Where is the GE? Consumption Dynamics in DSGEs

We offer a partial equilibrium perspective on the behavior of consumption in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider a benchmark dynamic general equilibrium model and show that a standard calibration implies that the real interest rate is essentially fixed. One manifestation of this feature is that, with separable preferences, the reaction of consumption to total factor productivity (TFP) shocks is flat: the random‐walk permanent income hypothesis holds almost exactly, pretty much as in a partial equilibrium consumption‐savings problem. These results help explain the prominent role of aggregate demand, and how it is achieved, in modern DSGE analysis.     

What's in a frame? Social organization,risk perception and the sociology of knowledge

A central problem in the sociology of knowledge has been to show that sane people can intelligibly have quite different alternative understandings of the same problem, such as a kind of risk, without abandoning the idea that there is a real problem about which to disagree, and to show the social basis of both plurality and viability. In recent decades, attempts to make this problem tractable have focused on the idea of a ‘frame’. Theories of frames offer accounts of the range of content, as distinguished from theories of processes of diffusion, of which risk amplification theory is the best known example. In this article, several theories of frames – those of Goffman, D'Andrade, Moscovici, Gamson, Schön and Rein, and of prospect theory – found are to be inadequate, because of their lack of clarity and plausibility in their answers to four key questions: ‘what is the relationship between sense‐making and bias?’, ‘how are frames to be individuated?’, ‘where do frames come from?’, and ‘how far and how can people move between frames?’. The article makes the case for a neo‐Durkheimian institutional theory developed by Douglas and others. This approach derives frames as concrete applications to specific contexts from thought styles, which are in turn the product of solidarities or institutional styles of social organization, because it can offer clear, testable, parsimonious hypotheses with which to answer these four questions. The theory therefore provides an account of the institutional logic of framing, and presents reasons for preferring this to non‐institutional approaches such as the various kinds of cognitivism. The article offers three conceptual innovations with which to develop the neo‐Durkheimian theory, in order better to deal with the crucial fourth question about the scope for mobility between frames. These innovations and some specific hypotheses about the scope for mobility between frames are supported by consideration of some exploratory qualitative empirical research on privacy risk perception. The theory provides a more satisfactory strategy for tackling the core problem than most others, by showing plurality to be limited, by showing clear and specific social bases for plurality of frames, by neither wholly endorsing nor wholly rejecting any basic bias, and by showing that their conflictual and systemic interdependence is what makes for viability.     

Blockchain and other distributed ledger technologies: Where is the accounting?

In a recent survey of academic research, Fintech related topics, broadly classified as crypto-currency studies, were by far the most researched topics in the social sciences. However, we have observed that, perhaps surprisingly, even though crypto-currencies rely on a distributed accounting ledger technology, relatively few of those studies were conducted by accounting academics. While some of the features of a system like Bitcoin do not necessarily rely on a traditional accounting knowledge, this knowledge is key in designing effective real-world distributed systems. Building on a foundational framework developed by Risius and Spohrer (2017), we provide support for their hypothesis that to date, research in this area has been predominantly of a somewhat narrow focus (i.e., based upon exploiting existing programming solutions without adequately considering the fundamental needs of users). This is particularly reflected by the abundance of Bitcoin-like crypto-currency code-bases with little or no place for business applications. We suggest that this may severely limit an appreciation of the relevance and applicability of decentralized systems, and how they may support value creation and improved governance. We provide supporting arguments for this statement by considering four applied classes of problems where a blockchain/distributed ledger can add value without requiring a crypto-currency to be an integral part of the functioning system. We note that each class of problem has been viewed previously as part of accounting issues within the legacy centralized ledger systems paradigm. We show how accounting knowledge is still relevant in the shift from centralized to decentralized ledger systems. We advance the debate on the development of (crypto-currency free) value-creating distributed ledger systems by showing that applying accounting knowledge in this area has potentially a much wider impact than that currently being applied in areas limited to auditing and operations management. We develop a typology for general distributed ledger design which assists potential users to understand the wide range of choices when developing such systems.     

Support for pension reforms: What is the role of financial literacy and pension knowledge?

Despite the relevance of the issue of pension system sustainability in most advanced economies, the factors associated with the opposition to pension reforms are still under-studied. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between financial, pension and institutional knowledge and support for pension reforms. Using an ad hoc module of the SHARE data for Italy, we find that financially literate and pension knowledgeable individuals are more willing to accept pension reforms. In particular, individuals with a basic level of pension knowledge recognize that population ageing, low economic growth, and low contributions by the young make the public pension system hardly sustainable.     

Short sales and put options: Where is the bad news first traded?

