Demand Uncertainty,Development Timing and Leasehold Land Valuation: Empirical Testing of Real Options in Residential Real Estate Development

This article develops and tests a long‐dated American call option pricing model for valuing development land under leasehold. We analyze and test option values in ten detailed Hong Kong cases involving purchase, holding, converting and developing land. We also test for optimal exercise of long‐dated American calls using processes based on the optimal trigger ratio feature of the perpetual American call option model. Generally, the empirical results confirm presence of a positive and nontrivial option premium (mean +5.274%) in the cases, and that developers appear to delay exercise to the point predicted by the real options model.     

Commercial Office Space: Testing the Implications of Real Options Models with Competitive Interactions

We test the implications of real option pricing models with competitive interactions for commercial real estate development. The competitive nature of a local commercial real estate market relies on a Herfindahl ratio derived from individual developers' shares of total office construction in their market. All else being equal, greater competition among local developers is associated with more building starts. Other variables suggested by the real options pricing model, including the volatility of local lease rates, are also found to be statistically important. In addition, we provide evidence consistent with greater competition attenuating the extent to which increases in volatility delay commercial real estate development.     

Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets

This article derives a closed-form solution for an equilibrium real options exercise model with stochastic revenues and costs for monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly and competitive markets. Our model also allows one option holder to have a greater production capacity than others. Under a monopolistic environment we find that the optimal option exercise strategy in real estate markets is dramatically opposite to that in a financial (warrant) market, indicating the importance of paying attention to the institutional details of the underlying market when analyzing option exercise strategies. Our model can be generalized to the pricing of convertible securities and capital investment decisions involving both stochastic revenues and costs under different types of market structures.     

Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.     

Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

Real Option Pricing and Bounds in Incomplete Markets

This article prices a real option and constructs narrow bounds around the value of real options embedded in capital budgeting decisions by applying the minimax deviations approach to real options in incomplete markets. While it is straightforward to obtain the unique value of a real option with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions, the parameters of risk aversion are often subject to misspecification and raise concerns for practical uses. Recognizing that investors allow deviation from parameter values related to a benchmark pricing kernel, we derive narrow bounds on a real option price. Comparison with the approaches in the literature clarifies advantages of the minimax bounds: simple, consistent, and efficient.     

商业地产投资的实物期权特性及应用框架研究

商业地产开发投资中存在投资的不可逆性、外部环境的不确定性和决策的灵活性,因而具有实物期权特性。从确定要解决的问题、分析不确定性的来源、鉴别关键的不确定性因素、识别实物期权类型、构建期权定价模型、计算项目价值、检查计算结果和重新设计8个方面,构建了商业地产投资决策的实物期权分析框架。     

Cancellation Strategies in Commercial Real Estate Leasing

In a contractionary corporate environment, lease cancellation strategy becomes an important component of corporate real estate leasing decisions. This paper presents a leasing model in which less well-informed lessors offer leases with alternative lease cancellation options. The model demonstrates that a tenant's choice of cancellation option reveals his private information with respect to the likelihood of option exercise. Tenants who select a lease with a downsizing option are more likely to exercise the option. Given the higher likelihood of option exercise, the model suggests that the downsizing option will be priced higher. We examine a sample of 311 leases, and consistent with the model's prediction, we find that on average leases with a downsizing option have significantly higher contract rent. However, termination and sublet options are not associated with higher rent. The evidence suggests that market uncertainty, private information and adverse selection affect the pricing of alternative cancellation options and the choice of cancellation option.     

Redevelopment of Real Assets

Real assets can be redeveloped repeatedly. Unlike financial assets, the option to redevelop real assets can be exercised infinitely often. For a depreciating real asset, the optimal exercise policy and resulting market values are calculated analytically and compared to the standard solution with at most one redevelopment. Relative to the standard solution, redevelopment is on average more frequent and less extensive, and the resulting market values are greater.     

Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options

Real estate development from raw land to completed structures is a multistage process. Given the current view of development as the exercise of a real option, the question arises whether development should be modeled as a compound option. This paper tests the validity of the compound option characterization by determining whether builders start units for which they have permits and then complete units started consistent with the predictions of the real options model. To do so, I first identify a reduced form relationship between permits and starts and then between starts and completions. The parameters of this relationship indicate how well permits proxy for starts and starts for completions. Then, I determine whether controlling for this structural relationship, new information, and uncertainty in returns affect permit exercise and completion rates, as in the exercise of real options. I find that current and previous quarter permits forecast current single-family starts, while multifamily starts require more quarterly lags of permits. More than one and two year's worth of lagged starts numbers are needed to estimate current quarter completions for single- and multifamilys buildings, respectively. The principal result is that once building permits have been obtained, the development process proceeds to completion. While there is no evidence that completion is the exercise of an option embedded in a start, some aspects of permits are consistent with builders treating them as an option for starts. However, even if they do, given permits obtained, it takes large changes in market conditions to affect small changes in starts.     

