The use of expected value in pricing judgments

Lacking specific knowledge, the public perceives technical risks based on their trust in the authorities. This article explored the role of shared value in the process of trust judgment and risk perception of genetically modified (GM) foods. Study 1 showed that social trust was a mediator between shared value and risk perception. Higher value similarity between individual and spokesperson resulted in deeper trust in the institution; moreover, social trust effectively reduced public risk perception of GM foods. Study 2 demonstrated that shared value improved in the care and competence dimensions of trust. The two dimensions of trust were positively related, but only competence had a significant influence on risk perception. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

Do Financial Liberalization Policies Promote Exports? Evidence from China's Panel Data

This paper empirically tests whether a country's financial reform promotes expansion of its exports measured by the constant-price total value of exports. We test the hypothesis on dynamic panel data of China. We use system GMM (generalized method of moments) estimation to deal with the potential endogeneity problem of important explanatory variables, including financial deregulation. We find that the estimated coefficient on financial deregulation in both ordinary least squares and system GMM estimation is positive and insignificant at the 5 percent level after controlling for other factors affecting export expansion and for fixed time and province effects.     

Fails‐to‐Deliver before and after the Implementation of Rule 203 and Rule 204

We study the determinants of fails‐to‐deliver in the period before and after the implementation of Rule 203 (elimination of option market maker exception from the locate and close‐out requirement) and Rule 204 (t+3 close‐out rule) in September 2008. We find a positive relation between short selling and fails‐to‐deliver that weakens after the implementation of these rules. Fails‐to‐deliver are higher for stocks with low institutional ownership, low book‐to‐market, small market capitalization, high turnover, and put option availability. The relation between short selling and these measures of borrowing costs is also weaker after the implementation of these rules.     

Short Sales Constraints and Momentum in Stock Returns

Abstract:   We show that stock characteristics identified by D'Avolio (2002) provide a reliable index of the mostly unobservable short sales constraints. Specifically, we find that this index is positively related to the level of short interest and to short selling costs implied by the disparity in prices in the options and stock markets, and is negatively related to future returns. Using this index, we show that the magnitude of momentum returns for the period 1984 to 2001 is positively related to short sales constraints, and loser stocks rather than winner stocks drive this result. We conclude that short sales constraints are important in preventing arbitrage of momentum in stock returns.     

全球贸易失衡成因分析：基于中美贸易失衡视角下的实证分析

当前全球正经历着第三次贸易失衡,也是最为严重的一次贸易失衡.贸易失衡给世界经济、政治、文化等各个方面带来严重冲击,甚至引发全球性的危机.文章从国际贸易相关理论出发,认为各国间的单位劳动力成本、经济增长差异、对外贸易竞争力差异和储蓄率差异均是导致全球贸易失衡的主要影响因素.全球贸易失衡现有治理机制存在一定的缺陷,文章结合现有贸易失衡治理机制优缺点和全球贸易失衡主要成因,提出解决全球贸易失衡的对策建议.     

股权结构、动态内生性与公司代理成本

本文以716家上市公司为样本,在动态内生性的框架下,运用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法,同时考虑了三种内生性,以动态性的视角,不仅研究了当期股权结构对当期代理成本的影响,还研究了股权结构与代理成本间的跨时期相互作用。通过研究,我们发现：（1）不仅当期股权结构对当期代理成本有影响,而且前期股权结构也对当期代理成本有影响,股权结构对代理成本的影响有持续期;（2）前期代理成本对当期股权结构有反馈效应;（3）股权结构与代理成本间存在动态内生性。     

市场内生决定金融机构数量的有效性分析——基于金融机构经营成本的比较研究

基于金融机构经营需要消耗一定成本,修正金融内生增长模型,运用该模型推导出市场内生决定的金融机构数量,然后通过对金融部门经营成本的比较动态分析,从整个社会层面考察由市场内生决定的金融机构数量是否是有效的.结果表明:市场内生的金融机构数量一般是无效的,社会管理部门可以通过对金融机构数量的调整提高金融部门效率,促进经济增长.     

