中国经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的“熨平效应”分析

本文利用方差分解方法,分别研究了在支出法和生产法GDP核算下,经济结构调整是否对宏观经济波动具有"熨平"效应。结果发现:(1)无论是以支出法还是生产法来衡量GDP,经济结构调整都对宏观经济波动具有有限的"熨平效应"。(2)结构调整之所以对宏观经济的"熨平"作用有限,是因为中国自1986年以来的结构调整方向有一定偏差。(3)第二产业内部的结构调整"熨平"宏观经济波动的作用较强。(4)要进一步发挥经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的"熨平效应",需要提高消费占GDP的比重,提高波动性小的第三产业中各行业占GDP的比重,同时减少波动性大的第二产业中各行业占GDP的比重,控制第二产业内部高波动性行业的发展速度或努力使其波动性下降。     

The impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality: Evidence from the BRICS

In this paper we investigate how the evolution of income growth, real interest rates, and inflation have driven income inequality across a variety of countries with particular focus on the BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2001 to 2015. Our work suggests that, when central banks of the BRICS economies use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, they need to consider the impact monetary policy changes have on the distribution of income in their nations. Our estimates reveal that the unintended consequence of policies that induce economic growth and higher prices is higher income inequality. We find that the positive relationship between the three macroeconomic variables and income inequality for the BRICS economies is stronger during the post-2008 period.     

An index of macroeconomic performance

This article develops a composite index of macroeconomic performance (IMP) and uses this index to ask: did the macroeconomic performance of the US economy improve during the 1990s relative to its own past performance; and has US macroeconomic performance been superior to that of other advanced capitalist economies during the post‐war period as a whole? It is demonstrated that by studying the behaviour of an IMP, it is possible to draw conclusions about these comparative macroeconomic performance puzzles that are robust with respect to changes between multiple index weighting schemes.     

Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income and also the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policymakers in Greece.     

The Effects of US Macroeconomic Surprises on the Intraday Movements of Foreign Exchange Rates: Cases of USD-EUR and USD-JPY Exchange Rates

This paper characterizes the intraday dynamics of the high frequency US Dollar (USD)–Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD)–Japanese Yen (JPY) foreign exchange rates that have been subject to macroeconomic fundamentals. Even though the FIGARCH model with a normality assumption is found to be a good starting point, it appears to be inappropriate to represent the underlying movements of the high frequency returns due to the occurrences of jumps. Hence, this paper relies on the FIGARCH model with the mixture distribution that allows for the time-varying jumps that are determined by the US macroeconomic surprises. This paper generally finds that the US macroeconomic surprises are closely related to the intraday movements in the volatility process of the high frequency returns process through the jumps. In particular, the US macroeconomic surprises appear to affect the movements in the volatility process of the foreign exchange rates asymmetrically depending on the signs of the surprises and spuriously increasing the long memory persistence in the volatility process due to the jumps.     

The impacts of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the capital adequacy ratio: evidence from Islamic banks

The study investigates the relationship between the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and different bank-specific and macroeconomic variables for 28 Islamic banks. We document that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the CAR and the bank-specific and macroeconomic variables. In particular, bank-specific variables such as ROA, ROE, leverage, credit risk and size show a strong association with the CAR, while on the macroeconomic side, inflation, market capitalization and exchange rate have an impact on the average Islamic bank in our sample study. Furthermore, we run another model (equity to assets ratio) as dependent, with similar control variables, and the results reveal that, except for inflation, all the variables that have a significant effect on the CAR also influence the equity to assets ratio.     

Economic Impacts of Reducing NOx Emissions in Norway

Using a multisector computable general equilibrium model for the Norwegian economy, the impacts on main macroeconomic indicators of reducing NO_x emissions are analyzed. Seven specific technical measures regarding passenger cars, trucks, ships and industrial processes are studied. The measures have somewhat different impacts on the macroeconomy. Especially the measure pertaining to light and heavy duty trucks leads to an increase in GDP, because of higher income from indirect taxes. However, the sum of value added in the production sectors is reduced. The other measures cause a decrease in GDP. All in all, we find that the costs, in terms of reductions in GDP and private consumption, incurred from the introduction of additional NO_x emissions control measures are quite small.     

