气、页岩油、煤层气和油页岩,其中前三者在国外已实现规模化开发,国内的煤层气开发已经取得进展,页岩气开发正在起步,页岩油开发还在探索,油页岩规模化开发面临较大的环境问题,应关注开发新技术研究。运移层系（区）内主要聚集致密油气、水溶气和部分低渗油气,致密气和低渗油气在国外已规模化开发,国内在鄂尔多斯、四川等几个盆地已大规模开发。圈闭层系（区）主要聚集常规油气、重油和低渗油气,这些油气资源均已大规模开发。散失区为油砂的主要发育区,国内油砂品质较差,开发有一定难度。继常规油气、致密气和煤层气资源之后,页岩气、页岩油是我国最现实的待开发非常规油气资源。我国非常规天然气资源潜力远大于常规天然气,国家应制定长期发展规划,加强探索性研究和技术准备,这是我国非常规油气资源发展和提高油气资源自给能力的关键。     

Assessing the contribution of artisanal fisheries to food security: A bio-economic modeling approach

Artisanal fisheries are an important food source in many developing regions. Quantitative bio-economic models are needed that comprehensively assess artisanal fisheries’ contribution to food security. Our model combines standard resource economics theory with the literature on food systems. It explains impacts of environmental variations and market development on output, prices and ultimately food security. The application to the Senegalese purse-seine fishery reveals that total sector rents account for 2% of per capita yearly food expenditures for the coastal inhabitants. We examine the relative importance of main drivers and the vulnerability of different regions. Market development plays a crucial role: The resource is of far greater relevance for remote regions.     

On scale economies and exhaustible resource markets

This paper considers an exhaustible resource market where firms realize economies of scale in the production of the resource, and may augment reserves through exploration. With the non-convexities inherent in this model, the typical firm's optimal decisions are corner solutions. It either operates at full intensity or not at all. Firms with larger current reserves have a greater incentive to produce today; firms with smaller reserves will tend to hold their reserves for production at a later date. It follows that the market supply curve in any given period is a step function. As price rises, production increases discontinuously: at discrete intervals, the marginal firm will change from not producing today to producing all of its reserves. With such a supply curve, the market may or may not clear. Simulation of this model suggests: (i) the chance of market clearing in any period is near 1/2; (ii) such an industry is unlikely to exhibit a significant increase in concentration over time.     

Footprints of water and energy inputs in food production – Global perspectives

During the second half of the 20th century the global food production more than doubled and thus responded to the doubling of world population. But the gains in food production came at a cost, leaving a significant environmental footprint on the ecosystem. Global cropland, plantations and pastures expanded, with large increases in fossil energy, water, and fertilizer inputs, imprinting considerable footprint on the environment. Information from pre eminent publications such as Nature, Science, PNAS and scholarly journals is synthesized to assess the water and energy footprints of global food production. The data show that the footprints are significant, both locally, national and globally and have consequences for global food security and ecosystem health and productivity. The literature nearly agrees that global food production system generates considerable environmental footprints and the situation would likely get worrisome, as global population grows by 50% by 2050. Investments are needed today to buffer the negative impacts of food production on the environment. Investments to boost water productivity and improve energy use efficiency in crop production are two pathways to reduce the environmental footprint.     

Potentiale und Risiken der Nutzung von Methan aus Methanhydraten als Energieträger

Marine and permafrost-based methane hydrates are the largest existing fossil carbon resource. Their broad geographic distribution, especially in comparison to oil and conventional gas, make them a promising future source of energy. However, there is a danger of forcing the greenhouse effect in the event of a release of methane into the atmosphere as well as causing the collapse of oceanic slope sediments. Also the technical difficulties in extracting methane from hydrates are not yet fully resolved. Nevertheless, research on methane hydrates has been forced both on political as well as economic considerations in recent years and methane hydrates have several practical advantages, which make them a transitional solution worth looking at on the way to a future renewable-based energy supply. However, the knowledge of the potentials and risks of methane hydrates is still very poor, especially in the German-speaking public, administration and policies. This deficiency hopefully will be eased by this overview dealing with the current state of research and an outlook based on the most important findings.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices: The data and analyses required

National decision makers must understand the degree to which their country and population groups within it are exposed to the negative effects of higher global food prices or could exploit new economic opportunities offered by higher prices. This paper provides a conceptual overview of the range of data and analyses that will permit leaders and analysts serving them to assess the broad implications of higher global food prices for a country and its population groups. What we find is that there are a relatively small number of types of policy responses that governments might take in the face of a food price rise. Consequently, relatively well-defined sets of data need to be compiled and types of analyses used by government to generate the information needed to broadly guide efforts to prevent food price increases from becoming crises and to derive any possible benefits. International joint action can be employed profitably both to collect this data and to build national capacity to conduct the analyses needed to guide policy formulation and general program design in the face of the risks and the opportunities of higher food prices and to evaluate the effectiveness of those policy responses.     

Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change

Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges.     

关于加快中国天然气市场发展的思考

进入新世纪以来,中国天然气消费快速增长,储产量保持增长高峰,基础设施建设快速推进,多元化的气源格局正在形成,中国在世界天然气市场中的角色正在发生重大转变。未来10～20年,中国仍处于经济社会转型期,面对严峻的资源与环境挑战,加快天然气发展和天然气市场体系建设,对保障中国能源安全、促进天然气资源的合理开发利用具有重大战略意义。中国现行的天然气价格既不能反映资源的稀缺性,也不能反映供求关系和生产与供应的成本。推进价格机制改革已成为加快中国天然气市场发展的关键。建议国家积极稳妥地加快天然气价格机制改革,近期以简化或归并出厂价格分类、建立天然气价格与替代能源价格挂钩的联动机制为目标,逐步缩小与进口气价格差距,并定期调整;中期以完善价格形成机制为目标,推动国产气价与进口气价接轨,理顺终端消费价格结构,推行天然气调峰价格、可中断供气和不可中断供气价格等,逐步形成有调控的竞争性市场定价机制。