Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

We test for firm-level asset investment effects in returns by examining the cross-sectional relation between firm asset growth and subsequent stock returns. Asset growth rates are strong predictors of future abnormal returns. Asset growth retains its forecasting ability even on large capitalization stocks. When we compare asset growth rates with the previously documented determinants of the cross-section of returns (i.e., book-to-market ratios, firm capitalization, lagged returns, accruals, and other growth measures), we find that a firm's annual asset growth rate emerges as an economically and statistically significant predictor of the cross-section of U.S. stock returns.     

Growth Opportunities and Investment Decisions: A New Perspective on the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that it is not always correct to make an upward adjustment to the stock beta in calculating the hurdle rate for capital budgeting even when the project under consideration is riskier than existing assets. The paper also shows that the correct hurdle rate is smaller than the market capitalization rate calculated from the firm's stock beta when the project under consideration has the same risk as existing assets. In addition, it is shown that the market capitalization rate will be an underestimate (overestimate) of the correct hurdle rate when the risk of future assets is greater (smaller) than both the risk of assets in place and that of future capital expenditures. These new results are direct consequences of the insight that the firm's investment opportunities are in fact real call options written on underlying assets.     

Testing the Dividend Discount Model in Housing Markets: the Role of Risk

Tests of the dividend discount model (DDM) applied to housing have studied the trade-off between the capitalization rate (CAP rate) and subsequent house price appreciation. Even allowing for attenuation bias because of actual appreciation does not equal expected appreciation, evidence for the DDM is not strong. This research has included an implicit assumption that risks associated with housing investment are common across housing markets. In addition, many previous tests have used the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Rent Index to construct the CAP rate although recent research by Ambrose et al. (2015) has questioned this data. The American Housing Survey is used to construct estimates of the CAP rate which is then combined with standard appreciation measures to estimate total return and its variance over time for larger Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the U.S. Using statistically constructed estimates of the CAP rate and adding variance in total return to conduct tests of the DDM produces far stronger results than those obtained in previous studies of a cross section of cities in the U.S. But, when the BLS Rent Index is used to measure CAP rates and risk, the results are not consistent with DDM.     

International Corporate Governance and Finance: Legal,Cultural and Political Explanations

We investigate the disparity and the determinants of investor protection around the world and their impact on financial market development. More specifically, we build on Williamson's (2000) new institutional economic model to explain this disparity using legal, political and cultural variables. In 2006, the World Bank established an index to measure the disparity of investor protection regulations across 81 emerging and developed countries. Our results confirm that combining classifications based on legal systems, cultures and polities is important in explaining the disparity of investor protection and market capitalization around the world. In particular, we show that the classical regression analysis is not well suited to approach this question because it gives mitigated results. However, the mediation analysis is more cohesive with our conceptual model: we confirmed an indirect effect through a path analysis involving investor protection as a mediator of the relationship between legal systems and culture on the one hand and stock market capitalization on the other hand. Nevertheless, the polity factor was shown to have only a direct effect on stock market capitalization.     

资源资本化推动下的中国货币化进程（1978—2008）

以资源资本化为实践逻辑的基本框架,重新解读高货币化率背后的内生货币供给现象得出：资源资本化是货币化进程的强大内驱力,在渐进改革的市场化进程中,政府持续不断地将各类要素和其他资源推向市场,使得各类资源持续不断被资本化,由此带来大量的实质性货币需求,从而拉动了较强的货币供给。伴随着自然资源、劳动力资源、资金要素、技术要素、管理要素等资源和要素市场的加速开放和市场化程度的持续加深,中国的资源资本化进程还在加速。由此,中国的经济高货币化进程还将持续一段时期．直至资源资本化推动的M2增速低于GDP增速为止。     

Capital Budgeting for Advertising Expenditures: A Contingent Claims Approach

Advertising expenditures constitute a big part of the budgets of firms. Through their impact on demand and costs, advertising activities affect the firm's pricing and output decisions as well as the firm's market value. Yet, there is no analytical framework by which these effects can be measured. This paper develops a cash flow model for a product where the advertising budget is divided between a strategic component designed to increase expected demand and a contingent component allocated to be used only if sales fall short of capacity. Contingent claims techniques are employed to evaluate the present value of the cash flows and to provide a framework for determining the size of the advertising budget, and the pricing and production strategies that maximize the firm's value. The impact of the price sensitivity, volatility, and growth rate of demand on the size of the advertising budget is also analyzed.     

