闲暇效应与内生增长——基于中国和瑞典数据的分析研究

本文综合利用社会学与心理学的研究成果对闲暇的经济含义进行了扩展,认为闲暇对生产具有积极的互补效应,并通过将该类效应引入到带人力资本的卢卡斯内生增长模型,利用中国和瑞典的相关数据进行分析。本文的计量分析显示,瑞典的闲暇增加对经济增长具有正作用,但中国与此相反,因而瑞典的技术进步、人口状态等因素对增长的作用优于中国。最后,本文建议推动休闲经济发展、适时推进弹性工作制,实现"工作—闲暇平衡"。     

基于我国票据市场发展的创新与思考

在经历过80年代的起步发育到90年代的规范、发展,我国票据市场近年来呈现持续快速的发展趋势,票据融资功能在金融市场中的地位日益重要,票据市场成为了货币市场重要的组成部分.本文将对我国近十年票据市场情况进行系统分析,尝试找出我国票据市场发展进程中存在的主要问题,进而对创新我国票据市场发展提出一些思考与建议.     

The structure of decision schemes with cardinal preferences

This paper replacesGibbard’s (Econometrica 45:665-681, 1977) assumption of strict ordinal preferences by themore natural assumption of cardinal preferences on the set pure social alternatives and we also admit indifferences among the alternatives. By following a similar line of reasoning to the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theoremin the deterministic framework, we first show that if a decision scheme satisfies strategy proofness and unanimity, then there is an underlying probabilistic neutrality result which generates an additive coalitional power function. This result is then used to prove that a decision scheme which satisfies strategy proofness and unanimity can be represented as a weak random dictatorship. A weak random dictatorship assigns each individual a chance to be a weak dictator. An individual has weak dictatorial power if the support of the social choice lottery is always a subset of his/her maximal utility set. In contrast to Gibbard’s complete characterization of randomdictatorship, we also demonstrate with an example that strategy proofness and unanimity are sufficient but not necessary conditions for a weak random dictatorship.     

Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy

We consider a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. The model allows blocks of parameters to change at endogenously estimated points of time. Contrary to the Lucas critique, there are large changes at certain points of time in the parameters associated with monetary policy that do not correspond to changes in “reduced-form” parameters for inflation or the unemployment rate. However, the structure of the U.S. economy has evolved considerably over the postwar period, with an apparent reduction in the late 1980s in the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation, though not on the unemployment rate. Related, we find changes in the Phillips curve tradeoff between inflation and cyclical unemployment (measured as the deviation from the time-varying steady-state unemployment rate implied by the model) in the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s.     

Endogenous specialization of heterogeneous innovative activities of firms under the technological spillovers

This paper proposes a reduced form model of dynamic duopoly in the context of heterogeneous innovations framework. Two agents invest into expansion of variety of available products and into the improvement of quality of existing products simultaneously. Every newly introduced product has its own dimension of quality-improving innovations and there is a continuum of possible new products. In the area of quality innovations the costless imitation effect is modelled while in the area of variety expanding innovations agents are cooperating with each other. As a result the specialization of innovative activity is observed. This specialization arises from strategic interactions of agents in both fields of innovative activity and is endogenously defined from the dynamics of the model.     

A practical log‐linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA

A practical aggregation method for heterogeneous log‐linear functions is presented. Inequality measures are employed in the construction of a simple but exact aggregate representation of an economy. Three macroeconomic applications are discussed: the aggregation of the Lucas supply function, the time‐inconsistent behaviour of an egalitarian social planner facing heterogeneous discount rates, and the case of a simple heterogeneous growth model. In the latter application, aggregate CPS data is used to show that the slowdown that followed the first oil shock is worse than usually thought, and that the ‘new economy’ growth resurgence is not as strong as it appears.

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Imitation and price competition in a differentiated market

We study the stable market outcome that evolves in a spatially differentiated market when price-competing firms choose actions by imitation of the most profitable firm. We compare and contrast the stable outcomes under two imitation procedures: one, where each firm immediately imitates the most profitable firm, and the other when a firm imitates another firm only if it is more profitable while being “sufficiently similar” (in context of the market segment it operates in) or “sufficiently close”. In either case, the symmetric pure strategy Nash equilibrium is always a stable outcome. However, when imitation of the most profitable firm is immediate and market differentiation is ‘moderate’, states with prices lower than the Nash equilibrium are also stable. In contrast, when imitation of the most profitable firm is more gradual and market differentiation is below a threshold, states with prices above the Nash equilibrium are also stable. Thus, while competitive evolutionary pressure in this imitation based model does result in the Nash equilibrium always being stable, other outcomes may be stable as well. Interestingly, the states that are stable under gradual imitation give the firms a higher profit than the stable states under immediate imitation.     

