A Note on the Determinants of the Outcomes of Bankruptcy Petitions: Evidence From Korea

This study provides evidence on the determinants of the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions using Korean firms for the period from 1977 to 1994. We hypothesize that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, longer existing period, larger size, lower operating risk, and more goodwill would have higher survival prospects from the bankruptcy petition. The results from logit estimation confirm this hypothesis. The free assets, existing period, firm size, and goodwill have positive influence on the probability of reorganization, while the liquid assets, and operating risk are negatively related to the probability of reorganization. Among these variables, the free assets percentage is the most significant at the one percent level in determining the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions. This reveals that a bankrupt firm with more free assets tends to be reorganized because it would be easy to obtain additional financing needed for the successful reorganization. The liquid assets and existing period are also significant at the five percent level. We conclude that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, and longer existing period would have higher survival prospects in Korea.     

The Accuracy and Incremental Information Content of Audit Reports in Predicting Bankruptcy

A series of corporate failures in which auditors failed to warn about impending bankruptcy led to widespread criticism of the UK auditing profession during the last recession. For a sample of 976 quoted companies (1987–94), this paper shows that there are two reasons why audit reports were not accurate or informative indicators of bankruptcy. First, audit reports poorly reflected publicly available information about the probability of bankruptcy. Secondly, strong persistence in audit reporting reduced the accuracy of audit reports     

The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate potential problems associated with the use of bankruptcy prediction models in current research. The tests in this study demonstrate the problems that may arise when bankruptcy prediction models are inappropriately applied. This analysis evaluated the Zmijewski (1984) and Ohlson (1980) models using time periods, industries, and financial distress situations other than those used to originally develop the models. The findings indicated that both models were sensitive to time periods. That is, the accuracy of the models declined when applied to time periods different from those used to develop the models. The findings also suggest that the accuracy of each model continues to decline moving from the 1988–1991 to the 1992–1999 sample period. Additionally, Ohlson's (Zmijewski's) model was (was not) sensitive to industry classifications. The findings of this study also suggest that the Ohlson and Zmijewski models are not sensitive to financial distress situations other than those used to develop the models. Thus, the models appear to be more generally useful for predicting financial distress, not just bankruptcy.In sum, the results of this study suggest that researchers should use bankruptcy prediction models cautiously. Applying the models to time periods and industries other than those used to develop the models may result in a significant decline in the models' accuracies. Additionally, some bankruptcy prediction models may be more appropriate for evaluating various forms of financial distress as opposed to just bankruptcy. To avoid erroneous applications of bankruptcy prediction models in the future, it is necessary for researchers not only to understand the uses of prediction models, but also to understand the limitations of the models.     

中国民营上市公司债务融资破产威胁功效的实证研究

以2002～2007年陷入财务危机的民营上市公司（ST公司）为研究样本．通过相关分析实证检验了中国债务融资的破产威胁功效.研究发现,中国民营上市公司债务融资总体上对财务状况恶劣的公司起到了债务治理作用,发挥了破产威胁功效。短期债务能够对陷入财务危机的民营上市公司起到改善业绩的作用,较好地发挥破产威胁功效,而长期债务未能发挥破产威胁作用。银行贷款能够促进陷入财务困境的民营上市公司改善业绩,发挥破产威胁功效,而商业信用却没能发挥破产威胁功效。     

Earnings Retention as a Specification Mechanism in Logistic Bankruptcy Models: A Test of the Free Cash Flow Theory

This paper explores the applicability of as a specification mechanism to improve forecasting methods in corporate bankruptcy. The study combines lessons from Jensen's Free Cash Flow Theory with a logisitic model of bankruptcy to improve forecasting accuracy. The model uses data from the Indian textile industry to show that data classification based on investment opportunities is yet another way of improving precision. The study also re-examines the Free Cash Flow Theory and concludes that in applying it to a bankruptcy scenario, its initial findings regarding retention policy hold true; that is, low growth firms should retain less of their earnings than their high growth counterparts.     