Although the literature provides strong evidence supporting the presence of informed trading in both the option and the short equity markets, it is not clear which market attracts more informed trading. Using a unique dataset that covers intraday transaction data in the option and short equity markets, we investigate informed trading in a cross-market environment by explicitly studying the lead–lag relationship between the put net trade volume and short sales of the underlying stock. Our high frequency analysis shows that in general short sales contain more information. However, put options become more informative before the release of negative earnings announcements.     

The macroeconomic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy: Does the exchange rate regime matter?

This paper develops a small open economy model in the spirit of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The introduction of endogenous traded sector output unlocks current account and real exchange rate effects. Within this framework where specific consideration is given to the case with fixed but adjustable parities, exchange rate devaluation generates similar qualitative effects as a money supply expansion under floating rates. Output and external effects of government spending shocks are broadly consistent with the adjusted basic non-micro founded Mundell and Fleming (MF) framework, but differ in significant ways from the baseline MF model. Contrary to the textbook MF model a government expenditure shock depreciates the nominal exchange rate and generates real effects under the fixed rate system.     

What is the role of consensus statements in a risk society?

Abstract

This paper explores the role of consensus statements in a risk society. It uses Beck’s theory of risk to show that scientists have employed consensus statements in order to re-establish faith in science. Through analysing the goals of participants in consensus fora and comparing them to the fora processes, this paper considers how consensus statements and guidelines in public health can be viewed as remedies for the decline in expert trust experienced in the current risk society. To collect data, 25 interviews were undertaken with consensus panel participants from the USA, UK and Australia. Interviewees were from peak national agencies/commissioning agencies and were categorised as policymaker, practitioner and consumer stakeholders. Participants made recommendations for improving consensus processes in order to mitigate perceptions of risk. These were: (1) clearly stated goals; (2) robust, evidence-based and transparent processes of methodological development and participation/deliberation/decision-making; (3) diverse stakeholder representation, including increased consumer participation; (4) transparency about conflicts of interest; and, (5) robust, carefully worded recommendations. Poor-quality consensus statements can further entrench scepticism about the scientific enterprise. While consensus statements can be seen as a tool for moderating perceptions of risk, policymakers and scientists must ensure the integrity, strength and transparency of their research methods. This has the potential to facilitate policy, improve scientific accountability to the public and legitimise processes. While fostering greater trust is not a primary objective for scientists, an increase in legitimacy of process can be an important unintended consequence of improved quality consensus statements and an important antidote to the risk society.     

Efficiency of capital taxation in an open economy: tax competition versus tax exportation

Tax competition and tax exportation have contrary implications for the efficiency of capital taxation. We provide a simple condition for the dominance of either force, which depends on the mobility of foreign investment. We use this condition to evaluate the relative importance of both forces in the US and in the EU. This paper has benefitted substantially from the comments of the editor, Jay Wilson, and three anonymous referees.     

Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 116,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000–2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that an active management of working capital may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.     

Intellectual capital and the ‘capable firm’: narrating,visualising and numbering for managing knowledge

Intellectual capital statements are ‘new’ forms of reporting whose object is knowledge management activities. Based on 17 firms’ work to develop intellectual capital statements, this paper analyses them as managerial technologies making knowledge amenable to intervention. Aspects of actor-network-theory are mobilised to suggest that the intellectual capital statement is a centre of translation, which mobilises knowledge management via three interrelated elements: knowledge narratives, visualisations and numbers. Intellectual capital statements report on the mechanisms put in place to make knowledge manageable. Writing intellectual capital is a local story, which often concerns making knowledge collective and a process of allowing it to be oriented towards organisational ends. In such a story, knowledge is about a firm's capabilities and abilities to make a difference to a user. When writing an intellectual capital statement, firms locate employees, customers, processes and technologies and orient them towards a user. However, the statement as such is a means of ‘dis-locating’ knowledge resources making them amenable to intervention. There are certain broad types of intervention that allows a classification of strategies of intervention to be proposed. These terms are portfolio management, improvement activities and productivity. Such forms of intervention circumscribe the aspiration to transform knowledge from something internal to the person into something that is the effect of a collective arrangement. They allow—through intellectual capital statements—the dark, tacit knowing of individuals to come into the open space of calculation and action at a distance.     

Is There a Connection Between the Tax Administration and the Political Power?

This paper offers empirical evidence from Spain of a connection between the tax administration and the political power at the regional level. Firstly, the system of unconditional grants from the central layer of government provokes an “income effect” which disincentivises the efforts of the regional tax administration. Secondly, these efforts tend to be lower in those electoral districts where vote turnout is high, the margin to lose a parliamentary seat is narrow and their parliamentary representation is high, although the importance of these disincentives decreases according to the parliamentary strength of the incumbent. Finally, leftist governments, through the tax administration, tend to exert a greater effort in ensuring tax compliance.     

