企业需求预测准确性存在的问题及其应对策略

需求预测在企业经营活动中具有重要作用,其影响因素具有多样性.可以通过优化需求预测方法、完善需求预测系统、改进需求预测管理,有效控制需求预测和未来市场情况的偏差,持续提高需求预测的准确性,从而促进企业生产、销售的良性运行.     

A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy*

Abstract. This research re-examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts through a comparison of their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), O'Brien (1990), and Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, Dyckman, and Lakonishok 1978; O'Brien 1988; Brown 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist. In our analysis, we control for the differences in recency of analysts' forecasts using two different approaches. First, we use an estimated generalized least squares estimation procedure that captures the recency-induced effects in the residuals of the model. Second, we use a matched-pair design whereby we measure the relative forecast accuracy of an analyst by comparing his/her forecast error to the forecast error of another randomly selected analyst making forecasts for the same firm in the same year on or around the same date. Using both approaches, we find that differential forecast accuracy does exist amongst analysts, especially in samples with minimum forecast horizons of five and 60 trading days. We show that these differences are not attributable to differences in the forecast issuance frequency of the financial analysts. In sum, after controlling for firm, year, forecast recency, and forecast issuance frequency of individual analysts, the analyst effect persists. To validate our findings, we examine whether the differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts persist in holdout periods. Analysts were assigned a “superior” (“inferior”) status for a firm-year in the estimation sample using percentile rankings on the distribution of absolute forecast errors for that firm-year. We use estimation samples of one- to four-year duration, and consider two different definitions of analyst forecast superiority. Analysts were classified as firm-specific “superior” if they maintained a “superior” status in every year of the estimation sample. Furthermore, they were classified as industry-specific “superior” if they were deemed firm-specific “superior” with respect to at least two firms and firm-specific “inferior” with respect to no firm in that industry. Using either definition, we find that analysts classified as “superior” in estimation samples generally remain superior in holdout periods. In contrast, we find that analysts identified as “inferior” in estimation samples do not remain inferior in holdout periods. Our results suggest that some analysts' earnings forecasts should be weighted higher than others when formulating composite earnings expectations. This suggestion is predicated on the assumption that capital markets distinguish between analysts who are ex ante superior, and that they utilize this information when formulating stock prices. Our study provides an ex ante framework for identifying those analysts who appear to be superior. When constructing weighted forecasts, a one-year estimation period should be used because we obtain the strongest results of persistence in this case.     

Forecast Accuracy and Consistent Preferences for the Timing of Information Arrival

We study a principal's choice of whether to produce an imperfect forecast about a firm's outcome either before or after an agent's effort choice. The early forecast affects the agent's effort choice, which means the forecast can also be used to infer information about the effect of the agent's effort on outcome. The late forecast is more accurate because, by working hard, the agent also learns about productivity, implying that the late forecast has an additional performance measurement role. With verifiable information, the principal prefers a late forecast when the agent's effect on the accuracy of the forecast is either large or small. The agent has consistent preferences when the agent's effect on the accuracy of the late forecast is not too large. With unverifiable information, the agent's information rents imply that the principal cannot use either forecast as a performance measure. Thus, the accuracy of the late forecast has no effect on the principal's preference. However, if the accuracy of the early forecast is low and its decision‐making function is diminished, the principal prefers a late signal.     

产权式酒店:把家安到酒店里

在投资日趋理智的今天,虽然每个人依旧怀揣着一夜暴富的梦想,但面临着高收益后面隐藏的高风险,人们不得不掂量如何理智开发握在手里的真金白银。萎靡不振的股市,限购、限贷的房子……想找一个稳、准、狠的投资项目,似乎有不小的难度。产权式酒店热潮的袭来,让许多投资者眼中不禁大发异光。源起产权式酒店于中国而言是一种舶来品,最早产生于20世纪60年代的欧洲。20世纪60年代的欧美发达国家逐步步入了丰裕社会,度假风气一度兴盛。法国地中海沿岸开发了大量的海滨别墅,一些欧美政要、贵族、富商蜂拥而至,一跃成为欧洲乃至世界的休闲度假中心。但是,人流大了,随之催生的便是物     