When Is a Treasury Security On‐the‐Run?

The literature contains two conflicting definitions of the on‐the‐run period for Treasury securities. We address the conflict by empirically examining the implications of the two definitions. We conclude that it is important that researchers clearly understand the implications of each definition. Our results suggest that on‐the‐run activity spans different auction calendar time in T‐notes and T‐bills.     

Long‐Term post‐merger announcement performance. A case study of Australian listed real estate

This study examines the long‐term postmerger performance of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A‐REITs). The A‐REIT sector is used as a case study being less vulnerable to agency issues due to its regulatory structure (Eichholtz and Kok, 2008; Ratcliffe et al., 2009). Research on conventional firms has shown, on average, shareholders are worse off in the long run (Alexandridis et al., 2012). In contrast, we find that shareholders experience significantly positive abnormal returns, after accounting for the financial crisis. This outcome suggests that when managers are restricted with the use of retained earnings and the type of investment, they may be less susceptible to hubris and/or agency issues.     

Triple‐entry accounting with blockchain: How far have we come?

Although double‐entry accounting has been used for more than 600 years, today’s era of disruptive technological change utilising blockchain and FinTech has led to the emergence of another promising accounting method: triple‐entry accounting. This paper explores triple‐entry accounting, from its conception to the current state of play, using three case studies. We find that: (i) in a blockchain ecosystem, for some accounts, business entities will only need to perform a single entry internally and the opposite entry will be recorded in a public shared ledger; and (ii) triple‐entry accounting is a new and a more efficient way to address fundamental trust and transparency issues that plague current accounting systems. Triple‐entry accounting with blockchain, when properly implemented, can fundamentally improve accounting.     

中国劳动收入份额决定因素的实证研究:结构调整抑或财政效应?

本文利用1993～2006年中国省级地区的面板数据对影响劳动收入份额的决定因素进行实证研究,结果发现,政府财政收支对劳动收入份额具有显著的间接而持续的双重挤压作用;而整体的产业结构变迁效应不具有显著的作用。这证实包含政府部门的内生增长过程中劳动收入份额受到财政收入和支出行为的间接负面影响,财政收入的资本依赖和扩张性支出的资本偏向有利于保持较高的经济增长水平,扩张产出规模,同时提高了资本的产出效率和回报份额,间接地导致劳动收入份额呈下降趋势。     

Shorting costs and profitability of long–short strategies

We examine how the profitability of long–short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies is affected after adjustment for two shorting costs: implicit cost due to unavailability of stocks in the short-leg to sell short and loan fees actually paid to stock lenders. The combined shorting cost amounts to almost 40 percent of long–short gross returns over the sample period from January 2006 to December 2017. After adjustment for these shorting costs, long–short arbitrage profits are thus reduced by almost 40 percent. Even after adjustment for risk, the proportion of shorting costs is also substantial. If other trade-related transaction costs are considered, long–short arbitrage profits would be reduced further. Our results provide explicit evidence that casts doubt on the profitability of long-short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies.     

Technology,Utilization, and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?

We argue that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve literature has failed to deliver a convincing measure of real marginal costs. We start from a careful modeling of optimal price setting allowing for nonunitary factor substitution, nonneutral technical change, and time‐varying factor utilization rates. This ensures the resulting real marginal cost measures match volatility reductions and level changes witnessed in many U.S. time series. The cost measure comprises conventional countercyclical cost elements plus procyclical (and covarying) utilization rates. Although procyclical elements seem to dominate, the components of real marginal cost components are becoming less cyclical over time. Incorporating this richer driving variable produces more plausible price‐stickiness estimates than otherwise and suggests a more balanced weight of backward‐ and forward‐looking inflation expectations than commonly found. Our results challenge existing views of inflation determinants and have important implications for modeling inflation in New Keynesian models.