Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

The Agricapital Group

The Agricapital Group, affiliated to the British Society for Social Responsibility in Scinece (BSSRS), arose from a series of meetings to explore the polotical forces affecting food production and consumption from a broad socialist perspective in 1975-76. The meetings drew people directly involved in farming and food distribution, from the ecological movement, and from academic backgrounds, such as agricultural research, nutrition and economics. Debate on the left about farming and food production had become bogged down in single issues, like land ownership or a cheap food policy; although these were, and are, important subjects there eas a need to set them in a wider framework.     

Food supply in Peru: Dependence and transnational monopolies

The Peruvian food supply system is characterized by the stagnation of agricultural production, by the increasing control of oligopolies and by dependence on imports. Traditional consumption patterns are changing and this has contributed to the national agricultural stagnation, the agro-industrial oligopoly and the increasing vulnerability of the country's food supplies. Against this background, the author reviews current strategies and policies for farming and food and resources. An alternative reform of the food supply system is then proposed.     

Climate change and trade in agriculture

Agricultural productivity in both developing and developed countries will have to improve to achieve substantial increases in food production by 2050 while land and water resources become less abundant and the effects of climate change introduce much uncertainty. Already less resilient production areas will suffer the most, as temperatures will rise further in tropical and semi-tropical latitudes and water-scarce regions will face even drier conditions. International trade plays an important role in compensating, albeit partially, for regional changes in productivity that are induced by climate change. While a well-functioning international trade system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges, trade policies as such are imperfect instruments to induce less emissions globally. A well-functioning international trading system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges. Hence welfare gains from reforms to trade policies may be greater than normally measured if they also reduce GHG emissions globally.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Fish farming in Europe: Commercial and political dimensions

The author argues that, because of considerable scope for increased production efficiency, farmed fish will provide strong competition for caught fish, and eventually for animal protein from land agriculture. Demand response will be tempered by low price elasticities, while certain other factors (such as the wider choice offered by the growing range of farmed fish species) will stimulate consumption. In all countries, governments have a role to play-eg undertaking basic biological research. This role for government, together with the challenge presented by fish farming to its competitors, explains why politics will be important in determining the rate at which the new industry will expand.     

Land consolidation,specialization and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Despite rapid population growth, increasing land pressure and urbanization, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have not intensified their production in a sustainable manner and farming systems remain predominantly subsistence-oriented. In response, developing country governments increasingly implement programs that promote crop intensification and more commercially-oriented agricultural systems. Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP), launched in 2007, is one such example. However, despite its apparent success in raising production of several priority crops, there are legitimate concerns about the food and nutrition security implications for households that are encouraged to consolidate their land, specialize in their production, and increasingly rely on markets for their food needs. Using recent household survey data and a propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, we find that participation in land consolidation activities had ambiguous consumption effects: it positively impacted on consumption of roots and tubers, but had a negative effect on meat, fish and fruits consumption and the potential availability of vitamin B12 in participants’ diets. This calls for a review of CIP implementation practices to enhance the program’s food and nutrition security outcomes, with improvements in market functioning and market access being potential starting points.     

Food health risk perceptions among consumers,farmers, and traders of leafy vegetables in Nairobi

Urban and peri-urban farming and supply chains are becoming increasingly important for delivering perishable produce to the urban centers of the developing world to meet the demands of a growing population. However, some production and handling practises and a short supply chain may expose consumers to substantial health risks. This study of consumers, peri-urban farmers, and traders attempts to quantify subjective risk judgments with regard to food safety hazards, and examines the extent of discrepancies in perceived risk relating to vegetables in domestic urban markets among the three groups. A conceptual model was developed to elicit subjective risk perceptions for a multidimensional construct. In general, differences were found between respondent categories in terms of both specific source risks and overall risks. Differences were also found with respect to the socio-demographic and structural determinants of the levels of perceived risks. These findings can help improve policies to promote food safety and reduce risky food handling along the supply chain, and present opportunities for change.     

Viewpoint: Future of food safety and nutrition - Seeking win-wins,coping with trade-offs

The possible implications of global trends such as climate change and resource scarcity on food security are high on the political agendas. While the food sufficiency aspect of food security takes centre-stage, the future of food safety and nutritional quality of diets often seems to be taken for granted. This paper builds on the results of a foresight study on EU food safety and nutrition towards 2050 to discuss potential future points of tension for food policy. Increasing food production while using fewer resources and reducing food waste while ensuring food safety are just two examples. Innovation at different levels in the food system will be needed to address future challenges. Fast technology uptake and the launch of new food-related products can put pressure on the ability to deliver timely risk assessments, the scope of which might also need to cover other legitimate factors. Future food policies need to be more sensitive to impacts on food safety and nutrition and health aspects. A holistic food systems approach must be taken to identify and discuss in advance possible tensions and trade-offs and to address them upfront in a systematic and transparent manner.     

Estimates of returns to scale,elasticity of substitution,and the thrifty food plan meal poverty rate from a direct household meal production function

Many nutritional policies are designed to make home food production more affordable and yet very little is actually known about the home food production process. A better understanding of home food production can be used to help explain shortcomings in current nutrition policies and consequently help in designing better nutrition policies. This paper provides results from several home meal production function specifications that are rather robust. The median returns to scale and elasticity of substitution between money and time is in the 1.2–1.9 range and .33–.56 range, respectively, indicating increasing returns to scale but difficulty in substituting money for time in home meal production. A home ‘meal poverty rate’ is estimated, which is the percentage of the sample that produces fewer meals at home than consistent with dietary guidelines. The estimated home meal poverty rate is about 85%, which is consistent with recent research taking a less rigorous approach. Though the approach taken here is novel, the overall message is consistent with the recent literature: time is a more important factor in achieving nutritional targets than money.     

