Revisiting the relationship between suicide and unemployment: Evidence from linear and nonlinear cointegration

This study employs the linear and nonlinear ARDL cointegration methodologies to examine the potential symmetric and asymmetric responses of suicide rates to unemployment rates in the US from 1928 to 2013. Our results suggest that suicide rates are pro-cyclical with respect to the business cycle (measured by changes in the unemployment rate) after extensively controlling for divorce and fertility rates. Unemployment has symmetric long-run effects on the age-adjusted suicide rate and four age-specific (from ages 25–34 to 55–64) suicide rates, while the effect of an economic expansion on suicide rates for those aged over 45 is greater than the effect of an economic recession. These findings imply that the effect of an economic expansion on the decrease of the suicide rate is higher than the effect of an economic recession on the increase of the suicide rate for individuals aged over 45. Therefore, intervention designed to reduce suicidal behaviors should emphasize periods of economic recession more than periods of economic expansion for those of middle age and beyond.     

The Economy and Suicide:

A bstract . The suicide rate for the U.S.A. for the period of 1940–84 was posited to be the consequence of the interplay of economic and social variables. The single equation regression was applied to the suicide rates for the total population and for the four sex by race social groups. The results indicated that: (1) suicide rates did not increase during the economic booms and busts as predicted by Durkheim , and the change depended upon the social groups involved; (2) the unemployment rate had significant detrimental impact only on the white male suicide rate; (3) the female labor force participation rate had beneficial impact on both the white and non-white female suicide rates; (4) the divorce rate was the only variable that had a consistent impact for all social groups; and (5) membership in the Catholic Church had a positive association with the suicide rates.     

A Comparison of Forecasting Techniques for Predicting Exchange Rates

Forecasting exchange rates accurately helps policy makers and businesses to plan more appropriately. Exchange rates provide information for policy makers about a country's mde position relative to that of ocher nations. In addition, accurate informaticm about future exchange rates helps to improve the quality of many management decisions. This study illustrates the use of different forecasting methods in predicting exchange rates f a the British Pound, German Mark and Japanese Yen. A number of accuracy measures are used to judge the performance of these methods. The results show that simple time series techniques can perfam as well as some complex and costly techniques in forecasting exchange rates.     

Institutional quality and environmental pollution: MENA countries versus the rest of the world

Using data for over 100 nations over the years 2004–2007, this study examines the effect, of institutional quality on environmental pollution, focusing primarily on influences of corruption, and the shadow economy, and paying special attention to MENA countries. Controlling for a, number of factors, results show that both more corrupt nations and nations with large shadow sectors have qualitatively and quantitatively similar effects in yielding fewer (recorded) emissions; however, MENA nations have higher pollution rates. Policy implications are noted.     

Indonesian healthy living intentions: Segmentation study insights

Obesity is a global epidemic. The very rapid growth rates of obesity prevalence observed in developing countries is alarming. Segmentation is under applied in social marketing and, when it is applied, it is based primarily on demographic data in samples drawn from developed nations. The current study adopts psychographic segmentation to understand lifestyle attitudes and intentions towards exercise and weight loss among an Indonesian sample. TwoStep cluster analysis (n = 499) identified 4 distinct segments (At risk, Conscious healthy, Overweight, and Tryers). The results of this study demonstrate that different groups exist in the larger population and that consideration of these groups may assist social marketers in creating service/intervention offerings that meet the needs of a broader range of people in the market, thus extending penetration of campaigns that address obesity.     

The international importance of low tax rates1

G-7 economies raised tax rates in the 1990s, unlike the 1980s. Yet many developing nations continued to bring their highest tax rates down. Economic growth among 19 countries with low or falling tax rates averaged 5.8% a year from 1990 to 1996, up from 4.5% in the preceding decade. At the same time, annual GDP growth among G-7 countries slowed to 1.7%, down from 2.9%.     

The impact of state power on economic growth rates in OECD countries

Inspired by public choice theories — in particular the work of Bernholz, Downs, Olson and Tullock — two propositions are advanced. First, the older a democracy is, the slower its growth rates should become. Second, the higher the social security spending is, the slower economic growth rates should become. Pooled regression analysis and the growth experience of 19 OECD nations between 1960 and 1985 allow for an empirical test. Unfortunately, results very much depend on a technical issue, i.e., on the inclusion or exclusion of period and country dummy variables. It is argued that inclusion of the dummies is misleading. If you accept these arguments, then the propositions linking age of democracy or social security transfers on the one hand and lower economic growth rates on the other hand are confirmed.     

