Creating value in the face of declining performance: firm strategies and organizational recovery

Firms that have failed to meet the performance expectations of investors must seek new ways of creating value or face the loss of financial support. Using resource‐based arguments, we find that valuable and difficult‐to‐imitate strategies that recombine the firm's existing stock of resources to create new products, processes, or technologies have a positive effect on organizational recovery as measured by investors' expectations. Similarly, acquiring new resources through mergers or acquisitions also has positive effects on investors' expectations. In contrast, valuable and difficult‐to‐imitate strategies that provide the firm with access to new resources through alliances or joint ventures do not affect investors' expectations of performance. We also find that taking actions that are not valuable and difficult‐to‐imitate either have no effect on performance or may lead to further performance declines. Lastly, our results show that valuable and difficult‐to‐imitate strategic actions that use existing resources in new ways contribute the most to organizational recovery. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investor Sentiment,Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns

This article examines the relation between investor sentiment and returns in private markets. Relative to more liquid public markets, private investment markets exhibit significant limits to arbitrage that restrict an investor's ability to counteract mispricing. Using vector autoregressive models, we find a positive and economically significant relation between investor sentiment and subsequent private market returns. We provide further long‐horizon regression evidence suggesting that private commercial real estate markets are susceptible to prolonged periods of sentiment‐induced mispricing as the inability to short‐sell in periods of overvaluation and restricted access to credit in periods of undervaluation prevents arbitrageurs from entering the market.     

Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback

Firms often make mistakes, from simple manufacturing overruns all the way to catastrophic blunders. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the nature of corporate responses when faced with evidence that an error has taken place, and, therefore, in the likelihood that such errors will reoccur in the future. In this paper, we explore an important but understudied influence on firms' responses to corrective feedback—a CEO's level of overconfidence. Using multiple distinct measures of overconfidence and the empirical context of voluntary corporate earnings forecasts, we find strong, robust evidence that firms led by overconfident CEOs are less responsive to corrective feedback in improving management forecast accuracy. We further show that this relationship is moderated by prior forecast error valence, time horizon, and managerial discretion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Top management team incentive heterogeneity,strategic investment behavior,and performance: A contingency theory of incentive alignment

Research summary : We develop and test a contingency theory of the influence of top management team (TMT) performance‐contingent incentives on manager–shareholder interest alignment. Our results support our theory by showing that although TMTs engage in significantly higher levels of acquisition investment when their average incentive levels increase, investors' responses to those large investments are generally negative. More importantly, however, we further find that within‐TMT incentive heterogeneity conditions that effect, such that investors evaluate TMTs' large acquisition investments more positively as the variance in those top managers' incentive values increases. Thus, within‐TMT incentive heterogeneity appears to increase manager–shareholder interest alignment, in the context of large acquisition investments. Managerial summary : We find that as the average value of TMTs' incentives increase, relative to their total pay, they invest more in acquisitions and investors' respond negatively to the announcement of those deals. However, we further show that investors respond more positively to acquisitions announced by TMTs whose members' incentive values vary (some TMT members hold higher incentives and others hold lower). Results imply that when TMT members hold differing incentives levels, they approach investments from divergent perspectives, scrutinize those investments more heavily, and make better decisions, relative to TMTs with similar incentives. They also suggest that boards seeking tighter manager–shareholder interest alignment may benefit from introducing variance into TMT members' incentive structures, as doing so appears to create divergent preferences that can improve team decision making. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavioral Reasons for New Product Failure: Does Overconfidence Induce Overforecasts?

