The relationships between income and price elasticities in studies of housing demand,tenure choice,and household formation

Three decisions pertaining to the demand for housing are (1) household formation, (2) tenure choice, and (3) how much housing to consume, given the household formation and tenure choice decisions. Income and price elasticities can be estimated that include one, two, or all three of these decisions. The relationships between these elasticities are developed.     

Mobility and optimal tenure choice

In this paper, we offer a dynamic model of the optimal tenure behavior of an individual who faces the possibility of moving multiple times during his lifetime. We also investigate the lifetime effects of such factors as income tax, property tax, transaction costs, and mortgage rates on the household’s tenure choice. The agents in the model utilize a genetic algorithm, a probabilistic search approach, to determine their optimal lifetime tenure choice path. The agents are forward looking in that they anticipate such possible events as changes in jobs, marital status, household size, or dissatisfaction with current residence. Our results suggest several housing policy implications and explain some of the empirical findings in the literature.     

A Comparison of the Determinants of Structural Quality between Manufactured Housing and Conventional Tenure Choices: Evidence from the American Housing Survey

This study employs data from the 1985-1989 American Housing Surveys to compare the cost and perceived structural quality of owned manufactured housing with traditional rented and owner-occupied housing alternatives. In general, manufactured housing is found to compare to traditional alternatives because of its low cost and households′ perceptions that its structural quality is relatively high. An ordinal probit model is used to examine the way in which specific structural attributes affect households′ ordinal ranking of overall structural quality. This experimentation suggests that the same factors are important across all tenure types in influencing perceived structural quality. In addition, it is demonstrated that, under the right circumstances, manufactured housing could be a cost-effective way to improve the quality of housing for low-income families who currently rent. Finally, suggestions are made regarding policy options and future research on manufactured housing.     

Cross-sectional estimation of a simultaneous model of tenure choice and housing services demand

In this paper we analyze the demand for housing services, integrating into a single analysis a systematic treatment of several important conceptual and empirical issues. Our three major objectives are to (1) evaluate the empirical importance of the simultaneity between the tenure choice and consumption level decisions; (2) analyze the relationship between household type and housing demand; and (3) present new estimates of the parameters of housing demand which are based on detailed microdata. In the process, we derive and estimate overall income and price demand elasticities which incorporate the impacts of income and price on both the tenure choice and consumption level decisions.     

NO CHOICE: REFORMING SOCIAL HOUSING IN ENGLAND

This paper considers the current and future prospects for social housing. It looks at the key issues of choice and affordability that dominate housing policy, how this links social housing to the dominant tenure of owner-occupation and how government has sought to control social housing allowing for a managed decline of the sector. The final part of the paper proposes some reforms which will introduce real choice into rented housing and empower low-income households. This, however, will necessitate the end of social housing as a distinct tenure.     

居京韩国人住房租买选择内在影响因素分析

北京要建设世界城市，研究外国人在北京的住房租买选择，对城市空间布局和房地产发展具有重要实践意义。本文以居京韩国人为研究对象，通过调查访谈所掌握的第一手数据资料，运用卡方（χ^2）检验方法对韩国人在京租买房的内在影响因素进行了分析。研究发现，居京韩国人租买房决策主要与各职业群体对中国当地社会的依存度、家庭收入水平、未来居留时间等因子正相关，与他们在韩国是否有住房没有明显的相关性。另外，驻京大型公司的职员因有其公司给予的住房补贴，一般租房居住，对购房持消极态度。     

Housing: the challenge for policy

In this article, Kate Barker, Chief Economic Advisor to the CBI, argues that housing market policies need to adapt to reflect the changing nature of the UK economy. In a flexible labour market with more job insecurity, a stronger rented sector is likely to be needed. But while policies have recently shifted away from supporting owner-occupation - in particular by reducing mortgage tax relief - there has been a lack of a coherent approach to encouraging affective forms of tenure. The article discusses a number of different policies which meet the two objectives of stimulating a stronger supply of rented housing, while reducing the volatility of the owner-occupied sector.     

Housing, taxation and retirement provision

This paper considers the tax treatment of housing and the issue of savings for retirement in the context of a simplified model that still allows key aspects of the household context to be realistically represented. A model is developed in which both housing and financial assets can be used as vehicles for household saving. Individuals face perfect capital markets and choose between owner-occupied and rented accommodations. For the model developed, it is shown that the tax advantage of owner-occupied housing is not fully removed even if imputed rents are subject to income taxation. However, deferred income taxation for both housing and savings in the form of financial assets would result in an equal treatment of tenants and owner-occupiers.     