A Bayesian analysis of suicide data

The identification of change points in a sequence of suicide rates is one of the fundamental aspects of Durkheim’s theory. The specification of a statistical standard suitable for this purpose is the main condition for making inferences about the causes of suicide with distinctive trends of persistency and variability just as Durkheim theorized. At present, the statistical ‘strategy’ employed by the French social scientist is too ‘rudimentary’. A hundred years later, I take the opportunity to test Durkheim’s theory through modern methodological instruments, specifically the Bayesian change-point analysis. First of all, I analyzed the same suicide data which Durkheim took into consideration. Change-point analysis corroborates the Durkheimian analysis revealing the same change-points identified by the author. Secondly, I analyzed Italian suicide rates from 1864 to 2005. The change-point analysis was very useful. Durkheim’s theory ‘works’ until 1961: suicides rates increased as industrial development increased. However, after 1961 and the economic boom, they declined, and when they began increasing again, after 1984, they did not reach the same level as before. This finding obliges us to ‘adjust’ the Durkheim’s theory giving space to Halbwach’s convergence law. Therefore, as high economic and social development levels are attained, suicide rates tend to level-off: People adapt to the stress of modernization associated to low social integration levels. Although we are more ‘egoist’, individualism does not destroy identity and the sense of life as Durkheim had maintained.     

National Values and Economic Growth

A bstract    Using data on economic values and attitudes for various nations from the World Value Study, I show that the strength of values associated with market success does not appear to have a significant impact on the rate of economic growth in a sample of developing and developed market economies. I also show that such values do not seem related to the economic system and have an ambiguous relation to the overall level of economic development. These negative results suggest that, contrary to common belief, knowledge about such values does not seem very useful in helping us understand economic growth or differences in levels of economic development or economic systems in various countries.     

Item-fit evaluation in biased tests: a study under Rasch model

In this paper, the power rates and distributional properties of the Outfit, Infit, Lz, ECI2z and ECI4z statistics when they are used in tests with biased or differential item functioning (DIF) were explored. In this study, different conditions of sample size, sample size ratio focal and reference group, impact between groups, DIF effect size, and percentage of DIF items were manipulated. In addition, examinee responses were generated to simulate uniform DIF. Results suggest that item fit statistics generally detected medium percents of DIF in large samples (1000/500 or 1000/1000) only when DIF effect size was relatively high and when the mean of focal and reference group was different. Moreover, when groups had equal mean, low correct identification rates were found in the five item-fit indices. In general, the results showed adequate control of false positive rates. These findings lead to the conclusion that all indices used in this study are partially adequate fit measures for detecting biased items, mainly when impact between groups is present and sample size is large.     

Efficient minimum distance estimation with multiple rates of convergence

This paper extends the asymptotic theory of GMM inference to allow sample counterparts of the estimating equations to converge at (multiple) rates, different from the usual square-root of the sample size. In this setting, we provide consistent estimation of the structural parameters. In addition, we define a convenient rotation in the parameter space (or reparametrization) to disentangle the different rates of convergence. More precisely, we identify special linear combinations of the structural parameters associated with a specific rate of convergence. Finally, we demonstrate the validity of usual inference procedures, like the overidentification test and Wald test, with standard formulas. It is important to stress that both estimation and testing work without requiring the knowledge of the various rates. However, the assessment of these rates is crucial for (asymptotic) power considerations.Possible applications include econometric problems with two dimensions of asymptotics, due to trimming, tail estimation, infill asymptotic, social interactions, kernel smoothing or any kind of regularization.     

Using mixed methods for the analysis of individuals: a review of necessary and sufficient conditions and an application to welfare state attitudes

When studying individuals, when is the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods better than just one method alone? Whereas the debate in macro-level research, such as in political science about comparing nations, has made progress in identifying meaningful logics for a combination of methods, it is yet unclear how these logics can be applied to the study of individuals. Individual-level dynamics are in tendency less inert than those of nations or organisations. Therefore, a combination of methods is more difficult to justify in individual-level analysis since differences in measurement results could be due to changes in the dynamics rather than due to the application of different techniques. In contrast, the assumption of unit homogeneity seems to be more easily met for individuals than for countries or other higher-level aggregates, facilitating a comparison of like and like. First, this article presents a compilation of conditions scattered across the literature for the analysis of individuals, according to which a mixed-method is preferable to a single-method approach. Second, the application of these conditions is illustrated with an analysis of the impact of intergenerational relationships on welfare state attitudes in Germany on the basis of survey and focus group data.     

Inadequacy of nation-based and VaR-based safety nets in the European Union

Considered as a social contract, a financial safety net imposes duties and confers rights on different sectors of the economy. Within a nation, elements of incompleteness inherent in this contract generate principal-agent conflicts that are mitigated by formal agreements, norms, laws, and the principle of democratic accountability. Across nations, additional gaps emerge that are hard to bridge. This paper shows that nationalistic biases and leeway in principles used to measure value-at-risk and bank capital make it unlikely that the crisis-prevention and crisis-resolution schemes incorporated in Basel II and EU Directives could allocate losses imbedded in troubled institutions efficiently or fairly across member nations.     