Does Labor Power Affect the Likelihood of a Share Repurchase?

This research examines the impact of labor power on the firm's repurchase decisions. Firms facing stronger labor power repurchase fewer shares, suggesting that, on average, repurchases are against the interests of labor. However, the negative effect of labor power on repurchases is significantly reduced when repurchases benefit employees by fending off an unwanted takeover or countering the dilution effects of employee stock options. We also examine the ex post consequences of share repurchases. Repurchases are positively related to the probability of a strike. Repurchase announcement returns and the operating performance of repurchasing firms are negatively related to labor power.     

Culture and capital structure: What else to the puzzle?

This paper investigates four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions –individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation– influence on firms' choices of short-term and long-term capital structures. Cultures influence on corporate risk-taking may drive their debt-to-equity mix based on the higher of their equity book or market value. We empirically test culture influence with a sample of 5968 firms from five industry sectors, across 33 countries, over 2009–2017. We find firms national culture influencing their choices of short-term and long-term debt to book and market value of equity. The influence is more significant on the short-term than the long-term capital structures. Furthermore, it is more significant on the short-term debt to market value of equity and on the long-term debt to book value of equity. Our robustness checks at the firm-level, country-level and sample-level confirm and reinforce our main results. These findings would provide financial analysts, investors, and creditors an in-depth understanding when comparing international firms' capital structures.     

Finance and growth in a bank-based economy: Is it quantity or quality that matters?

Most finance–growth studies approximate the size of financial systems rather than the quality of intermediation to explain economic growth differentials. Furthermore, the neglect of systematic differences in cross-country studies could drive the result that finance matters. We suggest a measure of bank’s intermediation quality using bank-specific efficiency estimates and focus on the regions of one economy only: Germany. This quality measure has a significantly positive effect on growth. This result is robust to the exclusion of banks operating in multiple regions, controlling for the proximity of financial markets, when distinguishing different banking sectors active in Germany, and when excluding the structurally weaker East from the sample.     

Where is the distribution tail threshold? A tale on tail and copulas in financial risk measurement

Estimating the market risk is conditioned by the fat tail of the distribution of returns. But the tail index depends on the threshold of this distribution fat tail. We propose a methodology based on the decomposition of the series into positive outliers, Gaussian central part and negative outliers and uses the latter to estimate this cutoff point. Additionally, from this decomposition, we estimate extreme dependence correlation matrix which is used in the measurement of portfolio risk. For a sample consisting of six assets (Bitcoin, Gold, Brent, Standard&Poor-500, Nasdaq and Real Estate index), we find that our methodology presents better results, in terms of normality and volatility of the tail index, than the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance, and its unnecessary capital consumption is lower. Also, in the measurement of the risk of a portfolio, the results of our proposal improve those of a t-Student copula and allow us to estimate the extreme dependence and the corresponding indexes avoiding the implicit restrictions of the elliptic and Archimedean copulas.     

Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?

We study the sources of fluctuations in the housing market of a small open economy. We use an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and data from seven small open economies to assess the quantitative effects of both contemporaneous and news shocks to domestic and external fundamentals on housing market dynamics. External shocks and news shocks have significant effects. Cyclical fluctuations in housing prices and housing investment are mainly driven by contemporaneous shocks related to foreign housing preferences and terms of trade, and by news shocks related to domestic consumption-goods technology, housing preferences and terms of trade. The spillover effects of external shocks on housing prices are notably larger than those of domestic shocks.     

Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?

We examine whether the recent regime of increased liquidity and trading activity is associated with attenuation of prominent equity return anomalies due to increased arbitrage. We find that the majority of the anomalies have attenuated and the average returns from a portfolio strategy based on prominent anomalies have approximately halved after decimalization. We provide evidence that hedge fund assets under management, short interest and aggregate share turnover have led to the decline in anomaly-based trading strategy profits in recent years. Overall, our work indicates that policies to stimulate liquidity and ameliorate trading costs improve capital market efficiency.     

Where do firms incorporate? Deregulation and the cost of entry

We study how deregulation of corporate law affects the decision of entrepreneurs of where to incorporate. Recent rulings by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have enabled entrepreneurs to select their country of incorporation independently of their real seat. We analyze foreign incorporations in the U.K., where incorporations of limited liability companies can be arranged at low cost. Using data for over 2 million companies from around the world incorporating in the U.K., we find a large increase in cross-country incorporations from E.U. Member States following the ECJ rulings. In line with regulatory cost theories, incorporations are primarily driven by minimum capital requirements and setup costs in home countries. We record widespread use of special incorporation agents to facilitate legal mobility across countries.