经营风险与企业杠杆率

本文从理论和实证两方面考察企业经营风险将如何影响其杠杆率。其中,企业面临的经营风险被定义为在企业所属“年份×城市×二位行业”层面内除自身外其他所有企业资产收益率(ROA)的分布标准差。整体而言,当企业经营风险上升时,其投资和负债决策将更加保守,表现为资产负债表收缩和杠杆率下降。分债务期限来看,杠杆率的变化又可分为“规模效应”和“结构效应”,前者指向投资、负债决策的整体收缩,后者指向债务结构中短期负债占比的下降。经营风险上升时,杠杆率下降主要体现为短期债务的缩减;分所有制来看,非国有企业对经营风险的敏感度较强,国有企业对经营风险的敏感度较小,这与两类企业的融资难易程度相符。     

我们为什么需要绿色金融?——从全球经验事实到基于经济增长框架的理论解释

当前,绿色金融备受关注,然而该领域的基础理论尚需进一步强化。根据经济学的一般原理,由于污染的外部性问题,环保的主要力量应当是公共部门而非金融系统。然而为何越来越多国家选择发展绿色金融?其背后的经济学原理是什么?深入探讨这些问题是有效制定政策、构建绿色金融理论体系的基础。本文基于跨国面板数据的分析表明,绿色金融对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,表现出与公共部门环保投入的显著差异。在此基础上,本文构建基于经济增长框架的绿色金融理论模型,对经验事实给出理论解释。模型证明:绿色金融的成本分摊与风险分担功能使其具有独特的长期增长效应,是经济发展必然选择;绿色金融政策与绿色财政政策的协调配合是实现高质量发展的有效手段。本文从理论层面回答了“为什么需要绿色金融”这一问题,为绿色金融的经济学理论发展和政策分析提供了可借鉴的框架。     

Changes in Background Risk and the Demand for Insurance

The demand for insurance against loss from a particular risky asset is likely to depend on other risks the decision-maker faces. For independently distributed other risks, referred to as background risk, Eeckhoudt and Kimball [1992] determine the effect on insurance demand of introducing background risk. Recently, Eeckhoudt, Gollier, and Schlesinger [1996] determine conditions on preferences such that first- and second-degree stochastic deteriorations in background risk lead to a decrease in the decision-maker's willingness to accept other risks. These results, although formulated in a general decision model, also apply to insurance demand. This article continues analysis of this question by determining the effect on insurance demand of several other general changes in background risk.     

Branching,lending and competition in Italian banking

With the liberalization of legal barriers to the opening of bank branches in 1990, both market structure and competitive conditions in Italy changed profoundly as banks expanded their branching networks. This paper provides novel empirical evidence on how changes of the branch network structure at the province level affect the performance and lending activity of banks across the period 1993–2011. In particular, we adopt two modes of analysis. The first focuses on the impact of diversification strategies on performance, lending and funding strategies at the province level. The second one examines how the increase of big banks' local presence affects single-market bank performance and lending strategies. Our results show that geographical diversification strategies can reduce performance, the adjusted Lerner Index of banks and lending activities, but increase the Lerner Index in deposit markets. Furthermore, we find that the expansion of branches by large-medium sized banks in concentrated markets can reduce the Lerner Index for the deposit market and the amount of loans offered by single-market banks.     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

Accounting-Based Valuation with Changing Interest Rates

This paper generalizes Ohlsons [Contemporary Accounting Research Vol. 11 No. 2. 661–687 (1995)] equity valuation framework to allow for stochastic interest rates. Much of this analysis initially deals with the specialized setting in which earnings suffice for cum-dividend value. In such a case, the beginning-of-period (lagged) rate determines the capitalization factor, not the current rate. The underlying earnings dynamic modifies the traditional random walk model via an additional term, namely current earnings multiplied by the percentage change in interest rates. The general model retains these basic aspects of the earnings-sufficiency setting. Empirical implications bear on the returns-to-earnings regression: The earnings-response coefficient decreases as the beginning-of-period rate increases.JEL Classification: M41, G12     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION LOCATION AND "PRO FORMA" FINANCIAL HEDGING OF EXCHANGE RATE RISK

