Islamist terrorism and the status of women

We investigate the effect of Islamist terrorist activity on women's legal position in society, using data for 171 countries between 1970 and 2016. To identify causal effects, we exploit the prevalence of Islamist terrorism in neighboring countries as an exogenous source of variation, arguing that regional terrorism affects local terrorism through contagion effects. We show that increased activity by Islamist terrorist groups is linked to lower legal status of women. By contrast, we find that neither Islam per se nor other types of terrorism have comparable effects. This reinforces the notion that Islamist terrorism is singularly interested and effective in weakening women's rights. Our results are consistent with a rational-economic model of terrorism, where Islamist terrorists purposefully use violence to maximize political utility, while governments make concessions that constrain the role of women because the costs of compliance are lower than the harm from continued Islamist terrorism.     

On the origin of domestic and international terrorism

We analyze the determinants of the origin of domestic and international terrorism in a large panel data set of 159 countries spanning from 1970 to 2007. We show that terror increases with GDP per capita, a higher polity score measuring a more open and competitive political system and experiences of domestic conflict, anarchy and regime transitions. Our evidence thus contradicts the notion that terrorism is rooted in economic deprivation or that strongly autocratic regimes breed more terrorists. Rather we show that weak or failing states are an incubator for terrorism. We also show that the causes of domestic terror and international terror are similar.     

The effects of government intervention on the market for corporate terrorism insurance

Nine OECD countries presently have national terrorism insurance programs based on some type of public–private risk sharing. While such arrangements have helped provide the necessary insurance capacity in the post-September 11, 2001 era, little is known about the effect of such governmental intervention on terrorism insurance markets. This paper focuses on the United States, where the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) provides insurers with no cost federal reinsurance up to an industry-wide loss of $100 billion. We present an empirical analysis to compare how insurers' diversification behavior varies between property coverage (no governmental intervention) and terrorism coverage (with government intervention). We find evidence that insurers in the U.S. are much less diversified for terrorism coverage than they are for property lines of coverage. We interpret these findings as tentative evidence for moral hazard caused by the governmental intervention under TRIA.     

The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)

The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socio-economic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost is confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of current economic opportunities for individuals the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for them to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is positively associated with real GDP per capita.     

Does terrorism reduce life satisfaction?

We study the effect of terrorism on life satisfaction for a sample of 81 countries over the 1994–2009 period. We find that terrorism is robustly associated with less life satisfaction. This effect, however, translates into only modest social costs.     

The short- and long-run relationship between the illicit drug business and terrorism

We study the effect of the illicit drug business on terrorism for a sample of 58 countries for the 1984–2007 period. Consistent with the notion of a crime-terror nexus, we find that in the long run, higher drug prices are associated with more terrorism. In the short run, however, increases in drug prices lead to less terrorism, potentially because terrorist groups respond to higher drug business attractiveness by prioritizing criminal over terrorist activity.     

A strategic analysis of the war against transnational terrorism

We study a two stage game in which a transnational terrorist organization interacts with an arbitrary number of countries that may differ in their political or economic power, their military effectiveness, the benefit from cooperating against terrorism and the value they assign to damage. Only a subset of countries that emerges endogenously takes proactive measures to fight the terrorist, while all countries incur defensive expenditures to protect their soil. We characterize analytically the pure strategy subgame perfect equilibrium of the game and show how the equilibrium strategies depend on the key model parameters. We provide an algorithm to find the endogenous set of cooperating countries based on their benefit from cooperation and their political/economic power.     

Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration

We analyze the influence of terrorism on migration for 152 countries during 1976-2000. We find robust evidence that terrorism is among the ‘push factors’ of skilled migration, whereas it is not robustly associated with average migration.     

The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows

Previous work has shown that terrorism has significant negative impact on countries' economies. We explore this relationship in more detail. Using an unbalanced panel of more than 160 countries for up to 25 years and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) we show a decrease in foreign direct investment (FDI) as a consequence of terrorism. We also find evidence that FDI flows are more sensitive to terrorism than either portfolio investments or external debt flows. Finally, we test the hypothesis that terrorism has negative spill‐over effects on FDI flows into neighboring countries and find evidence that cultural, but not geographical, closeness matters.     

