基于人工神经网络的权证定价模型研究

近年来，人工神经网络方法已开始广泛运用于金融衍生产品的定价研究中。权证作为我国推出的第一个金融衍生产品，它的定价效率对维护权证市场的供求平衡具有非常重要的作用，本文在Black—Scholes权证定价模型的基础上，利用MATLAB神经网络工具箱，构建了一个RBF神经网络权证定价模型，并以江西铜业的认股权证江铜CWBI作为样本进行实证研究，对权证定价的新方法提出了一种新的解决方案。     

IPO定价模型建立

通过以沪深两市13只银行股作为样本,基于国内及国外对IPO定价的相关分析,从影响股票IPO定价的内在、外在因素中进行初步选取相关因素作为解释变量,采用因子分析法构建IPO定价模型。进行变量合理性分析后不难发现:二级市场平均市盈率是衡量股价高低和企业盈利能力的一个重要指标;企业净利润增长率越高,IPO发行价应当越高,两者之间是正相关的关系;从内部因素上看,影响银行类公司IPO定价的主要因素是成长能力和经营效益,市场因子以及安全因子对银行类公司IPO定价并不十分显著;股票IPO价格对利率的敏感性逐渐下降,利率对银行股发行定价影响较小等。     

CAPM及其衍生模型在上海A股市场的实证分析

文章除了对Fama和French三因素模型,即市场因素、规模因素及价值因素进行实证研究外,还在三因素的基础上加了一个动量定价因子,探索Carhart四因素模型对中国股市的惯性与反转现象的解释能力,即对股票由惯性与反转效应带来的超额收益率与市场资产组合、公司规模、账面市场价值比和股价动量的关系问题进行了实证研究。     

我国权证市场定价效率现状及对策探析

自从2005年8月22日我国第一只权证上市以来,我国权证市场迅速发展,交易极其活跃,市场成交额已经名列世界前茅。但飞速发展的同时也存在一系列问题,表现突出的就是定价效率低下。本文通过对我国权证市场的研究,找出定价效率低下的原因,并针对性的提出相应的对策,以此希望我国权证市场能够更规范更有效的发展。     

基于非线性结构的中国权证和股票市场价格关系实证研究

权证价格与标的股票价格间若存在非线性结构,传统的线性Granger因果关系检验对其非线性因果关系辨别能力弱,因而无法准确判断它们之间的真实关系.本文选取目前已退市且交易时间最长的10只权证及标的股票为研究对象,考虑到在权证定价模型中权证价格往往是被表示为关于标的股票价格高阶项的非线性函数,本文着重采用修正的Baek-Brock检验方法对我国权证价格和标的股票价格之间的非线性因果关系进行实证研究.实证结果表明权证价格和标的股票价格之间存在双向的非线性因果关系,两者之间并不存在绝对的领先与滞后关系.     

权证发行对标的股票价格风险影响的实证研究

研究权证发行对标的证券价格风险的影响,对研究资本市场的有效性及权证定价等方面具有重要的意义。目前我国已经发行的备兑权证,运用资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和GARCH-M模型,探讨权证的发行时正股的无风险报酬、系统性风险(Beta)和总风险(报酬率波动性)是否有显著影响。实证结果表明,无论是认购权证、认沽权证,还是蝶式权证的发行对正股的无风险报酬、系统性风险的影响基本上均不显著,但对半数以上发行权证的股票的总风险有显著影响。抑制权证市场的投机性,发挥其本身应发挥的价格发现功能、促进股票的流动性、降低股价波动性等的功能,就必须从风险相互对冲的角度,循序渐进地大力发展权证等衍生产品的规模,促进衍生品市场健康、有序地发展。     

GARCH-M框架下权证定价研究

利用标的股票的日收盘价格数据进行GARCH-M参数估计,然后利用物理测度和风险中性测度之间的局部风险中性定价关系,为目前国内的备兑权证进行定价。定价结果表明GARCH框架下的权证定价模型比历史波动率模型能够更好地吻合市场数据,但和市场价格之间仍有差距。分析了这种差异的原因,并给出相应的对策建议。     