Efforts to organize and integrate research findings on new product performance determinants have lagged since the last significant overview paper appeared over a decade ago. Importantly, this literature has not considered entire categories of factors that are known to affect managerial decisions and behavior, namely those that pertain to decision‐makers' cognitive limitations and incentive structures. This research empirically investigates one specific cognitive distortion heretofore neglected in studies of new product commercialization—overconfidence, commonly defined in the literature as excessive belief in one's own abilities to generate superior performance. To lay the groundwork for subsequent exploration, the paper first introduces a behavioral model that both organizes well‐understood new product performance determinants and illuminates others heretofore not studied, namely incentive alignment and cognitive limitations and biases. The model summarizes extant research and allows development of research hypotheses related to overconfidence. The hypotheses and empirical investigation motivated by the model address two questions about the impact of overconfidence on new product commercialization activities. First, the study explores whether overconfidence is associated with overforecasting new product demand. Second, it evaluates two complementary mechanisms that may account for overconfidence‐induced overforecasts. The empirical findings are based on data generated in the course of management simulation workshops conducted among graduate students at three leading business schools in India. Three hundred thirty participants played individually four rounds of a computer‐based simulation game that involved decisions pertaining to new product development (including product formulation) and commercialization strategies. The decisions were captured and analyzed using statistical techniques. The results reveal that decision‐makers' overconfidence is associated with a higher likelihood of overforecasting new product sales. The observed effect is fully mediated by flawed tactical decisions that dampen demand, namely elevated product pricing. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust to a number of alternative explanations. However, the study finds no evidence implicating overconfident individuals as poor “innovators”—overconfident and nonoverconfident decision‐makers experienced comparable market demand for their new products. The paper concludes with a discussion of the results and provides specific recommendations for practice.     

Real Estate in an ALM Framework: The Case of Fair Value Accounting

This study examines the liability hedging characteristics of both direct and indirect real estate with the advent of fair value accounting obligations for pension funds. We explicitly model pension obligations as being subject to interest and inflation risk to analyze the ability of real estate investments in hedging the fair value of pension liabilities and to quantify its role in an asset liability management (ALM) portfolio. We find that the portfolio composition differs depending on the definition of liability return. When liability returns solely follow actuarial changes, the mean‐variance efficient portfolio allocations toward direct real estate and fixed income decrease compared to the asset‐only optimization. When accounting for nominal liability obligations, real estate offers hedging benefits against interest rates for short holding periods but not for long‐term institutional portfolios. The inclusion of inflation risk renders a limited role for direct real estate in an ALM portfolio, while indirect real estate obtains no allocation. Inflation is at the heart of the discrepancy between reported and predicted pension plan allocations. Once accounting for inflation, the projected allocations come close to reported ones.     

Equity stakes and exit: An experimental approach to decomposing exit delay

Research summary : Exit delay is an important problem for entrepreneurs and managers alike, yet relatively little is known about its causes. We conduct a laboratory experiment in which optimal exit is well defined, and in which a treatment group with equity stakes—the actual cash flows of a firm and decision rights over its continuation—is compared to a control group whose compensation is based solely on its assessment of the firm's profitability. While treatment group participants make exit decisions that are nearly optimal given their beliefs, their beliefs are significantly distorted relative to the control group. The pattern of distortion is consistent with confirmatory bias and motivated reasoning. A fundamental finding of our study is that incentives may not only affect behavior, but belief formation as well. Managerial summary : Managers and entrepreneurs frequently destroy significant value by failing to shut down underperforming businesses in a timely manner. To address this problem, we must understand the mechanisms causing exit delay. We examine behavioral mechanisms causing delay through a laboratory experiment in which subjects make decisions about when to exit a failing venture. We find that “equity stakes”—receiving the firm's cash flows and having decision rights over exit—cause participants to discount negative performance information, retain overly optimistic beliefs, and delay exit. By contrast, participants without these high‐powered incentives exit nearly optimally. Our findings suggest ways to reduce exit delay in managerial settings, including implementing automated decision rules, removing equity‐based compensation, and recruiting managers less susceptible to knowledge overconfidence, a trait associated with exit delay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entrepreneurial beacons: The Yale endowment,run‐ups,and the growth of venture capital

