我国服务贸易国际竞争力分析

长期以来,我国服务贸易发展缓慢,货物贸易顺差与服务贸易逆差形成了鲜明的对比。本文通过我国服务贸易出口额在世界的排序和我国服务贸易进出口行业结构及其比较优势的分析,得出了有利于提升我国服务贸易国际竞争力的若干启示。     

Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective

This paper estimates the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows using a panel of disaggregated manufactured goods for the 2000–2001 period for 75 countries. Four categories of trade facilitation are defined, measured and assessed for their impact on bilateral trade flows using a gravity model. The four measures of trade facilitation are: port infrastructure (air and maritime), customs environment, regulatory environments and e‐business infrastructure. The results suggest that raising global capacity halfway to the world average in the four areas would increase trade by $377 billion. Most regions of the world increase exports more than imports. In large part, this result stems from increased exports to OECD markets that is obtained through a country's own effort to improve ports, customs, regulations and services infrastructures. In addition, the results suggest that reform and capacity building in trade facilitation in areas related to GATT Articles V, VIII and X that are under discussion at the World Trade Organisation could expand trade and exports significantly. Many of the reform measures necessary to achieve this goal need not necessarily require large‐scale investment projects, but rather action in legal and administrative reform to facilitate trade.     

Trade in Services: The Elasticity Approach for The Case of Turkey

This study includes the analysis of global trade in the services and service sector in Turkey, and estimates the elasticity of trade in services to real exchange rates and income. There is an increasing role of the service sector in the Turkish economy; however, a decreasing trend of trade in services is taking place. The commitments of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) were found to be ineffective, at least in the case of Turkey. The empirical findings suggest that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant for the trade in services. We found an inelastic real exchange rate and income elasticities in trade demand functions. However, the value of income elasticity significantly exceeds the value of real exchange rate elasticity.     

全球教育服务贸易的发展及特点

随着经济全球化和人才国际化的发展,教育服务在国际间的输入和输出日益频繁,再加上教育本身所具有的重要意义,使得我们对于教育服务贸易这一崭新的问题必须给予更大的关注。     

发达国家批发商业现状与我国批发业再造

批发商业是商品流通的重要环节和业态,但不同国家的批发业现状各不相同。美国、日本以及法国这三国的批发业,在相当程度上代表了北美、亚洲和欧洲乃至世界主要国家批发商业的基本特点和发展趋势,其在组织形式上也分属不同类型。我国批发业如何转变观念,改善经营,充分发挥现有的企业信誉优势等有利条件,由原来计划经济体制下的批发企业向适应市场经济要求的现代批发企业转变,以适应大生产、大市场、大流通的需要成为亟待解决的问题。     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

The Role and Value of Global Business Research: Perspective of a Business School Dean

The scope of this article is two-fold. First, it looks at business research in general, in various countries, as a task that the dean wants to have faculty members pursue, to attain goals such as accreditation and ranking with organizations such as the AACSB, Equis, the Financial Times, and US News & World Report. And second, it looks at international business research as part of what business schools produce and what a dean can encourage. As more academics realize the importance of international competition, and also of dealing with people from other cultures and countries, IB research is becoming more acceptable in mainstream publications as well as in specialized international business ones. Key questions discussed here include encouraging, measuring, promoting, and financing international business research.     

全球服务贸易自由化态势研判——以多哈回合服务贸易谈判为视角

服务贸易是多哈回合谈判的一个重要领域。由于多哈回合进展极不顺利,新一轮服务贸易谈判进程也十分曲折。从总体上看,这轮谈判已取得了一定的阶段性成果,同时在许多方面也存在着明显的缺失。从多哈回合服务贸易谈判存在的问题、发展的进程及趋向来看,今后一个时期全球服务贸易自由化的基本态势为:领域更趋广泛,任务更为艰巨,成果仍将有限,影响更加深远。     

商贸系统信息化建设之解决方案

信息化建设是商贸系统现代化的关键所在。在商贸系统信息化建设中体现出种种心理障碍及陈旧观念,严重制约了我国商贸系统的现代化建设。针对这一情况,从硬件环境、软件开发、信息资源和人员素质四个方面提出了较为科学、合理的解决方案。     