Reporting Discretion and the Choice of Fresh Start Values in Companies Emerging from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Using a sample of seventy-two firms that adopted fresh start reporting upon their emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, I test whether management estimates of fresh start equity values are misstated and whether such misstatements are related to characteristics of individual firms' bankruptcy process. I predict that the reported fresh start value reflects a tension between managerial incentives to promote the acceptance of the plan of reorganization, and incentives to enhance future reported performance. I test whether the tendency to overstate the fresh start equity value is increasing in factors affecting the acceptance of the reorganization plan (i.e., bankruptcy claimants' relative bargaining power) and decreasing in factors affecting postbankruptcy reported performance (i.e., the probability of future losses). I find that, relative to the market value of equity immediately after emergence from Chapter 11, the fresh start equity value is, on average, understated by about 4%. The difference between the fresh start equity value and market value also exhibits significant cross-sectional variation (an average absolute error of 11%). Consistent with my first prediction, the misstatement is increasing in the relative bargaining power of junior claimants. In contrast to my second prediction, the misstatement is also increasing in the likelihood of future reported losses. This result suggests that firms that are more likely to experience postbankruptcy financial distress are more concerned with obtaining acceptance for their plan than with the effects of the fresh start equity value on postbankruptcy performance. Finally, I document that the misstatement in the fresh start equity value is negatively related to whether firms have undergone prepackaged bankruptcies, and positively related to replacement of a prebankruptcy CEO.     

Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model

In recent studies, Jones and Hensher (2004 , 2005) provide an illustration of the usefulness of advanced probability modelling in the prediction of corporate bankruptcies, insolvencies and takeovers. Mixed logit (or random parameter logit) is the most general of these models and appears to have the greatest promise in terms of underlying behavioural realism, desirable econometric properties and overall predictive performance. It suggests a number of empirical considerations relevant to harnessing the maximum potential from this new model (as well as avoiding some of the more obvious pitfalls associated with its use). Using a three-state failure model, the unconditional triangular distribution for random parameters offers the best population-level predictive performance on a hold-out sample. Further, the optimal performance for a mixed logit model arises when a weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood (WESML) technique is applied in model estimation. Finally, we suggest an approach for testing the stability of mixed logit models by re-estimating a selected model using varying numbers of Halton intelligent draws. Our results have broad application to users seeking to apply more accurate and reliable forecasting methodologies to explain and predict sources of firm financial distress better.     

The Impact of Receiving Debtor-in-Possession Financing on the Probability of Successful Emergence and Time Spent Under Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

The ability to obtain financing is a critical element in attempting to successfully reorganise a firm which has declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing has become an increasingly popular method in recent years. This paper examines whether receiving DIP financing is related to successful reorganisations and a shortened duration under Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. This study finds that there is an increase in realised returns to equity at the announcement of DIP loan agreements which is positive and statistically significant. It is also found that DIP-financed firms have a reduced probability of liquidation, and shorter time spent under bankruptcy proceedings.     

计量经济学发展史中的经济周期研究

本文考察了自20世纪50年代以来计量经济学在经济周期研究方面近四十年的发展历程。文章指出,随着时序统计方法的引入和推广,传统的NBER经济周期分析方法与H-CC(Haavelmo-Cowles Commission)方法逐步融合,并成为经济周期研究的主要手段。鉴于计量模型在预测经济衰退时表现仍欠佳,文章对这种融合从方法论上做了批判性的评价。     

Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note

The predictability of stock returns is often assessed using classical statistical significance from predictive regressions. Statistical inference, however, can belie the economic importance with which investors regard various predictors. This paper examines the influence that predictors have on an investor's optimal portfolio allocations. The results show that return predictability is sufficient to induce horizon effects in optimal allocations. After incorporating estimation risk, however, little evidence of predictability remains. We also assess the relative importance of three predictor variables. While dividend yield is the most important predictor, optimal allocations are also sensitive to the term spread and the relative bill rate.     

The Impact of SFAS No. 14 Segment Information on Price Variability and Earnings Forecast Accuracy

This study provides empirical evidence on the economic effects of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 14 segment disclosures. Required disclosures under this standard subsume those of the Securities and Exchange Commission' (SEC) 1970 line-of-business disclosure rule both in terms of the variables to be disclosed and the degree of decomposition of the consolidated information. Consequently, this study hypothesizes that stock price variability will be greater at the time of, and security analysts' earnings forecasts more accurate following, release of these disclosures. The results of the empirical analysis support these hypotheses. They indicate that SFAS No. 14 segment disclosures convey incremental information over previously reported SEC line-of-business information that is relevant to stockholders and to security analysts.     

