高新技术中小企业知识产权集群互助担保融资研究——基于集群创新网络与融资创新视角

基于高新技术产业集群创新网络和高新企业融资特征,首次从社会网络的视角界定了知识产权集群互助担保网络概念,设计并提炼了高新技术中小企业的知识产权集群互助担保模式与特征,并对其融资优势从量化角度进行了深入分析。从而获得以下结论:知识产权集群互助担保具有独特的社会网络信用,长期、稳定的合作预期,多层次、多样、多主体参与等特征,它提供了更多的创新分工协作机会并降低了融资主体的逃债主义机会倾向,使得企业融资额、融资效率提高,并有效地降低了融资成本,相对于游离企业的融资具有明显优势,是解决高新中小企业融资难题的重要方式。     

基于社会资本理论的科技型中小企业互助联合担保模式研究——以广东省为例北大核心

本文从融资模式的视角对广东省科技型中小企业融资困境进行分析,在借鉴现有融资担保模式的基础上,引入社会资本理论,着力解决风险控制问题;尝试对现有担保融资模式进行优化,提出"融资服务中心+企业互助联盟+联合体+担保机构+合作银行"的互助联合担保融资模式,以期能推动科技型中小企业解决融资难题。     

基于社会资本理论的科技型中小企业互助联合担保模式研究——以广东省为例

本文从融资模式的视角对广东省科技型中小企业融资困境进行分析,在借鉴现有融资担保模式的基础上,引入社会资本理论,着力解决风险控制问题;尝试对现有担保融资模式进行优化,提出"融资服务中心+企业互助联盟+联合体+担保机构+合作银行"的互助联合担保融资模式,以期能推动科技型中小企业解决融资难题。     

意大利中小企业互助担保模式的经验及借鉴

互助担保制度被认为是解决中小企业融资的有效途径,特别是对中小企业集群有着更为重要的意义。意大利是最早建立中小企业信用担保体系的国家之一,其完善的互助担保模式在推动中小企业发展方面也取得了令人瞩目的成绩。我国应该借鉴意大利的成功经验,建立以互助担保为主的中小企业信用担保体系,并加强政府对担保的扶持力度,从而推进我国中小企业的发展。     

失信风险传染会影响债券定价吗？——基于担保网络大数据的实证研究

在债券定价研究中不仅应该考虑企业自身的信用风险,还应该考虑相关网络组织的传染风险。本文基于43万笔非金融企业间的担保数据,构建了企业信用担保网络,发现失信风险作为一种广义的信用风险,在担保网络中具有传染效应,该传染效应能够影响债券的信用利差。企业的失信行为产生了三类传染效应,一是直接传染效应,无论是发债主体的担保人出现失信行为,还是被担保人出现失信行为,都会引起发债主体的信用利差上升;二是局部感染效应,如果局部担保网络中失信主体的占比提升,可能引起投资者对发债主体的“团体处罚”,导致信用利差上升;三是全局扩散效应,失信信息沿担保网络向整个市场扩散,导致债券信用利差上升。从企业所有制来看,民营企业主要受微观的直接传染效应和中观的局部感染效应影响;而国有企业主要受全局扩散效应影响;被担保人的失信风险对两类企业都有显著影响。失信风险传染效应会降低企业的再融资能力,其中局部感染效应导致企业次年的借款融资额下降,全局扩散效应导致企业次年的债券融资额下降。     

基于复杂网络技术的银行业担保圈风险传染机理及化解路径研究

"新常态"下担保圈已经成为实体经济风险向银行领域传递的重要渠道,是银行信贷资产质量劣化的"重灾区",迫切需要理论界和实务界深度研析。本文首先基于监管部门长期积累的客户授信和担保信息,运用有向遍历算法绘制担保圈图谱,解决防范化解的信息瓶颈;其次,创造性提出以担保圈风险传染的直接代偿驱动机制和防御情绪驱动机制辨析风险传染路径,并引入复杂网络技术构建担保圈风险传染模型,寻找担保圈风险扩散的影响因素和阻断蔓延的方法;再次,利用熵值法建立担保圈风险定量测度模型,选取三个典型担保圈进行了化解实践;最后,提出政策建议。本文的研究成果为担保圈风险识别、防范和化解提供了可靠的量化依据,具有较强的理论价值和实践意义。     

政府财政支持对中小企业信用担保影响研究——基于成本收益视角

政府财政支持对中小企业信用担保的影响存在争议,通过从成本收益角度出发,建立非线性模型和实例分析政府财政支持在中小企业信用担保中产生的影响及效益情况。结果表明,政府的财政支持完善了中小企业信用担保的风险分担机制,提升了担保的放大效应,增加了担保机制各关系方的收益。     

企业担保圈风险监测与预警研究

通过对企业担保圈风险问题开展的系列研究发现,企业担保圈是一个"小世界",任何两个毫不相干的信贷企业通过若干圈担保链奈都能产生必然联系,而且担保圈中的"多米诺效应"与"阻尼效应"是对立统一的。一旦担保圈的风险暴露,不仅影响到担保圈内企业发展,也严重威胁商业银行的资产安全,甚至形成区域性金融风险。本文通过设计担保圈风险指标,选择合适的方法对风险指标未来五年走势进行前瞻性递推预测;采用拓扑网状软件揭示出一个地区重点担保圈中成千上万家企业担保关联风险传染和扩散路径等情况;提出化解企业担保圈风险并守住不发生区域性金融风险底线的对策建议。     

BP神经网络模型在中小企业融资担保信用风险控制中的应用

鉴于融资担保机构在中小企业融资方面起到越来越重要的作用，构建中小企业风控模型势在必行。本文首先从构建中小企业风控模型指标从发，运用主成分分析法获得主成分得分，并以此得分作为风控模型的数据输入；其次运用python语言构建BP神经网络风控模型，使用网络搜索方法寻找最优模型参数；进一步运用交叉验证、混淆矩阵及ROC曲线评估模型性能，证实BP神经网络风控模型性能较优；最后介绍BP神经网络模型在中小企业融资担保信用风险控制中的实际应用。     

中小企业信用担保风险形成的内在机制研究

从信息经济学角度讨论了金融市场中的信息不对称理论,接着对信息不对称导致中小企业信用担保风险形成的内在机制进行了深入研究,并基于风险识别、风险预警、科学运营、风险内部分散、风险内部转移、风险内部补偿等分目标,构建了中小企业信用担保风险的内部控制机制的整体架构,为中小企业信用担保的科学化实践提供参考.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.