Role of international politics on agri‐food trade: Evidence from US–Canada bilateral relations

A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States.     

President Biden's international trade agenda: Implications for the Canadian agrifood sector

The 4 years of the Trump administration was marked by a number of events and policies that affected the Canadian agrifood sector. Changes to preferential trade agreements, the collapse of the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement framework, increased domestic support for US farmers, and diplomatic tensions between the United States and China all shaped international trade flows and created an environment of policy uncertainty. The Biden administration will change course on several important trade policy issues. We discuss how these changes could affect the Canadian agrifood sector along a number of dimensions, including a return to multilateralism, (re)engagement in preferential trade agreements, and movements toward a less combative and more predictable trade policy agenda. We expect Canadian agrifood trade flows under the Biden administration to exceed what they would have been under a second Trump administration.     

Conceptualising multifunctional agriculture from a global perspective: Implications for governing agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era

The notion of multifunctional agriculture has been researched from diverse disciplines including economics, sociology, political economy, and geography since the URAA. In particular, the economics approach represents an attempt to tailor the concept of multifunctional agriculture to market- oriented WTO trade regime. The approach has been fundamentally troubled by the lack of concord among WTO member countries on the question of what constitutes multifunctional agriculture. This article redefines multifunctional agriculture as a concept encompassing six components that are extremely heterogeneous in their nature of external benefits. Upon examining different positions taken by the US, the EU, the Cairns group, LDCs, and the G10, this article develops a conceptual model explaining why the notion of multifunctional agriculture is conceived so differently across countries. The model posits that institutions, natural resources endowment, ecological conditions, farm policies, and culture/history unique to each country would determine the state of economic development and agricultural competitiveness in a country, which in turn shape the pattern of social demand for various components of multifunctional agriculture. The theorizing undertakes to overcome the Euro- centrism that has dictated the discourse of multifunctional agriculture since the URAA. Implications are discussed for the governance of agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era.     

Women farmers’ participation in the agricultural research process: implications for agricultural sustainability in Ethiopia

Empowering women farmers to participate in agricultural research is a key strategy for sustainable agricultural development. Women empowerment has the potential to improve their roles in agricultural production while enhancing nutrition and food security. Although new agricultural development policies are focusing on improving women engagement in agriculture, there is limited literature on women empowerment in relation to agricultural research. This study used mixed methods to analyse women farmers’ participation in four stages of the agricultural research process – design, testing, dissemination, monitoring and evaluation. Two hundred and thirty individual interviews with women farmers and 16 focus group discussions with men and women farmers were conducted in four Woredas (districts) of Ethiopia. Quantitative data were analysed using binary and multivariate probit models. Qualitative data were analysed using line-by-line coding. The results showed that several empowerment indicator variables significantly (p?≤?.001) influenced women’s participation in different stages of agricultural research. Specifically, input in production decisions, autonomy in plot management, membership to farmer groups, and ability to speak in public enhanced women’s participation in different stages, in addition to access to information and extension services, education and land size. Cultural norms hindered women’s empowerment and engagement in research. To foster sustainable agriculture development, it’s important to integrate holistic and proactive gender perspectives into research strategies to increase women’s participation in farmer research groups, access information and knowledge, have voice and challenge constraining cultural norms and traditions.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey

This study addresses the impact of exchange rate levels and uncertainty on bilateral agricultural trade between Turkey and 20 major trading partners, using panel cointegration analysis for annual data covering the period 1980–2005. Results show that (i) the exchange rate level is less robustly linked to trade volumes than is exchange rate uncertainty, (ii) exchange rate uncertainty is associated with smaller trade volumes in both directions, but more so for imports than for exports, and (iii) income growth in Turkey is associated with greater imports, just as income growth among trading partners is associated with greater exports. These findings provide some clues for understanding the recent patterns of Turkish agricultural trade, and suggest directions for future research.     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

A scale invariant model for the expansion of agricultural land and government spending on the agricultural sector

The expansion dynamics of the agricultural surface is a complex process, since it requires decisions among different actors under a multitude of socioeconomic and natural conditions, expectations, and risks. This paper shows that despite this complexity, and at odds with the intuition, the density of agricultural lands and the government spending to foster agriculture around a human settlement displays a simple power-law relationship regarding the distance to such a settlement. The theoretical proof of this relationship is based on theoretical and empirical findings made by several authors on the expansion of population centers, river networks, species and ecosystem’s distribution. The empirical proof is made by fitting a simple power-law model having as response variables: density of agricultural land; government spending coverage, and government spending per unit of agricultural surface, while the distance to the centroid settlement is used as independent variable. Results show that the scaling exponents of the power-law relationship estimated from those models, with data from rural settlements in Mexico, are similar statistically to the expected values from theoretical models for the three expansion processes tested. Three applications of the scale-invariant attribute characterizing the expansion process of agricultural lands are presented:

• i)monitoring agricultural activities at the territories;
• ii)a proxy to estimate the expected growth of the agricultural surface; and
• iii)a typology to characterize government assistance at local level.