Formal education and public knowledge

In this paper, I examine the transitional dynamics of an economy populated by individuals who split their time between acquiring a formal education, producing final goods, and innovating.The paper has two objectives: (i) uncovering the macroeconomic circumstances that favored the rise of formal education; (ii) to reconcile the remarkable growth of the education sector with the constancy of other key macroeconomic variables, such as the interest rate, the consumption-output ratio, and the growth rate of per capita income (Kaldor facts).The transitional dynamics of human capital growth models, such as Lucas (1998), would attribute the arrival of education to the diminishing marginal productivity of physical capital. Conversely, the model proposed here suggests that it is the rate of learning that catches up with the rate of return on physical capital. As technical knowledge expands, the rate of return on education increases, inducing individuals to stay longer in school. The model's transitional paths are matched with long run U.S. educational and economic data.     

Variable markups in the long-run: A generalization of preferences in growth models

This paper introduces variable markups in a horizontal-differentiation growth model by considering a larger class of preferences that nests the classic “CES” specification usually present in the workhorse love-for-variety models. Our first result is to obtain a generalized characterization of the Euler condition for this broader class of utility functions: in our model, the Euler rule features a supplementary term aiming at compensating the consumer for variations in the preference for variety along the consumption level. We are then also able to demonstrate that in our generalized framework, the economy’s balanced growth path displays both endogenous markups and a strictly positive growth rate of the number of available varieties (being the engine of growth). Finally, we show that under endogenous markups, the economy’s growth rate and firms’ market power can display a negative correlation, as opposed to the standard result obtained in the CES framework.     

中国汽车制造业生产格局时空演变特征与前景展望

基于1979—2018年中国省际汽车产量,采用Theil系数、马尔科夫链等方法分析中国汽车制造业生产格局演变特征及趋势,研究发现:改革开放40多年来,中国汽车制造业生产格局由高度集中演变为相对集中,省际汽车产量的Top3占比由58.6%下降至32.22%,Top5占比由74.14%下降至48.64%,Top7占比由82.63%下降至60.79%;中国汽车制造业经历了快速增长、高速增长、中低速增长3个发展阶段;中国汽车制造业的整车产能利用率偏低,汽车生产与市场的空间分离呈现增大趋势;汽车产量的Theil系数呈现下降趋势,不同年份的总体差异主要来源于区域内部差异;中国省际汽车产量四种类型(高产量、较高产量、中低产量及低产量)保持不变的概率均大于0.85,不同类型的转换仅限于相邻类型之间。展望“十四五”时期,中国汽车生产规模仍将保持在2500万辆以上,改善过于依赖合资企业的发展模式,强化中国品牌汽车企业对产业空间的主导能力,通过兼并重组提高产能利用率,围绕“一带一路”沿线地区加快国际化进程,积极构建面向国内外两个市场的产业空间布局等是中国汽车制造业“十四五”时期的重要任务。     

Infrastructure and productivity: An extension to private infrastructure and it productivity

This paper incorporates both public and private infrastructure within the framework of a nonlinear production function. The theoretical model specifies a technological growth rate as a nonlinear function of government infrastructure and private infrastructure generated by the information sector of the economy—cable, wireless stations, satellites, internet facilities, broadcasting, etc. The time trend is included to capture the effect of all other variables. The empirical estimates generated by the model imply increasing returns to scale for the US economy in the last few years. The evaluation of the growth accounting equation implies that information technology was the largest contributing component to growth during the expansion of the 1990s.     

Public support to innovation and imitation in a non-scale growth model

This paper studies technology policy within a version of Jones's [1995. R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 103, 759–784] non-scale R&D-based growth framework that incorporates imitation of foreign techniques. In the model, imitation is the most important source of productivity growth at the beginning of the convergence process, whereas innovation dominates later on. In addition, the transitional dynamics of the model can account for well-known empirical regularities regarding the relationship between the level of economic development and public support to technology innovation and imitation. The paper shows as well that, even though policy in Jones-type non-scale models has no long-run growth effects, level effects can be substantial.     

The Roles of Economic Freedom and Regulatory Quality in Creating a Favorable Environment for Investment in Energy R&D,Infrastructure, and Capacity

Sustainable investment in energy requires a favorable economic and regulatory environment. A random effects model (PLS estimations), using a four‐year panel, reveals the growth rate in real per capita GDP for OECD nations as an increasing function of both economic freedom and regulatory quality. These results underscore the critical roles that economic freedom and regulatory quality play, directly and indirectly, in creating an environment conducive to sustainable investment in energy R&D and infrastructure.     

