The role of cash flows and accruals in explaining security returns: evidence for the UK

The assessment of earnings usefulness in returns studies has been at the forefront of accounting research since the seminal work of Ball and Brown (1968). Recently, regulatory bodies worldwide have paid increased attention to cash flow reporting. Empirical research provides evidence that earnings information dominates cash flows in market-based accounting research. This study extends the growing empirical literature on the association of earnings and cash flows with security returns. We hypothesize that the association of cash flows with security returns improves (i) the smaller the absolute magnitude of aggregate accruals, (ii) the longer the measurement interval and (iii) the shorter the firm's operating cycle. The dataset consists of all UK firms included in the Global vantage database for the period 1984–1992. This study provides evidence that cash flows play a more important role in the marketplace when the operating cycle, magnitude of accruals and the measurement interval are taken into consideration. Moreover, results indicate that cash flows have more information content than earnings in explaining security returns.     

The Valuation-relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows: an International Perspective

We investigate which variable, earnings or cash flows, provides greater information for equity valuation within the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and Japan. We regress returns on earnings and cash flow metrics. We generally find earnings developed in three Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised in public markets and reporting rules are unencumbered by taxation requirements—to have greater explanatory power for stock returns than cash flow metrics. Conversely, in two non-Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised from private sources—earnings are generally not superior to cash flows for equity valuation, except in Japan, non-consolidated sample. While sensitivity analyses generally support the conclusions of our primary tests, in some of the additional analyses, earnings were superior to cash flows for samples from all countries. As expected, in all countries earnings have incremental information content over cash flows in explaining returns. Collectively, our findings provide two contributions. First, we generalize the findings of prior US research by showing that earnings are more important than cash flows for equity valuation in other Anglo-Saxon countries. Second and more importantly, our findings demonstrate that the superiority of earnings over cash flows is not universal. Rather, it depends on the national reporting regime and attendant institutional factors.     

The measurement of the economic performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business Sector 1946–1990: an application of the shareholder value creation concept

This paper is based upon a juxtaposition of the cash flow-market value performance (alias SVC performance) and historic cost accounting (HC) performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector 1946–90. It has two principal objectives: 1. To determine whether, judged on return and variability dimensions, the HC accounting model is an operationally acceptable surrogate for a multiperiod market-based accounting model. 2. To analyse the consequences of HC income-based distributions, i.e., corporate tax, interest and dividend payments based on conventionally-measured corporate income. Three principal conclusions are drawn: i. Notwithstanding their common cash flow component, HC performance indices are not reliable surrogates for SVC performance criteria. The former apparently do not accurately capture changes in corporate valuation and generally understate the variability of market-based returns. ii. The multiperiod HC income of a going concern characteristically overstates its coterminous multiperiod cash flows to a considerable degree. Contrary to common supposition, the former does not therefore constitute a ‘normalized’ or ‘smoothed’ version of a firm's ‘primitive’ cash flows in the sense that the cumulative (multiperiod) values of the two measures tend to converge. iii. As a consequence of ii, HC income and its near relation, taxable earnings, are dubious bases for measuring interest-paying, tax-paying and dividend-paying capacities. Corporate income-distribution decisions based on HC accruals-based profit measures frequently trigger external financing which may cause shareholder wealth losses and wealth transfers from shareholders to lenders. However, ‘fiscal drag’ appears to be the most serious consequence of HC accruals-based income distribution decisions.     

The Predictive Value of Earnings, Cash flows and Accruals in the Period Surrounding the Asian Financial Crisis: Evidence from Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

This paper examines the predictive value of earnings, operating cash flows and accruals in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand for the period 1994–2001. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the predictive power of the accounting performance measures. We regress future cash flows and future excess returns on earnings (or cash flows and accruals) for the periods 1994–1996 (pre‐crisis period), 1997–1998 (crisis period) and 1999–2001 (post‐crisis period). Our findings indicate that the accounting measures have explanatory power for 1‐year ahead cash flows. Our analyses of 1‐year ahead excess returns indicate that investors may have undervalued the accounting measures in the pre‐ and post‐crisis periods, and overvalued the measures during the crisis period.     