经理人股票期权价值的理论及应用

股票期权激励的研究和实践中广泛应用布莱克——斯科尔斯模型进行股票期权的公允价值计价,然而对经理人而言的股票期权价值还要考虑经理人的风险偏好、财富的多元化程度等因素的影响。经理人期权价值不等于公司期权成本的基本理论可以解决及解释在股票期权实践中的一些关键性问题,如期权激励有效性的衡量、激励期权的风险溢价、最优行权价的确定、行权时间的确定。该理论的应用对我国上市公司股权激励的实施也有重要启示。     

Real options in equity partnerships

We examine factors influencing the decision to acquire additional equity in partner firms in research‐intensive industries. This decision involves choosing between flexibility and commitment. Option theory motivates hypotheses regarding the effects of uncertainty, valuation of developing technologies, and the threat of preemptive rivalry. Our main hypothesis is that the resolution of uncertainty for high‐value technologies motivates commitment decisions. We also argue that when the underlying growth option is at risk of preemption by rivals, greater uncertainty encourages commitment. An event history model tests these hypotheses using data from minority investments in the biotechnology industry. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy

The paper examines the risk-and-return characteristics of a popular development strategy, the presale system (or sale before completion), used in many Asian cities. We model a presale decision in a real-options framework and suggest that the use of presale is primarily for a risk-sharing purpose. That is, developers can reduce bankruptcy and marketing risks by selling (or leasing) their projects before their completion dates. Our model also indicates that, because of the presale system, there is a barrier for new developers to enter into a market, which helps explain the anecdotal observation that most real estate markets in Asian cities are oligopolistic in nature and dominated by large developers.     

Coordination in a retailer-led supply chain through option contract

This paper develops a model to study channel coordination and risk sharing in a retailer-led supply chain. Such chains are characterized by a dominant retailer who aims to coordinate the upstream production quantity. We investigate a coordinating contract based on an option with two parameters. An option price is paid by the retailer for each additional unit of product reserved beyond the initial order. An exercise price serves as the unit purchasing price when the retailer sets a second order if realized demand is more than the initial order. A successful coordination needs two conditions. One condition is to maintain a negative correlation between exercise price and option price. Particularly, we draw the functional form. The other is that the firm commitment must be lower than the optimal production quantity in a centralized system. In a risk sharing mechanism, we prove that such a contract brings benefit to each party.     

Valuation of Learning Options in Software Development Under Private and Market Risk

Commercial software development is an inherently uncertain activity. Private risk is high, schedule and cost overruns are common, and market success is elusive. Such circumstances call for a disciplined project evaluation approach. This paper addresses the use of market and earned value management data in assessing the economic value of commercial software development projects that are simultaneously subject to schedule, development cost, and market risk. The assessment is based on real options analysis, a financial valuation technique that can tackle dynamic investment decisions under uncertainty. The paper demonstrates the application of real options analysis to a development scenario that consists of two consecutive stages: a mandatory prototyping stage and an optional full-development stage. The full-development stage is undertaken only if the prototype is successful and the market outlook is sufficiently positive at the end of the prototyping stage, thus giving the full-development stage the flavor of an option. The project's staged design increases its value. Real options analyses capture the extra value due to optionality.     

A two-stage model of research and development with endogenous second-mover advantages

This paper describes a simple two-stage model of research and development, in which the ‘winner’ of the research stage has the option of moving first in the development stage. Some unexpected results emerge: in equilibrium, the leader in the development stage invests less than each follower, and is consequently least likely to collect the patent. Moreover, the leader receives a lower expected payoff than each of the followers. Thus there are endogenous second-mover advantages. Using a game of timing (in which the identity of the Stackelberg leader is determined) to link the two stages, I find that firms face quite different incentives in the research stage. Although the leader invests less than each follower in the research stage as well, the leader enjoys higher expected revenue from the complete (two-stage) game than does each follower. The equilibrium is inefficient because there is a lag between the time at which research is completed and the time at which development is begun, and because aggregate investment is inefficiently (asymmetrically) distributed across firms.     

