Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes, focusing on saving rates and current account balances. The econometric investigation based on the panel VAR model shows substantial demographic effects on national saving rates and current account balances in the major advanced (G-7) countries. An increase in the dependency rate significantly lowers saving rates, especially public saving rates. Further, a higher dependency rate significantly worsens current account balances.     

The ASEAN investment area,other FDI initiatives,and intra‐ASEAN foreign direct investment

The idea of establishing ASEAN as a single market and production base that will make ASEAN a dynamic and competitive location requires, among others, the free flow of investment. As part of the effort to promote regional investment, particularly intra‐ASEAN investment, several schemes have been implemented such as the 1998 Framework Agreement on the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA). This study investigated the impact of the AIA and other foreign direct investment (FDI) initiatives on intra‐ASEAN FDI. The findings on the impact of the AIA, measured via several proxies, do not provide strong evidence of benefits from the AIA, or from other investment‐promoting initiatives. With equal treatment given to non‐ASEAN investors, ASEAN members may have to provide separate incentives to enhance local entrepreneurs' competitiveness, which should in the long run be translated into higher FDI from ASEAN—either to other ASEAN members or to non‐ASEAN countries. Overall, the results do not argue wholly against the idea of the AIA, given that some of the AIA proxies have a significant impact. Moreover, it is early days yet, and a larger impact may come with time.     

外商直接投资对我国国际收支经常项目的影响研究

与资本项目相比,FDI对国际收支经常项目的影响更为曲折和复杂。本文在分析了FDI对我国国际收支经常项目影响途径的基础上,采用1983—2010年的年度数据,对FDI与我国经常项目差额进行实证分析。结果显示,FDI与我国国际收支经常项目差额之间存在正相关关系,对经常项目差额影响显著,是经常项目差额扩大的重要原因。     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Human capital,FTAs and foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN in a gravity model using the bilateral FDI data from 2000 to 2009. In particular, we study the key factors that determine the FDI flows into the region including human capital development and whether membership of a bilateral or regional trade agreement has a differential impact on FDI flows using an extended gravity model. The empirical results indicate that free trade agreements do have positive impact on FDI inflows. However, the returns on FDI inflows depend on the domestic absorptive capacity of the economy and region. It is imperative for ASEAN to align its infrastructure, human capital and technologies to provide MNCs with the necessary linkages to the global network and also to move the domestic industries seamlessly up the global production value-chain. The paper highlights that this is crucial for deeper ASEAN integration and for sustainable growth in the region.     

Spillover across sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies

This study employs the VAR-MGARCH model to investigate the spillover across the sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies. The empirical results confirm the unidirectional spillover in bond return from the US to ASEAN4, while there is a bidirectional influence in volatility. Additionally, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) analysis is employed to depict the changing correlation in volatility. The empirical results also show that the yields of ASEAN4 bonds increase with emerging market risks, and the exchange rate can act as a buffer to reduce spillover. Given that ASEAN4 governments have issued a large number of government bonds to finance their large fiscal spending during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the return and volatility spillovers from the US to ASEAN4 could be important factors to consider when the US unwinds its unconventional monetary policy and normalizes its interest rates in the medium to long term.     

Productivity,investment, and current accounts: Reassessing the evidence

Review of World Economics - The most widely accepted explanation for the inverse association between private investments and current accounts (Glick and Rogoff 1995) rests on data for manufactures...     

Structural and cyclical movements of the current account in Japan: An alternative measure

The purpose of this study is to analyze fluctuations in the current account in Japan by deconstructing structural and non-structural components with a new method. The study shows that at the beginning of the 1980's, most components of the current account in Japan were structural. After the Plaza agreement in 1985, however, Japan's structural current account sharply decreased. Since the end of 1990s, the structural components increased again and reached nearly 2% of GDP and these movements are generally associated with the structural components of equipment investment. Business fluctuations in Japan and world, especially in the U.S. play an important role in the non-structural current account. Cyclical movements of the current account are remarkable because they include periods of recession, and this tendency was notable in the 1990s.     