New wine in old wineskins? Growth,terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa

Since 1995, growth in sub-Saharan Africa has averaged more than 5% per year reversing a two-decade decline of real income per capita. In this paper, we explore the extent to which the nascent growth is sustainable or not due to higher incidences of terrorism and commodity price declines. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 46 countries from 1968 to 2004. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel growth regression analysis and quantile regressions. We estimate the economic and statistical effect of terrorism on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, controlling for a variety of other factors. We then investigate the extent to which there appears to be a structural break in the estimated relationships. We find that the terrorist-oriented fragility of sub-Sahara has increased in the most recent period. We find that most of the fragility can be explained by the growth in countries that are primary fuel exporters. Indeed, our evidence points to the fact that resource-rich countries have not done an adequate job of investing in counter-terrorist policies.     

Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of terrorism in the context of Pakistan. The determinants of terrorism include various socio-economic variables like GDP per capita, unemployment, political rights, inflation, poverty, inequality and literacy level. A long-run relationship between the variables is analyzed by applying Johansen co-integration technique. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is applied to determine the stability of the long run relationship between terrorism and various variables and also to streamline the short-run and long run impacts of the variables on terrorism. In general, the results revealed that there exists a long run relationship between various social and economic variables and terrorism while the results of ECM revealed that about 89% convergence towards equilibrium takes place every year. Similarly, important results are obtained by short run and long run elasticities estimated under the Error Correction Model. Impulse response analysis reveals that the impacts of one standard deviation shock given to random disturbances on the systems of variables have mixed results. Some variables have increasing trend over the time period, some have decreasing trends, while some have fluctuating and cyclical trends.     

Poverty, political freedom, and the roots of terrorism in developing countries: An empirical assessment

We find that political freedom has a significant and non-linear effect on domestic terrorism, but has no statistically significant effect on transnational terrorism. Geography and fractionalization limit a country’s ability to curb terrorism, while strong legal institutions deter terrorism.     

Earthquakes and terrorism: The long lasting effect of seismic shocks

The literature on the effect of shocks on civil conflicts has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this paper, we study the relationship between earthquakes and terrorism. In the short run, the destruction generated by a medium-range earthquake reduces the opportunity cost of rebelling against the government. Since destruction of infrastructures in these cases is limited, the state keeps most of its coercive capacity, which reduces the chances of full-fledged conflict but leaves open the possibility of low intensity rebellious acts such as terrorism. In the medium run the destruction of tangible assets can lead to the closing down of weak firms, the introduction of new technologies, the improvement of productivity and the increase in wealth inequality We propose a new algorithm to classify terrorism events as domestic or transnational, and show that the likelihood of a domestic terrorist event increases with the previous occurrence of an earthquake. Using earthquakes as an instrument for income, we also show that development has a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of terrorist events.     

Defining and exploring the terrorism field: Toward an intertheoretic, agent-based approach

Drawing upon organizational design, contingency, and field theory, we outline a conceptual model for studying terrorism at the field level and argue that existing computational organizational theory could be extended to enable such inquiry. We introduce the terrorism field as the system of dynamic interaction between the terrorism, counterterrorism and political governance industries, defining the overarching functions of each. We then argue that intertheoretic, field-level inquiry could lead to explicit conceptual and computational models with significant benefits for researchers and policy makers, to include enhancing understanding of the proximate environmental conditions that are deleterious to the use of terrorism by political challengers. Using POW-ER, an illustrative field-level case of a basic terrorist attack is then modeled based on two archetypes of terrorist organizational forms emerging from the new terrorism debate: 1) hierarchy and 2) network, and two treatments: 1) applying counterterrorism techniques and 2) reducing knowledge within the terrorist organization. Preliminary findings compared to the baseline case are discussed, as well as implications for future research.     

Forecast performance in times of terrorism

Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty and assess the forecasting performance of market-based and professional inflation and exchange rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, the performance of both market-based and expert forecasts is significantly worse during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange rate forecasts.     

