论中国财政政策的经常项目跨期均衡效应

长期持续的大规模国际收支顺差表明中国经济存在一定程度的外部非均衡.基于流动性约束建立的跨期动态均衡模型与结构向量自回归模型的实证检验结果显示,财政政策作为中国重要的宏观经济政策,对经常项目跨期均衡具有一定的调控效果,尤其是当汇率政策退出时,财政政策的跨期效应会有所增强,且此时出口退税政策还在一定程度上具有稳定经常项目跨期波动的作用,所以中国应首先优化出口退税政策.此外,利率对经常项目跨期波动的影响比较稳健,表明中国可以通过调整针对流入资本的税收政策来改变资本借贷的实际利率水平,从而有助于实现经常项目跨期均衡.     

财政赤字货币化:通货紧缩视角

政府为进行一定经济活动所采取的融资政策是一个重要的宏观经济问题。在政府赤字和税收既定的条件下,政府融资的不同选择对货币供给的影响是相同的,但对财政政策与货币政策的配合及货币政策的独立性影响则不相同。财政赤字货币化可以作为财政赤字融资的一种选择。我国当前实施的积极财政政策是在保持中央银行货币政策独立性条件下反通货紧缩的一种政策创新。     

我国积极财政政策"紧缩效应"的形成机制及其检验

积极财政政策的扩张性效果依赖经济周期的阶段性,积极财政政策也有可能通过货币需求的利率渠道和汇率渠道等,产生对于实际产出的紧缩影响.本文利用误差修正模型和时变参数模型,通过估计货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,发现我国的财政政策仅在1996年前体现出显著的"紧缩效应",而在1996年后"紧缩效应"逐渐减弱和消失,这说明在我国宏观经济调控中,积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的组合方式和期限结构发挥了比较稳定的政策效果.     

中国财政政策的外部均衡效应:相对效力检验

中国国际收支"双顺差"的长期存在,表明中国经济存在一定程度的外部失衡.基于蒙代尔政策指派理论模型以及协整检验和误差修正模型的实证估计,可以发现中国财政政策对外部均衡的相对调控效力要优于货币政策,因此中国应运用出口退税等财政政策来促进外部均衡的实现,并考虑选择发行超长期债券方式为财政赤字融资,同时还应及时完善其他宏观经济政策,从而实现中国经济长期稳定的协调发展.     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

论国债政策与货币政策的协调配合

国债政策作为财政政策与货币政策协调配合的结合点,客观上存在与货币政策协调配合的必要性。二者的协调配合主要体现在国债规模和结构与货币供应量以及国债基准利率与央行利率调控的协调两方面。本文运用定性与定量相结合的方法探讨基于货币供应量的国债政策与货币政策的协调配合问题。分析结论证明国债发行规模和结构明显影响货币供应量和央行的公开市场业务,因而为提高宏观经济调控效率,必须调整国债政策使之与央行货币政策协调。     

一般均衡中的利率、确定性与最优规则

利率规则理论是以短期利率作为货币政策工具而发展起来的一套新的理论,它体现了货币经济学家在货币政策领域内的新的尝试和努力。在利率规则理论中,货币经济学家试图解决两个问题:利率规则冲击对非政策经济变量的短期影响是什么,以及一个好的利率规则应当具有怎样的性质。利率规则将短期利率作为非政策经济变量的内生反应函数,使得货币经济学家可以在一般均衡模型中探讨这两个问题。然而,由于利率规则从一开始就是出于一种偏好的设定,因此,讨论的结果并不符合稳健性和科学性的要求,这就削弱了理论预言的可靠性。在某种意义上,利率规则理论若想成为一门真正的"科学的艺术",它就必须为内生利率规则寻找到一个坚固的微观基础。本文梳理评述了利率规则理论在经验上和理论上的成就和不足。     

财政赤字与货币供给——来自中国的经验证据(1978-2003)

在探讨我国财政赤字影响货币供给的传导机制的基础上,通过5变量系统检验1978-2003年我国财政赤字与货币供给的关系.实证结果显示,赤字水平、实际GDP、名义利率和通货膨胀率都是货币供给(M1)的决定因素.由于货币供给受包括赤字在内的多种因素的影响而变得不稳定和难以预测,我国反周期性和内生性的货币供给政策的有效性受到影响.同时指出了相应的政策含义     