Tenure decisions,mortgage interest,and the spatial distribution of housing demand: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a model for analyzing household tenure decisions and life cycle planning decisions that must be made simultaneously with housing location decisions. It is found that increases in the leverage sensitivity of mortgage interest structures lead to flatter housing gradients within the city. We examine conditions under which households tend to move further from the center with age and income and under which home purchasers will tend to outbid renters at distances further from the center.     

Does Home Ownership by Parents Have an Economic Impact on Their Children?

This paper uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explore the impact of housing on children's productivity through educational attainment and through their housing choices as adults after they leave their parent's home. After controlling for other factors that are normally hypothesized to affect an individual's education and earnings, we find that the average child of homeowners is significantly more likely to achieve a higher level of education and, thereby, a higher level of earnings. We also find that having controlled for the factors traditionally thought to influence an individual's choice of housing tenure, as well as other parental characteristics, the housing tenure of parents plays a primary role in determining whether or not the child becomes a homeowner.     

Analysis of the Changing Influences on Traditional Households' Ownership Patterns

Sociological and economic forces have begun to alter ownership patterns in ways not yet captured by movements in the aggregate ownership rate. While demographic factors such as marital status and family structure remain influential in determining tenure choice, their impact has waned, particularly among the best educated households and those with rising real incomes. Labor market conditions, as evidenced by increasing returns to skill, are more strongly felt than ever before in the housing market. The impact on owning of being highly educated now rivals the influence of being married with minor children. Increasingly delayed ownership is a reality, even for traditional family units with 36- to 45-year-old heads that have not prospered in the labor market. The rising real cost of even relatively inexpensive suburban housing is also beginning to be reflected in a heightened impact for real family income on tenure choice. Finally, race currently is more adversely influential in determining suburban ownership for young, middle-aged minority families than it was in 1960, particularly if the household head is not well educated. We suspect this is due to racially disparate impacts of increasingly rigorous zoning regulations and higher impact fees in the suburbs.     

Tenure choice and housing demand in Japan

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of tenure choice and housing demand that makes use of household-level data from Japan. The paper finds that the price and permanent-income elasticities of demand for owneroccupied housing are approximately −0.8 and 1.4, respectively, and that these estimates are highly robust. The price elasticity estimate is comparable to those for other countries, but the income elasticity estimate is much higher, possibly because of the greater accuracy of the income variable. It is also found that the tenure choice and housing demand decisions are apparently not made simultaneously.     

Housing tenure transitions of older households: Life cycle, demographic, and familial factors

Understanding the housing choices of the older households will grow in importance as the baby boom generation starts to retire. This analysis utilizes a rich longitudinal data set (PSID) to provide insight into the reasons why older households make housing transitions. Because of the richness of the data, this analysis is able to control for life transitions, a household's income and wealth, and connection to one's children in predicting when a homeowner makes a housing transition. The results demonstrate that age is not related directly to housing tenure choice for older households. Instead, having lower health status and being a single head of household is the important predictor of housing tenure transitions. At the same time, very few life changing events immediately lead a homeowner to become a renter, although they do influence the decision to downsize or consumer home equity. Finally, living next to one's children lowers the probability of becoming a renter or downsizing, and having richer children increases the probability of downsizing and thereby consuming one's housing wealth.     

A dynamic,policy oriented model of the regulated housing market: The Swedish prototype

The design and preliminary implementation of a dynamic, policy oriented model of the regulated housing market is presented. The model is developed in the context of the Swedish housing market institutions which combine nearly all features encountered in other nations. Free buying and selling by homeowners, black markets, swapping of dwellings and rationing of price controlled dwellings both by landlords and a public authority are included as explicit transaction options (with distinct costs) available to existing and newly formed households in the market. The model simulates a sequence of temporary annual equilibria which are obtained by balancing effective demands with effective supplies. Household mobility choices, landlords' selling decisions and the rationing of dwellings at fixed prices are derived from stochastic maximization resulting in multinomial or nested logit models of choice behavior. An aggregated preliminary 16-equation version is calibrated with partly real, partly guesstimated data for the Greater Stockholm region in the mid-seventies. Qualitative comparative statatics and income compensated policy simulations with this version illustrate some unintended effects of Swedish housing policy resulting from the manipulation of the income tax, an income tax dependent property tax and housing allowances. The model provides a tool whereby deregulating institutional changes which are potentially Pareto improving can be identified. If, however, current institutions such as the rationing of dwellings result in sufficiently lower transactions costs for households relative to the free market, then deregulation is not Pareto preferred.     