Oil price shocks and the current account: An analysis of short run adjustment measures

Zusammenfassung ?lpreisschocks und Leistungsbilanz: Eine Analyse der kurzfristigen AnpassungsmaΒnahmen. — Der Aufsatz befa?t sich mit einer groΒen Gruppe von Entwicklungsl?ndern, die kein Roh?l f?rdern und die zur Finanzierung ihrer Leistungsbilanzdefizite haupts?chlich auf internationale Beh?rden oder eigene Reserven angewiesen sind. Unglücklicherweise hatten viele dieser L?nder bereits eine schwache Reserveposition, als die letzte Welle von ?lpreiserh?hungen begann, was auf den ?lpreisschock von 1973/74 und die anschlieΒende weltweite Rezession zurückzuführen ist. Deshalb verwenden wir hier ein Modell, in dem keine Kapitalmobilit?t, aber feste Wechselkurse vorausgesetzt werden. AuΒerdem wird angenommen, daΒ das betreffende Land für importierte Fertigwaren Preisnehmer ist, dagegen auf seinem Exportmarkt eine gewisse Monopolstellung besitzt. Untersucht werden die Auswirkungen eines ?lpreisschocks auf Produktion, Preise, Investitionen und Leistungsbilanz, auΒerdem verschiedene MaΒnahmen zur Anpassung der Leistungsbilanz (Geld-, Wechselkurs- und Handelspolitik) sowohl unter der Annahme flexibler als auch starrer Reall?hne.

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Résumé Chocs de prix pétrolier et la balance des paiements courants: une analyse des mesures d’ajustements à court terme. — L’article s’occupe d’un grand nombre des PVD non-pétrole qui principalement dépendent d’agences officielles ou de leurs réserves comme source de financer des déficits dans leurs balances des paiements courants. Malheureusement, beaucoup de ces pays avaient eu peu de réserves au commencement de la période récente des chocs de prix pétrolier comme résultat des événements de 1973/74 et de la suivante récession mondiale. En conséquence, l’auteur ne suppose aucune mobilité de capital, mais un régime des taux de change fixes. Il suppose de plus que le pays ne peut pas influencer le prix pour les produits finis importés, mais qu’il a quelque pouvoir de monopole sur ses marchés d’exportations. Les conséquences directes d’un choc de prix pétrolier sur la production, les prix, l’investissement et la balance des paiements courants sont analysés aussi bien que plusieurs mesures d’ajuster cette balance (la politique monétaire et commerciale et la politique du taux de change) en supposant que des salaires réels soient flexibles ou rigides.

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Resumen Shocks de precios del petroleo y la cuenta corriente: un análisis de medidas de ajuste de corto plazo. — El artfculo se ocupa de un amplio grupo de paises en desarrollo no productores de petróleo que dependen de agencias oficiales o rèservas propias como fuente de financiamiento para dèficits de cuenta corriente. Desafortunadamente, muchos de estos paises ingresaron al periodo corriente de shocks del petroleo con una dèbil posici?n de rèservas, como resultado de los acontecimientos de 1973/74 y la recesión mundial sobreviniente. Por lo tanto, en el modelo nosotros suponemos que no hay movilidad de capital, pero un règimen cambiario fijo, y que el pais adopta los precios en el mercado de bienes finales importados, pero tiene algún poder monopólico en su mercado de exportación. Se analizan los efectos de impacto de un shock del petróleo sobre el producto, precios, inversiones y cuenta corriente como tambièn varias medidas de ajuste de cuenta corriente (politica monetaria, politica cambiaria y polftica comercial) bajo el supuesto de salarios reaies flexibles y rigidos.

     

Exchange rate shocks and the current account under monopolistic competition: An intertemporal optimization model

This paper examines the current-account effect of a devaluation in a Chamberlinian model where both saving and investment are based on intertemporal optimization. It shows that devaluation tends to deteriorate the current account along the time horizon, leading to a reduction of the stock of foreign assets permanently. In contrast to recent work, these real effects do not rely on short-run disequilibrium in the goods or labor market. Besides, a temporary devaluation may generate hysteresis effects on both micro- and macro-economic aspects of a small economy.     

