SIMULTANEITY IN THE UK DAIRY SECTOR*

Because of the high degree of interdependence in the livestock sector, the endogenous variables of econometric models should be simultaneously determined. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of a model of the UK dairy sector in which the herd size, number of culls, replacement heifer price and milk price are determined simultaneously. The major policy conclusion that emerges from the model is that any attempt to increase the price of milk received by farmers via a structural change in the policy rule used to fix the price will be offset by over 50% as a result of increases in the supply of milk.     

A FORECAST OF MILK SUPPLY IN ENGLAND AND WALES

This paper reports the problems encountered in applying Markov Chain analysis to the Permanent sample of milk producers in England and Wales, and presents predictions obtained for producer numbers and milk output, by regions, for the years 1970/71 and 1975/76. As a consequence of the “pool of entrants” problem, dificulties arise both in estimating the required transition probabilities and in forecasting producer numbers. Solutions to these, and to other problems concerned with obtaining prediction of milk output, from those of producer numbers, are proposed. It is forecast that producer numbers will decline by 18 per cent and 33 per cent by 1970/71 and 1975/76 respectively, with the largest proportional decline occurring among smaller producers. Two forecasts are made of milk supply and these are compared with estimates made by the Milk Morltetiiic Board.     

Efficacitè technique et coûts de production dans les secteurs laitiers du Québec et de l'Ontario

This study aims to estimate the level of technical efficiency in milk production and to analyze the relationship between the costs of production, the level of technical efficiency and farm size. Furthermore, the socio-economic variables that characterize the most efficient farms and those producing at lower cost are identified. The results indicate that in Quebec, the level of technical efficiency increases with herd size, but this increase is very small. In Ontario, herd size is not significant to explain technical efficiency. The level of education, the participation in milk recording programs, expenditures per cow fort are and artificial insemination, the quality of hay and the number of years as member of a management club are a11 variables that characterize efficient farms.     

Agricultural Policies and Structural Change in French Dairy Farms: A Nonstationary Markov Model

The aim of this paper is to gain an understanding into how agricultural policies have affected structural change in the French dairy sector. A nonstationary Markov model is estimated using a Generalized Cross Entropy approach. Results show that while the price of cow's milk encourages farm growth, direct payments and quota restriction favor small farms. The price signal is a key factor of structural change. As a result, higher milk prices may accelerate the trend toward the further growth of dairy farms. Settlement policy and technical change seem not to slow this trend.     

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

大城市居民低温奶产品消费及其影响因素分析以北京市为例

目的 低温奶产品是我国唯一可以与国际奶产品相抗衡的产品品类,未来低温奶产品必然在我国形成新的消费趋势,并成为复兴民族乳业的关键。基于此,探究大城市居民的低温奶产品消费认知水平、消费现状及其消费的影响因素既可开拓国内低温奶产品消费市场,也可弥补该产品消费研究的不足,对提高我国奶业国际竞争力具有重要现实意义。方法 文章通过使用2019年北京市8个辖区内的418位城镇居民乳制品消费调研数据,以不同群体特征作为切入点,深度分析大城市居民低温奶产品消费认知水平及消费现状,并借助Heckman两阶段模型考察个人及家庭特征和产品认知信息是否是影响城镇居民低温奶产品消费行为决策和消费水平的主要因素。结果 学生人口数、工作人口数、收入水平以及年龄、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策。年龄、教育水平以及性别、人口总数、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费水平。营养价值、口感风味和制作工艺因素对居民巴氏杀菌奶消费行为决策和消费水平均有显著影响,而保质期和价格因素仅对消费行为决策有显著影响。口感风味、制作工艺和价格因素对居民低温酸奶消费行为决策影响显著,但只有口感风味因素对消费水平有显著影响。结论 城镇居民低温奶产品认知概念薄弱,对营养价值、口感风味和保质期信息的认知程度较高。低温奶产品消费具有区域性差异,消费主力集中在女性人群、40~50岁人群、高学历和高收入人群中。个人和家庭特征以及产品认知信息对城镇居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策和消费水平均具有显著影响。未来我国大城市居民的乳制品消费将逐渐趋于新鲜化和休闲化发展,低温奶产品消费将发展为新兴消费趋势,液态奶产品消费结构逐步改善。     