Household tenure choice and migration

A model of the joint tenure choice and migration decision is estimated. Unlike previous work that has considered each decision separately or examined the premigration tenure status choice jointly with the migration decision, this analysis addresses change in tenure status as well. The empirical findings indicate that variables often thought to affect either or both tenure status of the residence location change decision have offsetting or augmenting effects on their joint probabilities which are masked if the decisions are examined independently.     

Are There Tax Arbitrage Opportunities in Private Rental Housing Markets?

Tax arbitrage opportunities in rental housing markets arise when high bracket taxpayers exploit the tax shelter and conversion features of the tax treatment of rental housing and as a consequence offer low bracket taxpayers rental housing at a cost lower than if they purchased the same quantity of housing for owner occupation. A microdata set has been employed to estimate the size of these tax arbitrage opportunities with respect to 1907 properties owned by Australian landlords. The measure of tax arbitrage opportunities is the breakeven tax rate at which the maximum rental rate a potential occupant is prepared to pay before turning to purchased housing is equal to the landlord's reservation rental rate. Potential occupants with marginal tax rates below the breakeven tax rate find that renting has a relative cost advantage over home purchase. When agency costs (the costs incurred in managing landlord-tenant relationships) are included in the tax arbitrage model, our estimates of the breakeven tax rate indicate that home purchase has a relative cost advantage over renting for most potential occupants. Renting is only financially attractive to low tax bracket individuals. This finding is consistent with Australian tenure patterns. However, there are more puzzling results. A majority of landlords belong to tax brackets below the top bracket, landlords in the lowest tax brackets typically make below normal profits, and reservation rental rates at the bottom of the rental housing market are relatively high. Down payment requirements, lock-in effects, and rent clientele groups are put forward as possible explanations for these findings.     

居京韩国人住房租买选择内在影响因素分析

北京要建设世界城市,研究外国人在北京的住房租买选择,对城市空间布局和房地产发展具有重要实践意义。本文以居京韩国人为研究对象,通过调查访谈所掌握的第一手数据资料,运用卡方(χ2)检验方法对韩国人在京租买房的内在影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,居京韩国人租买房决策主要与各职业群体对中国当地社会的依存度、家庭收入水平、未来居留时间等因子正相关,与他们在韩国是否有住房没有明显的相关性。另外,驻京大型公司的职员因有其公司给予的住房补贴,一般租房居住,对购房持消极态度。     

The demand for housing in Sweden: Equilibrium choice of tenure and type of dwelling

Most studies of housing demand and tenure choice only identify two modes of tenure: owner-occupied one-family houses and rental apartments. Furthermore they are typically based on a cross section across all households. In this study we use recent Swedish data to overcome these weaknesses. We identify owner-occupied apartments (coop shares) as a third mode of tenure, and show that this should be treated separately. We also use information about the household's own assessment of its probability of moving during the next year. We demonstrate that it makes a large difference if likely movers are eliminated from the sample.     

A model of rental and owner-occupied housing

A complete model of owner-occupied and rental housing is developed. The model allows for the endogenous determination of rents, the user cost of owner-occupied housing and housing tenure choice by individuals. In the short run, structure prices are endogenous, while in the long run the size of the housing stock adjusts to equate structure prices to exogenous construction costs. Comparative static results emphasize the importance of marginal tax rates and distinguishing between the short and long run for a complete understanding of the impacts of inflation on housing markets.     

Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption

This paper analyzes a household's choice of housing tenure within a dynamic utility maximization model that yields simple analytical results under uncertainty of income, housing prices, and rents. Given a housing consumption plan, we show that a decrease in the covariance between a household's earnings and housing rents increases the likelihood of ownership. A household who plans to remain in its home over a long period is more likely to own; a household who plans to remain in its home over a short period is more likely to rent. The higher the covariance between the user cost of a home and that of other properties a household is likely to consider in the future, the more likely the household is to own this home. These predictions of our model find support in recent empirical studies.