当代新凯恩斯主义货币经济学的新发展

将垄断竞争和名义刚性假设引入MIU模型,新凯恩斯主义者建立了与AS-IS-LM模型简单线性形式相一致的一般动态均衡模型,实现了基于微观最优行为的动态一般均衡货币理论模型与适用于货币政策分析的线性宏观经济模型的统一,政策分析的重点转向政策目标和工具规则的统一.但是,在政策目标选择,通货膨胀的动态性和政策工具规则设定方面仍未达成共识.     

IS-LM-BP粘性、汇率调整与短期均衡

我国平坦的LM曲线使得人民币名义利率在处于低水平时扩大货币供应量只是刺激了公众手持现金的需求，形成大量社会游资，进入实际经济部门的货币减少，导致物价总水平回升乏力。政府的目标经济增长率的相对下降、结构性改革使公众不确定性增强，预期收入的下降引起货币的“财货”需求上升，交易需求下降，形成恶性循环。陡峭的IS曲线虽从理论上支持了扩张性财政政策，但现有的和潜在的政府债务负担对其运用空间进行了限制。我国陡峭的BP曲线呈现严重粘性，严重制约了现有政策的运用效果。我国GDP中的44％来自于对外经济部门，实际开放程度已经很高，WTO的加入使外部的真实冲击和金融冲击影响着中国内外均衡的实现。汇率调整成为解决我国IS－LM－BP粘性、化解外部冲击和实现短期内外均衡的关键，同时财政政策与货币政策的协调也离不开汇率政策的调整。     

最优财政和货币政策及其福利效应分析

本文建立了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策模型,并以中国经济为研究对象,以福利效应为最优政策的评估标准,研究了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策机制。分析表明:在Ramsey最优均衡下,财政和货币政策共同作用于通货膨胀和产出目标,以严格通货膨胀为目标的最优货币规则会使得政策的福利损失最小,但货币政策在产出目标、通货膨胀目标以及政策福利损失三者上不能同时兼顾;最优财政规则是趋向缩小收支差,从而趋近于福利损失最小。本文同时使用贝叶斯分析,对中国经济政策2005年第一季度至2009年第二季度的福利效应进行了评估,实证分析表明:样本期间政策的无条件福利损失处于波动状态,经济增长增加了家庭部门的条件福利损失,即经济增长导致跨期消费成本增加。     

Stochastic and structural fiscal policy in a monetary stationary economy

In the framework of a monetary asset pricing model which is simple enough to generate closed form formulae for equilibrium price functions the interactions between output, fiscal policy, and asset markets is investigated. With money yielding liquidity services in the exchange process real stock prices are negatively correlated with anticipated (stochastic) fiscal policy changes, while the impact of unanticipated (structural) fiscal policy on the stock market depends qualitatively on the ‘business cycle’ of the economy. It is shown that the monetary character of the economy, more precisely the role of money in the exchange process, is critical for the relationship between fiscal policy and real share prices. Moreover, while contingent fiscal policy measures may be successful in stabilizing the real interest rate on money they are incapable of achieving a stable term structure of the real rate on stocks. In contrast, uncontingently higher public expenditures generally promote the volatility of the real rates on financial assets.     

Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply

Endogenous labor supply is introduced into a stochastic growth model. Money is superneutral, and the real part of the equilibrium can be characterized by two nonlinear trade-off loci between the time devoted to leisure and the mean growth rate that ensure the following: (i) equality among the risk-adjusted rates of return and (ii) equilibrium in the output market. The balanced growth equilibrium is characterized analytically and policy implications derived. Extensive numerical simulations are also conducted. These assess the effects of risk on growth and the impact of fiscal policy on both the mean growth rate and its volatility. Implications for optimal monetary policy are also addressed.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

The government's time discount rate: Choices and consequences in a dynamic framework

