Irrigation potential and investment return in Kenya

The potential for irrigation investments in Kenya is highly dependent upon geographical, agronomic and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This study analyzed large dam-based and small-scale irrigation potential and investment needs for Kenya based on agronomic, hydrological, and economic factors. The analysis of small-scale irrigation expansion shows that the potential for investment in small-scale projects in Kenya ranges from 54,000 ha to 241,000 hectares, with an internal rate of return from 17% to 32%. For the dam-based investment analysis, under low-cost assumption, 58 dams of 73 are profitable (IRR > 0). At high cost level, the number is 52. If we raise the IRR cutoff value to 12%, 32 dams are economically feasible. We showed that there is considerable scope for the expansion of both dam-based and small-scale irrigation in Kenya, and we also provided a strategic prioritization for investments in irrigation schemes and projects.     

Validating the usage of household food acquisition surveys to assess the consumption of ultra-processed foods: Evidence from Brazil

Our ability to research dietary changes over time and their effects on health is limited by challenges in accurately measuring food consumption. In countries where dietary surveys are scarce and rarely nationally representative, household budget surveys may serve as a useful alternative for assessing food consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate how well household acquisition data reflects the actual intake of ultra-processed foods, using data from the 2008 to 2009 Brazilian Household Budget Survey. The food acquisition module was conducted for all households selected for the survey (n = 55,970) and a subsample corresponding to 25% of the households (n = 13,569) was randomly selected for the individual food intake module, which was conducted for all individuals aged 10 years or older (n = 34,003). Ultra-processed foods were defined as formulations made by the food industry mostly or entirely from substances extracted from foods or obtained with the further processing of constituents of foods or through chemical synthesis, with little if any whole food. Examples included candies, cookies, chips, sugar-sweetened beverages, and ready-to-eat dishes. Our results showed an important agreement between the estimates of ultra-processed food consumption obtained from household acquisition data and individual intake inside-the-home data, particularly for the relative (% of total energy) consumption of these foods. Our study thus indicates that household budget surveys are quite promising for tracking population-level changes in the consumption of ultra-processed foods. The trend toward increased consumption of food away from home in other low- and middle-income countries indicates that future household budget surveys should include the collection of these data.     

Social media as a useful tool in food risk and benefit communication? A strategic orientation approach

Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the determinants of risk perception and in identifying the necessary components of effective food risk and benefit communication, this has not been matched with the development of efficient and appropriate communication tools. Little work has been done examining the implications of the explosion of new media and web technologies, which may offer potential for improving food risk and benefit communication. First, this study examines the views of stakeholders (n = 38) and experts (n = 33) in the food domain on the potential use of these emerging media for food risk/benefit communication. Based on in-depth interviews in six European countries (Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Spain and The Netherlands), strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of social media in food risk and benefit communication were identified. Second, a Strategic Orientation Round (SOR) was used to evaluate the relative importance of the SWOT components according to stakeholders (n = 10) and experts (n = 13). Results show that both stakeholders and experts confirm a future role of social media in food risk and benefit communication. Strengths as speed, accessibility and interaction make social media an interesting tool in crisis communication or issue awareness raising. Weaknesses as the lack of a filter, low trust, the risk of information overload and a communication preference for traditional media are acknowledged.     

Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

Fundamental transformations of trust and its drivers: A multi-stage approach of business-to-business relationships

This research tests a multistage model of trust in business-to-business (B2B) relationships. The model contains three forms of trust, each with unique drivers and consequences for buyer–supplier relationships. An exploratory qualitative study (N = 38) and four quantitative studies (N_Total = 616) validate the distinct stages (N1 = 140, N2 = 144, N3 = 152) and provide an overall test of the model (N4 = 180), using structural equation modeling techniques. The results support the proposed modeling of the stages and highlight a positive effect of reputation on calculative trust. Conflict resolution, communication, and sympathy positively affect cognitive trust. However, shared values do not significantly drive affective trust. Interdependence also exists among the three trust forms, both directly and indirectly. That is, calculative trust does not affect investments in relationship or confidential communication, but cognitive trust influences these constructs indirectly, through the mediation of affective trust. Affective trust also leads directly to greater investments in relationship and generates additional confidential communication.     