“十一五”期间广东省旅游投资特征分析与“十二五”旅游投资展望

在过去的5年中,广东省旅游投资出现了前所未有高潮,分析过去五年的特征,把握下一个5年的旅游投资项目走势,对广东旅游投资具有重要意义。本文通过对过去5年广东省300多个投资项目的总结分析,认为过去5年中广东旅游投资规模不断增大,空间不断集聚、主题不断突出,并逐渐向休闲度假项目类型转变,向综合性大型项目转变。作者还认为在未来5年中,这一特点将继续加强。     

中国和东盟五国高新技术产业竞争力动态分析

本文在分析中国和东盟五国高新技术产业状况的基础上,利用因子分析方法对这些国家的高技术水平变动趋势进行动态研究,并根据模型的弹性值进一步分析五国的竞争力水平的来源、特点和对影响因素的敏感程度。     

The relationship between national saving and domestic investment in economy of Iran

In this paper, the relationship between national savings and domestic investment is examined in order to determine the degree of international capital mobility in Iran＇s economy over the sample period （1959-2007）. To this end, first the savings and investment correlation as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka was revisited using the recently developed bound testing approach （ARDL）. Amongst the key results, was a significant and robust positive association between the ratio of gross domestic investment to gross domestic product and the ratio of national savings to gross domestic product. Next, the coefficient of ECM derived from the ARDL test showed that the speed of adjustment in the estimated models was relatively high and has the expected significant and negative sign. The results indicate that deviation from the long-term path was corrected by approximately 63 percent over the following year. In addition, the savings-investment correlation relationship is examined in terms of an error correction model in order to gain some insight into the degree of capital mobility. The results show that savings and investment are to a great extent co-integrated. In other words, there is a significant long-run relationship between savings and investment in the Iranian economy. Also, the long-run relationship between these variables shows a low degree of capital mobility in Iran, because government policies have had no considerable effect on the savings-investment gap in Iran. The empirical findings suggest that liberalizing both the exchange rate system and interest rates and facilitating capital flow would increase international capital mobility.     

Macro-economic determinants of Australia’s current account, 1977–1986

Zusammenfassung Makro?konomische Bestimmungsgründe für Australiens Zahlungsbilanz 1977–1986. - In dieser Studie wird versucht, die wichtigsten makro?konomischen Bestimmungsgründe für Australiens Zahlungsbilanzdefizit w?hrend der Periode des Crawlingpeg und der floatenden Wechselkurse zwischen 1977 und 1986 zu ermitteln. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, da▾ trotz ziemlich schneller Anpassung (worauf die geringe Diskrepanz zwischen den Koeffizienten im Ungleichgewichts- und im Gleichgewichtsmodell hindeuten) ein fundamentales Ungleichgewicht in Australiens Zahlungsbilanz besteht, das haupts?chlich vom Terms-of-trade-Schock und vom internen Schock gro▾er Staatsausgaben herrührt. Auch unter dem Regime flexibler Wechselkurse trugen weder die realen Wechselkurse noch die realen Zinsen in statistisch signifikanter Weise zur Erkl?rung des Defizits bei. Ein auf mittlere Sicht haltbares Zahlungsbilanzziel l?▾t sich erreichen, wenn die Industrie umstrukturiert wird und Arbeitsmarktrigidit?ten beseitigt werden, die mit floatenden Wechselkursen unvereinbar sind.

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Résumé Macro-déterminants du compte courant de l’Australie en 1977–1986. - Dans cet article une taxonomie des déterminants principaux macro-économiques du déficit en compte courant de l’Australie pendant le régime de “crawling peg” et de taux de change flottant entre 1977 et 1986 est essayée. Les résultats empiriques révèlent qu’en dépit d’un ajustement assez rapide - comme suggéré par la petite différence entre les coéfficients du modèle déséquilibre et équilibre — un déséquilibre fondamental reste dans le compte courant de l’Australie qui résulte principalement du choc en termes d’échange et du choc interne des grandes dépenses gouvernementales. En dépit du régime de taux de change flexible ni le taux de change réel ni le taux d’intérêt réel ne peuvent pas expliquer le déficit statistiquement significativement. La réalisation d’un but de compte courant soutenable en terme moyen est prévue s’il y a une restructuration de l’industrie et une réduction des rigidités sur le marché de main d’oeuvre qui ne sont pas compatibles avec le régime de taux de change flottant.

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Resumen Determinantes macroeconómicos de la cuenta corriente de Australia (1977–1986). - En este trabajo se intenta realizar una taxonomía de las determinantes macroeconómicas más importantes del déficit de cuenta corriente de Australia durante el régimen de cambio de “crawling peg” y flotante en la década 1977–1986. Los resultados empíricos revelan que a pesar de un ajuste bastante rápido, sugerido por la peque?a discrepancia entre los coeficientes del modelo de desequilibrio y de equilibrio, aún persiste en Australia un desequilibrio fundamental en el déficit de la cuenta corriente que tiene su origen especialmente en el shock externo de términos de intercambio y en el shock interno proveniente del alto gasto público. A pesar del régimen de cambio flexible ni la tasa de cambio real ni la tasa de interés real resultaron ser determinantes del déficit estadísticamente significantes. La realización de una meta de cuenta corriente sostenible en el mediano plazo dependerá de la reestructuración industrial y de la superación de las rigideces del mercado laboral que son incongruentes con el régimen de tasa de cambio flotante.

     

Financial counterparts of saving and investment and inconsistency in some simple macro models

Zusammenfassung Die finanziellen Aspekte von Sparen und Investieren und die Inkonsistenz einiger einfacher Makro-Modelle. — Ein System, in dem die finanziellen Aspekte der effektiven Nachfrage explizit gemacht werden, wird entwickelt und als Grundlage für die Kritik einiger gebr?uchlicher statischer MakroModelle verwendet: des IS-LM-Modells, des Modells, das die permanente Einkommenshypothese benutzt, und eines Modells, das eine Ersparnis-Verm?gensrelation enth?lt. Diese kritische Würdigung zeigt, da\, wenn die Finanzen ausdrücklich in die Betrachtung einbezogen werden, die Modelle dynamisch sind und die ?Gleichgewichtsl?sung? nur für einen Zeitpunkt gilt. Au\erdem führen die Interdependenzen, die durch die Einbeziehung der finanziellen Aspekte geschaffen werden, zu unannehmbaren Nachfragefunktionen auf dem Markt, der unter Berufung auf das Walrassche Gesetz au\er Betracht blieb. Es wird gezeigt, da\ diese Probleme nicht bei solchen Modellen auftreten, die nur die Anteile der verschiedenen Formen der Verm?genshaltung am Gesamtverm?gen bestimmen wollen und nicht sein absolutes Niveau. Sie fehlen auch bei einem Modell, das auf dem Prinzip der Bestandsanpassung basiert, in dem also Stromgr?\en direkt auf Bestandsungleichgewichte zurückgeführt werden.

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Résumé Les contreparties financières de l’épargne et de l’investissement et l’incontinence dans quelques modèles macro-économiques. — Un système qui éclaircit bien l’aspect financier de la demande effective est développé et employé comme fondament de quelques modèles statiques et macro-économiques en usage commun: les modèles SI-LM et de revenu permanent et, en outre, un modèle qui incorpore la relation entre l’épargne et la fortune. L’appréciation critique montre que les modèles sont dynamiques et que la solution d’équilibre n’est valable que pour un moment si les finances sont considérées expressément. En outre, les interdépendances créées par l’inclusion des finances conduisent aux fonctions de la demande inacceptables sur le marché qui fut omi en se référant à la loi de Walras. Il est montré que ces problèmes n’apparaissent pas aux modèles qui déterminent seulement la relation entre les actifs différents et pas leurs niveaux absolus. Ils manquent aussi dans un modèle dérivé du principe d’ajustement des stocks, dans lequel les flux sont rapportés directement aux déséquilibres des stocks.