Beyond Altruism and Self-interest: The Growing Importance of External Factors in the Determination of Remittances Flowing to Latin America

Remittances have become an important and reliable source of funds for many developing countries, affecting the well-being of its population and the performance of their economies. However, challenging conditions in the economies were migrant workers reside has unveiled the increasing importance of external factors in determining their ability to send money back home. This study relies on migration patterns to create migration and distance-weighted measures of external condition, and uses the Arellano and Bond dynamic panel methodology to gauge the relevance of these external macroeconomic conditions during the 1995–2015 period for a set of 18 Latin American countries. The results indicate that external conditions, irrespective of the way in which they are measured, have a positive and statistically significant effect on the amount of remittances flowing into the region, and that such effect go beyond differences in levels, as relative differences prove to be important as well. While the results also show that remittances are inversely related to the income level of receiving countries and that these flows respond positively to better economic performance and higher interest rates in the receiving country, such altruistic and self-interest factors are less consistent than the one found for foreign economic activity.     

CREDIT RATIONING,RISK AVERSION,AND INDUSTRIAL EVOLUTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Relative to their counterparts in high‐income regions, entrepreneurs in developing countries face less efficient financial markets, more volatile macroeconomic conditions, and higher entry costs. This article develops a dynamic empirical model that links these features of the business environment to cross‐firm productivity distributions, entrepreneurs’ welfare, and patterns of industrial evolution. Fit to panel data on Colombian apparel producers, the model yields estimates of a credit market imperfection index, the sunk costs of creating a new business, and various technology parameters. Model‐based counterfactual experiments suggest that improved intermediation could dramatically increase the return on assets for entrepreneurial households with modest wealth.     

Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies

This paper explores macroeconomic policies that can sustain structural change in China and India. A two-sector open-economy model with endogenous productivity growth, demand driven output and income distribution as an important determinant of economic activity is calibrated to a 2000 SAM for China and a 1999/2000 SAM for India. Short-run analysis concerns temporary equilibria for output, productivity and employment growth rates in the formal sector. In the long-run, the model allows for multiple equilibria which can describe cases of (a) underdevelopment and structural heterogeneity or (b) sustained growth and development. Several simulation exercises are conducted. Specifically, we consider how changes in investment, wages, labor productivity trend and a depreciation of currency affect the macroeconomy and job creation in the formal sector.     

地方政府竞争、投资冲动和我国宏观经济波动研究

利用国民收入核算公式,采用HP滤波分析方法,得到国民收入恒等式中各变量增长率的波动项,并依此构建了一个计量模型。然后利用各变量在1990-2004年间的分省数据,分析了各省GDP增长率波动的原因。结论表明,在我国的大多数省,投资增长率的波动是引起GDP增长率波动的主要因素。为剔除地域差异的影响,做了分区域的实证分析,其结果依然显示投资波动是各省GDP增长率波动的主要决定因素。进一步的分析表明,地方政府竞争是导致各省投资冲动、进而造成我国宏观经济波动的深层原因。     

The Lasting Well-Being Effects of Early Adulthood Macroeconomic Crises

This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic crises experienced in early adulthood on subjective well-being (SWB) later in life. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data of over 100,000 individuals from 38 countries around the world combined with historical data on macroeconomic circumstances, I find that having experienced a macroeconomic crisis at ages 18–25 is detrimental to SWB. This result is in line with earlier literature that focuses on other individual-level outcomes. However, the analysis presented in this paper reveals that outcomes related to individual’s earnings, employment status, family life, and religion cannot fully explain the lasting effect of macroeconomic crises on well-being. Results on heterogeneous responses show that the negative effect is largest for females and for individuals with low educational attainment.     

The Shape of ‘Rising Powers’ to Come? The Antinomies of Growth and Neoliberal Development in Turkey

ABSTRACT

The short-term GDP growth-based economic success of the BRICS has spawned a trend of grouping large emerging market economies under shared monikers. The proliferation of a wide array of labels – from MINTs to VISTAs – within political and financial circles has been accompanied by a growing scholarly interest in the study of these ‘emerging markets’ and future ‘rising powers’. This paper discusses the literature on Turkey’s ‘rising power’ status to problematise the conceptual and analytical parameters that shape these wider debates. Accordingly, I argue that the established parameters are wholly based in, and in turn reproduce, a neoliberal conception of development which prioritises a narrowly construed metric of economic progress based on GDP growth, while simultaneously ignoring the associated socio-economic and environmental costs. The paper interrogates the ways in which select macroeconomic indicators have been deployed to legitimise neoliberal reform in Turkey and utilises this case study to mount a methodological challenge to the relevant IR/IPE literatures that conceptualise ‘emerging markets’ and ‘rising powers’ from growth-oriented perspectives.     

Taxation of International Private Capital Flows and Securities Transactions in Developing Countries: Do Public Finance Considerations Augment the Macroeconomic Dividends?

This paper examines policies to tax international private capital flows and securities transactions in developing countries. Many recent studies focus on the macroeconomic dividends associated with these policies (namely, their contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability and lengthened investor time horizons). In this paper I explore whether the potential of these policies to raise much‐needed tax revenues in developing countries augments their well‐known macroeconomic benefits. To my knowledge, there has been no effort to examine systematically the public finance issues related to the taxation of international private capital flows or securities transactions in the developing country context. I conclude that the public finance implications of these policies in middle‐income developing countries offers additional support to the macroeconomic case for them. To different degrees, taxation of international private capital flows and securities transactions has the potential to raise modest revenues in middle‐income countries. However, far more important is the potential of these policies to offer valuable macroeconomic dividends on the national level. These national macroeconomic dividends have the potential to bear fruit globally. This is because experiences with financial contagion over the last decade suggest that global financial stability can be enhanced via the promotion of domestic financial stability in developing countries.     

加入WTO与中国宏观经济管理创新

目前，我国已正式加入WTO。加入WTO必将给中国的宏观经济管理带来巨大的影响，因为世贸组织所确立的一系列规则和机制是用来规范和约束成员国的政府行为。本从宏观经济管理的能力，目标，主体，客体，手段等方面入手，分析了加入WTO对中国宏观经济管理的影响，在此基础上，提出了应对入世挑战的中国宏观经济管理的创新思路。     

Macroeconomic policy regimes,real exchange rate overvaluation,and performance of the Brazilian economy (2003–2015)

The objective of this article is to present a review of the workings of the macroeconomic policy regimes in Brazil since 2003 in order to show that both the macroeconomic policy tripod and the new macroeconomic matrix were not capable of ensuring macroeconomic stability in the medium- to long term due to their incapacity to avoid a persistent overvaluation of the real exchange rate or to stop the increasing trend in primary expenditures/gross domestic product, which produced a major fiscal crisis in 2015.     

What drives inequality and poverty in the EU? Exploring the impact of macroeconomic and institutional factors

Employing panel data techniques, we investigate the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of inequality and poverty in the EU over the period 1994–2008. We pay particular attention to the effects of macroeconomic environment, social protection and labour market institutions. The empirical analysis shows that the social transfers in cash, and principally the transfers that do not include pensions, exert a prominent impact on inequality and poverty. Also significant is the effect of the GDP per capita. The impact of employment on inequality and poverty is not empirically sound. The same holds for the labour market institutions; an exception is the union density, which appears conducive to a less dispersed personal income distribution. Importantly, the results support the view that the social protection system acts as a catalyst in determining the effectiveness of social spending and the distributive role of economic growth and employment.     

Political aspects of household finance: debt,wage bargaining,and macroeconomic (in)stability

The recent literature has shown that income inequality is one of the main causes of borrowing and debt accumulation by working households. This article explores the possibility that household indebtedness is an important cause of rising income inequality. If workers experience rising debt burdens, their cost of job loss may rise if they need labor-market income to continue borrowing and servicing existing debt. This, in turn, will reduce their bargaining power and increase income inequality, inducing workers to borrow more to maintain consumption standards, and so creating a vicious circle of rising inequality, job insecurity, and indebtedness. We believe that these dynamics may have contributed to observed simultaneous increases in income inequality and household debt prior to the recent financial crisis. To explore the two-way interaction between inequality and debt, we develop an employment rent framework that explicitly considers the impact of workers’ indebtedness on their perceived cost of job loss. This is embedded in a neo-Kaleckian macro model in which inequality spurs debt accumulation that contributes to household consumption spending and hence demand formation. Our analysis suggests that (a) workers’ borrowing behavior plays a crucial role in understanding the character of demand and growth regimes; (b) debt and workers’ borrowing behavior play an important role in the labor market by influencing workers’ bargaining power; and (c) through such channels, workers’ borrowing behavior can be a decisive factor in the determination of macroeconomic (in)stability.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in a Mercantilist Economy

By introducing money and foreign exchange in the Zou (1997) model of mercantilism, the paper shows the effects of macroeconomic policies in mercantilist economies. It is shown that in the long run, consumption and foreign asset accumulation increases as a result of stronger mercantilist sentiments, permanent increases in the consumption tax, increases in the monetary growth rate and purchases of foreign bonds. In the short run, however, macroeconomic disturbances including the mercantilist sentiments, the monetary growth rate, and the consumption tax have negative effects on current consumption and positive effects on current foreign asset accumulation, while purchasing foreign bonds has positive effects on both current consumption and current foreign asset accumulation. The theoretical explorations may provide a theoretical structure for hoarding international reserves and export-led growth strategy utilized by emerging market economies.