Trade subsidies,export bans and price stabilization: Lessons of Bangladesh–India rice trade in the 2000s

During the world food price crisis of 2007–08, rice importing countries suffered through a sharp increase in international rice prices and disruptions in supply as several rice exporters restricted trade to mitigate their domestic price increases. Perhaps no country was more affected by these disruptions than Bangladesh. Our analysis shows that prior to the 2007 crisis, when Bangladesh imported an average of nearly 1 million tons of rice per year from India, domestic wholesale prices of rice in Bangladesh were co-integrated with import parity prices of subsidized Below Poverty Line (BPL) rice. When in mid-2007, India sharply curtailed exports, rice prices surged in Bangladesh.Model simulations show that a relatively small increase in private consumer stocks equivalent to about 2 weeks of normal consumption could account for the large surge in domestic prices in Bangladesh and that an additional 300,000 tons (in addition to approximately 700,000 tons of net rice distribution that actually occurred) would have been sufficient to stabilize prices in the November 2007–April 2008 period. The Bangladesh analysis thus shows that in spite of the uncertainty in international markets, careful planning, timely interventions and openness to trade can substantially reduce requirements for public stockholding.     

Understanding fertilizer adoption and effectiveness on maize in Zambia

Increased fertilizer use will likely be crucial for raising and sustaining farm productivity in Africa, but adoption may be limited by ineffectiveness under certain conditions. This article quantifies the impacts of soil characteristics on maize response to fertilizer in Zambia using a nationally representative sample of 1453 fields, combining economic, farm management and soil analysis data. Depending on soil regimes, average maize yield response estimates range from insignificant (0) to 7 maize kg per fertilizer kg. For the majority of farmers, the estimated average value cost ratio is between 1 and 2, meaning fertilizer use would be fiscally rational, barring uncertainty and transfer costs. Since transfer costs exist and outcomes are uncertain, however, many farmers may sensibly pause before deciding whether to adopt fertilizer. This suggests shifting the emphasis of chronically low fertilizer use in Africa away from explanations of “market failure” toward greater emphasis on improving fertilizer efficacy.     

Evaluating Wisconsin dairy producer compliance and potential eligibility for international markets under existing European Union and United States Grade “A” bulk tank somatic cell count compliance criteria

A proposal to lower the bulk tank Somatic Cell Count (SCC) maximum for United States of America (US) Grade “A” milk producers was not adopted by the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments in 2011 or 2013. The proposal would have made the US Grade “A” limit consistent with many other international standards, including that of the European Union (EU). Some US states, however, have proactively adopted their own SCC limit to mirror the EU limit. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impacts on Wisconsin dairy producers if Wisconsin should adopt the current EU limit and compliance criterion. Analyses were done on SCC results for Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” dairy producers reported each month to the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (WDATCP) during January 1, 2009–December 31, 2012. Results were evaluated against the current US Grade “A” and EU compliance criteria for SCC and the percentage of (producer × month) combinations in compliance was determined. If the current EU SCC compliance criterion was in place, 86.7–94.3 and 64.3–77.3% of Wisconsin Grade “A” and “Grade “B” (producer × month) combinations, respectively, would have been in compliance for the years 2009–2012. Compliance of Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” producers with the existing US SCC compliance criterion during the same period was 99.3–99.7% and 87.9–93.9% (producer × month combinations) respectively. An analysis of a subset of Wisconsin Grade “A” producers indicated that smaller-volume producers were less likely than larger-volume producers to meet the EU criterion.     

First of the month effect: Does it apply across food retail channels?

In this study we use detailed daily scanner data on household food purchases to examine monthly food expenditure patterns across food retail channels. We compare food expenditure patterns in high and low-income households comparing those where Supplementary Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) is received in the first 10 days of the month versus households which receive SNAP over the first 15 days of the month. We find that food expenditure patterns vary systematically across the month within different retail channels by income and SNAP payment schedules. Low-income households in early SNAP distribution areas decrease their grocery and mass/club/superstore expenditures at the end of the calendar month and supplement this decrease with increased food expenditures in convenience stores and food away from home. Households in staggered SNAP payment areas show far fewer systematic patterns given the more distributed payment system.     

Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa

This study evaluates the potential impacts of investing in Drought Tolerant Maize (DTM) in 13 countries of East, South and West Africa. The analysis utilizes geo-referenced production data at the regional and household levels and employs a model that estimates both the conventional mean yield gains and the additional benefits from yield stability gains of DTM varieties as well as impacts on poverty. The results indicate that by 2016, adoption of DTM can generate between US$ 362 million and US$ 590 million in cumulative benefits to both producers and consumers. Yield variance reductions stand to generate considerable benefits, especially in high drought risk areas. These benefits translate into poverty reductions in the range of 0.01–4.29% by 2016. Significant benefits are also found among different types of households living in drought risk areas of Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria.     

European dietary patterns and their associated land use: Variation between and within countries

This paper determines the cropland use associated with the dietary patterns of 16 European countries and investigates sources of variation in land use between and within these countries. The analysis combines food availability data at the household level with country-specific land use data for food items. The household food availability data is obtained from a standardized and post-harmonized databank, developed in the Data Food Networking Project (DAFNE). The results show large differences between the land use of the 16 European countries, ranging from ±1500 m² (Ireland) to ±3000 m² (Malta) to supply an average person’s food demand. Major reasons for this divergence include disparities in total caloric food availability and in national yields. The composition of the diet is only a minor source of variation. Using food consumption data at the household level makes it also possible to look for sources of variation within countries. This paper investigates sources of variation within countries by examining the influence of education of the household head on land use associated with food consumption. The analysis shows that diets of people with only elementary education need on average 20% more land than diets of people with a higher education (2302 m² and 1948 m², respectively). The basis of this difference is the higher caloric availability for people with only an elementary education; the influence of differences in the composition of the diet is negligible. Variation in land use between countries is thus caused by the different agricultural productivities and caloric availabilities, and the major source of variation within countries is the caloric availability. The composition of the diet is only a minor source of variation, both between and within countries. The results implicate that highly educated people have a lower demand for land.     

Indigenous Shawi communities and national food security support: Right direction,but not enough

Food insecurity is a major challenge facing Peru’s Indigenous Shawi communities, who receive food support through national level programs. There is limited research, however, on how national food and social programming support is perceived, received and used among Indigenous communities. We address this research gap by characterizing the preferred diet and coping mechanisms among Shawi Indigenous households, and investigating community perspectives on the national food program and national social supports. We used a mixed methods approach, including a quantitative survey among eleven Shawi communities in the Peruvian Amazon (n = 177 households), and semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24). We found that national food programs in Peru rarely provide foods that are desired and preferred among the Shawi, particularly familiar and locally-sourced protein sources such as bushmeat and fish. Food and social programming requirements do not integrate consideration of the remoteness of many vulnerable households, and are considered culturally or linguistically inaccessible to many families. In some cases, foods supplied by national programs are not consumed as they are perceived as unfamiliar. Key opportunities to improve food and social programing include: monitoring and revising eligibility requirements for remote and highly vulnerable households; increasing provision of locally-preferred protein food and familiar food types; avoiding use of written Spanish as a sole source of information to support programming; extending food provision outside of school months; developing contingency plans during education sector strikes; considering hiring of staff with working knowledge of local languages for community distributions; using visual or oral communication rather than written communication to increase accessibility of programs; increasing knowledge on the use and nutritional value of external food; and considering exemptions to school and health eligibility requirements during the rainy season and during sector strikes. Nationally-developed programming that does not consider Indigenous and cultural contexts risks inefficiency, limited improvement of health outcomes, and the potential to increase inequities in Indigenous health.     

