FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS OF COMMODITY SPOT PRICES: LIVE CATTLE AND WOOL*

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.     

THE EFFECTS OF FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES ON AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

The implication of price stabilisation under a volatile exchange rate is an increasingly volatile price denominated in a foreign currency. Time series analysis is used to model the relationship between exports, prices and AWC stocks. This model is used to assess the distribution of the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices denominated in local and foreign currencies. It is found that the AWC has significantly reduced the impact of exchange rate shocks on domestic prices.     

STRUCTURAL AND SPATIAL CHANGES IN THE MINK FARMING INDUSTRY OF ALBERTA

The purpose of the study is to discuss the structural and locational changes which have occurred in the mink farming industry of Alberta. Data were collected by postal questionnaire and direct interview. Thirty percent of 149 mink farmers in the 1967/68 season in Alberta were surveyed. The data was cross-tabulated and per-cenlaged. Mink farming in Alberta is discussed vis-a-vis the rest of Canada, and the location of mink farms within the province is traced. Mink farm size, farm income, markets for pelts, feed supply and costs, and the background characteristics of farmers are discussed. Problems cited by mink farmers and their future plans and suggestions for remedial action for the industry's problems are also analysed. It is suggested that more small farmers will “pelt out” unless there is further government intervention in the industry as well as cooperative action taken by the mink farmers themselves. Locations for farms in the city near meat packing houses provides a more stable feed and labour supply than the traditional lakeside location. Larger scale production, concentration on quality pelts, and more cooperative purchasing and marketing arrangements could alleviate some of the industry's hardships. Cette étude discute les changes spatiaux et structuraux dans ?industrie des visons de ?Alberta. Les statisliques etait oblenus par un questionnaire postale el les enlrevues directes. De 149 fermiers de visons dans la saison du 1967*68, trente pourcentage était examiné. Les statisliques étaienl analysés par les pourcentages el aussi les résultats était croisé-classifier. La perspective de ?industrie des visons dans ?Alberta est discuté centre les circonslances pour le Canada, et ?emplacement des fermes dans le province est décrit. Les dimensions des fermes de visons, les revenus, les marchés, ?alimentation et les coúts, et les caractéristiques des fermiers, sonl discutés. Les problémes qui ont allégués par les fermiers et leurs plans pour ?avenir et leurs propositions pour la solution, des problemes de ?industrie, sonl analyses. II est suggéré que les plus pedis fermes va abandonner s'il n y a pas ?aide du gouvernement provincial de meme que factions coopératifs entre leurs-mêmes. Dans les situations des fermes dans la ville près des abattoirs, il y a une approvisionne-ment de ?alimentation et du travail plus assure des situations le long des lacs. C'est possible que les arrangements cooperatifs pour acheter et vendre, ?accenl sur la qualite des fourrures et une augmentation dans ?échelle de la production va alléger quelques des problems de ?industrie dans ?Alberia     

LONG SWING HYPOTHESIS FOR CATTLE AND HOG OUTPUT AND PRICES IN CANADA: AN APPLICATION OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS*

Knowledge of the nature of variability in the cattle and hog sectors of Canadian agriculture may be considered an aid in developing effective stabilization policies for agriculture. Traditional times series methods have been applied in the past to ascertain the nature of cyclical fluctuations in cattle and hog sectors. In this paper an attempt is made to ascertain the cattle and hog cycle using the concept of spectrum. Monthly data for the period January 1949 to April 1972 were employed. In addition, for the cattle sector annual observations for the 1914–1972 period were used to verify the existence of long swings. A preliminary analysis of monthly data revealed the presence of serious seasonal fluctuations in data, which were subsequently removed using a time-invariant linear filter. The study suggests the existence of a 40-month cycle in hog output and a 10-year cycle for cattle. The study further tested the existence of these cycles by varying the number of truncation points. The length of the dominant cycle remained unchanged with the change in the number of truncation points. Une connaissance de l'espèce de variabilité qui existe dans le domaine des bodives et des cochons dans l'agriculture canadienne peut être considérée avantageuse an développement des mésures efficaces pour la stabilisation de l'agri-culture. On a employé au passé, les méthodes traditionnelles des séries de temps pour déterminer la nature des fluctuations cycliques dans le domaine des bodives et des cochons. Dans cet ouvrageci, on a essayé de déterminer le cycle des bodives et des cochons en se servant du concept des spectres. On a fait usage des données mensuelles pour le période Janvier 1949 jusqu'à avril 1972. En outre, dans le domaine des bovins on a employé des observations annuelles pour la période 1914–1972 pour vérifier l'existence de grands changements temporels. Une analyse préliminaire des données mensuelles a révéle la presence des grandes fluctuations des données. On s'est débarrassé des ces fluctuations en employant un filtre linéaire de temps invariable. L'etude suggère I'existence d'un cycle de 40 mois dans la production des cochons et un cycle de 10 ans dans le cos des bovides. En outre, l'étude a examiné l'existence de ces cycles en variant le numéro des points de troncature. La longueur du cycle dominant est resté le même, malgré le changement dans le numéro des points de troncature.     