基于B-S定价模型下的香港认购权证价格偏差分析

主要以Black-Scholes定价模型为主要的理论工具,选取香港恒生指数具有代表性的认购权证5577和4504及其正股的数据作样本,应用历史波动率计算了权证的理论价格;通过格兰因因果检验和偏离度分析,检验了市场定价的合理性和有效性。     

我国权证与股票市场指数联动关系的实证分析

2005年8月,股权分置改革再度催生了我国的权证交易,我国权证市场取得了令人瞩目的成绩,成为了世界上交易活跃、成交量最大的权证市场之一。目前,学术界已经很深入地研究了我国权证市场的定价及其溢价效应,但作为股票的衍生品,权证市场和其标的资产市场之间的相互关系还缺乏系统性地探讨。本文将实证研究这些权证的收益、波动性和股票指数之间存在的联动关系,进而论证这些衍生品所具有的部分普通股票的性质。本研究的直接启示就是:建立有序且高效率的股票卖空机制,将对我国的资本市场产生深远的影响。     

中国权证与股票市场相关关系实证研究

文章运用了协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验和ECM模型对中国沪深有代表性的权证及其正股价格进行了实证分析.研究结果表明,认购权证价格与标的股票价格之间存在显著的协整关系,权证市场与股票市场存在长期均衡关系,但不存在双向因果关系,短期内权证市场走势背离股票市场,反应出市场投机和炒作.     

权证发行对正股定价效率的影响

本文研究了权证发行对于正股定价效率的影响。以正股日收益率为研究对象,运用GARCH-M模型、带虚拟变量的市场模型以及自相关回归方程分析了在权证上市前后正股总风险、系统性风险、收益率自相关性的变化。实证结果表明:权证上市交易提高了正股的总风险,对系统性风险的影响不十分明确;正股收益率变化不显著;正股日收益率自相关性不显著地减弱。股票定价效率并未得到显著提高。本文认为原因可能来自于信息的负外部性、市场过强的投机性和创设制度本身的缺陷。     

Are stocks dumped or neglected by analysts' inferior investments to covered stocks?

We compare the long-term stock price and operating performance of firms that are followed by analysts to those that are not over the period of 1994-2005. While analysts are skillful in identifying quality firms for coverage, the market is efficient in pricing both covered and neglected stocks such that risk-adjusted stock returns are compatible between the two groups. However, dumped stocks consistently outperform covered stocks with significant risk-adjusted returns across different market conditions and regulatory environments. Hence, investors might earn better returns by investing in dumped stocks, but the higher returns may represent compensation for greater search costs and information risk associated with investing in these stocks.     

Dispersion in Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Market Efficiency

Recent studies show that firms with higher analysts’ earnings forecasts dispersion subsequently have lower returns than firms with lower forecasts dispersion. This paper evaluates alternative explanations for the dispersion–return relation using a stochastic dominance approach. We aim to discriminate between the hypothesis that some asset pricing models can explain the puzzling negative relation between dispersion and stock returns, and the alternative hypothesis that the dispersion effect is mainly driven by investor irrationality and thus is an evidence of a failure of efficient markets. We find that low dispersion stocks dominate high dispersion stocks by second‐ and third‐order stochastic dominance over the period from 1976 to 2012. Our results imply that any investor who is risk‐averse and prefers positive skewness would unambiguously prefer low dispersion stocks to high dispersion stocks. We conclude that the dispersion effect is more likely evidence of market inefficiency, rather than a result of omitted risk factors.     

Does the Fama and French Five‐Factor Model Work Well in Japan?

In this study, we investigate whether the five‐factor model by Fama and French (2015) explains well the pricing structure of stocks with long‐run data for Japan. We conduct standard cross‐section asset pricing tests and examine the additional explanatory power of the new Fama and French factors; robust‐minus‐weak profitability factor and conservative‐minus‐aggressive investment factor. We find that robust‐minus‐weak and the conservative‐minus‐aggressive factors are not statistically significant when we conduct generalized method of moments (GMM) tests with the Hansen–Jagannathan distance measure. Thus, we conclude that the original version of the Fama and French five‐factor model is not the best benchmark pricing model for Japanese data during our sampling period from the year 1978 to the year 2014.     