     

Gender and agricultural productivity: implications of the Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi

Alleviating gender differences in agricultural productivity is vital for poverty reduction. While numerous studies suggest that gender differences in agricultural productivity are a result of female farmers having limited access to resources, few studies investigate the role of agricultural interventions in alleviating the constraints to input use and subsequently the gender gap in productivity. This study investigates whether there are gendered gains in agricultural productivity from participating in an input subsidy program and if these gains help reduce the gender gap. Using nationally representative data that is disaggregated at the plot level, this study analyzes the large‐scale voucher‐based Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi. Focusing on the total value of output per hectare, relationships are identified using weighted estimators, where the weights are constructed from propensity scores, and spatial fixed effects, to address the unobservable factors that may confound the relationship between program participation and productivity. The findings suggest that participation in the program improves agricultural productivity for both male and female farmers but it does not provide disproportionate help to female famers to overcome gender disparities in agricultural productivity. This suggests that female farmers face additional constraints to productivity apart from nonlabor input use.     

Trade liberalization in the bio‐economy: coping with a new landscape

Multilateral trade liberalization has made little progress over the last period, but preferential agreements have multiplied. Recent economic literature helps understand the current negotiation game. New economic and political conditions, in particular the gaining influence of emerging countries, make a multilateral agreement more difficult. Developed countries have given up many of their bargaining chips in previous rounds of negotiation and their remaining agricultural tariffs are not sufficient for extracting the concessions from emerging countries on services, procurement, and intellectual property that would make an agreement possible. The risk of a more fragmented world calls for a revised negotiation agenda and a change in the status of developing countries. Research issues are outlined in order to help revitalize the Doha negotiation agenda.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

Geographical indication regulation and intra‐trade in the European Union

Protection of indications of geographical origin (GIs) can reduce information asymmetry between producers and consumers, and potentially enhance trade. However, GIs can also possibly divert trade. We rely on panel data about agri‐food trade among the 27 countries of the European Union to investigate these issues using variations of estimators proposed by Head and Mayer ( 2000 ) and Santos Silva and Tenreyro ( 2006 ). Our findings suggest that the protection of GIs creates trade when the importing and exporting countries have GI‐protected products. There is also empirical evidence regarding a trade‐diverting effect when the importing country does not have GIs and a border enlargement effect arising from European GI‐protection.     

An assessment of ordinary landscapes by an expert and by its residents: Landscape values in areas of intensive agricultural use

The expert-based approach to landscape assessment developed in North America during the 1970s is still largely used in planning. It has proved its usefulness for the protection and the management of landscapes with remarkable visual attributes. However, facing growing social demands for the quality of surroundings, ordinary landscapes also raise great challenges for planning. But, to what extent is the expert-based approach to landscape assessment able to capture the value of these ordinary landscapes? What might be the more appropriate method for this purpose? This paper addresses these questions through an empirical research project in areas of intensive agricultural use in Quebec (Canada). The aim of this research was to measure and compare the ability of an expert-based approach and of a lay people-based approach, also named experiential approach, to capture the most valued components of ordinary landscapes. These methods were applied to two study areas. The first one has no recognised landscapes in any planning document while the second one has recognised landscapes for regional tourism. Forty-six inhabitants and an expert were invited to evaluate the landscapes of the study areas. The results have allowed comparison of the components valued by the expert and by the inhabitants as well as the criteria used in the assessment. They revealed differences between the expert and the lay people assessment. For inhabitants, the value of ordinary landscapes is based on a set of criteria related to emotion, to everyday experience and to their intimate knowledge of places. Thus, the formal visual criteria used by the expert appear to be clearly less important in the evaluation by lay people. As the expert perspective in landscape assessment is more closely associated to the experience of an individual which cross the territory (ex.: tourist), this paper concludes that to capture the value of ordinary landscapes in a planning perspective, a combination of approaches is necessary.     

Industrial relations reform in Australia: implications for the agricultural and mining sectors

A major transformation in the processes that underpin industrial relations arrangements in Australia appears to have occurred during the last decade. The tribunal-based systems of conciliation and arbitration that have shaped labour-management relationships now play a far less pivotal role, and the system of awards is far less central to the determination of wages and conditions. Greater scope now exists for employees and employers to tailor their industrial relationship to the needs of the enterprise. This article provides an overview of the development of both collective and non-collective bargaining within the formal framework, and the likely impacts of such developments.     

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

This article investigates the links between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to the agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly developed, recursive right‐tailed unit root test. A Zero‐inflated Poisson model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that (a) there were speculative bubbles in most Chinese agricultural commodity futures markets during the sample period, though their presence was infrequent; (b) economic growth, money supply, and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rates have a negative effect; and (c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest impact in triggering bubbles. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubbles in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets.     