This paper considers a closed macroeconomy where the monetary authority pursues an inflation target and policy outcomes are the consequence of a Nash game between fiscal and monetary authorities. The specification of the macroeconomic framework is characterized by nonlinearities which lead to multiple equilibria with differing stability properties. Employing a calibrated model and simulations derived using the Mathematica package, the stability properties of the economy and the likely choice of equilibrium are examined. Within this framework, the dynamic consequences of different time discount rates for the fiscal authority are investigated, both in a world of certainty and also in a world of uncertainty. It is shown that, in a world of certainty, it will be optimal to choose the fiscal authority's time discount rate equal to the market rate of interest. However, depending on the degree of uncertainty in evaluating the time discount rates of consumers and of the fiscal authority, it may be appropriate to bias the fiscal authority's discount rate above or below the expected interest rate.     

Optimal Monetary Policy

Optimal monetary policy maximizes the welfare of a representative agent, given frictions in the economic environment. Constructing a model with two sets of frictions—costly price adjustment by imperfectly competitive firms and costly exchange of wealth for goods—we find optimal monetary policy is governed by two familiar principles. First, the average level of the nominal interest rate should be sufficiently low, as suggested by Milton Friedman, that there should be deflation on average. Yet, the Keynesian frictions imply that the optimal nominal interest rate is positive. Second, as various shocks occur to the real and monetary sectors, the price level should be largely stabilized, as suggested by Irving Fisher, albeit around a deflationary trend path. Since expected inflation is roughly constant through time, the nominal interest rate must therefore vary with the Fisherian determinants of the real interest rate. Although the monetary authority has substantial leverage over real activity in our model economy, it chooses real allocations that closely resemble those which would occur if prices were flexible. In our benchmark model, there is some tendency for the monetary authority to smooth nominal and real interest rates.     

Monetary policy and fiscal limits with no-default

This paper discusses monetary and fiscal policy interactions that stabilize government debt. Two distortions prevail in the model economy: income taxes and liquidity constraints. Possible obstructions to fiscal policy include a ceiling on the equilibrium debt-to-GDP ratio, zero or negative elasticity of tax revenues, and a political intolerance of raising tax rates. At the fiscal limit two mechanisms restore solvency: fiscal inflation, which reduces the real value of nominal debt, and open market operations, which diminish the size of government debt held by the private sector. Three regimes achieve this goal. In all regimes monetary policy is passive. In all regimes a muted tax response to government debt is consistent with equilibrium. The propensity of a fiscal authority to smooth output is found to determine what is an acceptable response (in the form of tax rate changes) to the level of government debt, while monetary policy determines the timing and magnitude of fiscal inflation. Impulse responses show that the inflation and tax hikes needed to offset a permanent shock to transfers are lowest under nominal interest rate pegs. In this regime, most of the reduction in the real value of government debt comes from open market purchases.     

Fiscal Policy and Equitable Growth

This paper continues the study of optimal fiscal policy in a growing economy by exploring a case in which the government simultaneously provides three main categories of expenditures with distortionary tax finance: public production services, public consumption services, and state-contingent redistributive transfers. The paper shows that in a general-equilibrium model with given exogenous fiscal policy, a nonmonotonic relation exists between the suboptimal long-run growth rate in a competitive economy and distortionary tax rates. When fiscal policy is endogenously chosen at a social optimum, the relation between the rate of growth and tax rates is always negative. These two properties suggest that an alternative set of government policy instruments affects the response of private sector investment to fiscal policy. Moreover, the different properties of exogenous and endogenous fiscal policy theoretically account for the difference in the relation between economic growth and fiscal policy in empirical studies.     

Monetary Policy with Parameter Uncertainty in Small-Open Economy

This paper computes optimal robust monetary policy in a new Keynesian small-open economy model with Knightian uncertainty about the degree of price stickiness and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Due to the simple model structure used in the paper, I can derive analytical results for the min–max solution under discretion and assess how a robust optimal Taylor rule must be set in small-open economy. I find that, in an optimal robust discretionary equilibrium, the central bank should assume that the degree of price stickiness and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods take on their highest numerical values. In terms of interest rate setting, if the optimal discretionary robust equilibrium is implemented with a Taylor rule, the policy rate should react to inflation in a less aggressive way than in the case of complete information.