Talent — Innate or acquired? Theoretical considerations and their implications for talent management

In order to contribute to the theoretical understanding of talent management, this paper aims to shed light on the meaning of the term ‘talent’ by answering the following question: Is talent predominantly an innate construct, is it mostly acquired, or does it result from the interaction between (specific levels of) nature and nurture components? Literature stemming from different disciplines has been reviewed to summarize the main arguments in support of each of the three perspectives. Subsequently, these arguments are mapped on a continuum ranging from completely innate to completely acquired. We argue that an organization's position on this continuum entails important implications for its design of talent management practices, which we discuss extensively. By providing guidelines on how an organization's talent management system can be shaped in accordance with their respective talent definition, this paper is particularly useful to HR practitioners.     

The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing

This paper develops new evidence on the hazard function for strike duration, and on cyclical changes in this function, using data on contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing industries. A flexible duration model is estimated, and it is found that the hazard rate is generally a U-shaped function of strike age. The level of industrial production is found to have a significant positive effect on the hazard rate: strike duration is countercyclical. A convenient parametric model of heterogeneity and duration dependence is introduced, in which the logit of the hazard rate is a polynomial function of strike age, up to a random individual effect drawn from a beta distribution. Estimates of this ‘beta-logit’ model indicate that it is difficult to detect the influence of unobserved heterogeneity on the aggregate hazard function for strike duration.     

城市广化与城市深化对中国经济增长的影响

本文尝试把城市化进程分为城市广化和城市深化两个过程,并从劳动效率的角度,分析城市广化和城市深化对中国经济增长的影响.在二元经济理论框架下,将城市广化和城市深化统一于修正的卢卡斯人力资本增长模型,分别探讨了城市广和城市深化、劳动效率与经济增长之间的相互关系,最后利用1978～2009年间的时间序列数据进行了检验,实证结果...     

Uncertain horizon and stability: Analysis in an optimal growth model

In a one-sector optimal growth model with uncertainty about production optimal capital stocks converge in distribution to a stochastic modified golden rule [see, for example Brock and Mirman (1972, 1973)]. We show that such a result cannot be obtained, in general, if in addition to the random one-period shocks to production there is also a lasting shock to the production function at some random date in the future; however, the conditional optimal capital stocks ‘bunch together’ over time, i.e., a turnpike result for optimal programs is proved.     

INCOME PERSISTENCE AND MACRO-POLICY FEEDBACKS IN THE US*

This paper analyses and forecasts annual time series of aggregate real income per head in the US. The approach integrates elements from recent univariate time series analyses with multi-equation macromodels in which policy feedback rules have been endogenized. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, aggregate real per capita income is subject to significant trend reversion. This conclusion comes through more clearly by examining the data at an annual rather than the more usual quarterly frequency and by incorporating multivariate economic content in the income process. Secondly, there is significant evidence for the Lucas (1976) or Haavelmo (1944) critique: in the US there appears to have been a shift in the structural macropolicy reaction function causing a corresponding shift in the reduced form income forecasting equation. This is associated with increased concern in the late 1980's over the size of US budget deficits. Thirdly, with the above proviso, useful real income forecasts can be made as far as three years ahead. Finally, the paper provides empirical evidence for the effectiveness of monetary policy on real output or income. The change in the short-term interest rate is highly significant in forecasting income growth up to three years after the change.     

我国创业板上市公司成长性评价分析

科学地评价创业板上市公司的成长性是我国创业板市场健康发展的重要前提,通过理论分析构建了创业板上市公司成长性评价指标体系,并以在我国创业板上市的183家公司为样本,采用因子分析模型进行实证分析.研究结果表明:公司的风险控制能力、盈利能力、成长速度、经营效率和创新能力是创业板上市公司成长性的主要体现.     

Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies

We build a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of agents and an endogenous growth specification à la Lucas. Two main issues are addressed: (i) to what extent does endogenous growth play a significant role in the face of policy reforms and (ii) are the simulation results robust to various calibrations of the production function of human capital. In this purpose, we simulate four large policy changes and compare the predictions with endogenous growth (under various parameter sets) to those with exogenous growth. If endogenous growth is important when examining the effects of education reform, it does not really matter with pension reforms and plays a minor role in the debt repayment scenario. These results are very robust to calibration.