上海经济型酒店日渐红火

“锦江之星”、“如家快捷”、“莫泰168”、“宝隆居家”、“24K”、“速8”……一家家经济实用型酒店正在上海酒店地图上展现自己愈加绚丽的风姿。从1996年上海第一家经济型酒店锦江之星出现到2006年,短短十年间,仅仅上海一地就已经集合了包括外资品牌在内的经济型酒店近两百家。作为中国最大的经济城市和现代服务业的积聚商圈,上海无疑为经济型酒店的发展提供了非常良好的环境。     

高端酒店品牌的济南版图

济南的五星级酒店越来越多。按照1800年《国际辞典》所定义的：酒店是为大众准备住宿、饮食与服务的一种建筑或场所。但去酒店,显然不只睡觉吃饭那么简单,你还可以开会、办派对、会朋友、运动、做SPA、看HBO,甚至一个人待着。我们的生活越来越多的与酒店产生交集。吃饭、开会、喝咖啡、参加婚礼,     

2010年酒店业"血拼"

根据上海旅游委公布的数据,参加2010年世博会的总人次将超过7000万。同时,上海国内旅游近年一直呈增长趋势,预计今年将接待国内游客1亿人次。面对如此巨大的市场,“丽晶”：“速8”等国际经济型酒店品牌纷纷选址上海,洲际、雅高、凯悦、希尔顿、香格里拉、万丽、万豪等在沪已有一定规模的大型酒店集团则正在筹划大举扩张。2010年世博会的巨大市场机会,星级酒店和经济型酒店都纷纷抢滩上海,     

日本大城市地区的“都市农业”

农业结构的优化是由多种因素决定的,首先是受自然因素制约,其次受市场需求和农业生产效率等的影响,日本大城市地区农业受加入WTO的影响,农产品逐步开放,农产品市场供求关系发生了变化,产量低,高成本的农产品被逐步淘汰,而城市文化经济高度发展,人们追求食品安全,卫生,新鲜,即食品的绿色和保健功能,促进了绿色和保健农产品生产,也引发日本大城市地区农业产业结构的调整。     

饭店英语对西方文化的诠释

饭店英语强调语言应用能力与酒店专业知识的有机结合，具有很强的针对性和应用性。然而．如何在饭店英语中融入文化因素，有效地诠释西方文化，使学生在今后的饭店管理工作中能够自如地运用饭店专业及英语知识，是值得深入探讨的问题。     

Labor market in the Mari El Republic

The article deals with the problem of transforming the labor market in the Mari El Republic. A model for forecasting the population’s employment has been proposed and forecasting calculations of regional labor-market indicators have been carried out. Ways to achieve a balance of supply and demand of labor in the current economic conditions have been outlined.     

论武汉城市圈的产业联动

当前,城市圈内部不同城市间的产业联动已成为影响区域经济发展的关键因素。本文对武汉城市圈产业联动的基础进行了分析,研究了城市圈产业联动的模式。分析表明,武汉城市圈产业联动具备了一定基础,且存在资金联结型、优势互补型、产业转移型、产业链延伸型和总部经济型产业联动模式。应进一步加强政府合作、产业错位发展、培育企业集团、壮大产业集群、强化总部效应等,推动城市圈产业联动发展。     

金融地应多种所有制共同发展

我国现在的银行结构是不合理的 对于金融业应当是国有经济为主导,多种所有制共同发展的意见,我已经提过多次了.但是,民间金融业长期以来实际上是个禁区.直到2002年1月,国务院办公厅转发国家计委关于<"十五"期间加快发展服务业若干政策的意见>中,才明确提出:"在国有经济比重较高的对外贸易、公用事业、金融、保险等行业要逐步放宽对非国有经济的准入限制和扩大开放."这才对中国金融业要对内开放提供了政策基础.但现在还未落实.     

Sector structure in an open economy

Zusammenfassung Sektorale Struktur einer offenen Volkswirtschaft. — In einem Zwei-L?nder-Zwei-Sektoren-Modell wird untersucht, wie die sektorale Struk-tur des Inlands durch sektorale Ver?nderungen im Ausland bei flexiblen und bei festen Wechselkursen beeinfluβt wird. Das Modell zeigt, wie sich der flexible Wechsel-kurs anpassen muβ, um sektorale ?nderungen von einem Land in das andere zu übertragen, wenn die Importnachfrage im Inland elastisch und wenn sie unelastisch ist. Im Falle unelastischer Nachfrage kann — selbst wenn die Robinson-Bedingung gilt — statt einer Aufwertung eine Abwertung eintreten, mit interessanten Folge-rungen. Das Modell deutet an, daβ feste Wechselkurse sektorale Ver?nderungen in die falsche Richtung anregen und dadurch zu Zahlungsbilanzproblemen führen. Da die Zahlungsbilanzprobleme gegebenenfalls durch Wechselkursanpassungen und durch unverzerrte Preissignale gel?st werden müssen, erfordert die Politik fester Wechselkurse eine gr?βere Reallokation von Ressourcen. Da diese auf kurze Sicht immobil sind, erweisen sich feste Wechselkurse als eine der Ursachen für strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit.