Research summary : This article investigates the social context of entrepreneurship in organizational sectors. Prior research suggests that firm foundings are driven by collective patterns of activity—such as patterns of prior foundings in a given sector. Building on research on social salience and signals, we consider the influence of singular sector‐level triggers, which we call entrepreneurial beacons. We argue that the actions or outcomes of single, salient organizations attract and motivate entrepreneurs, thus increasing the rate of foundings. We test this logic by examining the impact of the Y ale U niversity endowment's investment choices and of venture‐capital‐backed IPO run‐ups on venture‐capital foundings between 1984 and 2011. We find support for the existence and influence of beacons and outline boundary conditions for their effects . Managerial summary : What leads entrepreneurs to found new companies in nascent sectors? In contrast to prior research, which emphasizes patterns of activity, we argue that entrepreneurial activity can sometimes be driven by the actions of a singular trigger—what we call an entrepreneurial beacon. We examine the influence of two such beacons, Y ale U niversity's endowment investments and exceptional venture‐capital‐backed IPO run‐ups, on the founding of new venture‐capital firms over a 28‐year period. We find that Y ale's increased allocations to the venture‐capital asset‐class has a significant influence on the founding of new venture‐capital firms, while exceptional venture‐capital‐backed IPO run‐ups only influence venture‐capital foundings under certain conditions. Overall, we offer an explanation for heretofore anecdotal accounts of certain organizations or events that appear to have an outsized influence on entrepreneurial activity . Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does pre‐entry licensing undermine the performance of subsequent independent activities? Evidence from the global aerospace industry, 1944–2000

We study how firms' use of in‐licensing for their initial entry to a business domain can detract from the performance of their subsequent autonomous endeavors in the domain. We argue that in‐licensing produces high levels of causal ambiguity about factors that drive the performance achieved with the licensed product. In turn, the experience that firms gather through pre‐entry licensing is likely to generate superstitious learning and overconfidence that undermine the performance of licensees' subsequent independent operations. The biases will be particularly strong in the face of contextual dissimilarity. We find consistent evidence in a study of firms that entered the global aircraft industry between 1944 and 2000. The research helps advance the understanding of the benefits and costs of markets for technology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Executive turnover in the stock option backdating wave: The impact of social context

While boards are known to react to corporate misconduct by removing the executives responsible, little is known about whether the board's response is shaped by the firm's social context. Using the 2006 stock option backdating scandal, in which firms manipulated stock option grant dates, we examine the impact of two dimensions of social context—the pervasiveness of the misconduct and the media attention to the misconduct. We find that firms implicated later in the backdating scandal are less likely to experience executive turnover than those implicated earlier. We also find that the amount of media attention to backdating at the time a firm is implicated in the scandal increases the likelihood that the firm experiences executive turnover.Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

We examine the canonical influence of global market, currency and inflation risks on the returns from international real estate securities. In addition, we study how mispricing of credit in the local banking systems is related to the returns from these securities. We analyze a global sample of real estate securities over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypotheses. We find support for the anticipated relationships between macroeconomic risk factors and the returns from international real estate securities. Our evidence also supports the expected link between local credit market conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.     

Conceptualizing executive hubris: the role of (hyper‐)core self‐evaluations in strategic decision‐making

Researchers have long been interested in how an executive's self‐concept affects his or her behaviors, but have lacked a theoretically grounded, validated construct for conducting systematic inquires. The concept of ‘core self‐evaluation’ (CSE), which has been recently validated in the psychology literature, concisely encompasses and consolidates the common, overlapping portions of four previously unconnected personality dimensions: self‐esteem, self‐efficacy, locus of control, and emotional stability. CSE has great potential to provide substantial leverage for research on executive self‐concept. We review and reconcile prior research on related constructs in executive settings (including narcissism, hubris, and overconfidence) and argue that CSE should be adopted as a robust, well‐validated umbrella construct for research on executive self‐concept. Indeed, a very high level of CSE, or hyper‐CSE, aligns closely with what is often colloquially called ‘hubris.’ We anticipate that hyper‐CSE executives—who possess supreme levels of self‐confidence, self‐potency, and conviction that they will prevail—will manifest this trait in their job behaviors. We develop a set of integrated propositions that describe the implications of CSE for strategic decision processes, strategic choices, and organizational performance. Finally, we propose additional avenues for research. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Governance,ownership structure,and performance of IPO firms: the impact of different types of private equity investors and institutional environments

This paper examines performance effects of ownership concentration and two types of private equity investors (venture capitalists and business angels) in firms that have recently undergone an initial public offering (IPO) in the United Kingdom and France. We expand and contextualize nascent understanding of multiple agency theory by examining heterogeneity of private equity investors and by suggesting that multiple agency relationships are affected by different institutional contexts. We employ a unique, hand‐collected dataset of 224 matched IPOs (112 in each country). Controlling for the endogeneity of private equity investors' retained share ownership, we find support for the agency theory argument that concentrated ownership improves IPOs' performance. The research also shows that the two types of private equity investors have a differential impact on performance, and the legal institutions in a given country moderate this impact. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real Estate Fund Openings and Cannibalization

