Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts,adaptive cropping systems,and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia

This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Niño Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer implements these adaptive farm management strategies in response to seasonal forecast information is found to increase substantially as the number of private grain buyers in the farmers’ village increases. This suggests that climate change adaptation and resilience strategies that integrate the generation and dissemination of weather information with agricultural market development can achieve greater impact on farmers’ adaptive responses than approaches that treat these activities in isolation.     

基于可视化技术的农产品防伪溯源监控系统设计

随着中国农产品物流规模不断壮大,农产品物流系统无法从源头保证产品采摘、包装、物流中的可信性。为了解决这个问题,提出一种现场作业可视化系统,即将可视化技术应用于农产品防伪溯源监控系统中,从而满足远程管理的需求。对相关可视化技术的一般方法进行了分析,选择COFDM作为主要解决方案。农产品防伪溯源监控系统有效克服了复杂环境下的各类干扰,将物流中的实时监控信息传送到中继通信和监控设备上,并依托公用通信网络或专用通信网络进一步实现广域范围内的实时高质量监控图像传输、存储和浏览。通过实时现场视频监控,消费者可以保证买到真实可信的高质量农产品;生产者可以提高农产品的生产、运输效率,还可以提升相应产品的信誉,促进高质量农产品的销售。     

中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的影响因素研究

管理层盈余预测是中小板上市公司对未来展望的信息,在信息披露中占据着越来越重要的地位。本文选取2013-2015 年中小板上市公司相关数据,运用广义多分类无序logit 模型对影响中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的因素进行探究,以期提高管理层盈余预测的质量。经研究结果表明,公司的独立董事占比、年度召开董事会次数、股权集中度、净资产收益率、管理层持股比例等因素越高,对提高中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量越有益,除此之外,中小板上市公司董事长和总经理兼任情况,与公司合作的审计机构专业程度均对管理层盈余预测的质量有一定影响。     

Environmental adversity and food policy in the Arab Gulf states

Since the oil embargo of 1973, the Gulf states have emerged as an overwhelming financial power. However, apart from Iraq, the spiral in oil revenue has had little effect in promoting the development of agriculture. Historically, interest in agricultural development has been invariably linked to agricultural potential. Thus, if potential was very limited, interest in development would be minimal. This article takes an opposite view, suggesting that agricultural development may be important even under harsh ecological conditions, and that the limiting factor is the lack of skilled manpower needed to cope with the management of complex enterprise systems.     

Information Use in New Product Development: An Initial Exploratory Empirical Investigation in the Chemical Industry*

In‐depth interviews with product developers and product development software providers in a previous qualitative phase of research uncovered eight general types of information that are used across the new product development process (strategic, project management, financial, market and customer, wants and needs, technical, competitor, and regulatory information) and three general approaches to managing information in the process (project‐centric, functionally oriented, and fully distributed). This paper presents a second phase of research trying to understand the role that managing knowledge and information plays in developing new products and achieving NPD success. This research phase empirically investigates use of the eight types of information across three general phases of the NPD process in the chemical industry using 81 mail survey responses from marketing and new product development professionals. Respondents were asked to indicate the degree to which each of the eight information types was used in each of the following general phases of new product development: the fuzzy front end, development, and testing and launch. The respondents also provided information on new product development success, information management system sophistication, and innovation strategy. This research makes several contributions to new knowledge. First, this research suggests that information management in product development is even more complex than initially posited in Zahay et al. (2004) , with each of the eight types of information identified being used in each of the three phases of development. Unexpectedly, for all but one type of information use is higher in later stages of the NPD process, even though use of several kinds of information early in the project is associated with increased success. Thus, managers may need to encourage teams to start gathering information from outside the firm earlier than is currently the norm. Second, the results suggest that more sophisticated information management systems are indeed associated with increased use of various different types of information, as expected. Third, more sophisticated information management systems are more highly associated with success than less sophisticated information management systems. These results are important, as most new product development information management systems are limited in their ability to handle complex and non‐quantitative information such as customer wants and needs, as well as strategic, competitor, and regulatory information. However, being able to transmit information on these issues is associated with increased firm performance and project success from these data. Thus, firms need to figure out how to improve their ability to manage and use non‐quantitative information more effectively.     

Markov-Chain Analysis of Internal Manpower Supply

The separation of manpower forecasting into a demand forecast and a supply forecast emphasizes that each depends on quite different sources of information. The demand forecast is based primarily on an estimate of sales, which is then transformed into the number and type of personnel needed to produce and sell the company's products. The information for forecasting internal supply can often be treated as if it were independent of the external environment and is often available within the firm. If a matrix representing the probability of transition from one job classification to another can be prepared for the relevant classifications, Markov-chain theory can be used to generate a forecast of internal manpower supply.     