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Résumé La structure de secteur dans une économie ouverte. — Nous dis-cutons dans un modèle de deux-pays-deux-secteurs comment la structure sectorielle dans le pays d’origine est effectuée par des changes sectoriels à l’étranger sous un système des taux des changes flexibles et fixes. Le modèle démontre comment le taux de change flexible doit s’ajuster pour transferer le change sectoriel d’un pays à l’autre si la démande d’importation du pays d’origine soit élastique ou non-élastique. En cas non élastique même sous la condition de Robinson une dévaluation devrait se passer au lieu d’une révalorisation avec des implications intéressantes. Le modèle indique que les taux de change fixes stimulent des changes sectoriels en direction fausse en conduisant aux problèmes de balance de commerce extérieur. Parce qu’on doit résoudre les problèmes de balance de commerce extérieur éventuellement en ajustant le taux de change et en donnant des signals des prix pas déformés, la poli-tique de taux de change fixes a besoin d’une quantité plus grande des ressources qu’on doit rédistribuer. Comme les ressources sont immobiles en court terme les taux de change fixes sont une cause implicite du ch?mage structurel.

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Resumen Estructura sectorial en una economía abierta. — En un modelo de dos países con dos sectores se discute cómo la estructura sectorial de un país es afectada por cambios sectoriales en el exterior bajo un sistema con tasas de cambio flexibles y variables. E1 modelo muestra cómo la tasa de cambio flexible debe ajus-tarse para transferir cambios sectoriales de un país a otro, si la demanda por im-portaciones del país considerado es elástica o inelàstica. En el caso de demanda elástica, incluso cuando la condición de Robinson es válida, puede ocurrir una devaluación con implicaciones interessantes en vez de una revaluatión. E1 modelo indica que tasas de cambio fijas estimulan cambios sectoriales en la dirección equi-vocada llevando a problemas de balanza de pagos. Debido a que los problemas de balanza comercial deberán ser resueltos eventualmente por medio de un ajuste de la tasa de cambio y la impositión de precios guías no destorcionados, la política de tasas de cambio fijas hace necesaria la realocación de una mayor cantidad de recursos. Debido a que los recursos son inmóviles en el corto plazo, las tasas de cambio fijas son una de las causas subyacentes a un desempleo estructural.

     

Challenges and opportunities in El Salvador's financial sector

The formal financial sector has expanded rapidly in postwar El Salvador, encouraged by premature financial liberalization and a remittance windfall, exceeding commercial banks' capacities to lend prudently. The counterpart of this spurious financial deepening is a shallow financial market for smaller firms, which reflects both difficult real conditions for small urban and agricultural enterprises, and the unfortunate effects of the credit-channeling model characterizing development banks and most nongovernment organization projects. This model discourages the growth of small-scale institutions that can fund themselves from local resources, and limits the ability of small producers to accumulate financial savings.     

发展上海都市型工业对策

都市型工业指的是依托大都市独特的资金流、商品流、人才流等社会资源,以产品设计、技术开发和加工制造为主,以都市型工业园区为基本载体,能够在市中心区域生存和发展、与城市功能和生态环境相协调的有就业、有税收、有环保、有形象的现代绿色工业。近年来,上海市以都市型工业园区和楼宇为重点的都市型工业建设取得了重大的发展。目前,全市9个中心区已完成改建、新建都市型工业园区(楼宇)150多万平方米,引进电子产品加工、     

太原都市区人口空间分布及演变特征分析

基于土地利用数据和NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据构建人口网格化空间模型,并采用人口分布结构指数和空间自相关模型探究2010-2017年太原都市区的人口分布特征及演变趋势。研究发现：①太原都市区人口集中于中、南部地区,且沿汾河两岸分布,2010-2017年都市区的两个核心间联系大大加强;②2010-2017年,太原都市区人口分布趋于分散不均衡态势有所减弱;③太原都市区人口空间分布具有显著的空间自相关性。