The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets

This paper studies whether sentiment is rewarded with a significant risk premium in the European stock markets. We examine several sentiment proxies and identify the Economic Sentiment Indicator from the EU Commission as the most relevant sentiment proxy for our sample. The analysis is performed for the contemporaneous excess returns of EA-11 stock markets in the period from February 1999 to September 2015. We apply a conditional multi-beta pricing model in order to track the variation of the sentiment risk premium over time. The results demonstrate a positive significant relationship between sentiment and contemporaneous excess returns which is consistent with previous studies. The calculated sentiment risk premium is significant as well but negative implying that an investment in EA-11 countries over the examined time period – that is bearing sentiment risk – would have been unattractive to the investors on average.     

The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk: Some Synthetic Comments

International asset pricing requires to take into account currency risk. Equilibrium models of the international capital market show that risk premia should be associated with currency risks. This is supported by empirical evidence. This paper reviews the existing theoretical and empirical literature and discusses their practical implications.     

欧盟统一市场的间接税协调

间接税协调是欧盟统一市场在发展过程中的一个重要问题,其协调的重点是增值税与消费税。在协调过程中,各成员国基于自身利益所发生的争议以及由此所采取的抵制行为在很大程度上阻碍了间接税协调的进程。展望未来,欧盟间接税协调依然面临着许多难以克服的困难,协调的结果将主要取决于各成员国彼此之间能够做出多少妥协和让步。     

Exchange rate and inflation risk premia in the EMU

This paper tests the effects of exchange rate and inflation risk factors on asset pricing in the European Union (EU) stock markets. This investigation was motivated by the results of Vassalou [J. Int. Money Finance, 2000, 19, 433–470] showing that both exchange rate and foreign inflation are generally priced in equity returns, and it studies the opportunity of evaluating the causality between these sources of risk after the elimination of the EU currency risks because of the adoption of the single currency. Our results show that both exchange rate and inflation risks are significantly priced in the pre- and post-euro periods. Moreover, the sizes of exchange rate and inflation risk premiums are economically significant in the pre- and post-euro periods. Futhermore, the UK and excluding-UK inflation risk premiums explain, in part, our evidence concerning a large EUR/GBP exchange rate risk premium and the existence of an economically significant domestic non-diversifiable risk after euro adoption. Hence overlooking inflation risk factors can produce an under/overestimation of the currency premiums and a miscalculation of the degree of integration of stock markets.     

Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.     

欧盟税收管辖权的现状与趋势

欧盟有关税收问题的规定,约束了成员国的税收立法内容,并且已经超越成员国的独立税收管辖权,导致成员国税收管辖权部分转移,出现超越国家的税收管辖权现象。欧盟法律制度的主要目标之一就是消除统一市场的人为和制度障碍,促进共同市场内部的商品、劳动力、资本和服务流动。欧盟在处理与成员国之间的税收管辖权问题上已经取得了有益的进展,但是,税收管辖权由国家向国际组织行使的转变仍然任重道远。     

波动率风险及风险价格——来自中国A股市场的证据

本文应用Fama-Macbeth估计方法,以1997年2月至2009年6月中国A股股票为样本,考察股票市场波动率风险及其风险价格的特征。研究表明:波动率风险是一个显著的横截面定价因子,其风险价格为负,该结论不受流动性及市场偏度因子、待检资产改变、波动率模型设定的影响;在资产定价模型中引入波动率风险因子有利于解释规模效应和账面市值比效应异象。波动率的风险因子可以涵盖部分宏观经济变量的定价信息,规模因子是波动率风险因子的代理变量。     

Interest Rate Risk of European Financial Corporations

We investigate the interest rate exposure of large European financial corporations' equity returns. For the period from January 1982 to March 1995 we estimate multifactor index models to examine the sensitivity of equity returns to market index returns and domestic as well as global interest rate movements. In addition, we specify an APT‐model to test whether an exposure to interest rate movements is rewarded in the cross‐section of expected returns. In the four European markets both domestic and global interest rate shifts constitute driving forces of stock returns beyond the influence of the domestic market indices. However, the exposure to interest rate movements does not seem to be rewarded in the same fashion among the markets.     

The Value Added Tax on Electronic Commerce in the European Union

This paper concludes that any failure to apply value-added tax (VAT) to electronic commerce crossing borders between EU Member States and other countries should not affect the VAT liability of registered traders, even if the reverse charge rule (taxation in the hands of recipients) is not applied. The only type of e-commerce that is problematic involves sales of digital content to consumers and unregistered traders. However, such sales constitute a minuscule fraction of purchases by households and unregistered traders (given the extremely low level of small-business exemptions). Thus, while many believe that the question of how to tax e-commerce under the VAT is urgent, how it is resolved may not be very important.     

Income Inequality,Growth, and the Enlargement of the European Union

This study investigates the relation between income inequality and economic growth, namely, the Kuznets curve, in the context of EU enlargement. The results have implications regarding how the latest enlargement of the European Union affects the relationship between income inequality and growth, for both EU member countries and the European Union as a region. Estimation results show that there is no evidence of a significant original or reverse Kuznets curve for any of the groups of countries in this study. Therefore, empirical results suggest that the latest enlargement, and a possible future accession of the candidates, may not change the fact that a Kuznets curve does not exist for the European Union.     