International Differences in GAAP and the Pricing of Earnings

This study investigates the information content of two alternative accounting earnings measures constructed under U.K. and U.S. GAAP. The analysis is based on the 20-F SEC filings by U.K. domiciled companies having ADRs listed in the U.S. The research design involves testing the association between U.K. stock returns and alternative accounting numbers. The evidence suggests that, for the sample examined, U.K. GAAP earnings changes have incremental information content after controlling for U.S. GAAP earnings changes, but that earnings levels measured under U.S. GAAP have some independent incremental information content after controlling for U.K. GAAP earnings. The results are consistent with GAAP adjustments having a significant transitory component. The empirical results display explanatory power which is broadly consistent with previous work and the GAAP earnings adjustments add marginally to the ability of earnings to explain returns.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

Accounting earnings and firm valuation: the French case

Considering that the level of the association between stock returns and accounting earnings provides a measure of the extent to which earnings summarize the information which is useful for firm valuation, this paper analyses the contemporaneous association between stock returns and earnings changes or earnings level of individual French stocks and portfolios for periods of one, two and five years between 1981 and 1990. The empirical findings are as follows. (a) Stock returns are more linked to earnings changes than to earnings levels indicating that earnings provide more information about changes in firm value than about firm value. (b) Earnings prepared in accordance with the French accounting principles are not less value-relevant than those prepared in accordance with US or UK GAAP. (c) A cross-sectionally and time-aggregated data procedure provides a large increase in the explanatory power of earnings for returns which is consistent with a noise-in-earnings effect probably induced by accounting measurement and valuation principles and with a recognition lag effect due to the fact that value-relevant events are not integrated into earnings exactly when they occur. These two effects are shown to be the major causes of the low association between earnings and returns generally observed in studies based on short period data for individual stocks.     

The Value-relevance of Geographic Segment Earnings Disclosures Under SFAS 14

This study examines whether geographic segment earnings as reported under the requirements of SFAS 14 provide value-relevant information. The FASB recently issued SFAS 131, which drastically changes the segment reporting requirements for US firms. Firms are required to disclose segment information by operating segment. For those firms that define operating segments along industry lines, disclosure of geographic segment earnings is no longer required. If geographic segment earnings provide value-relevant information, a potentially valuable source of information may be lost.
In this study, geographic segment earnings coefficients are estimated by (1) regressing unexpected security returns on unexpected geographic segment earnings and (2) regressing leading-period returns on current geographic segment earnings. Leading period returns involve extending the return interval to include the returns for prior years. The results show that unexpected geographic segment earnings relate differentially to unexpected security returns. For the leading-period returns model, little significant evidence is found for the market's differential valuation of geographic segment earnings coefficients for one- and two-year return intervals. When the return intervals extend to three years or more, significant evidence is found that the market values geographic segment earnings differently, which suggests that such disclosures reflect information used by market participants in setting security prices. The FASB may want to reconsider or amend its segment reporting requirements.     

基于自由现金流的投资组合研究

本文运用我国股市1998～2006年间的财务报表数据,选择正自由现金流、低自由现金流乘数和低财务杠杆的大公司,对其以自由现金流为基础的投资组合进行了检验。结果显示,以自由现金流为基础的投资组合回报始终优于市场指数,说明在我国股市实行基于自由现金流的投资组合是积极可行的。     

The Impact of Accounting Conservatism on the Compensation Relevance of UK Earnings

Abstract

It has long been established that because of accounting conservatism, the contemporaneous correlation between returns and earnings is lower (higher) for good (bad) news firm-years. Meanwhile, prior analytical agency work suggests that the compensation role of accounting earnings is potentially greater (for tasks such as noise filtering and incentive balancing) when the contemporaneous correlation between earnings and returns is lower. Hence, since accounting conservatism implies that earnings have a lower correlation with returns in good news firm-years, the present paper hypothesises that UK CEO cash compensation exhibits a stronger (weaker) sensitivity to accounting earnings in good (bad) news firm-years. The empirical findings offer substantial support for this hypothesis and are robust to alternative estimation methodologies. In addition, the results appear not to be attributable to the well-established impact of earnings persistence on the compensation–earnings association. Overall, the findings are consistent with the notion that UK compensation committees appear to take cognisance of the impact of accounting conservatism when awarding earnings-based compensation. In addition, the present work offers additional insights into the nature of the interaction between the contracting and valuation roles of accounting numbers.     