There are many considerations in a firm's choice of where to locate a production facility. One of the least understood is the implication of foreign exchange risk. The issue is complex because, in addition to the concept of operational hedging, managers must also consider economic exposure and, in cases with foreign competitors, competitive exposure. As shown in this article, a firm's competitive exposure to exchange rate changes depends upon the location of its competitors' plants as well as its own.
The currency exposures of various international production strategies are demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios. The scenarios can also be used to perform a "pro forma" financial hedging analysis of currency exposure in simple "three-outcome" cases. By implicitly accounting for the market's pricing of exchange rate risk, the financial hedging analysis provides a straightforward way for managers to evaluate various international production possibilities.     

Office Building Capitalization Rates: The Case of Downtown Chicago

This paper is an empirical study of the capitalization rates for 132 office building sales in downtown Chicago from 1996 to 2007. The capitalization rate is hypothesized to be a function of the classic capital asset pricing model variable and variables intended to capture the expectation that the real market value of the building will change. The results show that the capitalization rate for office buildings incorporates a very low value for “beta.” A lower capitalization rate was associated with a smaller risk-free rate, a lower borrowing rate, class A buildings, newer buildings, buildings that had been renovated, a reduction in the vacancy rate in the downtown Chicago office market, and an increase in employment in the financial sector of the metropolitan area.     

Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets

This paper derives optimal hedging and production rules for an exporting firm which faces both commodity-price and foreign- exchange-rate uncertainty. The size of the commodity hedge is independent of the properties of the foreign-exchange market. However, the optimal foreign-exchange hedge depends on the commodity hedge and the properties of the commodity forward market. The firm's production decision is independent of its objective function if both forward markets exist, but depends on the consumption beta of the unhedgeable risks in the absence of one or both of the markets.     

Federal financial guarantees and the occasional market pricing of default risk: Evidence from insured deposits

This paper develops a two-date state preference model which demonstrates that investors' valuation of third-party guaranteed debt depends on the financial condition of the guarantor. As the solvency ratio of the guarantor declines, investors demand higher promised rates on the firm's debt securities and price the firm risk variables more sensitively.The empirical results are derived from sample data of FSLIC guaranteed obligations from the late 1980s. Evidence shows differences in the market's perception of FSLlC's insolvency between 1987 and 1988. The market response to a decline in the financial condition of the guarantor affected the value of insured CDs, raising CD rates in relation to the Treasury curve and firm risk pricing of insured deposits emerged.     

VALUE-AT-RISK AND CORPORATE VALUATION

Although first used mainly by financial institutions to evaluate their trading risks, Value-at-Risk (VAR) can also be used to enhance an industrial corporation's understanding and management of its market risks. To illustrate this broader application of VAR analysis, the authors present a simple example focusing on the valuation of a closely held company. In this case, VAR is used to analyze the sensitivity of the firm's value to movements in uncertain exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates.     

On the Accuracy of Different Measures of q

Tobin's q is widely accepted as a proxy for an underlying "true" q, which is assumed to characterize a firm's incentive to invest. Researchers have developed numerous methods for computing q. This article assesses the measurement quality of different proxies for q. We adapt the measurement-error consistent estimators in Erickson and Whited (2002) to estimate the extent to which variation in true unobservable q explains variation in different proxies for q. We find most proxies for q are poor: careful algorithms for calculating q do little to improve measurement quality. Using elaborate algorithms, however, depletes the number of usable observations and possibly introduces sample selection bias.     

Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach

This study investigates the impact of systemic risks and financialdollarization on real interest rates in emerging economies.Higher systemic risks induce both higher real interest ratesand increased dollarization. Using appropriate instruments forthe dollarization ratio, the study overcomes the simultaneousequation problem and correctly estimates a negative coefficientfor the dollarization ratio in the interest rate equation. Itconfirms the theoretical prediction that a strategy of "dedollarizing"the economy will raise the equilibrium domestic real interestrate if the strategy fails to address fundamental macroeconomicrisks. Even so, it also finds that this effect is small, aftercontrolling for the risks of dilution and default. The resultsbring to light the systemic-risk reasons for high interest ratesin emerging economies—and contribute to evaluating thedifficulties of dedollarization policies.