基于分位点回归模型变点检测的金融传染分析

近期对金融危机传染的分析是国际金融研究中的重要问题。大多数传染效应存在性的检验采用相关性方法,这些方法只能指出传染的存在,不能给出传染的程度大小。本文应用分位点回归模型的变点检测,检验了传染效应的存在性,并给出了传染程度大小的一种度量方法。最后本文对亚洲几个国家的指数数据进行了金融危机传染的实证分析。     

关联性视阈下我国金融行业间系统性风险传染效应研究

关联性是研究系统性风险传染效应的一个重要途径。借鉴Billio et al.(2012)的思想,从关联性及其方向性变化研究入手,分别使用主成分分析、线性因果关系检验、非线性因果关系检验、网络分析等方法考察银行业、保险业与证券业间系统性风险的时变传染效应。结果表明,金融危机爆发后金融行业间的关联性显著上升,一旦爆发金融危机,其机构间的传染性要强于以往。平稳时期,各行业内部机构之间的相互传染影响占主流,而在金融危机期间,跨行业机构间的相互传染影响得到了显著的提升,银行业对其他行业造成的传染影响显著增强,证券行业在金融危机期间则更多地受到了传染影响。     

美国次贷危机与新兴市场金融危机的比较分析

本文以美国次贷危机和新兴市场金融危机为研究对象,针对其危机表现、产生原因及后果进行了比较分析,以期找出其共性所在,为我国金融体系的发展和金融危机的防范提出一定的建议。     

防微杜渐：供应商企业应对核心客户财务风险传染策略研究

财务风险的集聚和传染是引发系统性金融风险的潜藏路径,如何在供应链条上识别和防控财务风险的传染对防范化解系统性金融危机具有重要意义。基于2010—2020年A股上市公司构建的“客户-供应商-年度”样本,深入考察核心客户财务风险对供应商的传染效应以及供应商采取的应对策略。研究结果表明：(1)核心客户的财务风险会传染到其供应商企业,供应商采取公司治理提升策略和信息披露质量改善策略能有效应对风险传染。(2)财务风险传染机制识别发现,利益联动效应和资源联动效应是核心客户财务风险传染到供应商的可能路径。(3)异质性分析发现,当行业环境动态性越高和供应链经营波动性越强时,核心客户财务风险对供应商企业的传染效应越显著,而供应商通过公司治理提升策略和信息质量改善策略对核心客户财务风险传染的应对效果更为显著。     

金融危机国际传染下中国经济结构战略选择研究

金融危机是各国经历货币经济时代所无法避免的情况。文章对美国金融危机国际传染的概念特征、原因以及对中国造成的影响进行理论分析,提出经济结构战略选择意见,为中国金融体制的转型改革构建策略框架,也为发展中国家金融危机治理提供思路借鉴。     

经济虚拟化背景下金融危机机制的探究

现代金融危机已具有国际传染性,因美元具有国际货币地位使美国金融危机的国际传染相应具有其独特性。从世界金融危机的爆发历史分析,不同的国际货币本位制下的金融危机传染确实表现出不同的特征,具体的表现形式为:在国际本位制和布雷顿森林体系下,一些国金融危机往往在国际间传染导致全球性或区域性的通货紧缩。但是在美元具有国际货币地位的情况下,由于汇率浮动已成为一种长期化趋势,国际收支调节机制的不健全以及美元霸权的存在,使金融危机的发生速度,传染速度日趋增快,在20世纪90年代以后,随着美元本位制事实上的形成,金融危机的国际传染呈现明显的大规模扩散。     

KLR金融危机预警模型研究——对现阶段新兴市场国家金融危机的实证检验

美国次贷危机的逐步恶化引发了全球金融市场的持续动荡,并逐渐演化为全球性的金融危机.受此冲击以及内在高通胀压力的影响,部分新兴市场国家金融体系的脆弱性逐渐凸显.本文利用国际主流的金融危机预警模型KLR模型对新兴市场国家现阶段的金融危机做了实证检验,结果显示KLR模型的预警绩效较好,可以用于进一步的预警研究.在此基础上对未来一段时间的金融危机进行了预警分析,认为现阶段新兴市场国家尚未爆发全面的金融危机,但部分国家已出现经济、金融形势恶化的趋势,其自身体系的脆弱性导致未来发生危机的概率较高.     

我国银行系统性风险传染的风险估测

近年来的金融危机凸显了评估一个国家或地区系统性风险传染效应的紧迫性和重要性,是否存在系统性风险成为衡量金融安全的一个重要方面。本文利用矩阵法构建我国银行的风险传染模型,用最小二乘法和相对熵两种方法分析了不同损失水平下单家银行倒闭可能引起的系统性风险传染。结果表明:最小二乘方法下的风险敞口矩阵更符合实际;2005年的银行风险传染过程会发生一到二轮,且受到负面影响的主要是股份制银行;由于银行核心资本的提高,2009年的风险传染则几乎不会发生。     

从市场角度看国际金融危机成因与对策

从现实非完美的市场出发,分析市场成本,指出市场的存在本身正是金融危机产生的本质原因,并进一步讨论了危机产生的深层原因和直接原因。最后,就前面分析的原因提出应对策略,以减轻金融危机的程度。     

危机背景下中国经济内外部失衡研究

目前,受美国金融危机的影响,国际金融市场正处于深度调整中,各国实体经济受到直接冲击,全球出口市场萎缩,金融危机的影响范围从投资领域扩展到消费需求领域,以美、欧、日为代表的一些发达经济实体以及部分新兴市场国家相继陷入衰退。在此背景下,企业主动缩减投资规模,数以万计的企业纷纷倒闭或减产;各国房地产市场和证券市场持续回落产生负财富效应,导致消费者信心下降;继美国、日本之后,欧洲汽车业前所未有的困境近期集中暴露出来;     

Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets

This paper investigates contagion to European stock markets associated with seven big financial shocks between 1997 and 2002. We apply methods using heteroscedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficients to discriminate between contagion, interdependence and breaks in stock markets relationships. The analysis focuses on a comparison between developed Western European markets and emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe. We find modest evidence of significant instabilities in cross-market linkages after the crises. The Central and Eastern European stock markets are not more vulnerable to contagion than Western European markets.     

Contagion in global equity markets in 1998: The effects of the Russian and LTCM crises

The Russian and LTCM financial crises in 1998 originated in bond markets, but rapidly transmitted through international equity markets. A multi-factor model of financial markets with multiple regimes is used to estimate the transmission effects in equity markets due to global, regional and contagious transmission mechanisms during the crises. Using a panel of 10 emerging and industrial financial markets, the empirical results show that contagion is significant and widespread in international equity markets during the LTCM crisis, but is more selective during the Russian crisis. Contagion effects in equities differ to those previously noted in bond markets for this period.     

Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis

Financial crises have shown that dramatic movements in one financial market can have a powerful impact on other markets. This paper proposes to use cobreaking to model comovements between stock markets during crises and to test for contagion. We find evidence of cobreaking between developed stock markets. In emerging stock markets, the evidence of cobreaking is mainly due to the non-financial event of the World Trade Center terrorist attacks in 2001. We find evidence of short-term linkages during times of crisis but not contagion. These short-term linkages have important implications for investors, risk managers and regulators.     

Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies

The global financial crisis (2007–2009) saw sharp declines in stock markets around the world, affecting both advanced and emerging markets. In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion originating from the US to advanced and emerging markets during the crisis period. Using a latent factor model, we provide strong evidence of contagion effects in both advanced and emerging equity markets. In the aggregate equity market indices, contagion from the US explains a large portion of the variance in stock returns in both advanced and emerging markets. However, in the financial sector indices we find less evidence of contagion than in the aggregate indices, and this is particularly the case for the advanced markets. The results suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.     

Global finance,sovereign risk and economic performance of Brazil

This paper examines the impact of globalized financial markets on domestic economic policymaking and, ultimately, on economic sovereignty. It argues that the development of dollar-denominated Brady bonds, eurobonds, and global bonds issued by Latin sovereigns opened a new venue for foreign capital to participate in economic affairs of these countries. A natural outcome of the globalization of Brazil’s financial markets has been the increased vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to contagion from financial crises in other troubled markets of the globe. This paper focuses on how the contagion channel compromised domestic economic policymaking and affected the real sector of the Brazilian economy. It offers the first analytical attempt at estimating the real cost of contagion by investigating the impact of the Russian and the Argentine crises on Brazil’s output and production.     

Contagion effects and risk transmission channels in the housing,stock, interest rate and currency markets: An Empirical Study in China and the U.S.

This paper aims to investigate the crisis linkage and transmission channels within the housing, stock, interest rate and the currency markets in the U.S. and China in the past decade since the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Two hybrid models, namely the SWARCH-EVT-Copula and the Bivariate SWARCH-EVT models, are proposed and applied in order to take into account (A) the high/low volatility regimes, (B) the interdependence structure inherited from the joint tail behaviours, as well as, (C) the risk spillover dynamics among financial sectors during market turmoils. We empirically show that the housing and stock markets share the strongest linkage and play central roles in the spreading of shocks. With a highly integrated system, the American financial sectors are under greater exposure to risk contagion and systemic risk during crises than the Chinese markets. Nevertheless, the exchange rate risk of Renminbi remains at an intensive level since its “crawl-like arrangement” and leads to increasing co-movements in the stock and interest rate markets since 2014.     

Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis

Considering the frequency domain and nonlinear characteristics of financial risks, we measure the multiscale financial risk contagion by constructing EMD-Copula-CoVaR models. Using a sample composed of nine international stock markets from January 4, 1999, to May 13, 2021, the empirical study reveals that: (1) EMD-Copula-CoVaR models can effectively measure the multiscale financial risk contagion, and the financial risk contagion is significant at all time scales; (2) The high-frequency component is the major contributor of financial risk contagion; meanwhile, the low-frequency component is the smallest among all time scale components; (3) The risk export of the US financial market to other markets, except the UK under the original and medium-frequency component, is higher than that it receives; and (4) Even though the magnitude of overall financial risk contagion is similar for the COVID-19 pandemic, Subprime Crises, 9/11 terrorist attack and other crises, the relative importance of different frequency components is heterogeneous. Therefore, the countermeasures of risk contagion should be designed according to its multiscale characteristics.     

Unravelling financial market linkages during crises

An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises, including spillover and contagion effects, are formally specified. The model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks, country and market shocks, and idiosyncratic shocks. The framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The results provide strong evidence that cross‐market links are important. Spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion, but both are statistically significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis

This study examines market co-movements in Islamic and mainstream equity markets across different regions in order to discover contagion during 9 major crises and to measure integration between markets. Using wavelet decomposition to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movement, we find that the shocks were transmitted via excessive linkages, while the recent subprime crisis reveals fundamentals-based contagion. While Islamic markets show traces of reduced exposure to the recent crisis owing to low leverage effect, their less diversified portfolio nature increases vulnerability to other crises. We generally find incomplete market integration, with relatively higher fundamental integration for Islamic markets which may be attributable to their real sector allocation nature.