Shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and the information content of stock prices

In recent years, corporate investment rate has been declining, and they have been allocating financial capital to the shadow credit market, which lead to accumulation of financial risks. Based on the annual data of non-financial listed companies from 2007 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of non-financial companies’ shadow banking on the information content of stock prices. Results show that shadow banking of non-financial enterprises reduce the information content of stock price, and the above effects are more significant in regions with lower social trust and higher policy uncertainty, private enterprises, and enterprises without political connection. Enterprises engage in shadow banking can impact idiosyncratic information content of stock price through channels of earning management, irrational investor behavior, creditor risk concerns and informed trading; Analysts over-optimism and insider trading can also have an impact on the relationship between shadow banking activities and synchronization of stock price. This paper analyzes economic consequences of non-financial enterprises’ shadow banking activities, thus providing important theoretical support and policy guidance for enhancing signal mechanism of securities market, improving capital market efficiency of resource allocation, deepening financial market-oriented reforms.     

陕西省民间资本投资银行业的发展现状及未来趋势——丝绸之路经济带战略视角

丝绸之路经济带战略的提出,为陕西省金融的开放开展带来机遇与挑战。2014年国家银监会明确了国内民营银行试点方案,表明了中央层面推动民间资本进入银行业的决心。陕西省金融资源贫乏,金融效率偏低,资金供给与需求实践中严重不匹配。陕西省民间资本活跃,但是民间资本投资银行业的状况不容乐观,民营企业一直被融资难困扰。应强化金融开放发展理念,争取陕西省政策优先权;建设"民间金融街",促进陕西省民间金融的发展,培育发展民营银行;严格准入,统筹规划民营银行的数量和规模;加强监管,完善民营资本进入银行业配套机制建设;重视金融人才的引进和培养,打造专业团队。     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

双循环格局下的竞争中性与国企改革——来自国有资本差异化功能的证据

本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型,从微观视角考察国有资本功能在国有、民营两部门中的差异,讨论"双循环"战略下如何有效配置国有资本,推动竞争中性框架的建立.研究表明:国有资本在理论上具有正向的经济效率并促进企业积极承担社会责任,但经验证据显示其经济效率偏低,且在国有和民营部门有较大差异.在国有部门中,国有资本的经济效率显...     

引导民间资本投资 化解中小企业融资难题

民间资本市场改革的实践,为民间资本公平的参与市场竞争提供了一个良好的外部环境,在一定程度上有利于民间资本积极并合理地流向中小企业。但是由于当前我国金融体制固有的缺陷和民间资本自身的局限性,导致民间资本与中小企业难以有效地结合在一起。由此,本文重点分析了民间资本的投资取向和特点,从民间资本投资的三个主要投资取向,去探究解决中小企业融资难题的方法。     

外资撤离对我国银行业的影响——以房地产市场为传导渠道

自2002年起,外资基于人民币升值及中国资产回报高的预期而不断流入我国。这些资金多数涌入了股票市场和房地产市场。自金融危机以来,外资开始有计划地撤离中国市场。对依赖于外部融资的房地产市场而言,外资的流入与流出有较大的影响力。外资通过影响房地产市场,对我国银行业也有着间接的影响。本文从以房地产市场为传导渠道的角度,对此进行了分析。     

An Analysis of the Structure of Interest Rates in Taiwan: An Application of the Vector ARIMA Model

The structure of interest rates in Taiwan is analysed through the vector ARIMA approach using monthly and quarterly data from 1978 to 1989. These rates are the regulated bank interest rate and unregulated money market interest rates in the formal financial market and the kerb rate in the informal market. The results show that the adjustments in the bank interest rate follow that of the money market interest rate. Furthermore, the time lag has been shortened from one quarter in the early stages of interest rate liberalization in Taiwan to only one month in the later stages. Increases in the money market interest rate might be followed by an increase in the kerb market interest rate because of partial market segmentation. In periods when there is excess supply of funds in the banking sector, an increase in the bank rate might be followed by a decrease of the kerb rate. The interest rates structure of Taiwan is relevant to developing countries which have an informal financial sector.     

中国私募证券基金管理者特征与绩效影响

私募证券基金在我国证券市场中的规模逐渐壮大,是提高直接融资比例和引导民间资本的可能途径。但是目前相关的量化研究较少,无法为金融监管与制度设计提供行为基础。本文以私募证券基金管理者人力资本特征作为主要切入点,建立包含组织制度因素和管理者特征差异的多因素模型来考察投资行为倾向、风险特征的综合效果。主要的发现是组织制度因素在市场环境整体表现中有助动效应以及基金管理者人力资本特征与投资绩效有显著关系。这些发现可以为面向新型金融形态的金融监管体系设计提供决策依据。     

台湾金融市场对大陆开放问题刍议

近年两岸金融交流合作取得重大进展,但因台湾对大陆开放的幅度十分有限,两岸金融往来的不平衡性不仅没有缩小反而更为扩大。推动台湾金融扩大对大陆开放有助于两岸金融往来的公平化,也将对两岸金融业与两岸经贸关系产生积极的影响。台湾应遵循ECFA达成的共识,采取逐步推进、渐进加快方式,务实有效地促进金融市场对大陆的开放。     

Regional financial technology and shadow banking activities of non-financial firms: Evidence from China

Financial technology has greatly revolutionized the finance industry. However, the impact of financial technology on the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms has not been examined. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2018, we find that regional financial technology is positively associated with the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms, which is more pronounced for firms with low profitability and firms listed only in China’s A-share market. We show that financial technology can enhance the shadow banking activities by alleviating financing constraints. In addition, an increase in the equalization of profit rate and an increase in investment in the real economy reduce the positive effect of financial technology on the shadow banking activities. Further analysis suggests that financial regulations can attenuate excessive shadow banking activities of non-financial firms driven by financial technology.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

金融市场差异与全球经济失衡

本文利用两国动态一般均衡模型对比分析了在开放经济前后两国利率、资本存量、消费和对外负债的变化,研究了封闭与开放均衡时期金融市场差异在形成两国相应经济变量数量差异过程中的作用,以及金融市场对资本跨境部门间流动和经常账户变动的影响,进而探究金融市场在全球经济失衡中的作用。研究结果表明,金融市场发展水平较高国家在提供无风险资产方面具有绝对优势,它的金融部门较生产部门对国际资本的吸引力更强,而金融市场发展水平较低的国家则恰好相反。由此,金融市场差异通过对资本的配置影响消费与投资,进而使两国经常账户顺逆有别。本文还通过将39个国家2000年后的相关数据进行面板回归分析对这一结论进行了验证。     

金融监管的资本市场风险反应及其影响研究——来自我国资本市场的证据

处于后金融危机时代,资本市场的未来发展一直受到政策制定者、监管者和投资者的关注。我国资本市场未来风险的变化将对A股市场、债券市场走势产生重大的影响,而其对金融政策的反应敏感程度更加值得研究。本文以我国股票市场1998～2011年的相关月度数据和债券市场2003～2011年的相关月度数据为研究对象,从金融监管的视角对资本市场的风险变化进行了研究。结果表明:我国资本市场风险有一定的自我调节能力,其短期波动的非均衡状态会逐渐向长期的均衡状态趋近;金融监管的改变会显著影响资本市场的风险水平,并且其影响有一定的滞后期并通常为2个月。     

浅析中国私募股权基金的发展瓶颈与治理策略

私募股权基金是一种创新型的投资工具,用于对非上市企业进行股权投资。私募股权市场已是全球资本市场的重要组成部分,私募股权基金在我国的发展尚属初级阶段,在实践与发展中存在许多问题和障碍。目前的经济形势与资本环境又给私募股权基金带来了新机遇与挑战。     

浅析中国证券市场多层次发展的逻辑思路

我国资本市场上只有上海和深圳两个交易所,上市公司类型、交易品种都很少,这远不能满足各类企业的融资需求。借鉴国外成熟的资本市场发展经验,结合我国的国情,笔者认为构建多层次的证券市场体系应包括全国性一元化的证券交易所、创业板市场、区域性证券交易市场和产权交易市场四部分。每个市场针对不同的投资者和资金需求者,安排不同的上市标准、运作模式和监管方式,这些子市场相互补充、相互竞争、相互衔接,共同构成完整统一的证券市场体系。     

中国三大都市圈利用外商直接投资的相对规模——市场经济体制转型以来的比较研究

本文采用联合国贸易和发展会议关于外商直接投资(FDI)的相对规模指标,测算了1992年我国市场经济体制转型以来,首都圈、长三角及珠三角这三大都市圈FDI流入量占固定资产形成总额的比例、FDI存量与GDP的比值、人均FDI流入量等利用FDI的相对规模水平,并与全国及世界水平进行了比较。研究表明,三大都市圈利用FDI的相对规模水平总体而言高于全国水平;以相对规模指标衡量,珠三角FDI在经济总量和投资中的地位较长三角和首都圈更为重要;与珠三角和长三角相比,首都圈FDI在其经济总量和投资中的地位尚不突出;在世界范围以人均FDI流入量考量,三大都市圈需进一步扩大利用FDI的规模。     

我国影子银行对银行业系统性风险影响研究——基于内生化房地产商的DSGE模型分析

近年来我国房价的持续上涨促使大量资金借道影子银行体系流向房地产市场,推动了金融体系内系统性风险的集聚。有鉴于此,文章构建了内生化房地产商的DSGE模型,以此探讨影子银行对银行业系统性风险的影响。实证结果表明,影子银行融资利差增大、房地产需求的扩张以及紧缩的货币政策冲击均会使商业银行资金向影子银行转移,促使融资杠杆率提升,加大银行业系统性风险;因此,目前我国稳健中性的货币政策,能够合理引导预期稳定房价,有利于防控系统性金融风险。然而,在紧缩性货币政策冲击下,商业银行贷款利率随着影子银行融资利率的下降而出现下降,说明影子银行的存在一定程度上造成了货币政策传导机制的失效。文章研究结论对引导我国影子银行健康发展、防范系统性金融风险具有重要政策启示。     

东亚金融一体化:基于资本流动的实证分析

自1997年亚洲金融危机爆生后,为了避免对外国资金的过分依赖,防止危机的再次发生,东亚各国(地区)陆续开放本国资本账户,加快区域间的资本流动以推进东亚金融一体化。本文从资本流动的角度对东亚的金融一体化程度做出分析,研究发现东亚金融一体化程度并不高,但在金融危机之后有所加强,而其中东盟是东亚各子区域中金融一体化程度最高的区域。     

论我国民营银行的开放

从我国民间资本发展的现状出发,分析了开放我国民营银行的必然性和可行性,并结合台湾地区银行民营化的实践,指出了我国民营银行在开放之初应在市场准入和银行退出机制方面有所借鉴,以促进民营银行稳健成长。