Pricing Policy and Partial Collusion

We study the pricing policy equilibria emerging in a partial collusion duopolistic framework where firms in the first stage of the game choose non-cooperatively the pricing strategy (perfect price discrimination or uniform pricing), and from the second stage onward collude on prices. We show that for intermediate discount factors and high firms’ asymmetry, the unique equilibrium is characterized by only the smaller firm choosing price discrimination. In the case of intermediate discount factors and low firms’ asymmetry, there are two possible equilibria: both firms price discriminate or no firm price discriminates. When the discount factor is particularly high or particularly low both firms price discriminate in equilibrium.     

Private investment in small public entities

Private placements provided by institutional or individual accredited investors are becoming an important financing tool for small public firms worldwide. However, private placement issuers offer poor average returns. We explain this puzzle using 2,987 traditional private placements by Canadian small public firms over a decade. We observe significant long-run post-issue underperformance using a classic factor pricing model. This underperformance is partially erased when the returns are adjusted to consider the issuers’ high level of investment, and to include the discount granted to private investors. We split the sample by the glamour/value dimension and by the firms’ investment activity. Only glamour firms with high investment activity underperform in the long run. Private investors obtain positive returns on placements in value and high investment firms. However, they overestimate investment projects of glamour firms.     

Market integration in developed and emerging markets: Evidence from the CAPM

Beta, as measured by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), is widely used for pricing stocks, determining the cost of capital, and gauging the extent to which markets are integrated. The CAPM model assumes that equilibrium conditions prevail. The choice of which market portfolio to use in the regression – the home country or global index – depends on the level of global market integration. We present several new empirical observations on the pricing of stocks and market integration. We provide guidance on how practitioners should calculate beta on securities in various developed and emerging markets.     

The valuation of multiple stock warrants

The issue of multiple series of stock purchase warrants by the same firm is an interesting financial structure not just in America, but is common in countries such as Switzerland, Malaysia, and Singapore. This paper derives valuation formulas for multiple series of outstanding warrants. The theoretical warrant prices from this model are compared against existing models. We report a subtle slippage effect and also a cross dilution effect that cause the existing models, such as Galai‐Schneller model, to be inappropriate for pricing such classes of multiple warrants. We also provide an example to illustrate the practicality of our model. The Greeks of the model are also derived in this paper. The complexity of multiple warrants could extend to other classes of contingent securities issued by the same firm but with differing expiry terms. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:517–534, 2003     

Uniform or spatially differentiated? Pricing Strategies for Information Goods under simultaneous and sequential decision-making in multi-market context

Product pricing has been one of the central issues in the field of marketing and consumer services for managers and researchers alike. However, pricing of information goods has not been paid much attention in literature. For information goods the marginal costs of production and transportation of information goods (online movies, video games, etc.) is almost zero. Hence, the pricing decisions need to be thought of purely in competitive profit maximizing terms. This paper proposes mechanisms for managers to evaluate and base their pricing decisions on rational frameworks that takes into account various situations when they enter a new market and when they are incumbent in a new market. This paper addresses the research gap of spatially differentiated pricing strategy for information goods that has not been studied in literature so far. We create stylized theoretical models under both, sequential and simultaneous decision-making conditions. We determine the equilibrium price and the equilibrium profit for the two firms for each of the four possible scenarios based on their pricing strategies. Our analysis reveals that the dominance of one pricing strategy over the other depends on product differentiation factor capturing joint effect of the product substitutability and consumer's price sensitivity under sequential decision making and the market size along with consumer's price sensitivity for simultaneous decision making. As an extension, we propose a generalized model demonstrating the uniform and spatially differentiated pricing strategies of the firms under simultaneous and sequential selection for multiple domestic and international markets.     

风险企业股票期权类型选择机制研究

在风险企业的创业过程中,风险企业家和员工的人力资本在很大程度上决定着创业的成败,然而人力资本具有非共生性,需要用一定的激励机制来共化人力资本于风险企业的价值之中。定量分析体现股票期权激励效果的因素,以边际激励效果因子大小为选择股票期权类型的标准,来比较标准的股票期权计划和基于业绩要求的股票期权计划所产生的激励效果,为风险企业采用高激励效果的基于业绩要求的股票期权计划提供依据。