Optimal balanced growth in a general multi-sector endogenous growth model with constant returns

I will study a multi-sector endogenous growth model with general constant returns to scale technologies and demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium. I will first demonstrate the existence of a balanced growth equilibrium, by showing that the balanced growth rate associated with the balanced growth equilibrium is solely determined by solving a Frobenius root problem of the price equations derived from the Euler equations and the property of the nonsubstitution theorem. Then I will show the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium without any capital intensity conditions, which is a generalized property proved in the two-sector endogenous growth models by de Guevara et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 21, 115–143, 1997), Bond et al. (J Econ Theory 68, 149–173 1996) and Mino (Int Eco Rev 37, 227–251 1996). The theorem clearly implies that the balanced growth equilibrium has a transition path in the neighborhood of the balanced growth equilibrium. The paper was presented at the conferences “Irregular Growth: Beyond Balanced Growth” held on June 19–21, 2003 in Paris and “Economic Growth and Distribution: On the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” held on June 16–18, 2004 in Lucca, Italy. From the discussion with Alain Venditti at CNRS-GREQAM, Gerhard Sorger at University of Vienna and the conference participants, I have been benefited much by writing this paper. Especially Alain Venditte had given me a chance to take a look at his unpublished paper titled ” Indeterminacy and the Role of Factor Substitutability” jointly written with Kazuo Nishimura at Kyoto University and published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 8. The author also would like to thank an anonymous referee for useful suggestions.     

The non-linear effects of life expectancy on economic growth

This paper shows that improvements in life expectancy (LE) had a non-linear effect on income per capita over the 1940-1980 period as this effect was conditional on each country’s initial level of LE. Whereas higher LE had an initial statistically significant negative impact on income per capita in countries with LE under 43 years in 1940, the opposite is true in countries with initial LE over 53 years.     

Brain drain and economic growth: A dynamic model

The problem of the international migration of educated people is analyzed in the context of a dynamic economy where individuals are faced with three basic decisions: education, acquisition of physical capital and migration. The paper discusses the transitional and steady-state behaviour of such an economy, and in addition incorporates a detailed dynamic analysis of the effects of minimum wages and of the implementation of a migration tax.     

Welfare cost of inflation in a stochastic balanced growth model

There is a large and growing literature on the welfare cost of inflation. However, work in this area tend to find moderate estimates of welfare gains. In this paper we reexamine welfare costs of inflation within a stochastic general equilibrium balanced growth model paying a particular attention to recursive utility, portfolio balance effects, and monetary volatility and monetary policy uncertainty. Our numerical analysis shows that a monetary policy that brings down inflation to the optimum level can have substantial welfare effects. Portfolio adjustment effects seem to be the dominant factor behind the welfare gains.     

A discrete model of optimal economic growth

Contrary to most of the literature on optimal economic growth a discrete rather than a continuous model is investigated. It is shown that in such a discrete model it is easy to account for relatively freely changing functions and parameters. Thus, the production function, labor, the investment ratio, and the parameters for time preference, marginal utility, and depreciation are all allowed to depend on time. Using discrete dynamic programming methods, optimal investment policies are determined explicitly. These generalize important results from previous literature on optimal economic growth.     

International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model

Standard multi-country models do not replicate important features of the international transmission of business cycles, predicting cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are, respectively, too low and too high. In this paper we modify the supply side of a two-country model by adding multiple sectors and trade in intermediate goods. The model generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models. It also predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data. We analyze the relative impact of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation in order to pinpoint the features which move the model's predictions closer to the data.     