欧洲银行联盟的设想、争论及前景

2012年以来,欧洲银行联盟作为欧洲应对欧债危机的重要举措被提出,并在几个月内取得显著进展,但目前,围绕欧洲银行联盟作用及相关制度设计还存在较多争论与分歧。文章详细回顾了欧洲银行联盟设想的细化与改进过程,以及各方对重大争议问题的相关看法,指出欧盟各国将会努力推动银行联盟建设,但由于涉及问题的复杂性和艰巨性,银行联盟建设只能分步进行,其长期作用有待观察。     

Factors influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign commercial banks in the European Union

Using bank level data this paper examines how bank's specific characteristics and the overall banking environment affect the profitability of commercial domestic and foreign banks operating in the 15 EU countries over the period 1995–2001. The results indicate that profitability of both domestic and foreign banks is affected not only by bank's specific characteristics but also by financial market structure and macroeconomic conditions. All the variables, with the exception of concentration in the case of domestic banks profits, are significant although their impact and relation with profits is not always the same for domestic and foreign banks.     

欧洲银行业联盟架构设计及建设进展

作为应对欧债危机的重要举措,2012年6月,欧盟委员会提出建立欧洲银行业联盟的设想。文章介绍了近一年多来欧洲银行业联盟的三大支柱——单一监管机制、单一处置机制和存款保险机制的架构设计和建设推进情况。目前,银行业单一监管机制建设已基本完成,欧央行发挥维护金融稳定的主导作用;对单一处置机制重要性的认识得到提升,但一些核心问题仍有待明确;存款保险机制建设仍可能保留在各国层面。     

Alcohol taxation and regulation in the European Union

This article surveys alcohol consumption, taxation and regulation in the European Union (EU). It uses the estimates of cost-of-illness studies to gauge the external costs of harmful alcohol use. In all but one member state, the costs exceed alcohol excise duty collections. An optimal alcohol excise is difficult to design, because the welfare gains from a reduction in socially costly heavy drinking must be balanced against the welfare loss from a fall in moderate drinking. This suggests that while an alcohol excise increase may be efficiency improving, complementary regulatory measures, which focus on specific problem groups, should be an important element of the policy package. A case can also be made for reducing wasteful cross-border shopping by raising the minimum duties on wine, beer and spirits, preferably in line with their relative alcohol content.      

论国际货币清算规则下的本币金融开放

与目前社会上普遍存在的认知不同,本文认为我国的金融对外开放早已启动,只不过是以外币开放的形式进行。根据货币的国际清算规则,这种以外币主导的金融开放,其结果只是使国内涉外领域中的货币错配现象日趋严重．迄今为止,也还没有任何一个发展中国家能够在外币主导的金融对外开放中获得成功。而以人民币开展跨境贸易结算所带来的本币金融对外开放则有实质性的不同,依据目前跨境贸易人民币结算的两种清算模式．人民币的对外开放,不仅降低了开放难度和货币错配风险,且对外风险可控,有利于金融市场自然形成对外开放和金融服务水平的提高。     

欧洲高收益债券市场违约风险监管研究

多年以来,欧洲一直是仅次于美国的世界第二大高收益债券市场。除了债券自身信用评级水平之外,欧洲高收益债券违约率的高低与市场监管力度以及宏观金融经济运行状况密切相关。欧洲监管当局把对高收益债券市场的监管重点放在:规范市场信息披露及信用评级标准和行为、保护投资者权益、保持交易行为的规范性和跨国界市场交易衔接处理等方面,这些监管策略的实施对控制市场违约风险起到了积极的作用。欧洲的监管经验对于今后我国高收益债券市场的尝试性推出也极具借鉴意义。     

Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?

We provide new evidence on the pricing of local risk factors in emerging stock markets. We investigate whether there is a significant local currency premium together with a domestic market risk premium in equity returns within a partial integration asset pricing model. Given previous evidence on currency risk, we conduct empirical tests in a conditional setting with time-varying prices of risk. Our main results support the hypothesis of a significant exchange risk premium related to the local currency risk. Exchange rate and domestic market risks are priced separately for our sample of seven emerging markets. The empirical evidence also suggests that although statistically significant, local currency risk is on average smaller than domestic market risk but it increases substantially during crises periods, when it can be almost as large as market risk. Disentangling these two factors is thus important in tests of international asset pricing for emerging markets.     

Debating Proposed Reforms of the Taxation of Corporate Income in the European Union

This paper reviews the European Commission's latest proposals (European Commission, 2002) for the co-ordination of corporation taxes within the EU. It provides a brief summary of the report, and then investigates the nature of the tax obstacles identified by the Commission, the conceptual basis of the location of taxation, and the relatively novel lack of attention to the integration of corporate and personal taxes.     

国际货币竞争格局演进中的人民币国际化前景

实证分析显示,未来20年国际货币竞争格局仍将保持基本稳定:国际储备领域维持美元第一、欧元第二、英镑第三,国际证券交易领域维持欧元第一、美元第二、英镑第三,最大的变化是人民币迅速崛起为第四大国际货币。这种演进态势与这一领域强大的惯性有关,但从根本上讲仍取决于影响国际货币占比的各种经济因素,比如国际经济、金融地位、汇率波动及实际利率等。我国国际金融地位低是制约人民币国际化进程的主要因素。因此,推进人民币国际化的关键在于进一步提高我国金融市场的广度、深度和开放度。