Lean Launch: Managing Product Introduction Risk Through Response-Based Logistics

New product launch research has identified four strategic issues that involve activities essential to introduce a new product to its target market. The sum of these decisions is critical to new product success. Substantial research has focused on decisions guiding the proper product, price, and promotion mix to favorably impact market goals. Considerably less research has centered on determining how place capabilities such as logistics and supply chain relationships impact launch performance. Logistics and supply chain collaboration—the processes involved in planning, implementing, and controlling the efficient, effective flow and storage of goods, services, and related information from the point of origin to point of consumption for the purpose of conforming to customer requirements—can greatly reduce risk associated with new product launch. They combine to provide a structure to facilitate rapid response to developing demand by location and intensity. In this article, an effort is made to fill the gap in extant knowledge regarding new product launch strategies by reviewing relevant literature and comparing traditional launch strategies based on anticipatory demand forecasts with alternative lean launch strategies based on the principles of response-based logistics. The result is a lean launch model for continued empirical testing and managerial review. The article contrasts traditional logistics support of new product launch with an emerging logic called lean launch strategy. The traditional launch strategy is forecast driven and is based on anticipatory logistics (push). The lean launch strategy is formulated on principles of postponement and is based on response-based logistics (pull) and supply chain management. Response-based logistics systems provide flexibility that enables better management of inventory levels. Improved replenishment times and in-stock availability of products from a centralized inventory allows managers to rapidly react to actual demand. Lean launch enhances successful introduction by allowing greater flexibility in product variant selection while minimizing out-of-stock potential. Lean launch also can cut losses in product launch failures by reducing launch inventory exposure. Finally, lean launch can improve chances of new product success by helping limited volume technical successes achieve profitability.     

Book Reviews

The first review is of a book that probably should be required reading for most personnel who participate in new product development—both academics and practitioners. It focuses on product innovation, primarily from an engineering perspective. Special emphasis is given to product design and development issues ranging from attribute specification and design for manufacturing to the economics and management of product development projects. Although the book has limitations, it provides highly relevant insights, especially for those involved with engineered products. The second review covers a book devoted to software development, which is becoming a ubiquitous ingredient in many products. Our reviewer reports that the book offers much practical wisdom. The third and fourth reviews discuss books for practitioners that are focused on specialized areas: biomedical and clinical instrumentation and food products. Although specialized, the first of these books offers some broader, more general lessons. The other will be of greatest value to those developing food products who have statistical training. The next three reviews cover other books of greatest interest to practitioners. The first is also most useful for those developing engineered products. The second will be of most use to less experienced personnel. The third book is about teamwork—now regarded by most practitioners as essential—but with only a few examples pertinent to product development. The last two reviews report on books that will be primarily of interest to academics and of limited interest to practitioners. The first of these two reviews describes a conference proceedings book, which is a compendium of unusually thoughtful presentations on the impact of changes in information technology on the design and execution of marketing actions. The articles in this collection are at once balanced in terms of level and style and comprehensive in terms of their overall coverage. The second covers a product management textbook with special emphasis on opportunity identification and the alignment of effort and resources with such opportunities.     

提高城区电网短期负荷预测准确率的方法

负荷预测是电力系统中的一个重要环节,是电力系统安全、经济、稳定运行的重要保障。针对我国大型城市中心城区负荷易受天气等突变因素影响而出现负荷曲线突变,导致短期负荷预测准确率降低的问题,以及城区负荷具有较明显的时间周期性特点,提出了通过考虑逐时、划分特定区域气象信息建立负荷预测模型,利用数据挖掘技术寻找相似日的方法,为提高短期负荷预测准确率提供一种思路。     

Demand,Information, and Competition: Why Do Food Prices Fall at Seasonal Demand Peaks?

Prices for seasonal food products fall at demand peaks. Price declines are not driven by falling agricultural input prices; indeed, farm to retail margins narrow sharply. I use electronic scanner data from a sample of US supermarkets to show that seasonal price declines are closely linked to market concentration, and are much larger in markets with several rivals than where a single brand dominates. Seasonal demand increases reduce the effective costs of informative advertising, and increased informative advertising by retailers and manufacturers in turn may allow for increased market information and greater price sensitivity on the part of buyers.     

Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long-term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long-range planning.     

Business Strategy, R&D Management and Environmental Imperatives

Abstract
Environmental imperatives are seen by many business leaders to represent a major issue for the 1990's and beyond. The debate about the environmental sustainability of economic activity has important implications for the development of business and places considerable emphasis on the need for planned corporate change. The strategic significance of the environment is particularly critical to R&D as this is characterised by long planning horizons and provides the setting for the development of future products and processes.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the connections between environmental imperatives, strategic change and R&D management. To this end the paper reviews the strategic nature of environmental pressures on business. From this base, consideration is given to the responses required by business, in meeting these pressures. The paper concludes by suggesting that the application of management techniques in concert with organisational change is needed for R&D management to build environmental considerations effectively into innovation. These suggestions can be used to gauge how far individual businesses have developed the systems and structures to enable them to move towards sustainability. The implication of the paper is that R&D management will not only need to apply new management techniques but will have to play a leading role in innovative organisational structures in order to fulfil the full potential of environmentally sensitive products and processes.     