Achieving food security in Central Asia — current challenges and policy research needs

This paper introduces the papers of this Special Issue on Achieving Food Security in Central Asia. Identifying the current challenges, it enlists the information gaps and policy research needs for accelerating the reform process in the food, agriculture and natural resource sectors of the Central Asian Republics. The paper concludes by calling for identifying policies and institutional arrangements that facilitate economic reforms that will lead to poverty reduction, increased food security, and sustainable use of natural resources.     

Sequestering carbon in soils of agro-ecosystems

Soils of the world’s agroecosystems (croplands, grazing lands, rangelands) are depleted of their soil organic carbon (SOC) pool by 25–75% depending on climate, soil type, and historic management. The magnitude of loss may be 10 to 50 tons C/ha. Soils with severe depletion of their SOC pool have low agronomic yield and low use efficiency of added input. Conversion to a restorative land use and adoption of recommended management practices, can enhance the SOC pool, improve soil quality, increase agronomic productivity, advance global food security, enhance soil resilience to adapt to extreme climatic events, and mitigate climate change by off-setting fossil fuel emissions. The technical potential of carbon (C) sequestration in soils of the agroecosystems is 1.2–3.1 billion tons C/yr. Improvement in soil quality, by increase in the SOC pool of 1 ton C/ha/yr in the root zone, can increase annual food production in developing countries by 24–32 million tons of food grains and 6–10 million tons of roots and tubers. The strategy is to create positive soil C and nutrient budgets through adoption of no-till farming with mulch, use of cover crops, integrated nutrient management including biofertilizers, water conservation, and harvesting, and improving soil structure and tilth.     

Farmers' consumption of an imported cereal and the cash/foodcrop decision: An example from Senegal

The effects of key agricultural policies on Senegalese farmers are analysed through a survey combining farming systems research methods, family budgets, dietary and anthropometric studies for the same rural households. Policies impact their food consumption through farm and non-farm incomes, prices of inputs, extension and research, and the prices of basic foods. Food consumption is closely related to family success in mixed cropping, but millet remains the basic rural food. Although rice has deeply penetrated rural markets, a maintenance of export earnings will require simultaneous gains in yields for both cash and traditional foodcrops.     

AIDS and food production in East and Central Africa: a research outline

AIDS has penetrated at least 42 countries in Africa. Death of Africans usually occurs within 3 years of diagnosis. Not much is currently known about the demographics of the disease or about its impact on economic and social behavior, farming, and food production. There is currently a food crisis in Africa, so it is appropriate to study how much of an impact this disease has on future food production. In order to study the problem, one must predict the spread of AIDS. 2nd, one must infer how labor loss effects current rural production. Labor loss will cause changes in organization of production, technology, and types of crops grown. As a crisis increases, certain groups will be cut out of the food distribution. Characterizations such as these allow the mapping of areas vulnerable to labor loss. Field analysis and modeling must substantiate the theories and predictions. This paper describes the research design which will be used by 2 researchers from the Overseas Development Group of the University of East Anglia to measure the impact of AIDS on food production, working initially in a high HIV - prevalent area in Uganda.     

Population density,migration, and the returns to human capital and land: Insights from Indonesia

Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, we examine the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes using panel data from Indonesia, combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and non-farm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia we find that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. The effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia’s more successful rural development experiences.     

Where’s the beef? Cattle producers’ response to endangered species listings

Agricultural production in the United States relies on extensive land use that sometimes conflicts with federal policies to protect wildlife habitat. A prime example of this conflict is the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which can impose significant penalties on landowners and producers who destroy the habitat of listed species. While prior research has measured the effects of ESA regulations on land values and natural resources, no research has identified the consequences of listing a species on livestock production. In this study, we measure the effect of ESA listings on beef cattle production in the central United States. Results suggest that listing likely has a small positive effect on cattle stocks.     

Matters of food and farming in Asia

Leaving aside the plantation enclaves, the problems of food and farming in Asia are centred on subsistence farming. This, in spite of recent improvements in farming techniques, remains subject to natural hazards, population pressure and risks which only those with ready access to land, labour, capital and know-how are able to face. By comparison, small cultivators, tenants and landless labourers suffer serious disadvantages. These can be reduced only as a result of reforms which bring security of tenure, transfers of land and a just system of land tax combined with public works programmes. Thus economic growth, coupled with social equilibrium and political stability, could be achieved.     

Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

Consumers’ willingness-to-pay for organic conversion-grade food: Evidence from five EU countries

In recent years, in overall value, the EU has become a net importer of organic food to supply increasing demand. Financial support for farmers during the conversion period has been made to help expand organic production as this was seen as a barrier to conversion. Meanwhile, farmers have been marketing products produced in this conversion period and labelled as such, the extent to which is described here for the UK, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland and Italy. Consumers’ attitudes towards, and willingness-to-pay for, conversion-grade food in these countries is examined. It was found that consumers would be prepared to pay a premium for conversion-grade produce of around half the premium for organic produce with vegetables attracting a higher premium than meat. Finally, the potential of policies for marketing conversion-grade products to encourage more conversion is examined, together with barriers to achieving this. It is concluded that barriers to marketing such products, particularly from retailers, will be formidable. Thus, alternative policies are suggested.