The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure on the Relevance of Conference Calls to Financial Analysts

This study examines the effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on the relevance of company-sponsored conference calls. Measuring relevance by a conference call's ability to improve analyst forecast accuracy and consensus, I find larger improvements in both variables during the period surrounding conference calls in the post-FD era versus the pre-FD era. These findings imply that in the post-FD era relatively more about a firm's upcoming earnings becomes known during conference calls, consistent with FD's success in eliminating selective disclosure.     

An examination of the relative economic efficiency of mutual vs. stock savings institutions

This article employs a nonlinear system of Cobb-Douglas profit and input demand equations to analyze price and technical efficiency in a sample of presumably not-for-profit mutual and presumably profit-maximizing stock savings institutions. Theories of property rights and agency are reviewed to provide predictions of price efficiency (i.e., profit maximization and cost minimization behavior), and technical efficiency. The study makes several contributions to the literature. First, it examines the effect of ownership form on both price and technical efficiency. Second, it separately examines the effect of regulatory form on both price and technical efficiency. The model enables us to analyze the separate effects of ownership and regulatory form across a heterogeneous sample of firms. We also analyze the effects of risk in the form of two separate regulatory variables and the effect of market share on economic efficiency.     

Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach

The majority of classification models developed have used a pool of financial ratios combined with statistical variable selection techniques to maximize the accuracy of the classifier constructed. Rather than follow this approach, this article seeks to provide an explicit economic basis for the selection of variables for inclusion in bankruptcy models. This search to develop an economic theory of bankruptcy augments the existing bankruptcy prediction literature. Variables which occur in bankruptcy probability expressions derived from the solution of a stochastic optimizing model of firm behaviour are 'proxied' by variables constructed from financial statement data. The random nature of the lifetime of a single firm provides the rationale for the use of duration or hazard-based statistical methods in the validation of the derived bankruptcy probability expressions. Results of the validation exercise confirm that the majority of variables included in the empirical hazard formulation behave in a way that is consistent with the model of the firm. The results highlight the need for developments in the measurement of earnings dispersion.     

The impact of SFAS No. 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms: Evidence from the initial year of implementation

This study examines the impact of SFAS 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms. I expect a relative improvement in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy for merging firms versus non-merging peers after SFAS 141 adoption. I restrict the post-SFAS 141 sample to the initial year of SFAS 141 implementation. This research design disentangles effects of SFAS No. 141 from those of SFAS No. 142. The evidence from analysis of 48 pairs of merging and matched non-merging firms is consistent with expectations and confirms the increase in earnings predictability for merging firms versus their non-merging peers post-SFAS 141. Results of additional tests suggest that earnings predictability improvement more likely follows from extended disclosure requirements and the other changes in the Purchase Method (“better purchase” issue) than from the elimination of Poolings-of-Interest (“purchase vs. pooling” issue).     

Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next 3 years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC's unemployment projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases.     

Forecast accuracy in initial public offerings and the impact of external constraints relative to managerial choice: a research note

We examine the accuracy of earnings forecasts published in prospectuses, under conditions where external influences of state regulation and economic condition act as constraints to mitigate management optimism. Our results indicate that regulation has no significant impact, but economic condition and management optimism are significantly associated with forecast accuracy. We conclude that a study of forecast accuracy over time must take into account external influences and that attempting to use regulation to improve forecast accuracy is not an effective strategy when there are strongly adverse economic conditions and when promoters or managers are optimistic in forecasting.     

Bank Panics,Government Guarantees,and the Long‐Run Size of the Financial Sector: Evidence from Free‐Banking America

Governments attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long‐run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult. We look to America's free‐banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana‐centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long‐run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.       

经济开放进程中金融危机冲击比较研究

亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对中国经济产生了明显的影响,但在经济开放进程中这两次危机冲击特点和结果均有所不同。本文对开放进程中金融危机向国内传导的渠道进行分析,利用指标对比分析法、干扰模型、脉冲响应以及方差分解技术分析比较了两次金融危机对我国冲击的不同影响机制。研究结论表明,在经济开放进程中,美国次贷危机对国内经济的冲击要远超于亚洲金融危机;在资本项目没有完全开放条件下,国际贸易渠道越来越成为国际金融危机冲击向国内传导的重要渠道;尽管经济开放增加了金融风险,但良好的制度设计和金融风险管理手段的加强,使金融危机通过金融渠道传导而产生的冲击波有所降低。     

On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.