Distributive politics and economic growth: the Markovian Stackelberg solution

Summary. We generalize the result of Alesina and Rodrik (1994) by showing that their static solution is also a time consistent Stackelberg solution of a differential game between the government and the median voter.Received: 11 June 2001, Revised: 7 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: O15, O40, E61, C73.We would like to thank Claus Peter Ortlieb, Nikolaus A. Siegfried, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. The first version of this work was written while Holger Strulik was Marie Curie Research Fellow at the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, U.K. A research grant of the European Commission is gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence to: H. Strulik     

Controlling a biological invasion: a non-classical dynamic economic model

This paper analyzes the optimal intertemporal control of a biological invasion. The invasion growth function is non-convex and control costs depend on the invasion size, resulting in a non-classical dynamic optimization problem. We characterize the long run dynamic behavior of an optimally controlled invasion and the corresponding implications for public policy. Both control and the next-period invasion size may be non-monotone functions of the current invasion size; the related optimal time paths may not be monotone or convergent. We provide conditions under which eradication, maintenance control, and no control are optimal policies.      

On the solution of a stochastic optimal growth model

This note discusses a stochastic optimal growth model in which the optimal paths can be obtained by a simple direct argument. The structural characteristics of the model are the infinite horizon, the form of the instantaneous utility function, and uncertainty as a Wiener process in a linear production constraint. The note explains that, for optimality, at each point in time a formally identical problem must be solved. This implies that the optimal saving ratio must be constant.A proof, employing the rules of stochastic calculus, that the ensuing paths are the unique globally optimal paths is also given.We are very grateful to two referees of this journal for their invaluable comments and suggestions.     

Human capital and economic growth revisited: A dynamic panel data study

This paper examines the role of human capital on economic growth by using a large panel of data including 93 countries. Given the cross-sectional character in most of the relevant studies, there is a possibility that when the long-run dynamics are considered, education might not be a significant determinant of growth. Following a dynamic panel data approach, the analysis indicates that education has, indeed, a significant and positive long-run effect on economic growth. Moreover, the size of this effect is stronger as the level of education (primary, secondary, and tertiary) increases. This has a straightforward policy implication that governments taking actions towards an expansion of their higher education may well expect larger gains in terms of higher economic growth in their countries. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Fifty-first International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 13–20, 2001, and also at the conference on Post-Euro Era at the University of Ioannina, Greece, January 27–28, 2000. The authors would like to thank participants in both conferences and, in particular, Nick Apergis for his comments and useful suggestions on earlier drafts. The authors remain responsible for any shortcomings of the paper.     

Potential economic reforms in North Korea: a dynamic general equilibrium model

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine hypothetical market reforms in North Korea. We model partial reform, in which producers choose capital allocations across sectors, with the government still fixing total capital. We also consider two full market reform scenarios. In one, public infrastructure investment remains unchanged, while, in the other, it increases substantially. In all scenarios, we assume a closed economy and a constant military size. Our simulations show little hope for the North Korean economy without boosting infrastructure. Although all of the reforms raise consumption, only significant increases in infrastructure investment bring positive economic growth.     

Education public financing and economic growth: an endogenous growth model versus evidence

Using an Endogenous Growth Model with physical and human capital and unemployment (Mauro and Carmeci in J Macroecon 25:123–137, 2003), we study the effects of subsidies to education in economic growth. According to the model, we conclude that government subsidies to education only enhance economic growth conditional on unemployment and that this relationship is negatively influenced by unemployment. We provide evidence from a broad panel data of countries that confirms the importance of unemployment in the relationship between subsidies to education and economic growth but dismiss its importance as a direct determinant of economic growth.      

Basic needs fulfillment and economic growth: A simultaneous model

The relationship between basic needs fulfillment and productivity change is examined using a growth model which is explicitly simultaneous in national output and generalized measures of health, nutrition, and education. Consistent and relatively efficient parameter estimates are obtained through the application of three-stage least squares, using data from a large sample of poor countries in Africa, Asia, and Southern America. The results give support to the hypothesis that changes in basic welfare are strong contributors to labor productivity change, and conversely. In addition, they suggest substantial differences in the pattern of simultaneous interaction at different income and welfare levels.     

A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. The model is then used to generate nowcasts, predictions of the recent past and current state of the economy. In a pseudo-real-time setting, we show that the DFM outperforms univariate benchmarks, as well as other commonly used nowcasting models, such as MIDAS and bridge regressions.     