This article examines the trade‐offs in launching new real estate funds, specifically open‐end, direct‐property funds. This investment vehicle, which is designed to provide the risk‐return benefits of private market real estate, is available to retail investors in a number of countries. At the same time, these funds are also subject to liquidity risk, because they hold an inherently illiquid asset in an open‐end structure. This format presents fund‐family managers with unique challenges, particularly with the decision to open new funds. The data consist of 2,127 German fund openings across 76 fund families in 12 asset classes over the 1992–2010 period. Including a wide range of asset classes allows for a comparison between real estate and other investment objectives. We find a substantial cannibalization effect across the existing real estate funds of a family, while we note the opposite effect—i.e., flows into existing funds increase following a fund opening within the same objective—for all other asset classes. Our analysis of fund opening determinants shows that inflows mitigate the cannibalization risk for new real estate funds. Additional evidence highlights the role of scale and scope economies in real estate fund openings. Overall, the results provide new insights into the relatively large size and small number of real estate funds when compared to mutual funds dedicated to other investment objectives.     

The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk

Lenders are frequently accused of mispricing the put option embedded in nonrecourse lending. Prior research shows one lender's incentives to underprice. Here, we identify the conditions for a marketwide underpricing equilibrium. We demonstrate that, in a market with many players, given sufficient time, a race to the bottom and marketwide mispricing are inevitable. Underpricing occurs because bank managers and shareholders exploit mispriced deposit insurance. We show that the probability of the underpricing equilibrium increases with time since the previous market crash and that the more volatile the underlying asset market, the more likely it is subject to underpricing.     

Entrepreneurial failure: Statistical and psychological explanations

Research summary : Entrepreneurial start‐ups suffer high rates of business failure. Previous research on entrepreneurial failure has focused on two kinds of explanations: statistical and psychological. Statistical explanations attribute excess entry to random errors made by boundedly rational entrepreneurs attempting to estimate business opportunities in risky markets. Psychological explanations focus on entrepreneurial overconfidence and competition neglect. These explanations emerged independently and have not been tested or compared in the same study. In this experimental study, we distinguish entrepreneurial markets from other types of markets and test statistical and psychological hypotheses for all market types. We find that excess entry is significantly greater in small, risky markets than in other market types, and that confidence levels account for excess entry, over and above the effects of unbiased statistical errors. Managerial summary : How can we explain the fact that most entrepreneurial ventures fail within five years? Market risk, inadequate capital and inexperienced management certainly play a role. However, from an economic point of view, it seems odd that inexperienced, under‐funded people continue to engage in risky behavior that is widely known to fail. We conducted experiments that tested two explanations of entrepreneurial failure. The first explanation – the statistical hypothesis – argues that entrepreneurship involves high uncertainty, so random errors are inevitable and can produce excess entry (or under‐entry). The second explanation – the psychological hypothesis – says that entrepreneurs' mistakes are not random but skewed heavily toward excess entry; hence, their decisions are distorted by psychological factors such as overconfidence. Our experiments found support for both of these explanations. Random errors under uncertainty explained 60% of the excess entry in our experiments. However, the overconfidence hypothesis correctly predicted that excess entry exceeds under‐entry, and our psychological measures of overconfidence found support in the data. We also found that the markets that most often attract entrepreneurial investment – emerging markets with high uncertainty – were the markets most conducive to excess entry, due to a combination of psychological and market factors. Hence, we conclude that potential entrepreneurs should pay less attention to their own abilities and aspirations, and more attention to the external realities of competition in the marketplace. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Customer retention: A source of value for serial acquirers

Customer retention, in most cases, is regarded as an indicator of acquisition performance, but factors influencing it have rarely been studied in the serial acquirer context. As a consequence, this paper presents a model of the linkage between serial acquirers and customer retention by drawing on serial acquirer and customer relationship marketing and management literature. The paper proposes that the serial acquirers' focus on retaining acquired firms' business customers per acquisition deals may enhance the post-acquisition value. Furthermore, serial acquirers' acquisition experience (skills), managerial overconfidence/hubris, own customers' behaviour and technological context are identified to impact the customer retention of the acquired firm. Moreover, two dual-purpose variables—acquired firms' customer experience and acquired firms' customer relationships—are proposed to moderate the effects of serial acquirers' acquisition experience (skills), managerial overconfidence/hubris, own customers' behaviour and technological context on acquired firm customer retention and also to autonomously influence acquired firms' customer retention. The implications for serial acquirers and practice are discussed.     