财政资金金融化运作研究——以吉林省财政支农资金为例

近年来,吉林省加大了财政支农资金金融化运作力度,成立了相关机构,创新了金融产品,取得了一定成绩。但与发达省份相比,吉林省财政支农资金的运用手段和管理方式仍然比较落后,仍存在诸多问题亟待解决。因此,吉林省应积极借鉴国内外先进经验,整合资金、健全机构,夯实金融化运作基础,同时不断创新吉林省财政支农资金投放机制,探索财政支农资金金融化运作模式,提高财政支农资金使用效率,促进吉林省农业和经济快速发展。     

粮食主产区构建现代农业支撑体系问题研究——以河南省为例

本文以河南省为例探讨了我国粮食主产区构建现代农业支撑体系的问题与对策。河南省发展现代农业存在着农业基础设施薄弱、科技拉动能力不强、农业从业人员整体素质偏低和农业产业结构不合理等问题。河南省发展现代农业需要建立起包括科技支撑、人力资本支撑、资金支撑、组织支撑、市场支撑及政策支撑在内的现代农业支撑体系。河南省构建现代农业支撑体系的对策主要有:立足于工业化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展,构造河南省农业政策体系;以培育产地批发市场为基础,建立现代农产品市场体系;推进农民合作经济组织创建和市场发育,完善现代农业组织体系;创新体制机制,完善现代要素供给体系。     

Postponed product differentiation with demand information update

This paper studies the problem of how to coordinate postponed product differentiation and forecast update to improve manufacturing efficiency. We consider a two-stage model of multiple products with a common component. In stage 1, the manager obtains a prior demand distribution of each product and decides the production quantity of the common component. In stage 2, the demand forecast is updated and the common component is differentiated into various final products. Then the final demand of each product is realized and inventory leftover (shortage) is assessed. We use stochastic programming to model this problem, and propose an optimal bundle-type algorithm to solve it. Furthermore, we develop some simple and effective approximation algorithms for several special cases. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the approximation algorithms, to compare the performance between the traditional production model and the postponement production model, and to examine the impact of parameters on the performances of the two systems.     

西部地区成品油合理库存探讨

针对西部地区成品油库存管理,在保障市场稳定供应的前提下,为提升成品油库周转效率,降低库存成本占用及库存油品跌价风险,本文按照油库类型、运输方式、订货周期分类,利用不确定性库存管理模型,有效测算西部地区零售(省区公司)、批发企业(大区公司)油库的合理库存;同时考虑西部地区固有的季节性产销因素,按照成品油库存淡储旺销调剂模式,确定包含季节因素的西部地区整体合理库存.测算结果与实际情况符合较好,可以有效指导销售企业进行实际库存管理.此外,文章还对西部地区合理库存测算的影响因素进行了分析,指出了改进的方向.     

农产品质量安全问题中的信息不对称及其对策研究

市场失灵是农产品质量安全问题产生的重要原因之一,而信息不对称是造成市场失灵的重要因素。文章分析了农产品质量安全问题中的信息不对称,并从建立合理的价格依存机制、政府规制等几个方面对此问题的解决作了探讨。     

农药使用负面影响管理中的政府、市场与组织

中国以国家干预、政府主导为特征的农药管理政策,在维护国家粮食安全、环境影响控制和农产品质量安全方面已经取得了较大进展,但目前政府主导、事前监管为主的农药负面影响管理忽视了市场和组织的力量及其在事中和事后监管中的优势,效率亟待提高。文章构建了一个政府监督、调控衣药负面影响的分析框架,应用这一新的分析框架加强和改善政府对农药负面影响的管理和调控,就需要以政府为主体,创新农药管理体制;同时重视发挥、培育市场和组织的力量。     

建设领域信息产品产业化示范基地的运行机制

建设领域信息产品产业化示范基地是我国研发生产信息产品企业的模范与标兵，章详细地介绍信息产品产业化示范基地的组织机构、人力资源开发与管理、质量管理体系三方面内容。     

Research Opportunities Related to Consumer Response to Product Design*

This essay identifies five research opportunities that concern consumer response to product design. The first opportunity involves the need for more research on the interaction between form and function in consumer product evaluations. To this end, more knowledge about how product appearance characteristics influence consumer evaluation of both product form and function, and how this differs between countries and in time, is needed. The second research opportunity concerns the influence of consumer input in the front end of new product development on product success. Although the positive effect of market information use on product success is known, more actionable insight into which consumer information or input is beneficial in which circumstances is largely missing. The third opportunity for research concerns how to include subjective product attributes in concept testing. Getting valid feedback from consumers, which includes functional as well as emotional and experiential aspects, can improve proficiency in the early stages of product development. In this essay, several ways of approaching this research endeavor are highlighted. Next to enhancing market receipt and the assessment of product design, two topics that concern consumer response to product design from a more managerial viewpoint are identified. The first of these is strategic management of product styling. The importance and opportunities of visual design for brand management has gained more attention in the literature; different strategies and the cases in which they are beneficial are issues for further research. And finally, the design of product service systems (PSSs) provides opportunities for future research. Here, engendering perceptual unity between products and services and an explicit managing of meanings and feelings that PSSs should communicate are issues at play.