Industrial tail exposure risk and asset price: Evidence from US REITs

In this study, we investigate the impact of industry-based tail dependence risk on the cross-section of stock returns. To this end, we propose a novel tail risk dependence measure (industrial tail exposure risk [ITER]), which captures the tail risk exposure of individual stocks to multiple industries. Using US equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) data from 1993 to 2020, we document that stocks in the highest ITER portfolio outperform stocks in the lowest ITER portfolio by 8.40% per annum. This positive return spread is significant even after controlling for well-known firm characteristics. The return premium of ITER is stronger for small, value, and highly levered stocks and is substantially high during recession periods. Finally, the effects of ITER are cross-sectionally more associated with REITs that have greater degrees of the following factors: bivariate tail exposure risks of major industries, exposure to local industry tail risk, geographical concentration, and ownership of home-biased investors. Overall, our results suggest that REIT investors are indeed averse to tail risks that are associated with various sectors.     

How do institutional investors react to local shocks during a crisis? A test using the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine how institutional investors reacted to geographically dispersed local shocks during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample of real estate investment trusts (REITs) enables us to link two layers of geography: the locations of the assets in which the REITs were invested and the headquarters locations of institutional investors who owned REIT shares. We find that the institutional ownership of firms with an economic interest in the investors’ home markets declined more if those markets were heavily affected by the pandemic. In addition, the ownership responses to the COVID-19 shock were larger in those markets in which REITs had larger portfolio allocations and in markets that were home to the investors. Importantly, we find that nonpassive and short-term investors may have overreacted to the local shocks because their REIT portfolios subsequently underperformed relative to passive and long-term investors. Our study highlights the importance of geography in the formation of investors’ expectations during market crises.     

Institutional common ownership and firm value: Evidence from real estate investment trusts

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about whether and how institutional common ownership (ICO) affects firm behavior. Using a sample of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), which provide significant advantages for isolating a monitoring channel, we find a robust and positive relation between ICO and REIT firm value. The positive relation between ICO and firm value is driven mainly by motivated investors and becomes stronger when we construct our ICO measures using blockholdings. Our difference‐in‐differences analysis, using mergers between institutional investors, suggests a causal relation exists between ICO and firm value. After investigating various channels through which ICO could affect firm behavior, we conclude that asset allocation decisions and performance are the most plausible explanations. Our finding that the monitoring associated with ICO aids managers in their portfolio disposition strategies further supports this conclusion. This enhanced monitoring leads to increased property portfolio returns, as well as more geographic diversification.     

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.     

The vicarious wisdom of crowds: toward a behavioral perspective on investor reactions to acquisition announcements

Although event‐study methodology is invaluable to strategic management research, we argue that the traditional financial economic rationale on which it is based has led scholars to assume away the behavioral mechanisms underlying investor reactions. Building on behavioral theory from management, psychology, and economics, we set out to develop a behavioral perspective on investor reactions to acquisition announcements—one that relaxes the assumption of investors making objective, rational‐deductive calculations. Given the information asymmetry they face, we theorize that investors (1) infer management's perception of an acquisition's synergistic potential from the premium it pays, and (2) draw on additional public information to assess the reliability of that perception. Using a multi‐industry sample of acquisitions by North American firms, we find considerable support for our behavioral framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sources of Risk Spillovers among U.S. REITs: Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity

In this article, we estimate the risk spillovers among 74 U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) using the state‐dependent sensitivity value‐at‐risk approach. This methodology allows for the quantification of the spillover size as a function of a company's financial condition. We show that the size of risk spillovers is more than twice as large when REITs are in financial distress and find evidence for the impact of geographical proximity. Our results provide new insights concerning the relevance of geographical diversification for REITs and have important implications for the investment and risk management decisions of real estate investors, mortgage lenders, home suppliers and policy makers.     

The Wealth Effects of Property Acquisitions: Evidence from Japanese and Singaporean REITs

This article examines the wealth effects of 228 property acquisition announcements made by REITs publicly traded in Singapore and Japan, which are the two largest REIT markets in Asia. Adopting an aggressive growth‐by‐acquisition strategy, the newly listed REITs acquired a number of properties within a short time period. Despite their regular activities, we observe the acquisition announcements are associated with a significantly positive abnormal increase in shareholder wealth averaging 0.38% in a 5‐day window around the event date. Controlling for the method of payment, buyer's acquisition strategy and seller's relationship with the acquiring REIT, the regression results show that the likely sources of economic gains associated with acquisitions are economies of scale and better management by acquiring firms. We also find strong evidence that the market reacts less favorably to acquisitions involving a portfolio of properties as opposed to a single property and weaker evidence that it reacts less favorably to mixed‐use acquisitions. These findings suggest the presence of premiums on transparency and corporate focus.     

Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns

This paper examines the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market microstruc-ture and its relationship to stock returns. When compared with the general stock market, REIT stocks tend to have a lower level of institutional investor participation and are followed by fewer security analysts. In addition, REIT stocks that have a higher percentage of institutional investors or are followed by more security analysts tend to perform better than other REIT stocks. Our results seem to confirm Jensen's ( 1993 , p. 868) proposition that ownership structure (that is, who owns the firm's securities) affects the value of the firm. Our findings also have implications about the well documented phenomenon that the financial performance of Commingled Real Estate Funds (CREFs) is better than that of REITs.     

Can Fund Managers Select Outperforming REITs? Examining Fund Holdings and Trades

Despite at least six empirical studies published since 2000 designed to assess fund managers’ Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)‐selection ability, their skill remains in question. Unlike previous studies, we examine fund holdings and trades of REITs to answer this question. This approach allows us to explicitly account for portfolio rebalancing that alters REIT‐characteristic weights of fund portfolios. Results show that fund managers, after controlling for property type, size and momentum, generated significant positive alpha with their securities‐selection ability. To understand the sources of such ability, we examine whether fund managers who followed certain trading strategies outperformed relative to other managers. The potential trading strategies are based on public information related to geographic concentration, net‐asset‐value‐to‐price ratios, income and appreciation styles and leverage of the underlying REITs. Comparative and regression analyses show that none of the strategies fully explains why fund managers were able to select REITs that outperformed. We surmise that the outperformance mainly derives from the endemic abilities of managers to uniquely process REIT‐specific information and generate private valuation beliefs that lead to profitable investment decisions.     

Entry mode and equity level: A multilevel examination of foreign direct investment ownership structure

Over the last two decades, strategy researchers have sought to understand the ownership structure of firms' foreign direct investments (FDI) as reflected in entry mode and equity level. However, prior FDI research has ignored the interrelated nature of these key FDI decisions. In addition, prior research does not fully account for the fact that individual ownership structure decisions occur within the context of a firm's broader FDI portfolio, and thus reflect a wide and frequently unobserved range of parent firm and host nation effects. Our research seeks to address both of these limitations. Using a rich dataset of 4,459 subsidiaries established by 858 Japanese firms across 38 countries over a 9‐year period, we specify a conditional bivariate, cross‐classified multilevel model of FDI ownership structure. Our model enables the joint estimation of entry mode and equity level, accounts for the portfolio nature of FDI, and compares the relative predictive power of transaction cost‐ and experience‐based explanatory variables across both facets of ownership structure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Dynamics of REIT Pricing Efficiency

We study the dynamics of pricing efficiency in the equity REIT market from 1993 to 2014. We measure pricing efficiency at the firm level using variance ratios calculated from quote midpoints in the TAQ database. We find four main results. First, on average, the market is efficient, with variance ratios close to one. However, in any given year, there is considerable cross‐sectional variation in variance ratios, suggesting at least some firms are priced inefficiently. Second, higher institutional ownership by active institutional investors is related to better pricing efficiency, while passive ownership does not reduce pricing efficiency. Third, REITs that are included in the S&P 500 and S&P 400 are priced more efficiently than other REITs. For the S&P 500 firms, we find evidence that this was purely driven by sample selection, while for S&P 400 firms, we find evidence that it is inclusion in the index that drives efficiency. Finally, we find evidence that firm investment, analyst coverage and debt capital raising activity can influence pricing efficiency.     

How can new ventures command a price premium with innovations in emerging markets?

Successful financing is critical for new ventures' survival and future sustainable growth. With the unique institutional characteristics, it is especially difficult for new ventures in emerging economies to transform innovation capital into favorable investor responses (such as willingness-to-pay, WTP) during the process of initial public offerings (IPOs). Based on the patent records from a unique sample of Chinese firms, we demonstrate that new ventures can successfully leverage innovation for higher WTP in IPOs contingent on the existence of venture capital ownership and reputable underwriter endorsements. These financial intermediates can send inside-out and outside-in signals to market investors to reduce information asymmetry. Our study contributes to research on the valuation of innovations in IPOs. We also provide practical implications to managers and investors of new ventures. We provide implication to managers and investors of new ventures on how to increase the benefits from innovations, which fosters national economic growth and social welfare.     

Ownership strategy of Japanese firms: transactional,institutional, and experience influences

We compare the effects of transactional, institutional, and experience influences on the ownership strategies of Japanese investors. Our theoretical development suggests that the equity position of a foreign investor should increase as the specificity of the assets transferred to the foreign affiliate increases, but a lower equity position should be assumed when the foreign investor requires complementary assets to establish a foreign entry. International experience and a strong institutional environment also should lead to increases in the equity position of the foreign investor. These relationships were tested with data on more than 1000 Japanese investments in nine countries of East and South‐East Asia. The results demonstrate that experience and institutional factors were the most important influences on the ownership position taken in the foreign investment, while transactional factors had a much less important and a more ambiguous role. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Institutional Investors' Preferences for REIT Stocks

This article investigates the determinants of real estate investment trusts (REIT) portfolio investment and institutional REIT ownership using multivariate Tobit regressions. We contend that many institutional investors take larger positions in more liquid assets like REIT stocks, as compared with private real estate equities, because of liquidity considerations. Consistent with this contention, we find that liquidity constraints are significantly related to REIT portfolio investment by institutional investors. We also find that institutional investors have different preferences for REIT stocks than do other investors; they generally prefer larger, more liquid REIT stocks.     

A Comparison of the Recent Performance of Publicly Traded Real Property Portfolios and Common Stock

In this study we compare the returns earned by investments in publicly traded limited partnerships (PTLPs), finite life equity REITs, and traditional equity REITs with those resulting from investing in common stocks (proxied by closed-end mutual funds). Performance comparisons are made using generalized stochastic dominance (GSD). This tool avoids the joint hypothesis problem that arises when an asset pricing model is used as a performance benchmark. The results of the analysis indicate that the performance of the closed-end mutual funds was preferred to that of the individual equity REITs (both traditional and finite life) and PTLP securities by a wide array of risk-averse investors. This result was most pronounced following the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 which severely restricted the tax deductibility of real estate losses. When the equity REITs were combined into portfolios, their performance dominated the mutual funds during the 1980–85 period. Further, the PTLP portfolio returns were preferred to several of the mutual funds even in the post-1985 period. These findings reflect the fact that the securitized real property portfolios studied are not as well diversified as mutual funds. However, the mutual funds remained the dominant investment alternative in the post-1986 period.     

The development of capabilities in new firms

This research explores evidence of corporate capabilities for conducting acquisition and alliance deals in young firms. We hypothesize that investors conjecture about the future based on information about a firm's capabilities. Each successive deal carries intrinsic value, creates experience, generates feedback, and yields information about the firm's underlying capabilities. We evaluate whether stock prices impute expectations that firms will capably pursue particular programs of acquisitions and alliances. The analysis covers how investor responses change across successive deals on the theory that firms with a concentrated program of deals may develop capabilities more intensively than those with programs that involve both acquisitions and alliances. The dataset covers the population of firms that went through an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States between 1988 and 1999. It contains information on all of their post‐IPO acquisitions and alliances, and on how their stock prices changed in response to the announcement of each deal. The results suggest that within the first year after IPO, investors expect firms to execute particular streams of alliances and acquisitions that reflect their unique histories of demonstrated capabilities. We also find evidence that investors cannot fully anticipate deal programs. The findings support a capabilities‐based view of the firm and also show that accurate inference using event‐study methods may require digging deep into the early histories of firms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits nonzero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long-horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This article evaluates, ex post, the out-of-sample gains from diversification when equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification into REITs increases both the Sharpe ratio and the certainty equivalent of wealth for all investment horizons and for both classical and Bayesian (who account for parameter uncertainty) investors. The increases in Sharpe ratios are often statistically significant. However, the out-of-sample average Sharpe ratio and realized expected utility of long-horizon portfolios are frequently lower than that of a one-period portfolio, which casts doubt on the value of time diversification.     

Investor Confidence as a Determinant of China's Urban Housing Market Dynamics

China's urban housing market dynamics suggest that evolving investor confidence may be a relevant demand shifter. Such investors are continually updating their beliefs about the state of the macroeconomy and the policy uncertainty related to national and local housing policies. We build a 35 Chinese city real estate confidence index that varies over time and across cities. This index predicts subsequent house price appreciation and new housing sales. We document evidence of heterogeneous effects of investor confidence depending on a city's demographics and the city's elasticity of housing supply. Our results based on a new household‐level expectations survey bolster the case that investor expectations are an important determinant of real estate price dynamics.     

REIT Dividend Policies and Dividend Announcement Effects During the 2008–2009 Liquidity Crisis

Real estate investment trust (REIT) dividend policies and dividend announcement effects during the 2008–2009 liquidity crisis are examined. Multinomial logit results indicate that REITs with higher market leverage or lower market‐to‐book ratios are more likely to cut dividends, suspend dividends or pay elective stock dividends. These results imply that mitigating going‐concern risk is an important motive for REITs adjusting dividend policies during the crisis and support dividend catering theory where investor demand for dividends impacts corporate dividend policies. Moreover, REITs that cut or suspend dividends experience positive cumulative abnormal returns during the post‐announcement period after controlling for the potential influence from simultaneous funds from operation announcements. The positive market response over the post‐announcement period supports the notion that dividend decisions convey information to investors and is also consistent with the broad catering theory of dividend policy.     

Stacking the deck: the effects of top management backgrounds on investor decisions

Young firms going public are dependent upon the decisions of investors for a successful public offering. Yet convincing investors to invest is not easy, as young firms have limited track records and, thus, face challenges associated with gaining legitimacy in their respective industries. This paper examines ways in which select information about firms undertaking an initial public offering (IPO) can affect investor decisions. Building upon recent research on upper echelons and signaling theory, we propose that the composition of a firm's top management team can signal organizational legitimacy that in turn affects investor decisions. In the context of young firms undertaking an IPO, such signals are critical, especially when objective measures of firm quality are not easily available. We introduce a typology of signals of organizational legitimacy to elaborate on our hypotheses. Analyses of a comprehensive set of data on the career histories of the top management teams of young biotechnology firms show that investor decisions are affected by the extent to which a firm's top management team has employment affiliations with prominent downstream organizations (e.g., pharmaceutical companies), with a diverse range of organizations, and upon the role experience of one key member of the top management team—the Chief Scientific Officer. We assess and find that these effects are not mediated by the prestige of a firm's lead underwriter. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our study for strategy research on upper echelons and organizational legitimacy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.