Farm production diversity is associated with greater household dietary diversity in Malawi: Findings from nationally representative data

Farm production diversity has the potential to influence the diversity of household diets, an important nutrition outcome associated with the nutrient adequacy of diets and the nutritional status of individuals. Yet, little empirical research has assessed the relationship between farm diversity and diet diversity or the plausible causal mechanisms that may operate between these two constructs. This research examines cross-sectional data from the Malawi Third Integrated Household Survey (IHS3), a nationally representative sample of farming households in Malawi, implemented from March 2010–March 2011 as part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). These data were used to determine the relationship between farm production diversity and household dietary diversity, and to identify determinants of this relationship. Two indicators of dietary diversity, a modified Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and the Food Consumption Score (FCS), were calculated along with three indicators of farm production diversity including the Simpson’s Index, a metric accounting for both species richness and evenness. In multiple regression analyses, adjusting standard errors for the complex survey design of the IHS3 and controlling for the effects of several covariates on household dietary diversity, farm production diversity was consistently positively associated with dietary diversity (P < 0.0001). The association of increased farm diversity as measured by a combined crop and livestock measure on dietary diversity was significantly greater in woman-headed households compared to those headed by men (HDDS: P = 0.008; FCS: P = 0.076). The positive association of farm diversity with dietary diversity was also greater in wealthier households (P < 0.05). Consumption of legumes, vegetables and fruits was especially strongly associated with greater farm diversity. More diverse production systems may contribute to more diverse household diets. However, this relationship is complex; it may be influenced by gender, wealth, control of household decisions, the relative market-orientation of a household’s agricultural production, and the specific nature of farm diversity.     

Food environments in Malta: Associations with store size and area-level deprivation

Food environments are potential targets for interventions to reduce obesity prevalence, particularly in island settings that are typically dependent on food imports. This observational study aimed to characterise the availability, quality and price of foods and beverages in a nationally representative sample of grocery stores in Malta using the Nutrition Environment Measures Survey for Stores (NEMS-S) instrument, and to examine the association between area-level density of different types of food stores and the likelihood of children living in these areas being overweight or obese. Fieldwork was carried out between March and May 2014. There was a strong positive correlation between store size and NEMS-S score (p = <0.001), suggesting that smaller grocery stores generally offered a smaller range of products and fewer healthy food/beverage options than larger supermarkets. Across all stores, median prices of certain ‘healthier’ versions of foods were more expensive than their less healthy alternatives. A significant association between risk of childhood overweight, and density of confectionery stores in children’s locality of residence, was found (OR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.37). These baseline findings highlight opportunities to improve the food environment in Malta to support more healthful eating, and may be of particular interest to public health practitioners in island settings.     

Pharmaceutical followers

We estimate a model of drug demand and supply that incorporates insurance, advertising, and competition between branded and generic drugs within and across therapeutic classes. We use data on antiulcer drugs from 1991 to 2010. Our simulations show that generics and “me-too” drugs each increased consumer welfare more than $100 million in 2010, holding insurance premiums constant. However, insurance payments in 2010 fell by nearly $1 billion due to generics and rose by over $7 billion due to me-too antiulcer drugs.     

Soft drink prices,sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999–2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks’ sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity – but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m² (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m². Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.     

The consumer loss of the minimum duration for mobile telephone calls

This article estimates price elasticities of demand for the duration of mobile telephone calls for Portugal, as well as the monetary loss per consumer of the existence of a minimum duration of calls. The demand for the duration of calls is estimated using a Tobit model for panel data with individual random effects. The elasticity of demand is found to be small and to vary across firms. At current prices, the average duration of calls ranges between 101 and 109 s, while the estimated average length of calls without minimum duration ranges between 63 and 66 s. Hence, the existence of a minimum duration for calls results in a monetary loss of 35–40% of the average invoice.     

Consumer knowledge and use of information about fish and aquaculture

This paper explores consumers’ knowledge about fish and aquaculture and assesses the use and importance of different information cues about fish. Cross-sectional data were collected in 2008 through a consumer survey (n = 3213) in the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and the UK. Consumers’ knowledge about fish generally, and about aquaculture in particular, was relatively low and differed significantly between countries. Consumers from all countries reported an indication of quality and/or food safety as an information cue when buying fish. The information sources most frequently used by Europeans were labelling and sellers in retail or supermarkets. The Internet was identified by consumers in all of the countries as one of the most important sources of information about sea and freshwater fish products. Policy makers and food marketers are encouraged to develop a simple and easily recognisable mark (relating to quality, food safety and nutrition) to assist consumer decision-making. Information campaigns focusing on issues such as the nutritional benefits of eating fish are also recommended.