Fostering a culture of equity,diversity, and inclusion in the Canadian agricultural economics profession

The Canadian agricultural economics profession, like much of society, is faced with the important challenge of how to effectively achieve aspirational goals of equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI). I argue that the Canadian agricultural economics society (CAES) will benefit from integrating EDI into our core mission and key activities. I focus on a select set of issues that I believe will further this effort. Given the critical role of scholarly merit and merit‐based systems and processes in the CAES mandate and activities, I also explore how meritocracy and scholarly merit can be aligned with EDI principles. The paper concludes with suggestions and recommendations for consideration by the CAES.     

How smallholder farmers adapt to agricultural drought in a changing climate: A case study in southern China

Although the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate change and its attendant hazards have attracted widespread attention, the quantitative detection and evaluation of their adaptive behaviors remains a difficult task that deserves further study. This article describes an empirical case study performed in southern China to examine the adaptation strategies of paddy farmers to agricultural drought. We collected first-hand data through household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with local managers, and farm-level land-use surveys. The effectiveness of the adaptation approaches of the farmers was assessed in terms of the ecological, economic, and social benefits. Our findings indicate that over the past three decades, when confronted with recurrent seasonal drought in a warming climate, farmers have gradually abandoned the double-cropping rice production and transformed their cropping patterns into a new diversified mode of “Rice-Cole, rice, cotton, seedling nursery, and coarse cereals”. Current farming practice reduces the vulnerability of local agriculture to drought, and allows farmers to diversify and improve their incomes, which contributes to enhanced resilience and adaptability to drought. However, the autonomous adaptation of farmers may primarily serve their interests of minimizing drought risk and maximizing economic profits but could also undermine the social benefits, such as regional grain security. A robust adaptation strategy should balance the ecological and economic benefits with social interests to maintain agricultural sustainability.     

Special and differential treatment in the WTO agricultural negotiations: Analysis and policy recommendation

The on-going Doha Development Round under the World Trade Organization (WTO) has its main focus on development. This is due to the widespread disappointment with the results from the former Uruguay Round Agreement. Developing countries have not reaped the benefits of free trade. For this current Round to be a success, developing countries have to be more integrated in the multilateral trading system. One of the means of integrating is Special and Differential Treatment (SDT). SDT is a deviation from the basic principle of Most Favoured Nation, positing that developing countries can have more flexibility than others. This article investigates the positions on SDT made by WTO members. The analysis gives some insights into the negotiations. First, the analysis reveals the fact that the positions of WTO members are relatively close to each other. This could indicate that countries in fact agree or that sensitive areas are maintained as yet unaffected. Second, being able to sustain a certain level of tariff rates attracts most interest from developing countries. Third, higher income developing countries want to retain their right to support domestic producers. Finally, the article identifies the July Package right in the middle of the positions which indicate a future agreement.     

Externalities in the agricultural export sector and economic growth: a developing country perspective

For years economists have ignored the diversity in agriculture and its potential to increase long run growth rates by enhancing a country's knowledge base. Non-traditional agriculture requires significant investments in the infrastructure and knowledge; and therefore, has the potential to increase long run growth rates. Policy makers in developing countries have tended to enact macroeconomic policies designed to enhance the manufacturing sector at the expense of the agricultural sector. A theoretical model is developed to explain the dynamics between two non-traditional export sectors and the long run economic growth of the country. The model illustrates that growth in highly perishable agricultural exports, not domestic production of manufactured goods, can potentially lead to higher long run growth rates. The model is applied to the fruit and flower industries in Colombia to bring forth an example with real world relevance.     

A novel approach for assessing the contribution of agricultural systems to the sustainable development of regions with multi-scale indicators: Application to Guadeloupe

The assessment of agriculture at a regional scale is necessary to better guide regional agricultural planning. To improve the contribution of agriculture to sustainable regional development, assessments must take account of the locations and diversity of cropping systems. We have therefore developed a method based on a set of multi-scale indicators to assess the contribution of agriculture to the sustainable development of regions, and its evolution over time. This method can identify: i) sustainability issues, ii) relevant indicators that will provide information on impacts at the field scale, iii) a method to aggregate indicators, iv) data on cropping systems, and v) a database containing spatial units to analyse the whole region. Application of this method to Guadeloupe (2004–2010) enabled the definition of ten issues and 16 indicators, with three procedures to aggregate information from 36 cropping systems allocated to 11,908 fields between 2004 and 2010. Economic, social and environmental sustainability was poor in 2004, with high dependency on subsidies (47.3 M€ yr⁻¹), low agricultural added value (48.5 M€ yr⁻¹), low employment (only 1799 workers), significant risks of crop contamination and pressure on water quality. The total value of subsidies and the risks of river pollution tended to decrease between 2004 and 2010 because of a reduction in intensive banana cropping systems. In parallel, we were able to see that sugar cane, the most widespread crop in Guadeloupe, made only a small contribution to employment and food self-sufficiency during the studied period. The spatial representation revealed that improvements have been seen in southern Guadeloupe due to reductions in banana cultivation. This method was therefore helpful in identifying the most critical agricultural development issues and helping to highlight areas where relevant agricultural land use policies could be formulated.