Environmental terrorism: a critique

As terrorism once again makes news headlines and attracts renewed attention from scholars, the usage of terms related to terrorism may well outpace the development of sound conceptualization of these themes. A case in point is environmental terrorism about which a small body of literature has already been written. The objective of this paper is to examine the theme of environmental terrorism by applying critiques of the more developed but similarly problematic area of environmental security. Three critiques of environmental security literature argue that there is insufficient clarity on how natural resources are linked to conflict, that the term ‘environment’ is not sufficiently clear as a guide to or boundary of a research area, and that the term ‘security’ prioritizes a realist, state-centric perspective that provides a limited perspective on relationships between natural resources and conflict. In this paper, the theme of environmental terrorism is subjected to parallel critiques as a way to examine the usefulness of this concept. Environmental terrorism, as a label, may be only partially helpful as a guide to future research that would also be aided by context-specific examinations of vulnerable natural resource and energy systems.     

Opportunities and challenges created by terrorism

Besides being pushed by technical development and pulled by the demand for hi-tech products, technology is also often influenced greatly by the sudden impacts from other external environments. As shown by the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks (2001), Bali bombings (2002, 2005), Madrid bombings (2004), and London bombings (2005), some technologies have been fundamentally affected by terrorism, especially those concerning globalization, infrastructure, corporations, education, and individuals. Using system dynamics (SD) methodology, our paper first examines the causes of terrorism and why the United States was chosen as the target for the 9/11 terror attacks. The concept of SD helps analysts realize the variation of a complicated system and perceive how an internal feedback loop within a system impacts the whole system's behavior. After suffering the 9/11 attacks, the American-led coalition carefully considered how to study and develop effective methods for anti-terrorism strategies. These anti-terrorism efforts will have a major impact on technology development, and many opportunities and challenges are likely to arise from such development. Based on the qualitative analytic approach of causal loops, this article explores in detail the opportunities and challenges for technology development prompted by terrorism. The contribution of our study lies in appropriately analyzing links between terrorism and technology development in order to explain the present relevant technology situation and to initiate a discussion of future technology development trends.     

A multivariate approach in measuring socio-economic development of MENA countries

Socio-economic development of countries is a complex problem that has been constantly elaborated upon over the past few decades. An analysis of a country's welfare cannot be limited to either economic or social factors; it must be determined by combining both of these aspects. As technology has advanced, those indicators crucial for describing this phenomenon have also changed. internet connectedness has been introduced as an indicator of socio-economic development. Furthermore, the development of a health system is essential for a country's development. The aim of this paper has been to present one synthesized indicator that is able to quantitatively demonstrate any country's welfare. The statistical I-distance method is thoroughly explained and has been applied to 22 countries. Crucial indicators for ranking are also elaborated.     

Modeling quality demand with data from Household Budget Surveys: An application to meat and fish products in Greece

In this paper, we employ a method to examine the factors affecting quality choice by Greek households, using cross-sectional survey data. We illustrate the method using the raw data of the 2004/05 Household Budget Survey for meat and fish products. Quality elasticities of total food expenditure and household's age structure are derived. To cope with the zero expenditure problem, Heckman's two-step method is employed. Results generally suggest that several socio-economic factors affect quality demand for meat and fish.     

The empirical relationship between commitment enhancement devices and terrorism

An extant theoretical literature attributes the high lethality of violent extremist religious sects (VERSs) to their comparative advantage in assembling coalitions of highly committed operatives and identifies sacrifice and stigma (S&S) and social service provision (SSP) as the primary commitment enhancement devices VERSs employ. However, lack of direct measures of the VERSs’ deployment of these devices has impeded efforts to test the hypothesized effects of S&S and SSP on terrorism. This article exploits the relationship between exogenous variation in the marginal productivities of S&S and SSP as inputs in the production of commitment and variation in VERSs’ employment of these inputs to identify proxies for S&S and SSP. Using data from 158 countries, our cross-sectional estimates of the effects of S&S and SSP on the impact of terrorism are significant and larger than the effects of geographic and political variables that are consistently reported to be both significant and substantial.