Brokerage commissions and margin requirements: With special reference to Japan

In Japan, brokerage commissions and margin requirements are currently regulated by the Ministry of Finance. However, commissions may soon be deregulated. This paper examines several economic factors which determine commissions and margins in a deregulated environment. The analysis is motivated by the observations that for Japan's securities companies, 1) brokerage commissions constitute a large component of their revenues; 2) margin transactions account for a significant proportion of their trading volume; 3) their gross income exhibits a great deal of volatility; 4) income tax is one of their two largest expenses; and 5) they face a significant tax asymmetry.While executing an unmargined long transaction for a customer is a riskless activity, executing either a margined long or a short transaction exposes the firm to some risk and possibly negative profits. While the commission charged by a brokerage firm for executing a riskless (unmargined) long transaction is simply equal to the marginal cost of producing the firm's total number of transactions, it is demonstrated that the gross commission charged for executing either a margined long or a short transaction includes two other components. The first additional component is a risk/tax premium that is determined by the brokerage firm's tax rate and degree of tax asymmetry, the security's volatility, and the customer's margin deposit. The second additional component is the premium required for the implicit put option associated with a margined long transaction, or for the implicit call option associated with a short transaction. The option falls in-the-money if the security's price changes significantly, so that it is optimal for the customer to default on his contract with the brokerage firm.The determinants of the customer's optimal margin, for both long and short transactions, are also examined. The benefit to the customer of depositing a higher margin is that his commission cost declines. For example, with short transactions a higher margin increases the exercise price of the implicit call option, causing both the risk/tax premium and the implicit option premium to decline. However, a higher margin may increase the customer's opportunity cost of capital. Consequently, the optimal margin increases with the firm's tax rate and degree of tax asymmetry, and decreases with the customer's opportunity cost of capital. An increase in the security's volatility has an ambiguous impact on the optimal margin.The authors are from York University, Canada and International University of Japan, respectively. Part of this paper was written while the first author was on leave at Kyoto University, Japan. We acknowledge helpful comments by Richard Arnott, Lawrence Harris, Hiromitsu Ishi, Eliakim Katz, Johannes Raaballe and Lim Kian Guan (the editor).     

Cycle Time in Packaged Software Firms

Reduction of cycle time (i.e., time to market) is a fundamental competitive strategy in many industries. With the current proliferation of personal computer (PC) technology, software developers face intense competition. However, unlike their counterparts in other consumer goods markets, product development managers in the software industry appear to be less concerned with (or even aware of) cycle time than they are with other competitive variables. To explore the role of cycle-time reduction in the process of developing software packages, Erran Carmel conducted a study of 15 software package companies in the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan area. The survey results indicate that software package developers are generally unaware of cycle-time reduction as a management concept. Instead, software developers tend to focus on rapid development, with an emphasis on “crunch” periods of intense effort aimed at meeting a deadline. During these periods of peak activity, 87% of the developers in core teams worked more than 56 hours per week and 47% worked more than 71 hours per week. In terms of the organizational variables necessary for cycle-time reduction, all of the survey respondents point to the importance of a small, cohesive, core development team, similar to a cross-functional team. Members of the core team are entrepreneurial and share a common vision of the product's design, use, and long-term direction. As for the development variables associated with cycle-time reduction, the software companies in the survey typically do not use process models or risk analysis techniques. Similarly, they devote scant resources to automated tools. For the majority of the firms in the survey, annual investment in automated software development tools is less than $1,000 per developer. On the other hand, reuse (as embodied in object-oriented design and development) and incremental innovation are important to all of the sample firms. Although quality assurance (QA) activities are not addressed in the innovation literature, QA is a significant cycle-time component in software development. As demonstrated by the industry practice of releasing products with long lists of known defects, the software product category clearly has quality problems. With the current boom in new users, pressure will grow for improved quality. To remain competitive, software developers need to determine how they can better integrate QA activities into the development process while reducing cycle time.     

基于波动率指数的期权对冲策略研究

波动率指数反映了期权投资者对未来市场波动性的预期,被用作衡量市场风险的重要依据。试图应用波动率指数来构建一种风险收益特性类似于债券的期权投资策略,即寻找市场中隐含波动率较相应的波动率指数高估或低估的期权品种并进行建仓,再用标的现货使组合保持delta中性。最后采用香港恒生指数期权数据进行了实证分析,结果显示该策略具有一定的实用价值,对期权投资具有一定的参考意义。     

A Review of: “STATISTICS OF EXTREMES” By Emil J. Gumbel Columbia University Press New York, 1958 375 pp. $15.00

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.