Human capital and economic growth in an overlapping generations model

The paper describes an aggregative optimal growth model, the essential features of which are that individuals are mortal and obtain their labor skill through educational training. The process of human capital formation is described by an education function which relates the pass rate to the educational expenditure per student. Two alternative scenarios, private and public education regimes, are separately investigated. Under the decentralized education regime, risk-neutral individuals borrow to finance their education when young. Under the centralized education regime, the cost of education is financed by taxes imposed on the workers in the economy, and the central government maximizes a long-term social target function. The equilibria of both regimes are analyzed and various comparative static results derived. It is shown that educational investment in a decentralized equilibrium is higher than that in the centralized steady state. We also establish that there exists a time discount rate at which or above which the decentralized per capita consumption exceeds that of the centralized steady state whereas for time rates of discount sufficiently near the population growth rate, the above result will be reversed.     

The institutional foundation of China's economic growth

China's economic growth is (undoubtedly, undeniably, unquestionably) regarded as a miracle due to the changes it has brought to the lives of the Chinese as well as to the global economic structure. This paper analyzes China's economic growth from the perspective of institutional reforms. The main argument is that, through the redefinition of property rights, the operation costs of China's planned economy under full public ownership have been reduced dramatically. Human resources have greatly improved in terms of productivity and creativity, thus providing China with competitive advantages in the global market.     

Knightian uncertainty and poverty trap in a model of economic growth

This paper explores how Knightian uncertainty affects dynamic properties in an economic growth model. The decision-making theory employed in the analysis is the theory of expected utility under a non-additive probability measure, i.e., the Choquet expected utility model of preference. We apply this decision-making theory to an overlapping generations model where producers face “uncertainty” in their technologies. When the producer is averse to uncertainty, the firm's profit function may not be differentiable. Therefore, the firm's decision to invest and hire labor becomes rigid for a certain measurable range of real interest rates. In dynamic equilibrium, the existence of firm-level rigidity causes discontinuity in the wage function; this makes multiple equilibria the more likely outcomes under the log utility and Cobb–Douglas production functions. In this paper, we show that even if aversion to uncertainty is small, the “poverty trap” can arise for a wide range of parameter values.     

International trade and industrialization in a non-scale model of economic growth

The relationship between international trade, growth, and industrialization is analyzed in a two-sector non-scale growth model. The counterfactual prediction of new growth theories regarding a positive effect of population growth on per capita income growth is shown to be alleviated by allowing for international trade. While the growth-trade linkage is positive in most cases, it is negative if the rate of population growth is relatively large and the initial capital stock is relatively small. As the timing of the switch from autarky to free trade affects the process of industrialization, trade policy can influence structural change and long-run growth rates even in non-scale growth models.     

A dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with leisure

Summary. The main goal in this paper is to analyze an economic model of endogenous growth where human capital accumulation acts as the engine propelling economic activity. The added ingredient in our model is that agents derive utility from consumption and leisure, where leisure is defined as the amount of time devoted to those activities augmented by the level of education. Under regular conditions we show that there is a unique globally stable balanced growth path. We also provide a characterization of the behavior of our economic variables along the transition. Received: May 26, 1998; revised version: September 9, 1999     

The service paradox and endogenous economic growth

“Stagnant services” [Baumol, W.J., Blackman, S.A.B., Wolff, E.N., 1989. Productivity and American Leadership. MIT Press, Cambridge (Mass.)] are characterised by low productivity growth and rising prices, but also, and paradoxically, by output growth proportional to the rest of the economy, and hence by an expanding employment share, with a negative effect on aggregate productivity growth. This paper considers that many of these services, inclusive of education, health and cultural services, contribute to human capital formation, thus enhancing growth. This effect is distinguished according to whether it is a side-effect of spending on services or an intentional investment by households, as in Lucas’ model [Lucas, R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3–42.] Preferences for services are assumed to rise with income. The main result is that the productivity of stagnant services and their quality displayed in raising human capital play a central role in opposing the negative Baumol effect on growth, and in reinforcing the explanation of the paradox.