The many dimensions of historic preservation value: national and local designation,internal and external policy effects

This analysis examines the internal and external policy effects of national and local register programmes for historic preservation. Robust hedonic pricing models are crucial to informing policy proposals and understanding how property markets relate to urban heritage. Estimating a repeat-sales hedonic model with neighbourhood trends and spatial mixed models, novel to this literature, offers a marked improvement in terms of jointly identifying internal and external policy effects, comparing national and local designations, separating policy from heritage effects and estimating models robust to spatial dependence and trends in hedonic prices. Historic designation variables, while often individually insignificant in the model, are always jointly significant in explaining varying appreciation rates. Local districts exhibit no consistent price impacts across the models. Being located inside a national district confers a price premium that increases over time in the preferred model specification, while prices fall in national districts’ buffers after designation. The sensitivity of results to model specification raises questions about alternative approaches to spatial dependence in the data in the urban historic preservation context. Evidence of the influence of historic district designation on property turnover and renovation investments is also examined.     

自然资源禀赋与经济发展的悖论——发展中国家经济现状成因及发展方向的探讨

自然资源丰裕国家与其不良经济发展现状的相悖现象由来已久,特别是现今的许多发展中国家都拥有着相当丰富的自然资源。贸易模式和人力资本投资是悖论产生的直接和间接原因,更进一步,良好的政策制定和政治性推动机制在发展中国家经济发展之初尤为重要。     

中国渔业保险现状分析和发展模式探索

近三十年的实践,中国渔业保险取得了一定成绩,但也存在不少问题。从国内最新研究成果来看,政策性渔业保险是发展主要趋势,渔业保险需“政府和市场”双驱动,在中国渔业保险面临诸多问题与挑战情况下,需要根据中国渔业保险区域性特征与经验,总结借鉴国际经验,设计中国渔业保险的发展模式。中国当前渔业保险法律基础有待进一步完善,渔业保险管理体制有待进～步理顺,渔业保险政策性扶持有待进一步加强,渔业保险市场均衡水平有待进一步提高,渔业保险发展模式的全国统筹的顶层设计有待探索。从而需要,重视法律制度的完善,发挥法律保障作用;重视国家财税制度的加强,发挥政策引导作用;重视保险模式框架设计,发挥全国统筹规划作用。     

长江经济带水足迹与经济高质量发展的脱钩效应

基于2009—2018年长江经济带11个省市水足迹的面板数据,运用Tapio脱钩弹性系数模型研究水足迹与经济高质量发展之间的脱钩效应,利用STIRPAT模型研究水足迹强度的驱动因素。研究结果表明:长江经济带水足迹总量在2016年出现拐点后逐年下降,而经济高质量发展水平整体处于稳步上升状态,二者整体上呈现弱脱钩趋势。其中,长江下游省市基本实现强脱钩,中上游省市从弱相关性向强相关转变。     

经济增长、区域用水与空间溢出——基于空间面板STIRPAT模型的实证检验

为探究区域用水的空间特征及经济增长与区域用水的作用机制,构建空间面板STIRPAT模型,对全国以及东、中、西地区水资源利用与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:我国水资源利用与经济增长存在较强的空间相关性,二者存在多种形态的EKC曲线关系;全国层面二者呈现为倒"N"型曲线关系,拐点出现在人均GDP 7 358.79元和60 668.53元,除少数东部地区外,大多数省区处于下降前的爬坡阶段;东部和中部地区二者分别近似地满足单调递减和递增的关系;西部地区二者关系呈现为倒"N"型形态,对应的人均GDP拐点分别为521.52元和35 225.87元,结合全国层面的测算结果,虽然短期内西部地区用水量会出现下降,但是经济发展与用水需求增长这一长期存在的"两难"困境并没有得到缓解。此外,不考虑空间自相关性的传统面板计量模型估计出的结果不存在EKC拐点,说明遗漏区域用水的空间自相关性会导致我国水资源利用峰值对应的人均GDP产生较大的偏误。     

林业经济发展模式的内涵与分类

本文力求从不同方向和角度对林业经济发展模式作系统的分类,比较不同林业经济发展模式的异同,试图探索不同的林业经济发展模式对林业经济发展的不同影响,对林业经济发展模式的战略制定提供借鉴作用。     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