Scale Economies,Technical Efficiency,and the Sources of Total Factor Productivity Growth of Quebec Dairy Farms

Canada's average cost for milk production is among the highest in the world. This paper focuses on specific potential causes by estimating economies of scale and technical efficiency for a panel of Quebec dairy farms that spans the 2001–10 period. Additionally, this paper investigates the sources of total factor productivity growth. The stochastic frontier analysis, based on an input‐distance function, is used to estimate returns to scale relationships across dairy farms. The results show that there is significant economies scale to be exploited and that cost of production could also be reduced by improving technical efficiency. Accordingly, the paper indicates that input‐mix effect is the main source of total factor productivity growth. The results have important implications for Canada's supply management policy, and more specifically for the trading of production quota between dairy farmers, as well as for the delivery of targeted extension services.     

Technical Efficiency Measures for Dairy Farms Based on a Probabilistic Frontler Function Model

This study reports measures of technical efficiency in milk production based on a probabilistic frontier production function model of the Cobb-Douglas type. Technical efficiency ranges between 57–69 and 100.00 percent with a mean of 82.17 percent. The results suggest that the same volume of milk produced by the farms in the sample could have been achieved with approximately 18 percent fewer resources if all farms would have operated at 100 percent technical efficiency. A major conclusion of the study is that although economies of size are slightly greater than one, farm size and technical efficiency are statistically independent variables.
Cette étude rapporte des mesures d'efficacité technique en matière de production de lait basées sur un modèle de la production frontière probabilistique de genre Cobb-Douglas. L'efficacité technique varie entre 57.69 pourcent et 100 pourcent avec une moyenne de 82.17 pourcent. Les résultats suggèrent que le volume de lait produit par les fermiers dans l'échantillon aurait pu être accompli avec environ 18 pourcent moins de ressources si tous les fermiers auraient óperé a 100 pourcent d'efficacité technique. Une des conclusions majeures est que meme si les économies d'échelle réalisées se trouvent légèrement plus importantes que l'unité, la grandeur de la ferme et l'efficacité technique sont des variables indépendentes en termes statistiques.     

内蒙古奶源供给组织模式比较分析与目标模式研究

[目的]随着生产力的发展,各种新型奶源供给组织模式应运而生,这是生产发展的必然。[方法]文章在比较研究、案例研究和实证分析基础上,对当前内蒙古奶源供给组织模式的基本经营方式进行定性比较和定量的测量,分析了当前内蒙古乳品产业链奶源供给组织模式的6种基本经营方式。[结果]研究指出:当前内蒙古奶源供给的各种模式,这些组织模式均是经营者在生产经营中处于利益诉求理性选择的结果,其各具优劣势,但从无论从组织生产、利益分配、产业化程度、销售各个方面都能充分证明,合作社将成为内蒙古奶源供给组织的主要形式和目标模式。[结论]内蒙古"奶牛专业合作社"的奶源供给组织模式的完善和普遍推进还需长期努力。     

FORECASTING MILK OUTPUT IN ENGLAND AND WALES*

This paper evaluates the ablility of an autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model to forecast monthly milk output before and after the imposition of quotas in April 1984. In the post quota period the standard arima model is modified to a ‘discontinuity’ model allowing the quota to be represented explicitly. It is concluded that for a medium term forecast this is preferable to the standard arima model, whilst for one period ahead forecasts the models are equally good.     

Demand for milk quantity and safety in urban China: evidence from Beijing and Harbin

Urban households account for most of the milk consumption in China, but their consumption is hampered by safety concerns. Using survey data collected in Beijing and Harbin in 2010, this paper simultaneously analyses urban households' milk consumption using a multiple linear model and their willingness‐to‐pay for milk safety using an ordered choice model. The results of this study show that as income increases, urban households consume more milk and are willing to pay a higher premium for milk safety. Modern food marketing channels play a positive role in stimulating milk consumption and building consumers' confidence in milk safety. The growth in the elderly population influences milk consumption positively, but their demand for milk safety is negatively affected by higher price. The combined analysis of households' demand for milk quantity and safety may be useful to the Chinese government in promoting the development of the domestic milk industry and to dairy firms in exploring the milk market in China.     

