Review of Financial Reporting and Global Capital Markets: A History of the International Accounting Standards Committee, 1973–2000

This review of K. Camfferman and S. A. Zeff, Financial Reporting and Global Capital Markets: A History of the International Accounting Standards Committee, 1973–2000 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007) provides an overview of the work, comments on the authors' approach to the history of the IASC, and comments on the book's contribution to our understanding of the IASC and its place in global financial governance.     

Stochastic volatility,power laws and long memory

Benoit B Mandelbrot comments on the paper by Blake LeBaron, on page 621 of this issue, by tracing the merits and pitfalls of power-law scaling models from antiquity to the present.     

A guide for the perplexed quant

Quantitative financial modelling seems to employ both the language and techniques of physics, but how similar are the two disciplines? Emanuel Derman comments on the practice of financial modelling and the environment in which it is done.     

Power laws and long memory

Thomas Lux comments on the paper by Blake LeBaron, on page 621 of this issue, by recalling related findings of spurious scaling properties and questions whether we can distinguish between true and spurious scaling laws in finite data series.     

Science vs. fear: the Ebola quarantine debate as a case study that reveals how the public perceives risk

This study focuses on newspaper coverage of the Hickox quarantine incident, using it as a case study to examine how the media characterized the spread of disease in an ongoing crisis situation characterized by uncertainty. The study builds on Slovic et al.’s research, who argue that risk perception is comprised of both emotional and analytical aspects. We employed a qualitative approach, first examining articles on Hickox’s story in The New York Times and New York Daily News between October 25 and 31, 2014; and second, readers’ comments in response to these articles. The findings from the newspaper articles show that in their treatment of the quarantine debate, the media did not address the issue of uncertainty, and thus continued the health authorities’ neglect of this issue. Although the media gave expression to various sides of the debate, it emphasized those who objected to the quarantine policy, thus raising the claim that the conflict was between ‘science’ and the public’s ‘irrational fears,’ and that the governors decided on quarantine in response to the public’s panic and fears. From our analysis of readers’ comments, it appears that these claims are unjustified. First, we found that the public did not speak in a single unified voice, but rather, was divided into supporters and opponents of quarantine. Both sides used scientific arguments and resorted to similar terminology, and tended to cite and present studies backing their arguments. As for irrational fears, although quarantine supporters expressed emotions, they indicated mainly concerns, not panic or hysteria.     

Tehran stock exchange prediction using sentiment analysis of online textual opinions

We investigate the impact of social media data in predicting the Tehran Stock Exchange variables for the first time. We consider the closing price and daily return of three different stocks for this investigation. We collected our social media data from Sahamyab.com/stocktwits for about 3 months. To extract information from online comments, we propose a hybrid sentiment analysis approach that combines lexicon‐based and learning‐based methods. Since lexicons that are available for the Persian language are not practical for sentiment analysis in the stock market domain, we built a particular sentiment lexicon for this domain. After designing and calculating daily sentiment indices using the sentiment of the comments, we examine their impact on the baseline models that only use historical market data and propose new predictor models using multi‐regression analysis. In addition to the sentiments, we also examine the comments volume and the users' reliabilities. We conclude that the predictability of various stocks in the Tehran Stock Exchange is different depending on their attributes. Moreover, we indicate that only comments volume could be useful for predicting the closing price, and both the volume and the sentiment of the comments could be useful for predicting the daily return. We demonstrate that users' trust coefficients have different behaviours toward the three stocks.     

Discussion of ‘Strategic pricing by Big 4 audit firms in private client segments’

This article discusses the paper by Dutillieux et al., (2013). The comments are in four main areas, regarding the importance of the research question, the setting in which the study is located, the theoretical development of the study and some thoughts regarding both supply‐ and demand‐side considerations around auditor change.     

Auditing government revenues in Iraq

This article looks at the sources of government revenue in Iraq. It shows the level of the country's dependency on oil revenues and highlights the consequent need to diversify government revenue sources and move to a more stable situation, which is appropriate for a developing country. The study comments on the role of auditing to secure the revenue streams and minimize opportunities for corruption.     