Free‐riding in multi‐party alliances: The role of perceived alliance effectiveness and peers' collaboration in a research consortium

Research summary : Multi‐party alliances rely on partners' willingness to commit and pool their efforts in joint endeavors. However, partners face the dilemma of how much to commit to the alliance. We shed light on this issue by analyzing the relationship between partners' free‐riding—defined as their effort‐withholding—and their perceptions of alliance effectiveness and peers' collaboration. Specifically, we posit a U‐shaped relationship between partners' subjective evaluations of alliance effectiveness and their free‐riding. We also hypothesize a negative relation between partners' perceptions of the collaboration of peer organizations and their free‐riding. Results from a mixed‐method study—combining regression analysis of primary data on a major inter‐organizational research consortium and evidence from two experimental designs—support our hypotheses, bearing implications for the multi‐party alliances literature. Managerial summary : Free‐riding is a major concern in multi‐party alliances such as large research consortia, since the performance of these governance forms hinges on the joint contribution of multiple partners that often operate according to different logics (e.g., universities, firms, and government agencies). We show that, in such alliances, partners' perceptions have relevant implications for their willingness to contribute to the consortium's shared goals. Specifically, we find that partners free‐ride more—that is, contribute less—when they perceive the effectiveness of the overall alliance to be either very low or very high. Partners also gauge their commitment to the alliance on the perception of the effort of their peers—that is, other organizations similar to them. These findings provide managers of multi‐party alliances with additional levers to motivate partners to contribute fairly to such joint endeavor. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

资产价格波动、通货膨胀与产业“空心化”——基于我国沿海地区民营工业面板数据的实证研究

本文利用2001—2010年我国沿海地区12省市民营工业的面板数据,实证检验了资产价格波动、通货膨胀对我国沿海地区民营工业"规模空心化"与"效率空心化"的影响。结果表明,房地产价格上涨、通货膨胀存在引发民营工业"规模空心化"和"效率空心化"的作用机制。股价上涨一方面对民营实体投资具有"挤出效应",加剧民营工业的"规模空心化",另一方面对民营工业的技术效率存在促进效应,一定程度上又减轻了"效率空心化"。宏观政策上,可以通过调控资产价格、降低通货膨胀预期来对民营工业"空心化"进行积极干预。短期内要为民营工业营造良好的生存环境,长期内要抛弃"依靠低要素价格在低附加值领域维持低成本竞争"的发展模式,开辟新的利润源泉,民营工业的"空心化"才能真正好转。     

Undervaluation of directors in the board hierarchy: Impact on turnover of directors (and CEOs) in newly public firms

Research summary: We examine the consequences of the formalization of the board leadership structure at IPO for board‐level turnover. We introduce the concept of director undervaluation. It indicates the degree to which a director’s qualifications based on normatively accepted criteria for board leadership are not duly reflected in his/her appointments to the board chair and committee chair positions. We find that the higher the average undervaluation of directors on the board (“board undervaluation”), the greater the turnover levels of undervalued directors. This effect is stronger when board interaction frequency is higher. We contribute to the behavioral perspective on corporate governance by introducing justice‐based legitimacy as a key normative institution, and by providing a novel predictor of aggregate turnover of directors (as well as the firm’s CEO). Managerial summary: Why do outside directors exit the board? We offer a novel answer to this question in the context of newly public firms. We suggest that when directors are passed over for the board chair and committee chair positions despite having higher qualifications than their peers, they have been “undervalued,” and a negative board climate is likely to develop. We find that the higher the average undervaluation of directors on the board, the higher the turnover levels of these undervalued directors. More frequent board meetings exacerbate these turnover levels. Further, these turnover effects are not restricted to undervalued directors—even the CEO is more likely to exit. This study demonstrates the critical importance of developing a legitimate and fair board leadership structure.