Services Linkages and the Value Added Content of Trade

Working with a set of global social accounting matrices spanning intermittent years from 1992 to 2011, this paper examines the services embodied in trade on a value added basis. Data include not only the direct and indirect contribution of services to value added contained in a given country's exports, but also the extent to which third‐country value added in services, through intermediate linkages of imported goods and services, is also embodied in production and trade. Our data indicate, in line with previous findings, that the ratio of value added to gross trade has been decreasing both for goods and for services, which is consistent with growing vertical production fragmentation. On the other hand, while value added in goods sectors including indirect exports is less than the gross value of exports, in services, it is greater, highlighting the service intensity of trade.     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

新一代信息技术驱动下的全球价值链调整及其应对策略

在新一轮科技革命和产业变革背景下,新一代信息技术与制造业深度融合促使制造环节的创新功能凸显、增值能力增强和要素投入升级,进而提高了制造环节在全球价值链中的相对地位。新型制造技术的使用正在重构发达国家制造业的竞争优势,伴随着制造业回流,发达国家对全球价值链制造环节的参与程度有所提高。全球价值链调整导致中国制造业面临更加不确定的外部环境,同时又为制造业向价值链中高端攀升提供了机会窗口。中国应谨防过早“去工业化”,通过推动高水平对外开放、提高新一代信息技术与制造业融合创新能力、深入挖掘内需潜力、大力发展生产性服务业、深度参与全球经济治理等策略应对全球价值链调整。     

基于信息技术的批发企业物流管理的集成研究

面对批发业竞争环境的变化,批发企业必须建立为生产商和零售商服务的现代化批发体系。而物流及其信息技术的发展则为这种现代化批发体系提供了必要的技术支持。批发企业必须强化其物流服务功能,提高物流效率,将现代批发业与现代物流进行整合,通过加强信息化建设提高企业物流能力,增强现代批发业在商品流通中的竞争力。     

全球价值链视角下中美增加值贸易与贸易失衡的测算

基于全球价值链视角,采用多区域投入产出模型,利用世界投入产出表数据,测算了1995~2011年中美增加值出口和双边贸易失衡规模。研究表明:相比于传统贸易出口规模,1995年和2011年中国增加值出口分别减少16.06%和24.24%;传统贸易统计方法严重高估中美贸易失衡,同期中美制造业的增加值贸易顺差分别为传统贸易顺差的5%和10%,而中美农业贸易则由传统贸易逆差转变为增加值贸易顺差,中美服务业贸易则由传统贸易顺差转变为增加值贸易逆差;分要素密集度行业来看,中国劳动密集型和资本密集型行业表现为增加值贸易顺差,而知识密集型服务业则为逆差,且逆差规模逐步扩大。     

我国批发与零售环节的地位、作用与演变趋势

本文研究了我国市场经济体制下批发与零售环节地位与作用的演变趋势,对比、分析、描述与探讨了近年来我国批发与零售环节销售业务的数据及其总量、结构、演变趋势和原因等.在此基础上,提出了如下观点:批发环节不会在流通市场化过程中消亡,而是呈现出淘汰、整合、创新与发展的趋势;我国传统"批发环节主导零售"的地位,正在发生"批发环节服务于零售环节与用户"的根本性变化,而零售环节在商品流通渠道中的主导地位与作用越来越明显;由商品自然属性和社会属性的差异性决定,商品流通渠道向多样化的构成方向演变,批发环节已不是商品流通过程的必经环节.     

基于信息技术的批发企业物流管理的集成研究

面对批发业竞争环境的变化,批发企业必须建立为生产商和零售商服务的现代化批发体系。而物流及其信息技术的发展则为这种现代化批发体系提供了必要的技术支持。批发企业必须强化其物流服务功能,提高物流效率,将现代批发业与现代物流进行整合,通过加强信息化建设提高企业物流能力,增强现代批发业在商品流通中的竞争力。     

服务贸易自由化与全球价值链:参与度及分工地位

本文利用世界银行的服务贸易限制指数以及世界投入产出数据库,研究了服务贸易自由化对制造业全球价值链参与度和分工地位的影响。实证结果表明:服务贸易自由化促进了制造业全球价值链的前向参与而抑制了其后向参与,显著提升了制造业企业在价值链中的分工地位;从经济发展水平来看,服务贸易自由化对发展中国家分工地位的提升效应大于发达国家;不同服务部门的开放具有异质性影响,其中零售、电信、金融和专业服务部门的自由化能够显著提升一国制造业的分工地位,而运输服务部门自由化促进制造业价值链升级的作用并不明显。本文为中国进一步扩大服务贸易开放,助力制造业利用国内外优质服务深度融入全球价值链、提升国际竞争力、实现价值链跃升提供了实证支持和政策参考。