Convergence of utility functions and convergence of optimal strategies

In this paper we study the stability (in the L ^p as well as for the almost sure convergence sense) of the optimal investment-consumption strategy with respect to the choice of the utility function.Received: February 2003, The authors want to thank an anonymous referee as well as an associate editor for their useful comments and suggestions (in particular, the development on the speed of convergence). The authors also thank R. A. Dana for helpful discussions and W. Schachermayer for careful reading.     

Ten Years of IFRS: Practitioners’ Comments and Suggestions for Research

A growing body of research is evaluating the widespread adoption of IFRS. The aim of this paper is to link the findings of academic research with feedback from practitioners about whether the hoped‐for benefits of adoption are being realised. In addition, we present comments from practitioners about IFRS research and we identify areas that may be usefully explored in future research. Our review complements the papers included in part one of this forum (Australian Accounting Review, September 2012), which describe events in the development of global standards over the last 10 years.     

A note on the no arbitrage condition for international financial markets

We consider an international financial market model that consists ofN currencies. The purpose is to derive a no arbitrage condition which is not affected by the choice of numéraire between theN currencies. As a result, we show that a finiteness condition for an arbitrary chosen currency and the no arbitrage condition for the basket currency are necessary and sufficient for the no arbitrage property of all theN currencies. Research supported in part by Nomura Foundation for Social Science and by the European Community Stimulation Plan for Economic Science contract Number SPES-CT91-0089. The authors thank an anonymous FEJM referee for helpful comments.     

Do lack of transparency and enforcement undermine international risk-sharing?

This paper studies the extent to which poor institutions compromise risk-sharing. We model a multilateral organization as a social contract that provides insurance to members. Countries privately observe the realization of a performance variable with a verification cost that differs across countries, reflecting the “transparency” of institutions. When the level of transparency is exogenous, the optimal contract provides complete expected risk sharing across countries and states. Poor transparency and enforcement reduce consumption and result in insurance rationing. When a country can increase transparency endogenously, this generates an externality and moral hazard. We first characterize the outcome when the multilateral agency can influence members’ institutions by choosing the countries’ level of effort. Next we derive a tax/subsidy scheme that can induce countries to choose the socially optimal level. JEL Classification Numbers D8, F3 We are grateful to Biung-Ghi Ju, Ted Juhl, Donald Lien, Joseph Sicilian and Jianbo Zhang for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for comments that improved the paper substantially.     

Wisdom of Crowds: Cross‐Sectional Variation in the Informativeness of Third‐Party‐Generated Product Information on Twitter

This paper examines whether third‐party‐generated product information on Twitter, once aggregated at the firm level, is predictive of firm‐level sales, and if so, what factors determine the cross‐sectional variation in the predictive power. First, the predictive power of Twitter comments increases with the extent to which they fairly represent the broad customer response to products and brands. The predictive power is greater for firms whose major customers are consumers rather than businesses. Second, the word‐of‐mouth effect of Twitter comments is greater when advertising is limited. Third, a detailed analysis of the identity of the tweet handles provides the additional insights that the predictive power of the volume of Twitter comments is dominated by “the wisdom of crowds,” whereas the predictive power of the valence of Twitter comments is largely attributable to expert comments. Furthermore, Twitter comments not only reflect upcoming sales, but also capture an unexpected component of sales growth.     

Defining and achieving financial stability

We discuss the thorny issue of how to define financial stability, and conclude that the best approach is to define the characteristics of an episode of financial instability, and to define financial stability as a state of affairs in which episodes of instability are unlikely to occur. We then discuss public policies to achieve financial stability, distinguishing between preventive and remedial measures, and explore the costs and benefits of such policies. We conclude with some comments on current issues in financial regulation, including Basel 2.     

Discussion of “economic analysis of accountants’ ethical standards: the case of audit opinion shopping”

In his paper, Cushing (Cushing, B.E., (1999). Economics analysis of accountants’ ethical standards: The case of audit opinion shopping. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 18 (4/5)) argues for an increasing role of “laissez-faire” approaches to professional accounting ethics. To formally present his argument, Cushing (1999) employs a classic auditor–client dispute over a financial reporting issue; the dispute’s resolution is framed within a prisoner’s dilemma game. Three increasingly sophisticated models are used to examine both strict (explicit rules and monitoring) and laissez-faire (moral training and leadership) approaches to induce ethical auditor play within the prisoner’s dilemma game.My comments are an effort to consider if Cushing's (1999) arguments for a laissez-faire approach are practicable. To do this I first relate Cushing's (1999) arguments to the theoretical attributes of a profession. Second, I extend his arguments to include ethical disposition. Two bases of ethical disposition are discussed, moral reasoning theory and the persona of individuals. I conclude that a movement toward a laissez-faire approach to ethics is a strategy the profession should not ignore.     