LIFO adoption and dividend payout

Adoption of the LIFO inventory costing method tends to decrease reported earnings but increases cash flows to adopting firms. This study examines the change in dividend payout ratios (cash dividends divided by earnings) accompanying LIFO adoption. The question addressed is whether adopting firms likely paid out incremental cash flows or retained them to the benefit of management. The evidence suggests that managers and directors adjusted payout ratios to partially offset the negative earnings effect of LIFO. The adjustments made were not sufficient in magnitude to achieve a neutral LIFO effect on dividend payout, and the net result was the retention of incremental cash flows generated by LIFO adoption.     

The Effects of IFRS Adoption on Observed Earnings Smoothness Properties: The Confounding Effects of Changes in Timely Gain and Loss Recognition

Ball and Shivakumar [(2006), The role of accruals in asymmetrically timely gain and loss recognition. Journal of Accounting Research, 44, 207–242] show that the observed smoothness of earnings (i.e. negative contemporaneous correlation between accruals and cash flows) is the joint product of the role of accruals in smoothing out transitory fluctuations in operating cash flows (noise reduction role) and the role of accruals in providing timely recognition of economic gains and losses (contracting role). These two roles of accruals have opposite effects on earnings smoothness properties. Using a regression framework that allows us to simultaneously consider both roles, we show that failing to control for changes in timely gain and loss recognition as firms shift to IFRS can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the effects of IFRS adoption on earnings smoothness, and consequently on researcher’ conclusions about how IFRS adoption has affected accounting quality. Our results are consistent with mandatory (2005) IFRS adoption resulting in a change in the contracting role rather than the noise reduction role (or smoothness role) of accruals. A decrease in timely loss recognition, an increase in timely gain recognition, and a net decrease in asymmetric timely loss recognition are what drives the change in observed smoothness properties of earnings around mandatory IFRS adoption.     

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non‐crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors.     

Over-investment in corporate R&D,risk, and stock returns

Large-size firms which significantly increase their R&D expenditures experience subsequently three-year-long negative abnormal stock returns on the magnitude of 56 basis-points per month. We find no robust evidence of significant event-induced abnormal returns for small-size sample firms or any systematic risk changes for the small- and large- size firms. We also find that the large-size sample firms generate relatively much larger cash flows (i.e., have significantly greater over-investment discretion) and have significantly larger (over-) valuation multiples than the small-size firms. Moreover, some of their operating performance measures show signs of deterioration instead of improvement following these R&D programs. These findings are consistent with the view that investors initially underestimate the over-investment in R&D by some large-size firms that appear to be overvalued and have high cash flows at the time of the investment, only to be disappointed later.     

Global Market Segmentation and Patterns in Stock Market Reaction to US Earnings Announcements: Further Evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate why the information content of US earnings announcements of non‐US firms cross‐listing in the US varies with the degree of capital market segmentation in the cross‐listing firms' countries of domicile. My evidence shows that indirect barriers to investing (i.e., accounting rules and liquidity differences) rather than direct investment barriers (i.e., investment restrictions) mainly account for this difference. After controlling for the level of accounting disclosure in a firm's country of domicile, I do not observe a systematic difference in the size of market's reaction to earnings announcements depending on the degree of market segmentation in the firm's country of domicile. This study contributes to the literature by providing evidence that accounting disclosure plays an important role in the integration of global capital markets.     

