中国农产品贸易：最近20年的变化

中国经济正在不断地走向国际化 ,并在国际经济中扮演越来越重要的角色 ;中国农业贸易也列身于这种成长演变之中 ,并且已经成为世界农产品贸易大国。中国农产品生产、贸易和消费的状况对世界农产品贸易格局和市场状况有着重要的影响。本文主要利用最近 2 0年的中国农产品贸易数据来分析中国农产品贸易 ① 的变化 ,以期反映中国农产品贸易演变的主要结果 ,从而有助于判断中国农产品贸易的发展趋向。汇率、关税、补贴等与农产品贸易相关的政策、体制以及贸易组织方面的变化也应当是农产品贸易变化的重要组成部分 ,但限于本文的目标和范围 ,这里…     

“广东粮”重返舞台

<正>许家印千亿掘金粮油、乳业、畜牧市场,打造农业全产业链的重磅新闻轰动业界。目前中国农产品市场缺少民族品牌,世界农业范畴更鲜有中国农业品牌的身影,是不争的事实,当前,世界农产品贸易被"ABCD"四大国际粮商垄断,即ADM、邦吉、嘉吉和路易达孚控制了全世界80%的农产品贸易。近年来,我国的粮油更是大量依靠进口。2008年后,中国从粮食净出口国变为粮食净进口国。2012年成为世界第二大大米进口国。     

中国与南美国家农产品贸易关系的实证研究——以巴西、阿根廷、智利为例

南美各国农业资源禀赋条件极其优越,大豆等资源密集型产品生产极具优势。本文以巴西、阿根廷、智利为代表的分析表明,中国与南美各国的农产品贸易具有产业内贸易程度低、贸易的产品集中度高、比较优势产品贸易增长潜力巨大的特点。虽然南美各国农产品对中国的出口规模巨大、增长迅猛,但由于与各国的贸易符合“两种资源、两个市场”战略,所以中国应采取加快FTA进程等措施来促进贸易发展,并实现增加贸易获益目标。     

统筹两个市场两种资源 确保农业产业安全

过去30多年中,中国在有效利用农业两个市场和两种资源方面取得了显著成效,引进了十几万份动植物种质资源和一大批先进适用农业生产技术,吸引了大量的国外资本投入,农产品贸易快速发展增加了农产品有效供给、促进了农民增收。但是,部分农产品进口的快速增长和外资对特定产业的过度进入给中国农业带了挑战:新增农产品需求市场被过度挤占,农产品趋势价格受到明显抑制和打压,跨国资本大量进入特定产业对中国民间中小资本形成了挤出效应,部分产业的控制权和部分农产品的定价话语权受到削弱,国际农产品市场波动向国内市场快速传导加剧了国内农产品供需和价格的不稳定。维护中国农业产业安全,关键是要在坚持开放中加强对农业利用两个市场和两种资源的统筹。     

中非农产品贸易的结构与特征

近年来,中非农产品贸易增长迅速,2004年,中国对非洲农产品贸易从净出口变为净进口,并且净进口额还在扩大。对中非农产品贸易的产业贸易特征、比较优势特征、互补与互竞特征的分析显示,中非农产品贸易具有明显的互补性,双边合作潜力巨大。未来中非农产品贸易和农业合作,应按照比较优势的原则展开,以获得对外开放和贸易自由化的潜在利益和有利影响。     

中国农产品贸易参与区域经济一体化的战略选择

作为影响农业问题的一个重要方面,农产品贸易对中国农业的发展作用毋庸置疑。本文主要通过对发达经济体的农产品战略选择进行分析,并归纳了中国农产品参与区域经济一体化的特点,对未来中国农产品贸易自由化可能遇到的风险进行了分析,从而提出了中国农产品贸易参与区域经济一体化战略的选择。     

中-巴农产品贸易及巴西农产品在中国市场竞争力研究

本文运用相对贸易优势指数、贸易互补性指数、产业内贸易指数分析了中国和巴西农产品贸易的特征，并通过市场占有率和排名、贸易强度指数、贸易相似度指数对巴西农产品在中国市场的表现及竞争状况进行了分析。研究表明：巴西农产品相对贸易优势明显，中巴农产品贸易互补性强，两国农产品贸易以产业间贸易为主。文章最后对中国与巴西未来的农业合作提出了相应的对策建议。     

不公平的世界农产品贸易体系与中国农业政策的改革调整

中国加入世贸组织前后，人们对中国农产品的国际竞争力进行了各种分析，得出了很多结论。这些结论大都是以现存的世界农产品贸易体系为既定前提而做出的。尽管乌拉圭回合以来世界农产品贸易体系的扭曲有所改善，但是，现存的世界农产品贸易体系仍然远无公平可言，世界农产品市场仍然是高度扭曲的。同大部分仍然实行高支持、高补贴和高关税政策的WTO成员尤其是发达成员相比较，中国的农业补贴程度很低，如果将农业税费考虑在内的话甚至为负值，而农产品市场开放程度很高，处于明显不利地位。新一轮WTO农业谈判进展艰难，前景难料。在此背景下，中国应当在两个方面做出积极的努力，以尽可能改善目前的不利竞争环境：一是在新一轮WTO农业谈判的框架下积极推进贸易自由化的进程，二是加快推进一些重要的国内政策调整和改革的步伐，包括减免与农产品有关的生产性和流通性税费等。     