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Resumen La concordancia financiera del ahorro y la inversión y su divergencia en modelos macroeconómicos simples. — El autor elabora un sistema que incluye la parte financiera de la demanda efectiva y que se utiliza como base para algunos modelos macroeconómicos estáticos y comunes, como lo son por ejemplo los modelos IS-LM, los modelos del ingreso permanente y un modelo que incluye la relación entre ahorros y patrimonio. La evaluación crftica demuestra que los modelos son dinámicos y que la ?solución de equilibrio? sólo vale para un breve momento, si se tienen en cuenta explicitamente los aspectos financieros. Además, las interdependencias que resultan de la inclusión de las finanzas originan funciones de demanda inadmisibles en el mercado, del cual se hizo caso omiso invocando la ley walrasiana. El autor demuestra que estos problemas no surgen en modelos que únicamente determinan la relación entre las distintas formas en que se tiene el partimonio, y no sus valores absolutos. Tampoco surgen en un modelo que se deriva del ?stock adjustment principle? y en el que ingresos se aplican directamente a los desequilibrios de existencias.

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Riassunto Corrispondenze finanziarie di risparmio ed investimenti e la loro non concordanza in alcuni macro-modelli semplici. — Viene sviluppato un sistema che chiarisce in pieno l’aspetto fmanziario della domanda effettiva e viene impiegato come base per un macro-modello statico di uso generale, cioè per i modelli IS-LM, per permanenti modelli di reddito e per un modello che includa il rapporto risparmiopatrimonio. Questo apprezzamento critico mostra che i modelli sono dinamici e che la ?soluzione di equilibrio? è valida solo per un breve momento, se le finanze sono espressamente comprese nella considerazione. Inoltre le interdipendenze, che sono create mediante le inclusioni delle finanze, conducono, a causa dell’inosservanza della legge di Walras, ad inaccettabili funzioni di domanda sul mercato. Viene mostrato che questi problemi non compaiono in modelli che determinano soltanto il rapporto del patrimonio tenuto in diverse forme e non i suoi livelli assoluti. Essi mancano anche in un modello che è derivato dal principio di ?adattamento delle scorte? (?stock adjustment?-principle) in cui gli afflussi vengono riferiti direttamente agli squilibri di scorte.

     

Re-examining foreign direct investment,exports, and economic growth in asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration

This paper examines whether there is a long-run relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and gross domestic product (GDP) in selected Asian economies. We use a newly developed cointegration test, the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to examine this long-run relationship. The motivation for using the bootstrap methodology is to generate and apply critical values for the ARDL test that are valid and appropriate for the specific data sets used. Further, the bootstrap tests allow for endogeneity and feedback that may exist. Pesaran et al. (2001) highlighted the possibility of degenerate cases, but empirical studies in general ignore these and may conclude that cointegration exists when it does not. Our tests fail to find evidence of cointegration when GDP is the dependent variable. The absence of a long-run forcing relation from FDI and exports to GDP implies that FDI and exports were not the sole sources of economic growth in our selected Asian economies.     

东盟五国航空业之间的竞争及其启示

近年来,随着全球经济发展减缓、恐怖主义和SARS的消极影响,世界航空业陷入了前所未有的困境,东盟五国的航空业也不例外,例如在世界航空业中占有一席之地的新加坡航空业在2003年遭受了首次亏损的空前打击。面对日益严峻的新形势,东盟五国(新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印尼和菲律宾)纷纷采取各项措施,积极参与航空业的竞争。本文着重分析了近期东盟五国航空业之间的激烈竞争情况,并据此提出了对世界航空业的几点启示。     

Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging markets. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining different current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia. We find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. The degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs as well as the extent of reserve accumulation are found to be the most significant factors to explain divergent current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia.