Soviet theories of economic demography: a survey

At this time Soviet demographic scientists maintain the position that population problems may in fact exist temporarily under socialism but that the planning principle will allow society to resolve population problems, through the use of the administrative, moral, and economic levers (subsidies, government policies, propaganda, education) emphasized by Urlanis (1974) and others. For planners to deal effectively with population management, the determinants of fertility and labor force participation must be established. The foundations of Soviet theories of human capital and fertility were laid by several writers. For the sake of simplicity, these are referred to as the Urlanis-Strumilin model, named after 2 pioneer researchers in Soviet demography and manpower economics. The formulations are based upon the writings of Strumlin (1964) and Urlanis (1974), supplemented by writings of numerous other Soviet researchers. Although their models avoid neoclassical terms such as marginal utility and income and price elasticities, they clearly employ these concepts. The Urlanis-Strumilin model, reduced to its basic elements, is a direct household utility maximizing model. The husband and wife, the household decision makers, must select optimal levels of child "quantity," child "quality," leisure, their own human capital (further education and training), and other goods. The Soviet theory recognizes that an increase in household income will increase relatively the demands for income elastic goods. The model postulates that the demand for child quality is inversely related to the price of children. The price of children is the opportunity cost of children, the major element of which is the income foregone by the mother in the course of childbearing and childrearing. The child quantity demand schedule has elastic and inelastic portions. The marginal utility of the 1st child is great. The marginal utilities of higher order children decline substantially. Families with at least 1 child can make substitutions between having more children and raising the quality of children already born. The question is what does the model predict will happen to fertility with economic development. The positive income effect will be limited as increased income is channelled into child quality and other superior goods rather than child quantity. The Urlanis-Strumilin model of labor supply assumes that the household allocates its time among market employment, household production. The model shows that the effect of children on female labor supply is not ambiguous. The presence of young children raises the value of home services and lowers long run market wages, thereby reducing female market labor supply. According to the model, the socialist state can manipulate labor supplies through several channels. It can reduce the value of home services by providing market substitutes. Soviet writers recognize the linkages between labor supply and fertility without formalizing the simultaneous relationship. The comparative statics of the Soviet model are essentially the same as those of the neoclassical model: an increase in "costs" of children will have, at best, a small positive impact on fertility.     

解雇成本、市场分割与《劳动合同法》——基于理论模型对《劳动合同法》争议的新解释

基于理论模型的研究发现,《劳动合同法》有助于知识员工和知识密集型企业达成"双赢",但是可能导致体力员工和劳动密集型企业"双输"。《劳动合同法》之所以备受争议,其对低端劳工市场的消极影响是主因,外界经济环境恶化带来的经营压力和就业压力是辅因,而且,主辅因的结合打乱了政府预期的经济转型之路。     

中国劳动力市场发展中存在的问题及其对劳动关系的影响

我国的劳动力市场体系已基本发育成型并呈现良性运转的态势,为和谐劳动关系的建立创造了条件。但是,在我国劳动力市场的运行过程中仍存在诸多问题,深入分析我国劳动力市场发展中存在的问题对劳动关系带来的影响,提出进一步完善劳动力市场的思路和建议,可以为和谐劳动关系的建立创造基础性条件。     

The causes and consequences of steel subsidization in Germany

We argue that steel subsidies were adopted primarily to protect unskilled labor interests (employment) in regions afflicted by foreign steel competition. Two conditions attached to that decision were that subsidies would be granted for a limited period only and linked to steelmaking capacity reductions. Using a regionally and sectorally disaggregated general equilibrium model of Germany, we find that steel subsidies cannot maintain unskilled labor employment steady without violating those conditions, so that demands for further protection are likely to reappear. Our analysis also shows that regional wage subsidies can satisfy the same employment objective better at considerably lower expense.     

数字金融、居民劳动参与及家庭财务脆弱性

国内居民劳动参与不足、家庭财务风险隐现,发展数字金融能否破局？基于中国家庭金融调查数据,本文从微观视角探究数字金融对居民劳动参与及家庭财务脆弱性的影响。研究发现,数字金融发展与数字金融使用程度的加深,有助于促进居民劳动参与,降低家庭财务脆弱性。机制分析表明,数字金融通过增加居民创业、吸引劳动力流动促进居民进行劳动参与,居民劳动参与的增加有助于降低家庭财务脆弱性,另外,数字金融降低家庭财务脆弱性的效应还可通过提升家庭金融素养、提高家庭金融资产配置比例来实现。异质性分析表明,不同特征的个体、家庭与地区,数字金融促进居民劳动参与、降低家庭脆弱性的边际效应既存在“数字红利”,也存在多维“数字鸿沟”。本文的结论为优化数字金融发展,利用数字金融来破解居民劳动参与率不足和家庭财务风险激增两大难题提供了政策参考。     

Austrian economics and the analysis of labor markets

Theory and policy relating to labor markets is dominated by the mainstream labor market model, although a less well-known, socioeconomic version can also be identified. The mainstream model is methodologically flawed and forced, thereby, to relegate any (serious) investigation of labor market institutions and/or social structures to the margins of its analysis. The socioeconomic account is not so much methodologically flawed, as methodologically ambivalent. While this ambivalence does not actually prevent the investigation of institutions and/or social structures, it does promote ambiguity whenever we inquire into the precise nature of the interaction between them and labor markets. Insights from Austrian economics, when used in collaboration with critical realist methodology, can play a part in augmenting the socioeconomic account, generating a totally new approach to the analysis of labor markets.

The heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT revenues: Evidence on a developed country

The value-added tax is spread in many countries primarily because it allows rising public revenues, but its revenue performance can be undermined in the presence of informality. We document the existence of heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT collection in a developed country such as Italy. By using novel regional administrative data on VAT revenues, we find that labor informality produces negative effects on total VAT collection, including VAT on production and consumption, and positive effects on VAT revenues from consumption only. We also find that the consequences of labor informality on VAT collection depend on the size of informality, by approximating an-inverted U-relation. As for Italy, we explain such heterogeneous effects with the presence of regional differences in labor market conditions. We also document that labor informality has heterogeneous effects on VAT collection when considering specific productive sectors, and the cyclical consequences of the Great Recession.     

中国劳动力市场发育与就业变化

本文通过梳理关于劳动力市场发育和就业状况的统计数据,并结合微观调查数据,对城乡就业增长和结构变化进行了描述,批评了传统的关于"就业零增长"、"农村剩余劳动力一成不变"等判断。本文提供了有关劳动力市场的指标,准确地反映了伴随着经济增长和改革开放的深入,劳动力市场发育水平的提高、就业总量增长和结构多元化、以及城镇就业压力的缓解和农村剩余劳动力大幅度减少的事实。此外,本文还通过对人口转变过程的阐释,预测了劳动力市场供求的变化趋势,做出刘易斯转折点即将到来的判断,并揭示了这个转折点对中国经济持续增长提出的挑战。     

人力资本、企业家与价值决定——马克思劳动价值论的企业视角剖析

在马克思体系中,劳动价值论客观具有不同的研究视角,可以归约为劳动价值论的产业视角和劳动价值论的企业视角.对两个视角进行相互嵌入研究是剖解当前马克思劳动价值论体系内存在的若干理论难题的一个关键.文章以规范性的分析方法实际地理论考察了这一全过程,得出了人力资本和企业家参与价值决定的基本结论.这一推断和分析具有广义内涵,可以引领狭义劳动价值论逐步走向广义劳动价值论.     

The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy

In this paper, we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a New Keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions. We first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behavior and the transmission of monetary policy. We find that while a lower degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective, i.e. a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation, the importance of other labor market rigidities for the transmission of shocks is rather limited. Second, having estimated the model by Bayesian techniques we analyze to which extent labor market shocks, such as disturbances in the vacancy posting process, shocks to the separation rate and variations in bargaining power are important determinants of business cycle fluctuations. Our results point primarily towards disturbances in the bargaining process as a significant contributor to inflation and output fluctuations. In sum, the paper supports current central bank practice which appears to put considerable effort into monitoring euro area wage dynamics and which appears to treat some of the other labor market information as less important for monetary policy.     

从资本属性看劳资关系的平等性和公平性

中国经济转型时期资本在循环过程中的不公平、不平等问题,揭示了资本不可忽视的社会属性以及这种属性对劳资关系中平等性、公平性的影响。而"契约"作为连接资本与劳动力的重要环节,必然体现出二者之间的经济和社会关系,契约自身的不公平性和不平等性揭示出资本所蕴含的、其自身无法解决的社会与经济两方面的公平、平等和正义问题。因此,资本经济属性的实现并不会必然导致公平和平等,而无视资本的社会属性,经济越是发展,公平与平等程度越低。     

马克思的生态经济理论和生态经济体制的建立问题——“两型”社会建设的几点思考

从马克思的理论看,经济活动不是单纯的人与自然之间的关系,实际上,人与自然界的物质变换是以人与人的社会关系作为中介的,即生产总是以一定的社会关系进行,并形成相应的生产关系。而生产关系的制度化就形成经济体制,生态经济问题的要义应在经济体制中去理解和把握。基于此,我们这里讨论生态经济问题,不是单纯地思考某一生态的经济产品或产业,而是着重考虑生态经济体制建立的着力点。目前在我国,一是应建立"再生产自然"的经济体系;二是着眼社会发展的整体性和实行"有限的资本生产体制";三是强化主体功能区的分工及其合理协调的发展与生态建设功能;四是优化资源节约型与环境友好型的工业管理体系构建。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Labor Quality in Developing Countries

The quality of local labor is an important factor in a multinational corporation's (MNC) decision to set up production operations in a developing country. It is often observed that developing country governments attempt to attract MNCs by enhancing labor quality. This paper studies the interaction between an MNC and a local government which has superior information on local labor quality. The local government has an incentive to enhance the labor quality and share that information with the MNC because it increases both its net tax revenue and profit of the MNC. The paper provides an explanation for recent findings of FDI in developing countries: the bulk of FDI has been directed toward a limited number of countries and human capital plays an increasingly important role in attracting FDI.     

A model of local labor market reguiation of Chin in the transition period

With the establishment of labor market of China,market is playing a more and more important role in allocation of human resources.However,with the transition of economy in China and industrial upgrading in recent years,many labor problems have occurred which do harm to the sustainable development of local economy.The paper researches on the labor market issues of China from the perspective of local labor market regulation,Firstly,reviews the theories of local labor market regulation.And then the main components of local labor market regulation of China are identified and the evaluation index system is established,The results of analysis of the calculated output show that (1) the local labor market regulation of China has an obvious character of gradient distribution geographically and decreases gradually from east to west;(2) of all the regulations,the regulation of the development of human capital has the most significant impact on local economy currently which is followed by the regulation of laborrelation and the regulation of market participation.As to the regulation of social security,it has no significant impact on the development of local economy.     

J. S. Mill on Wages and Women: A Feminist Critique

"J. S. Mill on Wages and Women" questions the common belief that Mill, despite his feminism, never suggested an end to the sexual division of labor because of his devotion to the concept of efficiency and other tenets of classical economics. A review of Mill's analysis of a competitive labor market indicates that he believed it to be fully consistent with women's equality in the workforce. In fact, in his works on women, it becomes clear that Mill was concerned that the logical extension of classical economic principles might lead to the commodification of domestic duties, including child rearing, a notion he evidently feared. Therefore, it was Mill's fear of, rather than dedication to, extreme allegiance to efficiency and unimpeded capitalism that limited his feminism.     

产业集聚程度与劳动生产率间关系的实证研究——基于江苏省纺织业的数据

运用EG指数模型实证分析了2002—2009年间江苏省纺织业产业集聚程度的变化趋势,并计算分析了2002—2009年间江苏省纺织产业的劳动生产率;基于此,研究两者之间的关系,并进行曲线拟合。曲线拟合结果表明:江苏省纺织业的产业集聚度与劳动生产率之间确实存在倒"U"型关系,但倒"U"型曲线中临界点的位置与预期有所不同,这可能是受全球金融危机和江苏省纺织产业在发展中所积累的问题的影响。最后对江苏省纺织产业及其产业集群发展提出了若干建议。     

市场化能够消除歧视吗?——来自"身高溢价"的证据

市场化改革能改善资源配置效率,对中国的劳动力市场具有重要影响.文章使用中国家庭追踪调查2014年数据(CFPS2014),结合中国分省份市场化指数数据,分析了增进地区市场化程度对消除身高歧视的作用.结果表明:首先,我国劳动力市场存在"身高溢价"现象,即身高对收入具有显著正影响,并且身高优势有助于劳动力获得白领职业和进入具有较高职业声望的职业类别.其次,通过"中介作用"模型对其影响机理进行分析发现,身高溢价很可能是来自于劳动力市场上的雇主歧视行为,而非消费者歧视或个体在受教育水平、认知能力及非认知能力等人力资本方面的差异.最后,"身高溢价"现象具有明显的地区异质性,在相对欠发达的地区其影响更具显著性,而增进地区市场化程度能够显著降低劳动力市场的外貌特征歧视.     

Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe

Conventional wisdom, as reflected in reports by the World Bank and the Whitsun Foundation, maintains that control of population growth is the key strategy for stimulating socioeconomic development and ending widespread poverty. The Witsun Foundation has criticized the Government of Zimbabwe for failing to include specific policies for population control in its National Transitional Development Plan. the report further expressed alarm about future availability of land to contain Zimbabwe's growing population. Communal areas are designed for a maximum of 325,000 families yet presently contain 700-800,000 families. This Malthusian, deterministic emphasis on population growth as the source of social ills ignores the broader, complex set of socioeconomic, historical, and political factors that determine material life. Any analysis of population that fails to consider the class structure of society, the type of division of labor, and forms of property and production can produce only meaningless abstractions. For example, consideration of crowding in communal areas must include consideration of inequitable patterns of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa. Unemployment must be viewed within the context of a capitalist economic structure that relies on an industrial reserve army of labor to ensure acceptance of low wages and labor-intensive conditions. While it is accepted that population growth is creating specific and real problems in Zimbabwe and other African countries, these problems could be ameliorated by land reform and restructuring of the export-oriented colonial economies. Similarly, birth control should not be promoted as the solution to social problems, yet family planning services should be available to raise the status of women. Literacy, agrarian reform, agricultural modernization, and industrialization campaigns free from the dominance of Western capitalism represent the true solutions to Zimbabwe's problems.     

正视农村剩余劳动力转移的挑战

中国在10年左右的周期内农村剩余劳动力转出的总规模需要达到1．5亿到两亿人。城乡劳动力对就业岗位的竞争正在趋于激化。大中型城市将是新增就业岗位的主要来源。就业岗位正在成为国际竞争中最稀缺的资源。就业优先应当成为最重要的战略取向。劳动力市场发育要优先于其他要素的市场发育,就业岗位增加要优先于社会收入水平提高。就业政策的重点是要防止供求不平衡导致交易价格被压低到供给成本之下,同时保证有限的就业机会优先分配给最优秀、最有效率的群体。     

China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects*

Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.