国土空间规划管制、地方政府竞争与区域经济发展——来自湖北省县（市、区）域的经验研究

研究目的:实证检验国土空间规划管制对区域经济发展的影响及其作用机制。研究方法:在对国土空间规划管制影响区域经济发展机理分析的基础上,提出本文的研究假说,并基于湖北省82个县(市、区)域单元2002—2015年的统计数据,运用中介效应模型加以检验。研究结果:国土空间被管制强度越高的区域,其地方政府可以运作的土地要素就越少,则该地区地方政府在发展区域经济竞赛中的竞争力就越弱,进而其经济发展水平就相应较低,与国土空间被管制强度较弱区域的经济发展差距逐渐拉大。研究结论:在中国把国土空间规划上升为国家战略的时代背景下,为协调区域经济的均衡发展,应建立起管制弱化区域和管制强化区域之间的横向财政转移支付机制和土地发展权交易市场,使不同区域均能享受到国土空间优化带来的福利提升。     

经济增长、碳交易与环境污染:基于省级空间面板数据的证据

基于2003—2014年中国31个省级行政区域的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型(SDM)和空间自回归模型(SAR),实证分析了碳排放权交易、经济增长与环境污染的关系。研究结果发现:各地区的环境污染存在显著的空间相关性;经济增长对环境污染的影响为"N"型效应,预示着经济增长并不能解决环境问题,还需要从其他方面加以应对。碳排放交易市场的建立有利于环境保护,降低环境污染;此外,因单纯为了引资,对环保要求的门槛过低,外商直接投资加重了环境污染;资本密集程度越高,环境污染越低;相对于第三产业,第二产业规模越大,环境污染越低。     

红松落叶松不同带状混交比例造林经济效益的研究

辽宁省森林经营研究所开展红松、落叶松不同带状混交比例造林经济效益差异课题研究。试验设五种不同带状混交比例类型,即Ⅰ类混交类型为3红∶1落;Ⅱ混交类型为5红∶3落;Ⅲ混交类型为4红∶3落;Ⅳ混交类型为5红∶1落;Ⅴ混交类型为2红∶1落。通过对各类型林分的调查与分析,得出了试验初步结论。红松与落叶松的混交林,通过对落叶松进行渐进式地强度不同的抚育间伐,能很大程度地提高红松的结实率和产量,大幅度地提高该混交类型林分的总产值。     

The environmental,social and economic effects of recent technological changes in sugarcane on the State of São Paulo,Brazil

From 2007 to 2017, the Agro‐Environmental Protocol of the Sugar and Energy Sector was in force, an agreement between sugarcane mill owners and the State Government of São Paulo, Brazil, proposing to eliminate sugarcane burning as a method to facilitate the harvest. Simultaneously, the sugarcane harvest was becoming widely mechanized while, under the interests of capital accumulation, the mills were entering the information and communication technology era and providing the agricultural processes with more precise and immediate management and technological controls, similar to those implemented in the mills' administrative and industrial operations in the 1990s. Short‐term factors, including environmental factors, favoured sugarcane technological changes. As a result, there was a mass layoff of rural workers and an increasing number of people/workers in agricultural mechanization, transportation and maintenance of machinery and administrative as well. The whole process highlighted the differences between mills, resulting in small and medium sugarcane farmers and mills to become the most impacted, in operational and financial terms, by the accelerating mechanization of the sugarcane industry as a whole.     

The Association of Natural,Social and Economic Factors with Bird Species Richness in Rural England

At a global level, increasing emphasis on sustainable development highlights the importance of maintaining and enhancing biodiversity. Within the European Union, agricultural reforms will have a considerable influence on the links between biodiversity, agriculture and rural communities over the next 10–20 years. An understanding of the associations between biodiversity and the rural economy is important for the development of policies to promote environmentally sustainable economic and social well‐being. However, investigations of this type are frequently hindered by the different ways in which data in the natural and social sciences are collected. In this paper, we develop an innovative approach to combine data using a common spatial unit. We illustrate the application of this approach by examining associations between bird species richness, environmental and socio‐economic variables. Our results show how the statistical relationship between biodiversity and environmental factors is strengthened and contextualised by prevailing socio‐economic conditions. This example highlights the additional insights that can be gained from such an integrative approach, especially in terms of the questions it raises about the inter‐relationships between the social, physical and ecological dynamics of rural environments.     

EU‐wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm‐type Detail

In this paper we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform using the CAPRI model. CAPRI captures the farm heterogeneity across the EU and it allows to depict the implementation of the greening measures in high detail while integrating the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, crops (fallow land and pulses) and Member States may be affected more significantly. The CAP greening will lead simultaneously to a small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts (GHG emissions, N surplus, ammonia emissions, soil erosion, and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices) of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, the environmental effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity‐friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening.