Investors’ aspirations and portfolio performance

Based on a large database of individual investors, I analyze the impact of personal financial goals on portfolio performance. I stress the role played by latent investor aspirations as defined in the Behavioral Portfolio Theory framework. I identify two opposite profiles of investors. High-aspirations investors trade more and hold riskier portfolios than the average investor. By contrast, low-aspirations investors are more diversified than the average investor. I find that when controlling for diversification, turnover and usual risk factors, high-aspiration investors underperform their peers, whereas low-aspirations investors outperform them.     

Large investors’ portfolio composition and firms value

We analyze new Swedish data on the portfolio holdings of large blockholders and find that firm value increases with the weight of a stock in a large blockholder's portfolio. In our sample, this weight may be greater than 50%. We are the first to show that this value premium is correlated with portfolio weights for any large blockholders, not just institutions. We find some evidence that indicates that “stock importance” (high portfolio weight) can mitigate the negative effects of a dual-class structure on firm value. Further, it does not seem that a large blockholder's tenure as a CEO or as a board chairman affects this value premium. We conduct a variety of tests to rule out endogeneity and reverse causality.     

Foreign residency rights and companies’ auditor choice

Recently, with the migration of wealthy Chinese elites becoming increasingly prevalent, the market has come to believe that firms with controlling persons with foreign residency rights have serious agency problems. We study the impact of controlling persons with foreign residency rights on corporate audit perspective. We find that firms whose controlling persons have foreign residency rights are more likely to use high-quality auditing services, and that this behavior is more obvious in regions with lower marketization and in firms with higher separation of ownership and control. We further study the effect of firms whose controlling persons have foreign residency rights that use high-quality Big 4 auditors and find that such firms have better corporate governance and accounting performance.     

Return predictability and shareholders’ real options

This study re-interprets the properties of the residual income model by highlighting the shareholders’ abandonment (liquidation or adaptation) option. We estimate the value of this real option as an explicit component of abnormal earnings in the residual income model and test the improvement in valuation after incorporating it into the model. Relative to the traditional specification of the residual income model, this real options model has a stronger predictive power for future abnormal stock returns. We also find that the superior return predictability of the real options model is pronounced in the set of firms with a high probability of exercising liquidation options (for example, those with low profitability, low growth opportunities, high underlying asset volatility, and low intangible assets), which is consistent with the importance of shareholders’ abandonment option in equity valuation. The results are robust to extensive sensitivity checks.     

Individual investors’ information use,subjective expectations,and portfolio risk and return

What information do individual investors use when making their financial decisions and how is it related to their stock market expectations, their confidence in these expectations, and the risk and return of their stock portfolios? I study these questions by combining survey data on the information usage among individual investors in Sweden with detailed registry data on their stock portfolios. I find that investors use filtered financial information (e.g. information packaged by a professional intermediary) more frequently than they use unfiltered financial information (e.g. information from annual reports and financial statements). Investors who frequently use filtered financial information are, however, more confident in their stock market expectations and take larger risks in their stock portfolios. Investors that instead use unfiltered financial information take lower portfolio risks and obtain higher portfolio returns. The findings in this paper thus suggest that investors can improve their financial decisions by using more unfiltered financial information rather than filtered financial information when they make their financial decisions.     

Derivative activities and Asia-Pacific banks’ interest rate and exchange rate exposures

In this paper, we investigate whether the level of derivative activities of Asia-Pacific banks is associated with the market's perception of their interest rate and exchange rate risks. The results suggest that the level of derivative activities (especially interest rate derivatives) is positively associated with long-term interest rate exposure (LTIR) but negatively associated with short-term interest rate exposure (STIR). Further investigations reveal that the positive LTIR exposures are driven by banks with extensive derivative activities. We do not find any significant association between banks’ derivative activities and exchange rate exposure. The significant positive association between the level of derivative activities and LTIR suggests the need for better management of banks’ internal control systems and/or greater derivative disclosure requirements to bring stronger market discipline to banks, particularly for banks with extensive derivative activities.     

Strategy,accountants’ activities and new product development performance

Prior literature indicates that activities carried out by accountants in new product development (NPD) are important. We explore the relationship between accountants’ activities and NPD performance. We extend prior studies to identify the possible activities carried out by accountants within the NPD process to include five types of activities: basic, cost planning, cost control, profit management, and risk management. We argue that the relationship between accountants’ activities and NPD performance is contingent on firm strategy. We mainly use sales from new products over total sales to measure NPD performance. Based on a large-scale survey, the findings confirm our conjecture that the effects of the five types of activities on NPD performance generally vary as a function of the strategy adopted by the firm. The implication of these findings is that in combination with the chosen strategy, firms should concentrate on the specific activities of accountants that can improve NPD performance.     

Venture capital budgeting — Carry and correlation

We analyze venture capital budgeting in a model with agency conflicts among entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and investors. Our three-player setting is crucial for the analysis of compensation to venture capitalists. We focus on the venture capitalist's decision to invest in correlated enterprises, and we emphasize the importance of information and the venture capitalist's role in resolving adverse selection on the entrepreneurial side. The importance of information increases the minimum carried interest offered to the venture capitalist, whereas correlated projects decrease it. The carried interest is determined by the size and level of correlation in his portfolio. Our analysis provides predictions in line with a number of empirical observations, e.g. that venture capitalists typically receive a carried interest which is “sticky” around a 20% level.     

Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility

The main purpose of this paper is to consider the effect of real exchange rate volatility on equity investment by Australian investors. Equity investment is of major importance to savers and investors in Australia. Also real exchange rate volatility is an important influence on Australia’s financial integration in the global economy. Analysis of the effect of real exchange rate volatility on Australia’s equity home bias is important since Australian dollar is a commodity currency. There is a close relationship between Australia’s terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility. Home bias is measured on the basis of free float-adjusted market capitalization in recognition of the fact that closely held shares are not available to ordinary investors. Real exchange rate volatility is measured by deviations from purchasing power parity on a bilateral basis between Australia and 35 countries. The cross-border equity investment data over the period 2001–2007 are from International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey. Australian investors are found to invest significantly less in a country if the real exchange rate volatility of that country is relatively high (results that are robust to standard control measures and generalized method of moments).     

Tukey’s transformational ladder for portfolio management

Over the past half-century, the empirical finance community has produced vast literature on the advantages of the equally weighted Standard and Poor (S&P 500) portfolio as well as the often overlooked disadvantages of the market capitalization weighted S&P 500’s portfolio (see Bloomfield et al. in J Financ Econ 5:201–218, 1977; DeMiguel et al. in Rev Financ Stud 22(5):1915–1953, 2009; Jacobs et al. in J Financ Mark 19:62–85, 2014; Treynor in Financ Anal J 61(5):65–69, 2005). However, portfolio allocation based on Tukey’s transformational ladder has, rather surprisingly, remained absent from the literature. In this work, we consider the S&P 500 portfolio over the 1958–2015 time horizon weighted by Tukey’s transformational ladder (Tukey in Exploratory data analysis, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1977): \(1/x^2,\,\, 1/x,\,\, 1/\sqrt{x},\,\, \text {log}(x),\,\, \sqrt{x},\,\, x,\,\, \text {and} \,\, x^2\), where x is defined as the market capitalization weighted S&P 500 portfolio. Accounting for dividends and transaction fees, we find that the 1/\(x^2\) weighting strategy produces cumulative returns that significantly dominate all other portfolio returns, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 18% over the 1958–2015 horizon. Our story is furthered by a startling phenomenon: both the cumulative and annual returns of the \(1/x^2\) weighting strategy are superior to those of the 1 / x weighting strategy, which are in turn superior to those of the \(1/\sqrt{x}\) weighted portfolio, and so forth, ending with the \(x^2\) transformation, whose cumulative returns are the lowest of the seven transformations of Tukey’s transformational ladder. The order of cumulative returns precisely follows that of Tukey’s transformational ladder. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover this phenomenon.     

The impact of directors’ and officers’ insurance on audit pricing: Evidence from UK companies

This paper examines the impact of directors’ and officers’ (D&O) insurance on audit pricing in a large sample of UK companies. The existence of D&O insurance is expected to exert a dual impact on auditors’ pricing decisions. The presence of an additional source of funds to satisfy stakeholder claims in the event of audit client failure suggests that audit fees in insured companies should be lower. Alternatively, recent research has identified a positive link between the presence of D&O insurance and a number of characteristics traditionally associated with more expensive audits. The main objective of this study is to ascertain which of these influences pre-dominates. Analysing a sample of 753 UK listed companies in the early 1990s, when companies were obliged to disclose the presence of D&O insurance, this study shows that D&O insurance is associated with higher audit fees. It also confirms that insured companies are larger, more complex and present a greater audit risk (using a range of measures) than uninsured companies. Further analysis suggests that the impact of D&O insurance on audit fees may be influenced by company size, auditor size, and the extent of non-executive presence on the company's board.     

The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?

This paper addresses the question of whether shares of public real estate companies should be treated as real estate or as equity investments. Because theoretical considerations do not suffice for making such a classification, we empirically investigate correlation structures and cointegration relationships of private and public real estate and equity markets for the United States and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that public real estate stocks show similarities to the general stock market with regard to short-term return co-movements. For long-term investment horizons, the interdependence between direct and securitized real estate is much stronger. However, in the latter case, real estate stocks substantially lead the private property markets.

Is it real? Can we win? Is it worth doing? Managing risk and reward in an innovation portfolio

Minor innovations make up most of a company's development portfolio, on average, but they never generate the growth companies seek. The solution, says Day--the Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor of Marketing and a codirector of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at Wharton--is for companies to undertake a systematic, disciplined review of their innovation portfolios and increase the number of major innovations at an acceptable level of risk. Two tools can help them do this. The first, called the risk matrix, graphically reveals the distribution of risk across a company's entire innovation portfolio. The matrix allows companies to estimate each project's probability of success or failure, based on how big a stretch it is for the firm to undertake. The less familiar the product or technology and the intended market, the higher the risk. The second tool, dubbed the R-W-W (real-win-worth it) screen, allows companies to evaluate the risks and potential of individual projects by answering six fundamental questions about each one: Is the market real? Explores customers' needs, their willingness to buy, and the size of the potential market. Is the product real? Looks at the feasibility of producing the innovation. Can the product be competitive? and Can our company be competitive? Investigate how well suited the company's resources and management are to compete in the marketplace with the product. Will the product be profitable at an acceptable risk? Explores the financial analysis needed to assess an innovation's commercial viability. Last, Does launching the product make strategic sense? examines the project's fit with company strategy and whether management supports it.     

COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - As symbolized by vacant office buildings, empty shopping malls and abandoned flats in metropolitan areas, the new coronavirus disease 2019 has severely...     

Price and trading volume reaction: the case of Hong Kong companies’ earnings announcements

In this paper, we investigate the price changes and trading volume reactions during the days surrounding the announcements of annual earnings based on a 31-day observation window for a sample of Hong Kong firms listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). The major findings of our study: (1) materially support the findings of Morse (1981), (2) demonstrate significant price and volume reactions over four days surrounding the annual earnings announcement over the years 1992 to 1995, (3) show similar market reaction for Blue Chip stocks compared to Non–Blue Chip stocks, and (4) indicate a larger overall price reaction for Non–Blue Chip stocks and mixed results regarding volume reaction when comparing the Blue Chip and Non–Blue Chip stocks. These results show that, although the Hong Kong results are largely in line with the U.S. and international evidence, the Blue Chip stocks are followed more and remain the mainstream stocks for Hong Kong investors.     

How efficient ownership structure monitors income manipulation? Evidence of real earnings management among Malaysian firms

This study investigates income manipulation through real earnings management, by listed companies in Malaysia, prior to being officially designated as “financially distressed”, by this country’s stock exchange listed rules. The hypotheses relate to whether the degree of upwards real earnings management, conducted during the four-year period prior to financial distress, can be explained by ownership structure (measured with three variables: managerial ownership, institutional ownership and foreign ownership). Using a sample of 1180 firm-year observations of financially distressed companies, over the investigation period 2001–2011, the findings suggest that the degree of real earnings management is not associated with ownership by management or institutional investors. Conversely, the evidence indicates that foreign shareholders are able to constrain upwards real earnings management related to discretionary expenditure but not the operating cycle. This study contributes to the importance of diversity of ownership structures in monitoring income manipulation among firms.     

Trend following and option writing—a surprising portfolio

Jessica James finds a degree of polarization in the currency markets.     

What Matters in Venture Capital? Evidence from Entrepreneurs’ Stated Preferences

We study how entrepreneurs evaluate the ability of different US venture capitalists (VCs) to add value to start-up companies. Analyzing a large data set of entrepreneurs’ stated preferences regarding VCs, we demonstrate that entrepreneurs view independent partnership VCs more favorably than other VC types (e.g., corporate, financial, and government sponsored VCs). Although entrepreneurs are able to correctly identify VCs with better track records, they do not believe them to be more desirable investors. We also find that an entrepreneur's rankings are affected by their overall exposure to VCs, emphasizing the role of experiential learning in the venture capital market.