The short and long-run impact of globalization if firms differ in factor input ratios

Empirical evidence has shown that exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters. Based on this evidence, I construct a two-factor general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity in factor intensities, monopolistic competition, scale economies and international trade. This setting can explain several empirical regularities on international trade, factor market competition, factor relocations and factor returns: (i) exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters, regardless of a country's relative factor endowments; (ii) finite supply of capital limits a country's export activities; (iii) trade liberalization increases the relative return to capital; (iv) new profit opportunities in export markets change the distribution of firms towards the more capital intensive ones. Finally, I extend the setting to endogenous capital accumulation and show that trade liberalization induces economic growth and, in the long-run, benefits all factors in real terms.     

The relationship between accounting numbers and returns: some empirical evidence from the emerging market of the Czech Republic

Generally, stock prices reflect future expectations of earnings, whereas accounting data reflect past performance. This paper attempts to discover the relationship between accounting data and market price returns of the companies listed on the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE). The Prague Stock Exchange was established in 1993 and provides an opportunity to make a comparison between a newly established market and the findings of studies of established markets. There has been a wealth of publications and accounting research studies on developed markets. Generally, accounting attributes are thought to be relevant because they tend to be contemporaneously statistically associated with stock prices. Some studies have suggested, and empirically tested, that stock prices lead earnings (e.g. Collins et al., 1987; Kothari, 1992; Kothari and Sloan, 1992; Kothari and Zimmerman, 1995). This study tests the existence of such a relationship in the Czech capital market, relying partially on the methodology proposed by Kothari and Sloan (1992) and Kothari (1992). This paper investigates whether there is a statistically significant permanent relationship between returns and accounting data on the Czech market. The study was conducted using accounting earnings and stock prices during the period 1993–8. The empirical evidence here suggests that a similar relation exists on the emerging Czech market. The relation is statistically significant for measurement windows of one year and longer. The increase in the mean response coefficient, reported later in this study, suggests that one-leading-year returns are as important as contemporaneous returns in terms of their sensitivity to annual earnings changes. However, one cannot infer with a degree of confidence that the Czech capital market views earnings changes to be largely permanent, which would be consistent with the time-series properties of annual earnings.     

WHAT DRIVES CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS? A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The empirical evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows. The drivers are classified using the traditional distinction between ‘push’ and ‘pull’ drivers, which continues to serve as a useful framework. Push factors like global risk aversion and external interest rates are found to matter most for portfolio debt and equity flows, but somewhat less for banking flows. Pull factors such as domestic output growth, asset returns and country risk matter for all three capital flows components, but most for banking flows.     

服装业上市公司的现金流量与会计收益的相关分析及比较——以红豆、杉杉、雅戈尔为例

本文通过对服装业中的三家上市公司的现金流量和会计收益进行总体的相关分析,给出了两者相关分析的一般性结论,并依据结论对三家公司的经营状况做出比较和分析,更加深入地了解公司的真实财力状况、发展潜力和经营风险以及预测未来财务状况,为投资人和企业经营者的决策提供了较为有用的决策依据;本文利用相关分析技术来解读上市公司的现金流量和会计收益提供了一种新思路,具有较一般的方法论意义。     

Considering interrelationships in strategic decisions

Accounting-based valuation studies of US firms tend to support Ohlson's proposition that residual income and book value numbers have information content in explaining observed market values. But European evidence also suggests that the conservative/liberal orientation of accounting tradition can produce significant national differences in associations between accounting performance measures and stock prices - in earnings behaviour, coefficient values and parameter sensitivity. We address these issues from an equity valuation perspective using Swedish data to assess the additional information content of Ohlson's information dynamics and analysts' forecasts in relation to market valuations in a more conservative accounting environment than the US. The study compares the explanatory and predictive power of Ohlson's (1995) residual income model (RIV) with a linear information dynamics version (LIM) that specifies both residual income and non-accounting information as autoregressive processes. Both versions are applied with, and without, future performance expectations from non-accounting sources (analysts' forecasts). As with US evidence, we find that the inclusion of analysts' forecasts improves both (i) cross-sectional correlations with current prices for both RIV and LIM models and (ii) the predictive power of RIV models in relation to future annual cross-sectional stock returns. The contribution of linear information dynamics is significant but varies across approaches. We also find significant differences between Swedish and US firms in earnings behaviour and associations between accounting numbers and market equity prices.