After Dawson

At the first residential conference of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which was held at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford, in September 1983, Mr Stewart Bates, QC, spoke on the implications of the decision of the House of Lords in the case of W. T. Ramsay Ltd v CIR. A report of those proceedings was held over until the decision of the House of Lords in the case of Furniss, v Dawson was known. The following report is based upon Mr Bates' address and the comments of Mr Stephen Oliver, QC, Mr John Avery Jones and Mr Adrian Shipwright who spoke at a lunchtime seminar convened by the IFS on 9 March 1984 to consider the decision in Furniss v Dawson. This report does not reflect the opinions of the IFS, which has no corporate views.     

Modelling non-linearity in economic classification with neural networks

In this paper results are presented of a study on economic classification with neural networks. Comparison is made between neural networks and linear modelling techniques and, in particular, comments are made on the problem of overfitting and the estimation of prediction errors in cases where the available data sets are relatively small. It is shown that selecting network parameters by k-fold cross-validation and weight decay training are effective remedies for these phenomena. The conclusions are illustrated in two cases: predicting the volume of the mortgage market in the Netherlands and the classification of bond ratings. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Liquidity and market incompleteness

This note shows that according to Lippman and McCall’s (Am Econ Rev 76, 43–55, 1986) operational definition of liquidity, incomplete markets are a necessary condition for illiquidity. This note is a revised subset of a larger paper that circulated under the name of “Liquidity as an Insurance Problem” (Zurita 2001). I am grateful to Luis Ahumada, David K. Levine, Raimundo Soto, Gert Wagner, Federico Weinschelbaum and seminar participants at UCLA, Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Banco Central de Chile, LACEA, Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay, and ILADES, for their helpful comments, as well as the feedback of an anonymous referee. Financial support from Vicerrectoría Académica de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile is gratefully acknowledged.     

Maturity cycles in implied volatility

The skew effect in market implied volatility can be reproduced by option pricing theory based on stochastic volatility models for the price of the underlying asset. Here we study the performance of the calibration of the S&P 500 implied volatility surface using the asymptotic pricing theory under fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility described in [8]. The time-variation of the fitted skew-slope parameter shows a periodic behaviour that depends on the option maturity dates in the future, which are known in advance. By extending the mathematical analysis to incorporate model parameters which are time-varying, we show this behaviour can be explained in a manner consistent with a large model class for the underlying price dynamics with time-periodic volatility coefficients.Received: December 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B70, 60F05, 60H30JEL Classification: C13, G13Jean-Pierre Fouque: Work partially supported by NSF grant DMS-0071744.Ronnie Sircar: Work supported by NSF grant DMS-0090067. We are grateful to Peter Thurston for research assistance.We thank a referee for his/her comments which improved the paper.     

The ASB's Exposure Draft Statement of Principles: A Comment

This paper is based on a shorter comment sent to the Accounting Standards Board in response to the request for comments on the exposure draft, Statement of Principles for Financial Reporting. It is intended to be a comprehensive dissent from that ED, and also to suggest an alternative course of action for the ASB. In the first place, the ASB's position, according to which the provision of more fair value accounting (FVA)-based information is a central plank among its principles, is contested on the grounds of both (a) market incompleteness (entailing limited availability of reliable FVA-based information) and (b) lack of evidence of demand on the part of financial statement users for FVA-based information. In the second place, the ASB's approach to issues of recognition is subjected to critical analysis and found to be inadequate. Finally, the ASB's decision that the essential function of its Statement of Principles should be to advocate a set of recognition rules and measurement bases (including some that are controversial) is contested. Instead, it is proposed that the Statement of Principles should incorporate a larger framework, including a set of procedural principles, according to which the Board would reach conclusions on the various issues with which it has to deal, so that its conclusions would be seen to be authoritative because they had been reached by a process of rigorous enquiry in accordance with appropriate procedures. These principles would incorporate Rawls' (1971) notions of reflective equilibrium and procedural justice.