Housing Quality and the Structure Tax: Evidence from Microdata

In a previous study [13] I showed theoretically that housing quality will rise when the structure tax rate falls if capital is a noninferior input. This result was supported empirically with aggregate SMSA-level data. The present study reports empirical confirmation with microdata more appropriate for the theoretical hypothesis.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets

Many in the housing literature argue that house prices and income are cointegrated. I show that the data do not support this view. Standard tests using 27 years of national-level data do not find evidence of cointegration. However, standard tests for cointegration have low power, especially in small samples. I use panel-data tests for cointegration that are more powerful than their time-series counterparts to test for cointegration in a panel of 95 metro areas over 23 years. Using a bootstrap approach to allow for cross-correlations in city-level house-price shocks, I show that even these more powerful tests do not reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Thus the error-correction specification for house prices and income commonly found in the literature may be inappropriate.     

Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned

Forecasting changes in housing finance (instruments and institutions), housing demand (tenure, quantity, and real price), and housing production requires forecasting numerous exogenous factors—inflation, government policy, and demographic forces being the most obvious—and interpreting their impacts on the housing market. We use forecasts made over the last two decades to illustrate the importance of these variables and of interpreting their impacts appropriately.     

Competition in Local Markets: Some Evidence from the Spanish Retail Banking Market

Using the entry threshold concept developed by Bresnahan and Reiss (Brookings Pap Econ Act 3:833–882, 1987), this paper examines how competitive conditions vary in independent local banking markets when the number of depository branches grows. With data on the Spanish retail banking sector in 2003, I estimate a discrete choice model to calculate the entry thresholds. The empirical evidence suggests that the entry of a new branch implies competition on a local level. Local branches seem to have some scope for changing prices fixed on national and regional levels. Moreover, the entry of new branches increases the competition among branches with instruments other than price (e.g., advertising, location, and promotion).      

Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate

This paper employs new census vacancy rate data to analyze the price-adjustment mechanism for rental housing. The study extends previous research on this topic, which provided conflicting evidence concerning the traditional theory of rental housing market adjustment (see Smith [10] , [11] ; DeLeeuw and Ekanem [2] ; Eubank and Sirmans [4] ; and Rosen and Smith [8] ). Cross-section and time-series data are pooled to estimate natural vacancy rates for sixteen United States cities for the 1981–85 period. The analysis further explores the determinants of variation in natural vacancy rates across those metropolitan areas.     

Mortgage Credit Availability, Housing Starts and the Integration of Mortgage and Capital Markets: New Evidence Using Linear Feedback

This paper employs linear feedback measures to examine the relationship between housing starts and the availability of mortgage credit. Estimates are obtained using monthly data with samples ending with May 1978 and beginning with June 1978. The results indicate that mortgage credit availability contributed significantly to short-run cycles in housing starts in the earlier sample. Such feedback is considerably smaller, however, in the later sample. The results suggest the housing finance sector has become integrated with the overall capital market as the result of the deregulation of thrift deposit rates and the development of the securitized mortgage market.     

Urban Housing Markets Modelling: Short-Run Equilibrium Implications

This paper tests for the existence of short-run equilibrium in the urban housing market in Metropolitan Toronto. The alternative hypothesis is the housing market segmented with respect to locational and structural attributes. We found insignificant differences in attribute prices across hypothesized submarkets. This implies that an unstratified hedonic price regressions model, based on the assumption of short-run equilibrium, is equally efficient in the analysis of housing prices as a model based on a number of subsamples stratified along lines of segmentation.     

Housing Statistics: Some Sources and Some Limitations

There are presently more statistics on the size, composition, and quality of the housing stock than ever before. This article discusses some of these sources and some of their limitations. The number and diversity of housing statistics, however, can overwhelm the user, and a model or framework is needed to keep the analyst on target. The same is true of a discussion of housing statistics. The framework in Kristof's study of housing needs for the National Commission on Urban Problems is used to limit the discussion to significant housing statistics from which any type of housing analysis can be constructed.     

Contigent Price Contracts and the Efficiency of Housing Markets

Frequently, the response of housing markets to a large negative demand shock is a period during which the liquidity of housing declines, but the price at which transactions take place changes little. In this paper we show that a decline in liquidity can result from the inabilities of sellers and buyers to insure against post-shock price uncertainty. We conclude, that the introduction of a risk-sharing contingent price contract may increase the post-shock liquidity of housing by providing insurance against post-shock price uncertainty. Finally, we show that a mutually agreeable contingent price contract will always exist, even when sellers are excessively optimistic.     

Introduction: Deregulation and Reform of Housing and Housing Finance Markets: Recent Lessons from Western and Central Europe

Recent years have seen the emergence of substantial scholarly research devoted to cross-national comparisons of real estate markets and financial institutions. In part, these analyses evaluate real estate market efficiency and the distributional outcomes associated with diverse institutions and economies. Further, these analyses draw from the experience of different markets and institutions in a normative sense, so as to help facilitate the development of appropriate real estate market mechanisms and policy in emerging market economies.     

Corporate Headquarters Relocation: Evidence from the Capital Markets

This paper assesses the stock market reaction to announcements of corporate headquarters relocations and examines financial and geographical factors related to wealth effects and factors that influence the decision to relocate corporate headquarters. The results indicate that announcements of relocations are associated with significant positive stock price effects. On average, the stock price of relocating firms increases by 1.29% during the two-day period around the announcement. Abnormal returns are positively related to the availability of labor and negatively related to the cost of living in the new location and the change in employment levels. A logit analysis indicates that the probability of a firm relocating is partially determined by the firm size and the rental expenses/sales ratio. The results also indicate that firm size, the employment/asset ratio levels, and listing in the NYSE/AMEX affect the decision to relocate to a Fortune-ranked city. Finally, firms relocating to Fortune -ranked cities are characterized by a high level of insider ownership relative to firms moving to non-ranked cities.     

Why Strikes Occur: Evidence from the Capital Markets

New and existing empirical evidence regarding the stock market reaction to strikes is used to test the validity of three strike theories. A review of the existing capital market evidence reveals the need for information regarding the intraindustry announcement effects of strikes against manufacturing firms. This need is filled by applying event-study methodology, in a manner consistent with earlier studies, to a sample of strikes during the period 1982–1999. This new evidence, combined with that of previous studies, consistently supports the validity of Hick's theory that strikes are the result of bargaining errors, misperceptions of bargaining goals, or discrepancies between the expectations of union leaders and the rank and file.     

Advertising and Natural Vacancies in Rental Housing Markets

We formulate a model that explains vacancy durations arising from lags in matches between the suppliers and demanders of housing units. We emphasize rental housing markets in this exposition although the model could be extended to competitive or noncompetitive rental or home-ownership markets. In the case of rental markets, if tenants do not immediately inform landlords upon initiating search for a new unit, landlords are delayed in their search for a new tenant. These matching delays induce a positive natural vacancy rate that cannot be reduced to zero, even in competitive markets. Price-taking landlords are, however, able to affect the resulting vacancy duration through advertising in a Cournot-Nash equilibrium and will, in general, invest in inefficient levels of advertising. As a consequence, there may be a role for public policy to provide incentives that would induce noncooperative landlords to choose the vacancy cost-minimizing advertising solution.     

Price Expectations,Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect

Using a unique combination of regulatory and survey microdata, we examine the importance of the life cycle theory of consumption in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. Since the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be important in influencing housing wealth effects. We find a positive correlation between consumption and changes in housing wealth among our sample of mortgaged Irish households. Furthermore, we find that this positive association only exists when housing wealth changes are perceived to be of a permanent nature.     

Equilibrium of Housing and Real Estate Brokerage Markets Under Uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the real estate brokerage and housing markets with imperfect information. The paper considers general equilibrium in these markets with and without a multiple listing service. Input prices are found to affect the equilibrium housing price, brokerage commission, and split factor. The introduction of a multiple listing service is found to have several important effects. The MLS causes housing value to increase, but its effect on the commission rate is indeterminate. Contrary to the results of another paper, MLS brokers, on average, will likely undertake more search for both buyers and listings than will a non-MLS broker. The primary reasons are related to the greater efficiency of search in the MLS context.     

Major Developments in Residential Mortgage and Housing Markets Since the Hunt Commission

A number of important changes have been made to the mortgage finance system since the Hunt Commission filed its report, and the economic environment has been altered substantially. This paper examines shifts in the relative importance of public and private institutions in the residential mortgage markets during the past decade, within the context of Hunt Commission recommendations. Changes in the cyclical sensitivity of mortgage and housing activity, and the implications of rapid inflation for the growth of these markets, also are considered.