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY GREEK FARMERS

This paper investigates empirically the impact of inflation on the terms of trade, prices received and paid, for Greek farmers in the period 1967–87. According to conventional theory, inflation can have a non-neutral effect if it is unanticipated and if prices received and paid by farmers exhibit different degrees of flexibility. However, in the case where prices are administered, inflation neutrality depends on government's policy objectives and ability to adjust prices of inputs and outputs to the rate of inflation. The empirical investigation undertaken in this study shows that pricing policies implemented by the Greek government have resulted in neutralising the impact of inflation on the terms of trade for Greek farmers. Furthermore, the observed significant variability of the terms of trade can be attributed solely to real demand and supply factors.     

A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry. These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market. In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.     

论地勘队伍结构调整及其发展方向

文章结合广东省地勘局的实际,分析了地勘经济结构的现状,指出了地勘经济结构调整与发展的方向,提出用解放思想,转变观念,深化改革来促进地勘经济全面发展的具体思路.     

关于近期粮油价格上涨问题的分析与对策

2006年第四季度以来,市场的粮油价格出现明显上涨,引起了广大消费者的关注和中央领导的重视。因此,笔者通过走访粮食批发市场和调查有关历史资料,对近期粮油涨价情况进行分析,并提出相应的对策。近期粮油涨价情况分析1.粮油品种和价格波动监测情况从监测表分析可知,2006年9月上旬至12月上旬,每公斤早籼米从2.26元涨到2.42元,涨幅为7%;晚籼米持平,晚粳米略有下降;菜油从5.40元上涨到7.60元,涨幅为41%;豆油从5.60元上涨到8.10元,涨幅为45%;面粉从2.00元上涨到2.16元,涨幅为8%。2.粮油涨价原因分析①受国际粮食市场影响。2006年澳大利亚发生严…     

PRICE EFFECTS OF WOOL MARKETING INNOVATIONS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Conflicting claims are often made about the price effects of specific wool marketing innovations. In this paper, a regression model is used to estimate the price effects of two innovations, namely, computerised selling by separation and pre-sale, dense packaging of wool. The results are indicative of aggregate price differentials between wool sold via the 'normal' system and via an innovative system for the particular wool types and sale dates analysed. The extent to which price effects may be offset by differences in selling charges is also considered. In addition, some underlying reasons for price differences, where they exist, are proposed.     

CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND THE DETERMINANTS OF LAND PRICES

This paper outlines the concept of co-integration and its use in econometric modelling. The techniques of co-integration analysis are described, with particular emphasis given to test procedures. Co-integration between two or more variables is taken to imply the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Co-integration analysis is applied in a re-examination of recent empirical models of the determination of land prices in England and Wales. The results suggest that recent land price models do not describe longrun relationships between land prices and the explanatory variables selected. Criticisms of the different measurements of returns to land used in studies to date are sustained by the analysis, and a clear role for interest rates in the determination of land prices is indicated.     

我国水产品拍卖交易方式探析

实施拍卖交易是我国水产品批发市场交易方式创新的必然选择。鉴于我国水产品批发市场全面推行拍卖交易存在许多制约因素,当前仍可以采取拍卖交易与对手交易相结合的模式,逐步扩大拍卖交易范围,实现以拍卖交易为主的发展模式。     

未来人口变化与消费方式转换对我国渔业资源的影响

本文结合人口预测方法,从人口和经济两方面分析和预测了人口发展和消费方式转变对我国未来渔业资源的影响.通过因素分解方法,分别得到了人口总量变化和城市化水平提高对水产品消费需求的影响;通过曲线拟合的方法,分别得到农村和城镇收入水平变化对人均水产品消费的影响.并结合以上两方面的预测结果,得出2005-2020年间我国水产品消费总量的需求变化.根据预测分析,对我国渔业资源的可持续性利用进行了一些理论探讨.     

海洋渔业产业结构性矛盾与调整对策的探讨

在我国海洋渔业产业结构中,第一产业的产值约占总产值的54％,第二产业为32％、第三产业仅占14％,表明我国海洋渔业存在产业结构层次较低的现象。同时,在各产业内部,又存在产业严重趋同和经济效益低下的低水平经营现象。本文试图从解剖我国海洋渔业产业结构存在的问题着手,分析形成这些问题的原因,探讨调整沿岸海洋渔业产业结构的可能途径。     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.