CHANGING PERSPECTIVES IN AGRICULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN AGRONOMIST'S VIEW

This paper is concerned with five main topics-the size of the agricultural tasks ahead of us during a period of increasing change in the poorer countries: recent trends in food supplies and agricultural output; the constraints, including those outside the domain of agronomy, which hinder growth in output; the technical prospects in agronomy as they can be perceived at present; and some thoughts about the nature of future change in rural areas.     

Estimating random effects production function models with selectivity bias: an application to Swedish crop producers

In this paper, the estimation of production functions and measurement of the rate of technical change is performed when selectivity bias is expected. A sample selection model consisting of a selection and a regression equation is estimated using Heckman's two-stage method. It is discussed in the context of a production function where the underlying technology is represented by a translog functional form. For the regression, a random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is assumed. This model and an alternative conventional model retaining heteroscedasticity without considering selectivity bias are estimated using the Generalized Least Squares method. The data used are a large rotating panel data set from Swedish crop producers over the period 1976–1988. The empirical results from the comparison between these two models show that the introduction of heteroscedasticity and the integration of sample selection in the production relationship is important. The impact of a correction for selectivity bias on the results, in terms of input elasticities and returns to scale is found to be significant.     

黑龙江省耕地利用效率时空差异及影响因素研究

[目的]揭示区域耕地利用效率变化及影响因素,为提高区域耕地资源利用效率提供科学依据。[方法]文章采用了非期望产出SBM模型、Tobit模型、变异系数法、K均值聚类法。[结果](1)黑龙江省耕地利用综合技术效率总体呈现下降趋势,纯技术效率不高是制约综合技术效率提升的主要原因;(2)1994~2014年间耕地利用效率区域差异总体呈现增大趋势;1994~2005年各区域耕地利用效率差异较小,但变幅较大,该时期综合技术效率区域分异主要受纯技术效率的影响;2006~2014年耕地利用效率区域差异较大,但变幅较小,该时期综合技术效率分异主要受规模效率影响;(3)经聚类,齐齐哈尔、伊春、牡丹江、大兴安岭为I类地区,为耕地利用综合技术效率高效率区,纯技术效率略高于规模效率;鸡西、双鸭山、大庆、佳木斯、七台河、黑河、绥化为Ⅱ类地区,为中效率区,纯技术效率与规模效率相当;哈尔滨、鹤岗为Ⅲ类地区,为低效率区,纯技术效率远低于规模效率;I类地区投入要素利用率Ⅱ类地区Ⅲ类地区;(4)影响因素按影响程度依次为劳动力比例、单位播种面积农业机械总动力、农村劳动力人均播种面积、单位播种面积化肥施用量,其中农村劳动力人均播种面积对耕地利用效率为正向影响,其余均为负向影响。[结论]1994~2014年黑龙江省耕地利用效率呈下降趋势且区域差异较大,主要受劳动力、农机、化肥及播种面积影响。     

A Growth Accounting Analysis of Cost Efficiency in Milk Production for Six Northern States in the United States

This paper reports on the use of a growth accounting approach to calculate and decompose cost efficiency indices into technical change, regional competitive advantage stemming from spatial effects, and economies of size. Dairy farm data for Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania for the years 1968, 1970, 1977, 1980 and 1988 are utilized in the analysis. The results show that technological change yielded a 1.8% average annual rate of cost reduction over the period studied. In addition, medium and large farms were, on average, 12% to 20% more efficient than small farms. Pennsylvania had a distinct competitive advantage (13.8%), while Maine exhibited a clear competitive disadvantage (−18.2%) in producing milk relative to New York.     

QUANTITATIVE POLICY MODELLING IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The paper reconsiders the topic of McClements' 1973 article on model-building but does so in the particular context of policy modelling. Some principles are discussed, along with the relationship of the real world to its representation in a model built for a specific purpose. The assumptions and implications of the econometric and time-series approaches to policy modelling are contrasted, and lessons drawn for model specification and selection. The management, use and dissemination of policy models are also discussed. It is hoped that the experience of the last ten or fifteen years will lead to model-building in agricultural economics being better organised and more rewarding in future.     

Production Efficiency of Jasmine Rice Producers in Northern and North‐eastern Thailand

The paper jointly evaluates the determinants of switching to Jasmine rice and its productivity while allowing for production inefficiency at the level of individual producers. Model diagnostics reveal that serious selection bias exists, justifying use of a sample selection framework in stochastic frontier models. Results from the probit variety selection equation reveal that gross return (mainly powered by significantly higher Jasmine rice price), access to irrigation and education are the important determinants of choosing Jasmine rice. Results from the stochastic production frontier reveal that land, irrigation and fertilisers are the significant determinants of Jasmine rice productivity. Significantly lower productivity in Phitsanulok and Tung Gula Rong Hai provinces demonstrate the influence of biophysical and environmental factors on productivity performance. The mean level of technical efficiency is estimated at 0.63 suggesting that 59% [(100 ? 63)/63] of the productivity is lost due to technical inefficiency. Policy implications include measures to keep Jasmine rice price high, increase access to irrigation and fertiliser availability, as well as investment in education targeted to farm households which will synergistically increase adoption of Jasmine rice as well as farm productivity.     

SOME DEVELOPMENTS IN SCOTTISH FARMING SINCE THE WAR

The paper takes a panoramic view of Scottish farming since the war and considers in turn developments in the three major sectors, namely of livestock rearing in the hills and uplands and of dairying and arable farming in the lowlands. During this period, hill and upland farming has operated within a consistent long-term policy framework designed to achieve comprehensive rehabilitation of these areas. The reasons why this policy has not so far succeeded are examined. The more recent changes in policy for these areas are referred to, which at one and the same time have enlarged the agricultural role of the hills and uplands and greatly increased the need for adjustment and innovation in their farming practices. Turning to lowland farming, the paper refers particularly to developments in the case of milk and beef production and in arable farming and makes some contrasts of administrative and policy significance with corresponding English farming. The last part of the paper discusses some of the dificulties in achieving a balance between stability and efficiency in agricultural policy.     

Consumer Market Research on Milk in the Rural Greek Population

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse the consumption of different kinds of milk by the rural population of Greece, using the methods of multivariate analysis. First, using principal components analysis and the qualitative characteristics of milk, consumption patterns (profiles) for milk are formed. Secondly, the influence of socio-economic factors on these consumption pattems are estimated using variance analysis. Results revealed that the attitude of rural residents towards milk consumption is dominated by three critical issues: rationality, the practicality and rise of purchase, and new trend. An important finding is the existence of a high correlation between the degree of confidence in the product and the length of time that the product has been on the market. Moreover, while condensed milk exhibits a strong and positive profile in the milk market, its market share is expected to continue to drop in favour of pasteurised milk. Finally, some further implications of the study are drawn, concerning the milk companies' marketing strategies in the Greek rural population.     

Decomposition Measures of Technical Efficiency for Ontario Dairy Farms

Technical efficiency measures for Ontario dairy farms are computed and decomposed into purely technical, congestion and scale efficiency measures using a non-parametric programming approach. Approximately 42% of the farms in the sample are technically efficient, while the major sources of inefficiency for the remaining farms are due to pure technical allocation and to non-optimal scale of production. A censored regression indicate that herd size, milk yield and butterfat content of milk has a positive influence on efficiency, while negative effects are found from the proportion. of total feed purchased and overcapitalization. The variation in optimal scale between herd sizes implies a range of farm sizes will continue to exist, provided the appropriate technology for the scale of operation is chosen.
Des mesures d'efficacité technique pour des fermes laitières en Ontario sont calculées et ensuite décomposées en mesures de rendement techniques d'échelle et de congestion à l'aide d'une approche de programmation non-paramétrique. Environ 42% des fermes dans l'échantillon sont techniquement efficaces. Les principales sources d'inefficacité des autres fermes sont reliées à des problèmes d'allocation technique et d'échelle de production. Une régression censurée indique que la grosseur de troupeau, la production de lait par vache de même que le pourcentage de gras dans le lait ont une influence positive sur le rendement tandis que la proportion de fourrage acheté et la sous-capitalisation ont une influence négative. La variation dans l'échelle optimale de production par grosseur de troupeau laisse sous-entendre qu'on continuera de voir un certain écart dans la taille des fermes laitiéres si les technologies appropriées pour les differences échelles de production sont selectionnées.