Exponential rates for kernel density estimation under association

The estimation of density based on positive dependent samples has been studied recently with consistency and asymptotic normality results being obtained. In with regard to the characterization on decrease rates the results have been scarce. We prove two versions of an exponential inequality: one assuming stationarity and association alone and the other under a further assumption on the joint distributions of the sample. These inequalities are then used to prove exponential decrease rates for the kernel estimator of the density with a uniform version over compact sets. The conditions assumed impose convenient decrease rates on the covariance structure of the sample. Some examples supposing geometrical or polynomial decrease rates on the covariances that fulfill our assumptions are presented in the last section. Explicit almost sure rates are derived for geometrically decreasing covariances. Under the extra assumption on the joint distributions the rates are close to the best known ones for independent variables.     

透析价值观对跨文化传播的影响——以西方葡萄酒品牌渗透为例

不同民族之间的酒文化因民族的价值观不同而有所差异。笔者在比较我国的白酒文化与西方的葡萄酒文化所体现的价值现在权利距离与个人主义/集体主义2个维度方面的差异的基础上,分析西方的葡萄酒在我国的品牌渗透,并从跨文化传播角度加以详细分析。     

Deterring nuclear weapons proliferation

In the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the problem of nuclear proliferation has become one of the primary issues of strategic concern The proliferation problem is an old one, but the problem today is very different from that of even a few years ago. calling for new approaches. By considering demand and supply factors, the old approaches that rely on limits on the technology or supply appear inadequate in the current situation Rather, the best approaches today are those that influence demand, making it less attractive for nations to develop nuclear weapons. The constraints on the United States that inhibit it from using its nuclear weapons to threaten new nuclear states make both nuclear deterrence and guarantees to countries not acquiring such weapons ineffectual in preventing further proliferation. The use of conventional forces to prevent proliferation or to protect threatened nations may also be politically difficult unless there are clear national interests at stake.
A possible way out of this dilemma is to develop a system of conventional deterrence using precision guided munitions and other recent technological developments that have increased the accuracy of weapons delivery systems. Such a system of conventional deterrence could play an important role in making nuclear weapons of less perceived value to potentially proliferating nations and in protecting regions that these nations threaten.     

Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship

A bstract . While previous studies on the unemployment-crime hypothesis have yielded equivocal results, here nonsignificant Pearson correlation coefficients were found for theft rates and the percentage of unemployed men and unemployed women for 20 nations. This raises additional cross-cultural questions about the validity both of strain theories that predict positive correlations, and competing theories that predict negative correlations. Implications for research on the unemployment-crime hypothesis are discussed.     

Cross-national differences in cognitive style: implications for management

An important obstacle to productive working relationships between managers from different countries may be cross-cultural variations in cognitive style. This study examined the traditional dichotomy between the 'intuitive' East and the rational or 'analytic' West. A total of 394 managers from six nations and 360 management students from five nations completed the Cognitive Style Index, a self-report measure of the intuitive-analytic dimension. Reliability coefficients suggested that the properties of the instrument are broadly consistent across cultures. Comparison of mean scores showed that the most intuitive groups were located in the Anglo, North European and European Latin slices of Hickson and Pugh's 'culture cake', and the most analytic were in the Developing Countries and Arab categories. On the basis of these findings, it is argued that it may be more fruitful to classify nations in terms of their stage of industrial development rather than the hemisphere in which they are located. Ways of overcoming difficulties in encounters between managers from different cultures may include training in how to identify, respond to and change cognitive styles, and the selection of individuals or management teams whose styles are compatible with those of their foreign counterparts.     

Examining the international internet using multiple measures: new methods for measuring the communication base of globalized cyberspace

This article examines the network structure of the international internet using four different sources of data: (1) bilateral bandwidth between countries; (2) hyperlink connections among nations’ domain names; (3) structural equivalence of nations from the perspective of websites, measured by the percentage of specific websites’ traffic from individual countries; and (4) structural equivalence of nations from the national perspective, using the proportion of a country’s 100 most-visited websites shared with other countries. Results indicate that the international internet network appears to consist of series of small worlds determined by language, geography, and historical circumstances. Therefore, one cannot depict the internet only through an examination of the hyperlink connections among nations. There is a need for multiple indicators to accurately describe the global internet.     

中国大豆产业国际竞争力分析

本文介绍了中国大豆进出口现状以及通过国际竞争力评价指标体系说明中国大豆出口的竞争优势与劣势，综合中国大豆产业所存在的问题和所具有的优势，提出在WTO的规则下，中国应采取的对策。