加入WTO对我国农产品国际竞争力的影响及对策

ＷＴＯ农业协议的签署,为建立一个公平的、以市场为导向的农产品贸易体制提供了一个基本框架, 已经并且将继续对世界农产品贸易产生重要影响。根据ＷＴＯ农业协议,农产品贸易规则的核心是改善农产品的市场准入条件和竞争环境,推进农产品贸易的 自由化。我国有望在年底加入ＷＴＯ。ＷＴＯ框架下,农产品贸易规则将对我国农产品的国际竞争力产生深刻的影响,并将给我国的农产品贸易和农业发展带来 巨大的机遇和挑战。加入ＷＴＯ后,我国农业能否趋利避害,关键在于从现在起能否充分发挥比较优势,从根本上提升我国农产品的国际竞争力。 一…     

提高我国农产品国际竞争力和创新贸易方式浅析

加入WTO后,对中国农业的影响举世瞩目,一位领导同志说,“我最担心的就是农业”。本文就加入WTO后农产品市场提高国际竞争力和创新农产品市场贸易手段方面做一粗浅分析。     

Economic development, institutional change, and the political economy of agricultural protection An econometric study of Belgium since the 19th century

This empirical study uses 100 years of annual data on 11 agricultural commodities from Belgium to measure the impact of structural changes coinciding with economic development and changes in political institutions on agricultural protection. The analysis shows that changes in agricultural protection are caused by a combination of factors. Governments have increased protection and support to farmers when world market prices for their commodities fell, and vice versa, offsetting market effects on producer incomes. Other economic determinants were the share of the commodities in total consumer expenditures (negative effect) and in total output of the economy (positive effect). With Belgium a small economy, there was no impact of the trade position. Changes in political institutions have affected agricultural protection. Democratic reforms which induced a significant shift in the political balance towards agricultural interests, such as the introduction of the one‐man‐one‐vote system, led to an increase in agricultural protection. The integration of Belgian agricultural policies in the Common Agricultural Policy in 1968 coincided with an increase in protection, ceteris paribus. Both institutional factors, related to changes in access to and information about the decision‐making at the EU level, and structural changes in the agricultural and food economy may explain this effect.     

Agricultural trade and poverty in Chile: a spatial analysis of product tradability

Many questions have arisen about the relationship between international agricultural trade and poverty in developing countries. This article explores these questions by analyzing local agricultural tradability indices, which measure the degree to which commodities produced in a particular region are traded internationally. Data are examined for Chile, a middle‐income country with a history of international agricultural trade over the last decades. Empirical results indicate that a higher agricultural tradability index is associated with lower poverty rates across Chilean comunas.     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China's agricultural trade patterns

This paper examines the composition of China's international trade from 1980 to 1997, with a focus on agriculture and a view towards understanding agriculture's changing trade structure relative to other sectors. We analyse the time series behaviour of individually traded goods at the Standard Industrial Trade Classification three-digit level, categorised into three groups: agricultural commodities, 'other' primary commodities and manufactures. We find that China's agricultural trade has expanded along comparative advantage lines in only a very modest way, suggesting that World Trade Organization membership will have a large impact on China's agricultural trade patterns.     

Agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles

This article investigates agricultural price transmission during price bubbles. The empirical approach concerns the horizontal transmission of cereal prices both across different market places and across different commodities. The trade policy intervention put forward to mitigate the impact of price exuberance is considered. The analysis is performed using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data over years 2006–2010, a period of generalized turbulence of agricultural markets. Firstly, the properties of price time series are explored; then, interdependence across prices is specified and estimated by adopting appropriate cointegration techniques. Results suggest that the bubble had only a slight impact on the price spread and the temporary trade‐policy measure, when effective, has limited this impact.     

Resource supplies and changing world agricultural comparative advantage

This paper advances consideration of the Heckscher–Ohlin (H-O) theory of comparative advantage to agriculture in a dynamic setting. The dynamic relationship among trade flows, resource supplies, and factor contents is studied. The view that special circumstances in the agricultural sector render the H-O theory inapplicable as a guide to agricultural trade is challenged. Consistent with the H-O theory, the results suggest that changing world patterns of resource abundance are an important explanation of the evolving structure of world trade in agriculture commodities.     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

The costs of global tariff barriers on wool products: 1997–2005

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations commits World Trade Organization (WTO) members to improving market access for both agricultural and nonagricultural goods. Tariff barriers on wool products represent a small but important subset of these negotiations. To inform the debate on the round, we analyze the distortionary effects of recent (1997–2005) tariff barriers on wool products using a model that applies a comprehensive analytical approach with regard to the production, trade, and consumption of wool products. We also account for any indirect effects of wool tariff barriers on the nonwool economy by incorporating the production, trade, and consumption of nonwool products, that is, the framework is a comparative‐static global general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the world wool market. Changes in wool tariffs over 1997–2005 lead to positive welfare effects for most regions; Italy, China, and the UK are estimated to have gained the most from the changes. The results indicate that the nature of recent wool tariffs severely distort the size of wool industries in different regions. The changes in the output of wool commodities are extreme reflecting the discriminatory nature of the tariffs.     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

Spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics

The paper considers an industry transforming primary commodities (farm products) into processed commodities (food products). It focuses on the allocation of embedded characteristics (carbohydrate, protein, etc.) both across space and among commodities. The approach generates a spatial competitive market equilibrium of production, consumption, transformation, and trade for both primary and processed commodities, along with the spatial distribution of shadow prices for the product characteristics. The model provides a basis for analyzing the allocation and pricing of agricultural products, food products, and characteristics in spatial markets. The empirical usefulness of the model is illustrated in the context of regional resource allocation in the U.S. dairy sector.